Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.
The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.
Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.
WOW!!!
#QandA
Sitting here with a brand new cornea after a cataract op today.
So, anyone who’s had the procedure, when I get to take the bandaging off tomorrow morning will it be crystal clear immediately, or does vision take a while to get into full focus?
As the Tweets said, Bill Shorten answered the questions he was asked in a straightforward fashion and treated the questioners like intelligent individuals.
Sooo different to Mr Shoutison
abc news after q and a talked only about imputation
hopeless
What these anti Adani people refuse to acknowledge is that Adani has positioned themselves to get a big govt payout if the govt arbitrarily says no. This is the basis of the ‘no sovereign risk’ statement.
FFS! You guys need to get it through your Effin heads that if Shorten says he would stop Adani it would cost millions if not billions! The environmental rules will nix it naturally – but an arbitrary statement of NO is suicidal.
Spray @ #1441 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:44 pm
Hm…are these like adult-age “children” or something who like to go and get drunk/high or whatever and then are unsafe to drive themselves home?
Not understanding the use-case here. Wouldn’t a concerned parent just chauffeur them (or tell them to arrange their own damn Uber)?
Not so vision-impaired tonight to miss how much of a shit Tony Jones was tonight on just about the eve of his departure from the Q&A gig.
Bushfire Bill @ #1450 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:53 pm
My mum just had both eyes done, one after the other, and I THINK she said that it was immediately better, but I KNOW that it was eventually as good as it used to be when she was young.
I saw BlowMo puffing hard on 7.30. Sales is doing alright this campaign, generally seems more knowledgeable and more experienced all round.
Is it just me or is Blowhard clearly running out of puff. The longer the campaign goes the emptier he looks. Bill appears the opposite. Geez you’d worry for the country if the voters give Blowhard another Guernsey. Don’t think its likely though.
sprocket_
I reckon Aus is about 1% of GDP below where it should be in terms of health spending, relative to our peers. That’s about $15B annually.
Also, we’re about 33% private (Norway has the lowest private health spending, about 20%). Additional 1% public spending would bring it down to 29%; generally mixed spends should have the smaller part somewhere in the 20s (as was the case with the original HECS)
It might be good for the Commonwealth to take over the specialised hospitals and boost their funding substantially (to ensure equity):
– a specialist comprehensive cancer hospital in each of the five major cities, plus
– in the smaller cities / regions, specialist cancer hospitals (probably focused on medical oncology and some radiation oncology as well as as radiology/pathology) with quaternary referral to above (for surgery, interventional radiology and more specialised medical oncology, radiation oncology, radiology and pathology)
– likewise for specialist heart hospitals (assuming the Melbourne one works out)
– eye hospitals?
– dental?
– better rehab for people in the armed services
Assuming the “specialist hospital” concept is more than just a fad (of course) the reasons for the Commonwealth to get involved directly (in contrast to them not getting involved directly in general hospitals and emergency departments) are:
– operation as a national system, including unique therapy at the national level. E.g. Adelaide SAHMRI2 is intended to have proton beam radiation oncology (exploiting the Bragg limit in the birthplace of Bragg!), probably not justified to have one in each major city, but instead some of the others could have heavy carbon ION which currently requires referral to Japan / US, and perhaps even fast neutron beams at some point)
– better integration with block funded research (i.e. large projects with special programs at national level)
– enhanced development of international reputation
– devolution of clinical trials, particularly in relation to: i) single centre trials (which are apparently more credible when conducted at specialised centres) and ii) nation-wide trials (the five quaternary referral centres in each discipline would be involved in the care of every patient in Australia with advanced disease)
Excellent performance from Bill Shorten.
Scotty handing out pork in the bush – polling must be awfull in Gilmore, Farrer and Indi. This is save the furniture stuff…
hungry jack @ #1452 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:54 pm
As was observed here recently, it’s the employees of the ABC who are among the top 4% of Australian society that take advantage of the Dividend Imputation cashback rort, and the Negative Gearing rort, to minimise their income tax, so that’s why these policies are a big deal to them. THEY are the vested interests that will be affected.
Shorten nailed it.
