The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
Bushfire Bill.
I enjoy your posts I have been reading for several years now and hope all goes really well for you. Best wishes.
Bushfire Bill @ #991 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Wow! That comes as a shock to me. From the time of first seeing the eye doctor to having the first operation was 2 weeks. The second operation was another 2 weeks after that, so between the first visit to being all fixed was done within the space of a month.
Now I know there’s a difference between where we’re both located (you regional NSW, me metro Perth) but that really surprises me. Plus as I stated earlier you seem to have had issues with pain in your eyes, where I just had fading vision, however if I’d been told that I had to wait for a year for what amounts to crucial surgery, I probably would’ve done the same as you.
Or maybe it’s indicative of how bad the incumbent government has allowed the public system to become from the time I had my ops (Mid January- mid February 2016) to now.
Anyway, whatever the reason, I will add my voice to that of other Bludgers and hope everything works out for the best for you in the end.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:04 pm
“Speaking of the rise of the weirdo, how’s this for a concatenation of crazies? Mark Latham, Muslim and Christian zealots!”
Wholly powerful but confusing uprising led by the King of Stupid there C@tmomma!
Briefly if you are still reading – pull your self together man! What has taken hold of you. You were once the eternal optimist now you’ve become one of the biggest negative-vibe merchants on the site.
I was born in 1978, in my lifetime there have only been two occasions where the ALP swept the Tories from power. Hawke in 83 (which I don’t remember) and Rudd in 07. We are two weeks away from the third. Its a generational experience… literally.
Two weeks out, ALP have been consistently in front. The first two weeks of the campaign the Libs unloaded all their shots and the polls barely moved. Labor now controls the narrative (have you noticed what we are all now talking about) and has a story to tell. Blowhard blew his load early and has no shots left, the media are catching on too. Its a question of by how much at this stage. If the ALP can open the flood gates it could be big. Chin up laddie and get back out there and be part of history!
ICANCU @ #1003 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 11:10 pm
I laughed out loud at the, ‘I’m not religious myself but I feel your pain’ from Latham. Once a politician, always a politician.
Kimberley Kitchen tweet re. the Weichat fake news story. Claims the perp was connected to the Libs…. will they ever learn….
https://twitter.com/kimbakit/status/1125713020435423232?s=21
C@tmomma says
Any luck they won’t go back to the first issue.
That would be progress.
As Billy sang;
“If you stick around,
I’m sure we can find
some common ground.” 🙂
What was the controvert in the Torygraph about Shorten’s mum? I knew her. She was my tutor at Monash. A lovely woman.
Kimberley Kitching knows all about dirty tricks. A couple of years ago her husband was charged with vandalising Greens and Liberal polling material. The geniuses were caught on tape.
Andrew Landeryou and two other factional allies of Mr Shorten will appear in Melbourne Magistrates Court on February 15 on five charges of theft and five of criminal damage.
Mr Landeryou, an ex-bankrupt and notorious former blogger, is the son of a former state Labor MP and is married to new Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/close-shorten-allies-on-multiple-criminal-charges-for-alleged-vandalism-spree-20161228-gtisp6.html
I bet Kevin Rudd is giving the Chinese-Australian Tories on WeChat 7 different shades of hell! In Mandarin and Cantonese! 😆
Nath, when have Labor ever got 55TPP? Even in the Ruddslide it barely got over 52.
Curtin got 58.2 in 1943. Hawke got 53.2. I think they’d get above Hawke with a popular leader.
Hmm Curtin was a long, long time ago.
@clem atlee,
The best results I can find are:
1943 Australian federal election Labor TPP 58.2%
1946 Australian federal election Labor TPP 54.1%
1983 Australian federal election Labor TPP 53.2%
It’s sad that a tinpot little right-wing nationalist outfit like One Nation receives heaps of free media coverage resulting in 6 percent support in national opinion polls whereas a left-wing populist party like the Australian Workers’ Party or the Pirate Party gets zero free media and consequently zero support.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:23 pm
I bet Kevin Rudd is giving the Chinese-Australian Tories on WeChat 7 different shades of hell! In Mandarin and Cantonese!
———————————————
Mandarin and Cantonese generally have the same characters but are pronounced differently. In Hong Kong they use the old traditional character system but on the Mainland and Singapore they use simplified characters.
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:40 pm
And during a World War. 😆
clem attlee
says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:40 pm
Hmm Curtin was a long, long time ago.
____________________
Well the DLP disrupted the political landscape. The ‘Ruddslide’ was against a ‘past it’ but still relatively competent government. Shorten is up against a rabble. This should be a reverse 2013 election. Abbott got 53.50. And he was not that popular.
Barney in Phan Thiet
says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:42 pm
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:40 pm
Hmm Curtin was a long, long time ago.
And during a World War.
____________________
So was the 1940 election when Curtin won with 50.30!
