First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.
Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:
• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.
• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.
• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.
• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.
• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.
• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.
Horse race latest:
• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.
• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.
• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.
• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.
Self-promotion corner:
If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.
From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:
Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.
And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:
If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.
Blobbit @ #378 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 4:23 pm
Too subtle too.
Burgey @ #366 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 3:54 pm
Ditto for the mean streets of Dulwich Hill.
Bludgers were nowhere if they were not at the Booroowa Picnic Race Day today. The traffic in town was chaotic but that was nothing to the goings-on at the grand concourse:
https://www.visitnsw.com/destinations/country-nsw/young-area/boorowa/events/boorowa-picnic-races
Which will benefit society and the rich (those who deserve to be) in the long run. It will grow the pie. It will increase stability. It will lead to greater economic mobility – upward through merit and downward through incompetence. In all, a healthier, more efficient and more dynamic economy.
Wealth is power. It corrupts and then rots the whole fish. Democracy is meant to check this.
I reckon ScoMo will end up speaking in tongues before the campaign closes
Perhaps he is planning to hold the Liberal Party launch at Shire Live during their Sunday service?
As a parent of an 18yo and 20yo, whinging from old cnuts about not getting money from the tax payer/ government as some kind of refund for tax they haven’t paid, is less popular with them than picking up the labrador’s craps in the backyard.
Also , any party that brings in a policy that reduces the value of housing/ makes buying a house cheaper than it is now, will get their vote with no tears shed for negative gearing investors’ losses – Fcuk em!!
Reckon it might be time for some kind of Logan’s Run sorting out of oldies ( as long as the cutoff age gets adjusted to my birth year + 12 months ) 😉
Simon² Katich® @ #404 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 5:29 pm
Labor policies ignore the starving and destitute on Newstart. A glaring and cruel omission.
Now that’s a crown!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6105837/thai-king-formally-crowned-as-monarch/?cs=14232
Doesn’t Ad Man from Mad Men give his yelled instructions in “tongues”?
Plus he works on the theory that if he is rambling on he leaves no time for questions
citizen says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 5:19 pm
Morrison denies ‘Space Invaders’ happened. Claims Shorten was avoiding him.
It was a debate not hand to hand combat.
End up?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6B1V1PFsyho
lefty e says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 5:30 pm
I reckon ScoMo will end up speaking in tongues before the campaign closes
I reckon ScoMo is a blowhard who is running out of puff. He’ll be a deflated ballon that has been blown up a few times too many by 18 May. I think we saw peak ScoMo this week.
I note with great sadness that none of the audience at the debate last night asked a question related to offshore asylum seeker torture and the policy going forward.
Re Labor environment policy and Greens deserters in some people’s dreams
Overall seems a fairly poor attempt at seeming to do something, $1 billion with $400m including what has already been given and will be reallocated from the Great Barrier Reef foundation. In total 2/3 of the taxpayer funding promised for Beetaloo and Galilee basin gas then given for the environment. Seems like a joke.
Greens plans for over $2bn per year are far more ambitious, considering the rapid changes and breakdown in ecological systems.
Funding for transition and change to renewable energy is separate and further, including extra funding for transformation in coal based communities.
No further new coal or CSG mining with the Greens, Adani or any others.
According to the ongoing VoterChoice panel survey from April 30, Labor beat itself up on the environment with that Beetaloo and Galilee CSG ‘promise’, losing a full percent or more to Greens by their estimation.
Seems a pretty straight forward calculation, $1.5 billion for new gas and CSG, $1 billion for the environment over how long?
Warning to partisans though, this panel of voters results may cause distress at the low votes for some. Though the final 2PP would be welcome by most around here I’d say. Also UAP doesn’t register, but not because there’s no option, discussed there.
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-12-election-weekly-survey-2/
While Labor gets no credit from those to the left or those to the right, what it has done is recognise the social investment this country requires has to be funded. If you are going to increase investment in health and education then you must also increase revenue.
For many years every party has tried to pretend you can have increased expenditure in areas where it is needed but that people can also hold onto to every benefit or tax cut they have enjoyed.
I’m one of those who on a personal basis could be far better off under a Liberal government. I earn a good salary, my offspring have had their free primary and secondary education, I can afford private health insurance, etc. However, as a society we NEED state schools, we NEED properly funded public hospitals. We NEED action on climate change, we SHOULD support those less fortunate.
We need more revenue to make that possible. Yes, Labor’s taken a risk. It was right to do so and I hope it works.