Far better than I expected. He generally sounds stilted and scripted when he pops up in sound bites. This was relaxed, intelligent, compassionate and engaged (and only a little bit scripted).
BB
That is a most unusual cataract op if they replaced your cornea.
In my ops, they just replaced the lens.
Had 20/20 the next day. One year later it is less than 20/20 but I only need to use specs for very small print, eg the smallest print on a packet of pills.
Bushfire Bill – the change is pretty much immediate. It will be a joy to look at stuff.
Rex: “Chris Bowens failure to sell his franking credit changes goes a long way to explaining the tight opinion polls”
Doesn’t seem very likely
The thing I loved most about tonight’s QandA? The Foreign Policy questions Bill got to answer. He laid out the approach he would take and for the first time in this whole campaign I got an idea of how he would act on the world stage. Which is also a very important facet of being PM.
Has nath been along to criticise Bill Shorten’s tie yet? Or something equally trivial? 🙂
Came in after the start of QandA.
Shorten was taking too long to answer a question, so Tony Jones told him not to go into detail.
The next question, he chastised Shorten for not answering in enough detail….
W to R @11:00PM.
“This was relaxed, intelligent, compassionate and engaged (and only a little bit scripted).”
I’m sure parts were scripted, including the closing. Bill had pretty much anticipated most of the questions, even though a couple were a bit left field.
I really cannot understand why Morrison would give up a large national audience the week of the election – and give TanyaP and Di Natali a free kick.
I mean, Birmingham will be there, but WGAF?
Tonight – my favourite Jones clanger was him trying to pin Shorten on the cost on a possible increase to Newstart … then when Bill started to hit back, tried to flip it on asking him if he knew anyone who could survive on NS…
a r @ #1456 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:56 pm
Pre-adult teens, needing to attend events when Mum and Dad are “unavailable to drive”, and public transport is not feasible. Not a frequent occurrence, but reassuring to be able to track their movements and identify the driver.
C@tMomma:
A modern day Simeon Stylites (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simeon_Stylites) – an early Christian who spent 37 years living at the top of a pole… without even a laptop for company
Steve777 @ #1471 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 11:07 pm
I’d expect they’d worked out a number of answers and key points to hits. If a question didn’t quite fit then the task is to segue. Standard PR procedure. Shorten did it well.
J341983 says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 11:08 pm
Why Birmingham?
Shouldn’t it be the deputy PM? 😆
Fwiw ….our football forum has a politics thread and this was posted earlier…….
Shorten doing OK on Q&A tonight imho.
And I’ve never been a fan.
He won one of our supporters over………
Don’t know how to link to a tweet, but I liked this from Mike Carlton…
“So the Liberals and the Murdochracy demand to know if Shorten supports Keating’s criticism of the spy chiefs. Fine. Now let’s hear if SloMo agrees with Howard and Abbott in their enthusiastic barracking for the pedophile “Cardinal” Pell. Fair question ?”
Censoring my post clarifying the purpose and success of fascism as expressed by modern nations such as China?
It is the policy position of at least two groups standing for election so relevant to the Australian context.
Oh well, there is nothing the world of lies fears more than the truth.
Adieu.
And if it was Bill Shorten who was not willing to come on QandA and answer questions from the public, you can imagine what the blaring headlines in the News Corpse rags would be like.
Toodles
“Is it just me or is Blowhard clearly running out of puff. The longer the campaign goes the emptier he looks.”
The bit I saw on Twitter showed ScoMo talking away but with dead, defeated eyes staring down at nothing. Strange image.
Saw the last 5 mins of Bill on Q&A via Twitter, and boy was he good.
Bill Shorten left me with tears forming in my eyes with that closing statement.
I’ve asked it here before, but why so much talk about tax, including the prominence given at the start of the ABC News. It’s surely got to be our least urgent problem other than that the revenue base has been seriously eroded. Our tax rates aren’t particularly high. So why the fuss?
Rhetorical question, of course. The owners of the big corperates care greatly. Further, the Howard-Costello Budget vandalism created whole new classes of rentseekers in their quest to starve the beast.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #1436 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:05 pm
Wow, Greens using Adani to beat Shorten over the head with, which shows how desperate they are. We all know that the Opposition cannot say anything about Adani because to do so would compromise any future legal action. But none are so blind as those who refuse to see.