Chifley won in 46 with 54.10 and the war was over.
Interesting commentary here.
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-13-election-weekly-survey-3/
Saying Labor with a chance at 3 senators in NSW, Vic, WA and Tas. Queensland possible last place to Lyle Shelton or Malcolm Roberts!
Lol, these Christian zealots just can’t make up their minds. One minute they don’t want Muslim Immigration, nek minute they are finding common cause with them…
The Pentecostal Christians despise both Muslims AND Jews, but are prepared to use them as stepping stones to Heaven. Then they’re discarded as blasphemers, pagans or whatever.
The Jews’ and Muslims’ crime is especially heinous in the eyes of the Fundies: being members of Abrahamic faiths, they had a chance to accept Christ, but rejected Him. There is no fire or brimstone as hot as the righteous wrath of a Happy Clapper.
Speaking of Happy Clappers, the ability to be absolutely sure of the rightness of their actions is essential to salvation, and the acts required to precede it here on Earth.
Morrison’s mania for being The Leader, for the captain’s calls and for being the bringer of political bread to his followers is a case in point. The smirk, the Wall Of Sound, the Space Invasion are all borne out of his supreme sense of himself as the smartest and most deserving guy in the room. Everything is about him.
This has gotten him into serious trouble before, and will again, hopefully before the election.
His adherence to the Prosperity Gospel (God shows he loves you by making you rich) segues over to his obsession with promoting personal wealth as his political key to everything. If only we can achieve tax cuts, we can then do what we like with the money, as God intended.
If he gets into Shorten’s past tomorrow night then Shorten should ask why he was sacked from both Tourism NZ and Australia. He should ask how he wangled the political assassinations of Towke back in Cronulla days, then Abbott, then Turnbull in Canberra. There are plenty of “questions to answer” from ScoMo’s past. The answers do not reveal ScoMo to be a pleasant man to associate with.
How many properties does he own? Why does he still have a mortgage, on his salary? Just how much does Jesus really “love” Scott Morrison?
How much does his religion “guide” his judgement in temporal matters?
Nath – I’ll alert the authorities. You’re clearly breaching your absolutely necessary restraining order.
Just been having a look at Bludgertrack and I note that the range of WB’s calculated TPP figures from each poll has tightened considerably. A few months ago the was a typical spread of maybe 2.5% TPP at any given time, with the BT trend line running through the middle. Since the campaign started, though, that spread is small enough to be difficult to accurately estimate off the graph as all the pollsters zero in on high 51/low 48 to the ALP, and converge with the BT trend line.
The question, of course, is whether this means that they are all becoming what will be an accurate reflection of the TPP at the election? Of course, we won’t know for another 11 days or so, but, IIRC, BT has a fairly good record over the last couple of elections.
If this *is* an accurate reflection of the state of play, it indicates that there *is* a slow drift back to the forces of darkness. However, the drift is too slow to do Scotty much good. Labor has lost 0.1% TPP over the past week. Even a little acceleration of the trend (and there’s no evidence of this at the mo) would only see another 0.2% drop by election day, leaving 51.6% TPP, which should be enough for government with more than a razor thin majority.
Then, of course, there’s the Senate….
I prepolled today, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a bunch of fascist ratbags and anti-science nutters as were on the Senate ballot paper. Quite a few dilemmas as to who to put last, as a confirmed BTL voter. Hell, even on the Reps paper, after the first 3 it was hard to know who was worse than who.
nath,
It seems you’re desperately searching for some metric where you can justify to yourself that Shorten isn’t doing bloody well.
It really is quite pathetic! 🙂
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery
says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:52 pm
nath,
It seems you’re desperately searching for some metric where you can justify to yourself that Shorten isn’t doing bloody well.
It really is quite pathetic!
____________________________
It’s all there in black and white, clear as crystal.
nath says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:53 pm
What, your pathetic, petty crusade?
Yes, we know.
We see it everyday.
“It’s all there in black and white, clear as crystal.”
Yes, that’s right, you’re really fkn sad
11 days out from a glorious electoral triumph for progressive Australia and you are desperately trolling ant-Labor
What, your pathetic, petty crusade?
____________________
I’ve largely said what I wanted to say on shorten, the AWU dodgy deals, the snot eating, knife wielding stuff. I generally leave that in the past. I am just commenting on polls. I see that PvO had an article on how Shorten was a ‘drag on the ALP vote’. Why not harass him?
We have been told Shorten isnt liked for 6 years in all the media, but always seems to out do expectations at elections it would seem.
nath doesn’t bring anything new to the conversation, it is super boring.
You would fit in well at any of the the Murdoch papers, where they constantly shit on Shorten and pump up the conservatives.
Nicko
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 12:09 am
We have been told Shorten isnt liked for 6 years in all the media, but always seems to out do expectations at elections it would seem.
nath doesn’t bring anything new to the conversation, it is super boring.
