The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
All the best with the recovery BB. I recently had to do “top and bottom” with the little camera. Family history dictates.
Anesthesiologist at my Thai hospital assured me I would wake in about 45 mins all done.
Found myself in a rather large amount of discomfort about 20 mins later with the camera dutifully inserted. Now I do know what it feels like to be taken by aliens.
Anyway after some moaning by me (not a pleasure moan BTW) she gave me some more of whatever and I awoke about 30 mins later.
She was most apologetic afterwards.
Good news all clear and no more examinations for 5 years.
All the best BB
clem says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 9:48 pm
I’d like to expand on that.
Did the Liberals make any major policy announcements in the last election campaign?
Their policy agenda from what I can see is basically the same as Turnbull’s and mainly consists of Abbott’s shit that they’ve never got through the Senate.
d-money
This is why when Morrison early in the campaign ‘challenged’ Shorten to another debate I joked that shorten should offer to debate him every night on national television. Maybe each night on a different broad policy area. Morrison’s well of ideas would run dry faster than the Darling River managed by Barnaby Joyce!
I love this line from Murphy:
This is what the election is about? Really? A bloke-off? In what universe? 😆
Which, from another perspective is very relevant to this election because the Liberal Party have very much become The Blokes Party, so, of course their leader wants the election to be a Bloke Off. However, that’s NOT what Labor are about. Labor are very pointedly about a balance of the sexes of the candidates for office and to add that to the MPs already there in order to get to a 50/50 ratio in parliament.
Though, the fact that Scott Morrison wants the election to be all about blokes and being blokey is entirely to be expected from a guy whose whole life has been built around his religion, and his religion built all around Blokes Uber Alles.
“Shorten may win, I think he will, but I also think he will just get over the line. This is due to his inherent unpopularity. A good leader would be looking at a 54 or 55 after the past 6 years. A narrow majority will make it that much harder next election. The ALP will pay for Shortens insistence that only he will be the leader and no one else.”
Whether a big win or a small win this time around the next one will be a biggun…as long as its a win which is certainly more likely than not
Shorten will be an excellent prime minister leading a high quality and highly disciplined Labor government
The next election will be between a more popular and certainly more respected Shorten with gravitas of office leading a good government that did what it said seeking re-election up against a divided rabble
This will be beyond the morally narcissistic vision of a Green fanboy but this is what will be. A shorten government that is progressive and popular seeking re-election. Do you think the Greens will be able to keep it together for another 6 years and still be a relevant minor force?
Cat
I look forward to the day when Morrison is the answer to a pub trivia question, and the punters say “Scott who?”
BB
Jimmy is kind. I went in a bit nervous, blood pressure was through the roof so instead of being 1st cab off the rank I was last but he was lovely. It was a weird experience all round.
The area is very well served with medicos. Only needs a change from Nats to Labor and it would be perfect .
I met Shorten and some of his team at a town hall meeting. He seems a nice bloke and his shadow cabinet members were ok. I enjoyed chatting with them.
Have never been invited to an L/NP public meeting so don’t know any of the mob who have been in charge for the last 6 years.
https://imgur.com/fFiJXJS
shiftaling
Now that is funny – and I can go to sleep with happy thoughts!
Bushfire Bill @ #943 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 7:51 pm
Holy fucking shit!!!
The cost of the operations for my eyes was nil. All covered under Medicare. I had to buy four sets of eye drops (2 for pre-op, 2 for post-op)that are on the PBS, so a total of $210 worth for which I paid a total of $33. Then the cost of the visits to the eye-doctor (one pre-op, then one each for each eye post-op). $70 per visit, with a refund of $56 per visit.
So, total cost of having two eyes operated on, eye-drops, and check ups by the eye doctor = $11 + $14 + $11 + $14 + $11 + $14 = $75 out of pocket expenses. Of course there was the Medicare Levy I’ve been paying most of my adult life, which I’ve got no idea how much that amounts to.
However, from what you’ve described it seems you have/had other issues besides cataracts themselves.
After everything was ticketty-boo I checked out what the cost (if any) would’ve been if I’d gone through the private system and had private health insurance.
It transpired that I would’ve paid no costs for the eye-drops or visits to the eye-doctor, but I would still have had to pay the Medicare Levy, plus PHI premiums, and then a minimum of $1500* for each operation (ie $3000).
* I checked across a range of Private Health Insurers to compare. $1,500 was the cheapest of the out of pocket expenses, the dearest was just shy of $5,000!!!! Per eye, so up to $10,000!!!! I’ve got no idea if those were the costs of just the operation, or whether the new lenses were an extra cost on top of that.
Roger
Peter Fitzsimmons was on TheDrum the other night and mentioned that, when writing a book on Beasley, Kym told him that Shorten would make a great Labor Prime Minister.