The Coward from the Shire!
It really is quite bizarre.
You’d think he was defending a winning position, not coming from behind.
How do they expect to make ground, or are they just trying to minimise the damage and protect what they think they’ve already saved.
“If Di Natale can restrain himself from making snarky comments about Labor,”
Lol! be serious ar. 🙂
…and all those jews he murdered LGH, don’t forget about that and you know his world tour, Poland, France, Belgium Denmark, Norway, Holland, BRITAIN (CANCELLED), USSR (CANCELLED). Fuck me, these fascist tards are springing up everywhere these days. I’m a member of a British board and they slither out over there too. I guess ole Trump has given them more confidence. To think my grandfather spent four years shooting the bastards. He’d be turning in his grave,
Bushfire Bill @ #1452 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 8:53 pm
If it was successful, vision should be crystal clear immediately. I had both eyes done a couple of years ago. All taken care of by our brilliant Medicare system.
Please note that if you needed glasses, say for reading, before the cataracts developed, you’ll still need them afterwards. It doesn’t fix that part of your vision.
Sohar says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 11:19 pm
Turnbull showed signs of struggling in the last campaign when it was mainly just him.
Morrison seems to have done more of a solo effort than that.
It can’t be easy!
Meanwhile, Shorten once again has had the full support of his team.
I wore glasses for nearly 30 years. After cateract surgery, I use reading glasses for small print and close work but I don’t need glasses to drive or read a book or newspaper.
Meoldema was quite impressed by Shorten. She said he sounds like a sporting team coach. She was very happy with that.
Sohar – thought Bill was almost overdoing the empathy stuff and sounding a bit ‘left wing’ talking to a sympathetic audience. But I reckon that Labor have seen that as the way to connect with voters – the personal touch. Interesting… Contrasts with Blowhard’s recital of figures and makes the libs sound mean-spirited when they talk about Labor coming after your money. May not be working as well as could be hoped but plenty of time left.
Blowhard has tried some of that empathy stuff as well but he’s just not as good at it as Shorten. I think he knows he’s cooked and trying to change it up but its not working.
Plibersek could be walking into a left-right pincer next week on Q&A.
RDN will be eager to sideline her and Labor as fake progressives and Birmingham will be putting on the “I’m totally woke and not the RW nutjob you expect from the Coalition. We’re not that bad!” act with both teaming up to push “Shorten Labor though… ewww… amirite?”
Tanya can easily handle both of them.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/one-nation-splits-preferences-in-key-wa-and-queensland-seats-20190506-p51kmo.html
One Nation splits preferences in key WA and Queensland seats
By Shane Wright
May 6, 2019 — 6.38pm
One Nation has issued split preference tickets in a string of key marginal seats through Queensland and Western Australia that could turn the result of the federal election.
How-to-vote cards for One Nation candidates in a series of electorates where preferences will be crucial show it has delivered the ALP an electoral lifeline.
Watching QANDA. Shorten owns tonight pretty comprehensively.
ScodaHMo going to have a few questions to answer tomorrow.
Where the Bloody Hell are yaH ScoMo?? And that from Jones in the pre-Qanda intro, not Shorten. 🙂
What happened with ScoMo when it came to the Marriage Equality vote?
What I’m asking is this. He’s recorded as being out of the chamber. What was he and his other abstainers doing?
Would make an awkward question for him.
“Tanya can easily handle both of them.”
Very unlikely. I’m sure she’ll handle Birmingham just fine (not that that’s hard) but she’s got no chance against Di Natale.
Watching Q&A on replay atm. Shorten performing pretty well. He always does in Q&A type events. Cowardly of Morrison to be “unavailable”. I don’t like these solo Q&As much though, it’s much better when there’s differing views in response to the questions.
Cud,
It’s been asked.
He basically said, the legislation was passed, his actions he had no effect in stopping that happening and that he didn’t vote against his electorate’s wishes.
Pretty pathetic, but …