______________________________
If lack of originality was a bar to commenting here I wouldn’t be the first to go. I’m sure.
max @ #918 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:35 pm
I have not seen that GoT episode, so I am busy forgetting that post. I was reluctant to bring up the subject of spoilers, as Nicholas meant well.
d-money @ #947 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 9:26 pm
Yeah, but she is a bit late to the parade. Where was all this reporting on The Rabble when it was needed?
nath says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 12:04 am
Because he’s rational and not fixated like you.
Roger Miller says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 11:48 pm
“Interesting commentary here.
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-13-election-weekly-survey-3/
Saying Labor with a chance at 3 senators in NSW, Vic, WA and Tas. Queensland possible last place to Lyle Shelton or Malcolm Roberts!”
Another interesting comment from the same report
“The top two contenders for the final [Queensland Senate] spot (presuming Susan McDonald is elected) are Australian Conservative’s Lyle Shelton and PHON’s Malcolm Roberts. KAP are a few points behind them, Fraser Anning on single digits, and Clive Palmer on barely there.”
If true then Clive will not be gracing the Senate with his presence.
Happy with that.
Happy that Adolf Anning will likely fall as well.
Not so happy with the other candidates for the last spot.
The other big ALP win was 1929.
The ALP managed 49.1% primary, with 6 of their safest seats uncontested (to only 3 uncontested Country Party seats, lowering the ALP primary vote proportion and overall in a House of Reps of only 75 seats) and the ALP not contesting several other seats where the contest was between Nationalists and independent ex-Nationalists who had voted against the government triggering an early election. Had the ALP run in all seats and all seats been contested, the ALP would have won a majority of the primary vote and additional preferences as well.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1929/1929reps1.txt
Interesting stat from the comments section of the voters choice survey on who had already voted.
So, Green voters seem to be the quickest out of the gate, while Coalition voters the slowest.
Labor are matching their overall support.
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-13-election-weekly-survey-3/
Is the voterchoice panel self selecting? Their commentary doesn’t really fill me with a lot of confidence.
ltep says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 1:41 am
Not sure, but the trends give an interesting idea of the movements.
The early voting data to me is the most significant detail, as it’s the first indication I’ve seen of who is voting early. 🙂
Thank you – yes it’s an interesting set of figures.
Interesting the observation of how easily the older Green voter could be bought by Palmer.
Voterchoice does not seem to be self selecting. The pollster chooses from a panel. If she is right the libs are in a world of pain. I’d love to know what William thinks.
PS, the present conclusions of voterchoice seem very reasonable to me – about 55 – 45
I also thought it interesting that 13% of Labor voters preferred ScomMo as PM over Shorten (the same % as the Greens), and 7% of LNP voters preferred Shorten over ScoMo..
How do people logically make these choices. Perhaps it suggests that a reasonable proportion of Labor voters don’t like Bill but will vote for Labor policies, and a few LNP voters the other way (ex Turnbull or Mr Potato followers who blame him in part).
Perhaps it is these groups that are more likely to switch voting intentions before polling day.
New thread.
I was surprised (and disappointed) to note that Bludgertrack is now showing Boothby as a good chance of a Liberal retain.
This seems to be based on a baseline swing to Labor of only 0.8% in SA, offset in Boothby by a positive 0.5% “sophomore* effect” for Nicole Flint – giving her a projected 52.6% TPP.
(* NB – I hate these American terms!)
I would love to know where the 0.8% comes from (WB?). I presume some unpublished state data.
Nicole Flint replaced Andrew Southcott at the last election, who had been known locally as the “invisible politician”. It could well be that she got some benefit from replacing a deadweight incumbent (rather than losing a personal following) – so I am not sure this election will see a benefit.
Also what isn’t factored in is the fact that she was first to sign the petition for no confidence in Turnbull, is now seen as a RWNJ (which wasn’t well known in 2016) and has faced a vigorous “Get up” campaign this time as a result.
I know the Libs have poured lots of resources into Boothby over this campaign.
Hopefully she goes.
PaulTu.
Isn’t “sophomore” just a pompous way of saying “first-term”?
Sophomore is second year
The Abbott/ Turnbull/ScoMo Government wins international acclaim
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/canberra-inaction-on-climate-change-appallling/11088336?pfmredir=sm
Deleted and posted on new thread
Actually you raise a great point about ‘dragons’, Nath. They are referenced all over Europe and Northern Asia and even Australian Indigenous myths feature massive Rainbow Serpents.
The condundrum is that we know about dinosaurs and fossils now but no one did thousands of years ago. There were also no written records and, furthermore, there was no apparent point in time when dinosaurs co-existed with humans… certainly no chance of an oral tradition.
So it is quite the condundrum. Ancient cultures should not have had the foggiest clue about great lizards roaming the Earth… accept that they did… even some cave art depicts them.