Had a freaky day today at pre-poll. Anti-Moslem nutcase getting far too much encouragement from a Liberal volunteer, then an MAS37 truther and Rod Culleton volunteers first encouraging the truther and then saying there was plenty the nutcase said they agreed with. That one tipped me over the edge so I offered some honest assessment of their views and wandered off.
An undischarged bankrupt found to be ineligible to serve in the senate being allowed on the ballot papers does seem to make a farce of things.
Briefly correct about the rise of right-wing candidates. Not just loons, seriously dangerous people. Labor needs to constantly call out the weasel-words of the Coalition on preferences.
This is the picture shiftaling linked to – “He’s my Prime Minister”
RR @10:01.
“The author sensed a disturbance in the force of Australian politics – that there was a nascent anti-immigrant anti-science anti-establishment movement in the offing, and it just needed some spark or person to set it alight”
The disendorsed candidate for Oxley was a useful idiot to the then gathering forces. It was John Howard who nursed the fire, added fuel and kept the fire going and building. Meanwhile, the former disendorsed candidate is now a useless idiot.
Steve777
I really must find the original piece – being 1994 it is probably not online.
BH, that’s certainly what I suspect
And to that end, his lack of personal popularity is actually a great asset. He is no Rudd, of course, but certainly there is no risk that he will turn in to a tyrant with a conviction that the only reason for his party’s victory was a deep love for him from the masses.
It will be an excellent (god willing) government elected on low expectations. I would suggest that would stand it in good stead given what it will be up against after the election
Rocket Rocket @ #956 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 10:09 pm
Yep. And may the trivia question be associated with Tony Jones quip last night on QandA, ‘Where the bloody hell are you, Scott Morrison!?!’ 😆
Dan G
Mine were both done with private insurance with small gap plus drops. 1st was $3,500 2nd $5,000. Our daughter paid 2 x $5,000 because she couldnt wait for the public system. I take it the lens are expensive
Rocket Rocket @ 9:53 pm
You will never hear a better reading of Yeats’s The Second Coming than this one by Liam Clancy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SIGPT9PyvU
Freaky, alright. Rod Culleton has volunteers?
Ad Man from Mad Men
Enough said
There are well respected people in the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party making things difficult for certain MP’s seeking re-election
This goes back to the decisions re nominations and those who sought the outcome which became the fact
So they look for certain spared preselection to be ousted by the Electorates they continue to contest
Such is the bitterness – indeed, the hate
Pedant
Thanks for that – amazingly I had never read or heard this poem before today that I can remember.
And yet I was familiar with all those three phrases from early in the poem
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
Maybe Morrison could surprise us all and use this as his opening line on Sunday!
Rockets, there has always been an anti-intellectual, ‘up-yours’ strain in our culture. We can see ignorance enjoying its own company, celebrating itself both its longevity and its offspring. It’s bullying and it’s opinionated. It’s a throwback to social and economic repression, I reckon.
I have the nagging feeling that things will only get worse from here on, considering the demographic, environmental, geo-political and geo-economic pressures we all face. We badly need leadership to respond to this. Instead there’s a plunge on the simpletons. We have to resist this.
Yes William. Two of them. Lobbed up for last hour with two corflutes and sat there holding them. It was all somewhat surreal.
Both Bracks and Andrews came to government as they did
And their next election victories were landslides
I have most certainly not blocked you, BB. ButI spent most of the day doing HTV handout and have missed your story of the eye op. I wish you all the best for the result.
Tinnitis. Its a real bastard!!
Observer
And I think some of them will quit the organisation after May 18th, disgusted as they are about process.
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 10:23 pm
“Meanwhile, the former disendorsed candidate is now a useless idiot.”
Not sure if anyone else heard PK interview Poorline on RN Drive tonight. Most probably switched off but I was stuck in traffic. Fascinating that she does not in any way comprehend the ALP policy on share dividend franking credits. Or was just telling fibs to her knuckle dragging boyfriends.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 9:57 pm
There can be many reasons deciding how a person votes.
A bigot won’t necessarily vote for a RWFW candidate, there may be other issues they rate higher than their bigotry.
They could just as easily give their first preference to Labor, Liberal or even the Greens.
The same goes when allocating preferences.
There are many different rulers you can use when measuring candidates.
The Liberals are reportedly seen as being homophobic and there is certainly an amount of evidence to give some validity to that and yet there are a number of gay Members in their Parliamentary team, so they obviously saw other elements of what the Party could offer them as more important.
Basically most/many people just aren’t as simple that. 🙂
That’s a good observation observer
Neither came in initially on a wave of enthusiasm, they both got in because people were sick of a Liberal government
BH @ #969 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:27 pm
I’ve no doubt they are. I wonder if there’s any difference in the quality of them between the ones that are covered under Medicare, and those offered under the private system. I can’t see (pun intended) that there would be.
Rocket Rocket @ 10.34pm
I was thinking that Yeats’s poem The Circus Animals’ Desertion, about loss of inspiration in old age, might be appropriate for this government. Especially the last verse:
“Those masterful images because complete
Grew in pure mind but out of what began?
