Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Two new polls report Labor maintaining a lead on two-party preferred, but with minor parties making gains across the board from the majors.

The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.

It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.

We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.

Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 18 19 20 22
  1. “oh for a DD, Labor would be in control of both houses.”

    DD’s tend to elect more minor parties than two half Senates.

    The problem is the decision after the last half-Senate to allocate long and short terms by the traditional ‘order of election’ method rather than the ‘recount’ method.

  2. I am more of a keyboard warrior this election than a boots-on-the-ground person. I am trying to share the ALP policy page of the website, and especially their Animal Welfare Policy where people interested in that issue will see it. Many do not know of it and the ALP does not publicise it enough imo.

    I am hoping to shift some votes to the ALP.

  3. The goth pirate fool was somehow able to use a fleet of ships to ambush an airborne dragon. Even in a fantasy world there has to be some internal logic.

    He is a shallow character who seems to be there only to bring story lines to abrupt conclusions.

  4. White noise in the suburb often ‘covers’ it.

    My kids never shut up. That helps. After that, wine and or whiskey seems to dull it (doc reckons the opposite but wtf does he know?). And I go to sleep real quick so dont tend to lay awake thinking about it.

    They are trialing a new therapy in the UK. Apparently NHS will eventually cover it. Hoping it comes in here.

  5. Just saw a really good Labor attack ad here in Adelaide. Starts with the Morrison-Turnbull hug, then goes to Clive’s comments from the other day when he boasts about his wealth and couldn’t care what people think of him. Voiceover then says if you think the last three years have been chaos, you haven’t seen anything yet.

    Much more like it! I want more! Next I want to see ads questioning how the Liberals will pay for their $77 billion high income tax cuts.

  6. Nicholas
    Dragons are never defeated. They go into a kind of stasis until all is healed or regrown. They have very long memories.

  7. Cat it was Dany on the dragon ‘sorting’ the media – the Night King (destroyer of worlds)with Labor written on is NOT a great meme to be putting about……

  8. SK
    I remind myself of a novel by Chinua Achebe: ‘Things Fall Apart’… not because of what is in the novel but because of the title.
    I am accreting more and more infirmities, limitations, syndromes, aches and pains… my hands look like they have been made up for an Alien movie.
    Yet I am an extremely fortunate person. I have reached three score years and ten. I am still fit enough to do a 10 km bush walk without difficulty. I am developing technical skills and creativity at a faster rate than at any other time of my life.
    And that is before the marvellous richness of family and friends!

  9. SK

    ‘After that, wine and or whiskey seems to dull it (doc reckons the opposite but wtf does he know?).’

    Self medication is best when tailored exactly to personal needs.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #877 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:24 pm

    To cataract op veterans…
    ………………………………
    .

    All the best with the recovery.

    Back in my budgeting / forecasting modelling days, I did budget models for the Fred Hollows Foundation, and multiple Ramsey Healthcare hospitals.

    It caused me much wonderment to find out that the average cost of a Hollows cataract op was about $45, while the average patient charge in the private system was about $2,000, back then (2008). Hollows manufacture their own lenses in Nepal, and elsewhere.

    The current Medicare payment to the surgeon is $760.65, and his assistant, if required, $272.40.

  11. Nicholas! That sounds suspiciously like a significant spoiler…..I am Ok with them myself, but there are those who regard it as highly antisocial. I inadvertently mentioned something to my nephew a couple of years back that hinted at a GOT plot point in an episode he hadn’t seen. My nephew is normally very mild mannered, but he was almost apoplectic with me!

  12. “Re Mumble’s article in relation to Longman being in the mix, the Libs have been absent here which indicates they don’t feel they have any chance. Not even any letterbox drops. No waving folks in blue tea shirts. No posters or banners.”

    I think there might have been a bit of wishful thinking going on there.

    I posted earlier, I’m wondering how much of the “others” is actually people in the dozen or so conservative rural and blue blood seats that are intending on voting independents, including labor voters voting tactically

    You only need to look at Labor’s vote in these types of contests when a strong local moderate candidate runs. In 2013 Labor’s vote fell 16.5 points in Indi while the god awful Sophie Panopolous’s PV only fell 7 points. So Labor lost over double the PV votes of the Libs in the very clear process of an electorate bandying together to flush a tory turd the majority hated

    This election there is an onslaught of such independent candidates. The only analogous seat that is traditionally progressive with an peri-centrist type is Denison. I’m not aware of any other Labor seat with a strong independent candidate that might see Liberal / National voters switching tactically

    The upshot of this is that it works in the other direction to speculation that a higher flow than previously might be expected from PHON and UAP.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #853 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    “Okay, so I have just read the wiki about the Night King,

    https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Night_King

    whom my Millennial son informs me is the personage in the meme and it seems as though his personality is to bring death. So, it seems apposite that he brings death to the MSM who are down on Labor.