If it loses the election we will get a Coalition government which will raise the pension age, which will carve more and more money out of the public sector and which will extend privatisation to schools and hospitals.
My coverage for Tas Leg Co live is here:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/05/legislative-council-2019-nelson.html
What a surprise. Not. Labor’s Environment policy is not good enough for the Green Quoll.
A soundly argued summation, WayOut, as your personal situation is analogous with many Labor voters who fully appreciate the myriad critical issues that are part and parcel of a Fair Go society.
And my Tasmanian upper house count coverage is here:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/04/tasmanian-upper-house-nelson-pembroke-montgomery/
”
lefty e says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 5:30 pm
I reckon ScoMo will end up speaking in tongues before the campaign closes
”
Yesterday while talking about Creasey said “Tghe standard you walk by is the standard you accept”. So does he accept the standard Tony Abbott & George Christensen during their Uni Days?
Ofcourse, he, Liberal party & LNP accept their Uni standards. That is the reason they are still MPs & contesting in this election. So one standard for ALP & another standard for LNP & Liberal party.
Refer to my post (Ven says:Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 12:09 pm) to know the standards set by Tony Abbott & George Christensen
Boerwar. I didn’t get to the Boorowa Picnics, (didn’t know they were on!) but I have three rellos in that photo you referenced, and none of them are wearing flowery pants.
It is an excellent crown, and not influenced in any way by Lèse majesté:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A8se_majest%C3%A9_in_Thailand
”
guytaur says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:38 pm
AL
Precisely. They don’t think about it. They are just left with a false impression.
It advantages parties that are rich but lack grass roots support.
Its not a huge problem that’s why we don’t have a law about it.
If we were going to go to the trouble of making a law. Label them party worker or volunteer.
”
How supportive you think Adam Bandt & Greens are of LGBTI community after the way treated Luke Creasey
William Bowe.
If you are around, is it true that there is less public polling going on this election? I feel like I havent seen as much seat or overall polling results.
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 3:14 pm
As far as the Franking thing is concerned, I think those who attack Labor’s move, as recipients I guess, need to say how is it that they don’t pay any income tax, yet get a tax-payer gift by way of refund
I asked this exact question this morning.
She wants it because – The rebate to her is thus a kind of retrospective tax cut, a belated refund of monies already paid years ago.
”
She also got a lot of government services like provision of roads & other benefits for the taxes she paid
KM
LOL!!!
Liberal standards.
Every situation is unique, so there is always a very good reason why the standards that apply to you, do not apply to us. 🙂
Only if the economy is currently at full employment, which it isn’t. The evidence of unused capacity in the economy is 700,000 unemployed people, 1.1 million under-employed people, and 900,000 hidden unemployed people.
http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/6A38AB9379F0EFF9CA257FD8001293DE?OpenDocument
With that vast amount of unused real resource capacity, the currency issuer can increase its net spending without causing an inflation problem.
Dr Steven Hail, a macroeconomist at the University of Adelaide, estimates that the Australian Government could run an annual deficit of $50 billion at the moment without causing an inflation problem. It would depend on how the extra spending were targeted.
The Australian Government’s current fiscal balance is a deficit of only a few billion dollars. There is therefore a lot of scope to increase net spending without causing accelerating inflation. Implementing a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee would probably cost $35 billion in the first year if it were implemented now (according to Steven Hail). That leaves another $15 billion or so of extra discretionary spending that the federal government could do this year. It would be best to focus that spending on activities that enhance productive capacity. Investing more in research and development, education and training, other public services such as child care and health promotion, and public infrastructure are the obvious priorities to focus on.
”
Burgey says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 3:54 pm
Things very positive for Albo on the mean streets of balmain this afternoon door knocking
”
Why are you doing it for Albo. He is a shoe in. Do it against Craig Kelly.
Rex
We don’t know yet what they will or won’t do about that. Why don’t you show some bloody patience for a change and wait and see what happens after they are elected?
Yawn Rex.
”
meher baba says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 4:21 pm
mundo: “Just read a depressing piece in the SMH about the findings from a recent focus group.
I think some of us here don’t realise how fully fcking fcked in the head most voters are.
Dumber than rocks in a box. How a progressive centre left party is ever elected in this country is a mystery.”
It’s not necessarily a function of stupidity. Many people on the Australian left, including many who post on this forum, have long underestimated the proportion of Australians who are comparatively very wealthy by global standards. As Clive Hamilton once argued, the Australian left is somewhat stuck in a “deprivation” paradigm in which its focus remains on helping “lowly-paid” workers and families, when much of its traditional core constituency has steadily marched up the income ladder into a bracket that many would consider to be totally “middle class.”
We can see it again in this election campaign. Everything Labor says and does has a very large focus on “low paid workers”: typically people earning AWE or less. On paper these people would look to be the sort of “battlers” to whom Labor would appeal, but the economic researcher in me would like to know a lot more about the composition of this group. With the growth in part-time employment, the rise in the number of small businesses, with many more working people putting money in tax effective investment vehicles, and with younger generations switching jobs far more regularly, I suspect the range of circumstances of people at the bottom of the income scale has never been more complex.
What we do know is that relatively few members of the traditional blue collar workforce are at the bottom of the scale, at least if they are engaged in full-time work. I was struck by the recent dispute at the Streets Ice Cream factory in Sydney where, when rostered overtime was included, the largely unskilled workforce was reported to be taking home an average of significantly more than $100k per year. And then we have the Gladstone worker who told Shorten he and his mates earned $240k per annum, but definitely still seemed to consider themselves to be Labor constituents.
It seems to me that, while there are undoubtedly many people doing it tough, a significant majority of Australians – more than enough to cause a landslide election result if they all voted the same way – are doing very nicely indeed thank you very much, and would be keen to do even better in future. Labor is very fortunate that a sizeable proportion of these well-off types – particularly university-educated baby boomers and millennials – are rusted-on voters for the parties of the left. If more of these people chose to vote entirely on the basis of their own economic self-interest, Labor’s electoral situation might be more or less permanently hopeless.
That’s why I always prefer Labor to go for economically inclusive narratives – as it did under Hawke and Keating – rather than adopt an “us and them” position, which is sort of what they are doing in this campaign.
But, if it ends up working, then fair enough I guess.
”
I guess you are right about the fact that more than 50 % (could be 60%) of the people are either middle class or above in Australia and that is reason why LNP is in power 17 of last 23 years.
She also got a lot of government services like provision of roads & other benefits for the taxes she paid
She has a daughter with mild to medium cerebral palsy who is completely unable to work. Every cent of the daughter’s income is derived from the NDIS.
Nevertheless the daughter goes on at least two overseas trips/cruises per year, “all with her own money”, as her mother puts it.
Of course, no “bludging” off the taxpayers is involved.
Ven
Just check out the median wages and see how “rich” people are.
Here’s a tip, watch Lyons on election n8ight. I’m tipping Whelan will be competitive and that this controversy will actually boost her vote.
@Clem Attlee
Because she said so right?
Jessica Whelan is a candidate not an MP.
Seat of Lyon is held by Labor since 2016 at 3.8%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/lyon/
IoM @ #427 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 4:15 pm
I second this. It definitely feels like there hasn’t been anywhere near the extent of polling we’ve seen in previous elections.
I Agree with IoM and Confessions.
I don’t believe there is more polling this time around, and I don’t believe the “cost” is an issue.
I don’t think the media are telling us the entire truth.
Ven
Because I live in balmain ffs.
And I have seen the first corflute of the campaign by the sitting Liberal member here. A lone and rather solemn looking effort on the back entry to town. Likely to be seen only by the more conservative voters to the east of the electorate as they come into the region’s main centre for their business.
Ven @ #434 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
Rex has never met someone destitut.et and desperate in his life.
His whole schtick is bullshit.
In relation to less polling during this campaign, Easter and ANZAC Day have reduced the suitable days for polling.
Peter Brent
Verified account @mumbletwits
1m1 minute ago
Be advised the nasty RWNJ persona (particularly fixated on black Africans) Mr Dutton presents to public is intended for narrowcasting to Liberal loony base. Is *not* for general consumption. Members of the wider Dickson electorate are advised to consider Peter the family man. tku
ScoMo said that Stunts and wisecracks don’t show you lead the country….. The Liberals main slogan is a bad PUN for drying out loud!
I notice no Green has made mention of the comprehensive environmental policies articulated today.
Monte Bovill
Verified account @MonteBovill
Liberal Nic Street has picked up 30% of the votes from the Sandy Bay Beach polling place. Vica Bayley and Madeleine Ogilvie on 15% each #politas
(boosting their own seats).
Isle of Rocks @ #446 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
This would be a plausible reason for less polling. But still. It’s an election campaign! 😀