A mound of refuse or the sweepings of a street,
Old kettles, old bottles, and a broken can,
Old iron, old bones, old rags, that raving slut
Who keeps the till. Now that my ladder’s gone
I must lie down where all the ladders start
In the foul rag and bone shop of the heart.”
Rocket Rocket
Bill certainly far outstrips Morrison when it comes to listening and responding to concerns. I saw him doing it at a town hall meeting in our area last election, and he duly impressed.
I was in touch with his staff about having a chance to chat to him about health stuff tomorrow, which I was quite looking forward to, but the caravan decided to turn eleswhere at the last minute, damn!
I think I’m correct in saying that since the demise of the DLP that the change of government election has always been the most impressive victory of each government in office. 72, 75, 83,96, 2007,2013. That seems to be the rule of modern federal elections.
Roger
t will be a very interesting 3 years if the Labor team get to govern. Shorten can get fired up at injustices but on the whole it should be a quieter governance. Boy o boy, how we need that.
OH is watching the New England candidates Pub inquisition on Sky. Paul Murray is an obnoxious sod but he’s pumping Barnaby and trying to make the Independent guy look stupid. Barnaby is reminding me of how good its been to have him off the campaign trail. It’s the same old rubbish – climate change is a farce, keep Liddell open, re open Hazelwood, blah, blah. The Pub mob love him tho
ICANCU
I was driving home when Pauline was on RN. I had to turn it off because I was shouting at the radio.
BB Best wishes for a good recovery
I have had reservations about leadership of the Greens pretty much since Bob Brown left. I was surprised at Richard DN’s performance with Leigh Sales tonight. He smashed the last 15 seconds and hit every hot button that makes me vote Green. Even showed some natural honest personality which is unfortunately being faked by the other leaders.
Roger Miller @ #985 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:45 pm
I can’t understand a bloody thing she says either. Problem with radio is there’s no option for subtitles.
Dan Gulberry, the waiting list for Medicare was 12 months. My right rye had deteriorated from -0.75 diopter correction in 2016, to -2.25 in March 2018, to -4.5 in March 2019, to -6.0 by April 2019. I was going blind in that eye, and would have been if I’d waited a year. Definitely I’d have had to stop driving, which is a social and retail death sentence up here (50k return trip to the supermarket in Forster from where we live).
So, having dodged private health premiums for 25 years (and saved probably $60,000 in the orocess), I withdrew $4k from “the funds” and took a wad of 50s down to Jimmy and Forster private and got the whole thing – from initial assessment to new lens – done in 6 weeks. Incidental expenses were a couple of hundred bucks for interim driving glasses, plus a similar Medicare cost for the same or similar drugs that you were prescribed.
Knowing (from what the opto etrist told me) that I was going to need the op, I booked both the specialist assessment and the surgical appointments on the same day, for a month apart, saving 8 weeks.
In the meantime we went on a holiday to NZ, made millions of sandflies very happy, and got to place a floral tribute and card on behalf of PB on the footpath out the front of the Christchurch mosque.
As far as costs are concerned, I reckon it cost me an extra $2k in return for a saving of about 1 year in time, compared to a private insurance job.
The other eye IS booked into the Medicare system, for April next year, 2020.
Rod Culleton has family. One of them is barely hanging on in the Senate. 🙂
The Black Wiggle was on 730 tonight?
Confessions @ #993 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 10:52 pm
Only the diehards cared.
Roger Miller says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 10:45 pm
“I was shouting at the radio”
I believe this is very common … I don’t get to let rip with the 4 letter descriptors at home or work very often and Poorline brings out the best in me.
Dab G
I don’t think there is any difference. We have friends who went through the public system and they are very happy with the result.
BB would probably know if there are a swag of lens makers but the 1st one I had done was made to take care of a weird curve in my eye. It wasn’t noticeable but affected my vision. The 2nd one was just darn exorbitant. I thought. Different specialist with very expensive tastes. Made you feel like a slug under his boot. I hope to never darken his doorstep again/
Kambah Mick, I hate tinnitus! And no cure except learning to ignore it!
Thanks again for all the good wishes PBers. I’m chuffed at the generosity of spirit.
Bushfire Bill @ #993 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 10:56 pm
Yes, I have pulsating tinnitus, a little disconcerting at times.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 10:50 pm
“Problem with radio is there’s no option for subtitles.”
haha . No but you must admit her tone certainly cuts through. It must be a frequency thing because it isn’t always what she is trying to enunciate – it is the way it sounds that is irritating.
Speaking of the rise of the weirdo, how’s this for a concatenation of crazies? Mark Latham, Muslim and Christian zealots!
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/christian-group-rally-with-muslims-targeting-godless-alp-ahead-of-election-20190506-p51kkh.html
Lol, these Christian zealots just can’t make up their minds. One minute they don’t want Muslim Immigration, nek minute they are finding common cause with them. 😆