    I think I have it right. ”

    You clearly didn’t watch the end of that episode. …

    I am proud to say that I have never watched one episode of Game of Thrones in my life. I like being different. Also, it may have been due to the fact that my late husband, Sci Fi afficionado that he was, was not enamoured of George R.R. Martin’s Fantasy work. He much preferred his hard core science fiction. For example, ‘The Pear-Shaped Man’.

    Though, I must admit, George R.R. Martin does a great line in scaring the socks off you, no matter what genre he is writing in, Fantasy or Science Fiction.

  14. Thanks to all the well-wishers. I’m quite overwhelmed (and now I know who doesn’t block me!).

    As to the spesho, I think I am in good clinical hands.

    The anesthetic was interesting. You pay $500 for the privilege. It’s more like heavy sedation, actually. I’ve had “heavy sedation” previously, as well as a general anesthetic.

    My previous experience was that they are pretty much the same: one squeeze on the syringe and the next thing you know you’re back in recovery.

    But not this time.

    This time I was fully aware of everything going on around me. I could “see” my old lens disintegrate (it resembled a kaliedocope), I felt the new lens as it was inserted, and I was able to listen in on the surgeon as he gave instructions.

    All of this, except I was completely paralysed.

    Quite weird.

  15. Kate,
    Maybe the meme was meant to suggest that Labor would destroy the media world as we know it here in Australia, as represented by their symbols?

  16. I don’t Block you, BB. However, I came late to the well-wishing party and all the relevant stuff had already been said. Except for the fact that my mum’s specialist is in Foster too. 🙂

  17. – – I am still fit enough to do a 10 km bush walk without difficulty. —
    Aint that the crux. Exercise and nature. And family. Keeps the will; and where there is a will….

    For me the half ton is around the next bend. And I too feel very lucky. Normally it is when you sit back and feel like that that a sack of bricks smacks you in the head and makes you feel less lucky.

    I have posted this before. You made me do it again…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH6TJU0qWoY

  18. So, I was watching Masterchef tonight and all I saw was one ad related to the election, and that was from the Unions. Which is strange because normally the major parties bombard the popular TV shows with their ads.

  19. Cat it doesn’t end well for the Night King …… maybe not spread it about too much (love your work for Labor by the way)

  20. Briefly, thank for the response – been out all afternoon and evening.
    I speak to voters too, but in Grayndler, maybe I don’t exactly get a balanced representation!

  21. I’m going for ALP on 81 seats, will Wills going to Greens.
    I think its at least +4 for ALP in VIC, even with the above.

  22. A_E….if it’s any encouragement, today I doorknocked an SA1 with a candidate in the northern suburbs. Great candidate. Territory is 55/45 for Labor historically. I met not a single Lib-declaring voter. Not 1. I met 15-16 Labor declaring voters, all very amiable, all full of encouragement, all hoping to change the government and all yet to vote.

    But in the morning I saw bunches of Labor-hostiles at pre-poll, including plenty voting for Anning, Bernardi, ON and Palmer. The Libs were not doing too well. We did better then they did. The G’s did ok. But the Nasty Right were getting the movers. No doubt. Some would flash their HTV at the Labor folk as they entered the polling place, letting us know they were disrupting the game.

    This is a very mixed election. Just about anything is possible I think.

  23. Bushfire Bill
    Yep, Jimmy G, a thoroughly inscrutable gentleman. 8am the next day his rooms were full of one eyed warriors but I think we all walked out smiling – sunnies in place.

    We moved to Newie a month later and Jimmy referred me to the oh so posh Eye Factory (it truly is a factory) – they line them up and wheel the trolleys in and out of several operating rooms on the go at once – $5,000 every 10 mins there, all day. The bloke I had was very impressed with Jimmy’s work and rang him while I was there to tell him. Jimmy’s eye is better than the Newie one so I’m impressed with him too.

    You’re in good hands and I’m impressed with your ‘lens’ knowledge altho different to your Sydney work. It will be interesting for you. I only knew that I could read captions on the telly without glasses. Magic.
    (btw I’m a she)

  24. Katharine Murphy neatly sums up the problem of Morrison’s launch being all about him and Labor. No policies, no vision, no team, no Liberal Party even.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/the-fact-the-liberal-launch-wont-be-about-the-liberals-exposes-the-partys-emptiness

    So in other words, the 2019 Liberal launch will be about Labor. Let that sink in for a moment. Enough about me, more about you, but don’t worry everyone, we are good to govern for another three years.

    Just in case we missed the message, Morrison repeated it. “At the end of the day, it’s a choice between me and Bill Shorten. No one else”.

    This is what the election is about? Really? A bloke-off? In what universe?

  25. Mike Carlton

    @MikeCarlton01

    Even the astute ⁦@murpharoo⁩ runs this line that Shorten is “not popular” with the electorate. It’s become a tedious media meme. I’m not sure it’s true. Sure, he’s not Santa Claus or the Sugar Plum Fairy. But I detect more visceral dislike for SloMo.

    I think that Mike Carlton’s pretty astute himself.

  26. Confessions @ #928 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Or, desperate men do desperate things.

    Btw, I wouldn’t be getting the last PM to be booted out of his seat stumping for a former PM, who doesn’t want to suffer the same fate. 🙂

  27. briefly,
    I also got word from someone with connections in Queensland that Fraser Anning was doing better than we Southerners expected. 😯

  28. Kate @ #924 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 9:20 pm

    Cat it doesn’t end well for the Night King …… maybe not spread it about too much (love your work for Labor by the way)

    Okay, I’ll pass it on. And, thank you, as, at the moment I’m soldiering on with a Rotator Cuff injury. It makes hanging onto the HTVs a wee bit difficult. 🙂

  29. Matt
    Thanks for the news re the Palmer/Lib ad. I was hoping Labor would start showing something like that. We’re in a pretty safe Labor seat so don’t see any.

  30. Can anyone on here remember a single major policy announcement made by the Tories in this campaign so far? I sure can’t. Scum Mo seems to be putting all his faith in sitting in trucks and eating scones as far as I can tell.

  31. J341983 says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 1:44 pm
    @briefly – it’s sad to see you down.

    It’s a slog until the end, and nothing can be taken for granted.

    Cheers J.

    I agree, nothing can be taken for granted. Believe me, nothing is assumed and we’re fighting with everything available. The candidates are working tirelessly, as are the campaigners. Nothing is being given away.

    We all know it’s a struggle and the results carry great force. I’m very heartened by the efforts of the candidates, who are great examples.

    I was with a member of the WA Labor Admin Committee today. I think we register the same feelings of anxiety matched by determination. I’ve known this person nearly all my adult life. There’s no more disciplined, seasoned and acute reader of politics. We agree on nearly everything and know we have to fight. We are.

  32. Yep, Jimmy G, a thoroughly inscrutable gentleman.

    I get the feeling Jimmy’s a bit of a legend in these parts BH. I’m glad it’s not just me who finds him inscrutable. All I saw of him in theatre was two eyes, a mask and some kaliedoscope effects.

    And yes, The Cataract Factory at Forster Private…

    Monday is “Eye Day” at FP.

    Tuesday is given over to those who couldn’t make Monday.

    And Wednesday is for “Patches.. OFF!”

    Except I’ve already removed mine to no (I hope) ill effect. Actually I phoned up… it’s fine to remove patches next morning.

    Mine only cost $3,900. Maybe it was a cheap lens after all?

  33. Shorten may win, I think he will, but I also think he will just get over the line. This is due to his inherent unpopularity. A good leader would be looking at a 54 or 55 after the past 6 years. A narrow majority will make it that much harder next election. The ALP will pay for Shortens insistence that only he will be the leader and no one else.

  34. Boerwar

    Things fall apart

    I never knew where that line came from – from the Nigerian novel – originally from W.B.Yeats’ poem

    The Second Coming

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Surely some revelation is at hand;
    Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
    Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
    A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
    Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
    The darkness drops again; but now I know
    That twenty centuries of stony sleep
    Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

    Apparently written in 1919 – after the First World War, the Russian Revolution and trouble in his homeland Ireland after the failed 1916 rebellion – he wrote to a friend in 1936 that it was about his sense of foreboding that worse was to come.

  35. That K Murphy article is really good. She describes this rabble of a government as “spending two terms being unable to decide what to do”, and pretty much spells out how lazy and incapable of doing the work of government they have been.

  36. I have no idea how Howard would play in Warringah, but can imagine he’d do well with Liberal voters considering voting for another candidate instead of Abbott.

  37. briefly

    There was a prescient piece written in 1994. Maybe by Phillip Adams? I have the actual newspaper cutting somewhere. The author sensed a disturbance in the force of Australian politics – that there was a nascent anti-immigrant anti-science anti-establishment movement in the offing, and it just needed some spark or person to set it alight. I kept it just in case they were onto something, then watched in 1996 as the disendorsed Liberal candidate for Oxley took her victimhood all the way to Canberra then shook up the 1998 Queensland election.

    And now she looks mild in comparison to some!

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 18 19 20 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *