Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

Comments Page 6 of 26
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  1. @ltep

    Maybe it is possible, however I am betting that the desire of most of the Coalition to stay in power, will outweigh any attachment to ideology.

  2. Rocket Rocket @ #235 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:14 am

    Steve777

    I think in Australia if any lower house candidate dies before the election they have to hold a special election afterwards.

    This certainly applies in Victoria – on 1999 a minor candidate in a Frankston seat died the night before the election so there was instead a special election a few weeks later

    A useful pointer.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/how-you-can-vote-when-federal-election-candidate-has-resigned/11072830

  3. “Shorten should expect to be hit with a question about Creasey. With no corresponding one about Whelan for Mr. Morrison.”

    I don’t know Creasy but the sort of jokes that he was sharing years ago are mild compared with some of the jokes that still circulate and raise laughs on the rwnj site I read. So it is serious hypocrisy for them to complain about Creasy’s behaviour.

    And if Whelan can change her mind about such an important issue as hatred for Muslims in a few years then clearly Creasy can with credibility plead that he has been enlightened by the me too movement and such and he really has changed for the better because he understands now how damaging these jokes can be. Can he do that?

    Perhaps Whelan should have told us about her change of mind and how she came to now not think those things and what does she now think about them and she could have stayed on.

  5. The Liberals would tear each other apart before taking any solid action on climate change. We’ve seen that multiple times now and nothing has changed.

  6. I suppose both sides are going through their opponents’ social media posts back to the beginning of social media in search of incriminating posts. Mutually assured …something, although since the Right controls the Noise Machine, it’s a playing field tilted against Labor.

  7. @Tristo – what in the last three years has given you that notion? Especially with key moderates now gone?

    You want to a predict a hung parliament, go for it, I’m yet to see any evidence as to where that will happen, but don’t be under any apprehension that it will be anything other than a colossal clusterfuck.

  8. Al Pal @10.18 – Shorten’s response should be – John Alexander. Surely Morrison must be happy if Labor’s response to Creasey is the same as the LNP’s to Alexander. Otherwise Morrison would be a hypocrite wouldn’t he?

  9. Tristo says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 10:16 am
    @meher baba

    Great insights, I am more convinced of the prospect of a hung parliament with Sharkie, Phelps, Steggal, Oakeshott, along with possibly a few other centre to center-right independents support either a minority Labor or (more likely) Coalition government.

    ——————

    For any chance of a hung Parliament the libs/nats combined primary vote has to be 42% + , for a majority the libs/nats will need to be closer to 45%+

  10. ‘Surely we are better than that. Sigh………..’
    Hmm, Abbott, Turnbull, Howard,..Morrison competative..? I’ll have to think on it….

  14. Steve777 @ #256 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:30 am

    I suppose both sides are going through their opponents’ social media posts back to the beginning of social media in search of incriminating posts. Mutually assured …something, although since the Right controls the Noise Machine, it’s a playing field tilted against Labor.

    NO as the right hate, it is a playing field greatly in favour of Labor 😡

  16. Speaking of tributes.

    Congratulations Robert Smith and and The Cure.

    30 year anniversary of best album ever.
    Disintegration.

  17. Scott Morrison lying again ,yesterday he claimed he had nothing to do with candidates selection it the party decision , today he is trying to take credit claiming he had something to do with the liberal party member resigning .

  18. Is the sky leaders debate in free to air or more likely online?
    It will be interesting to watch, does scomo dial down the in your face aggression, knowing that it puts many people off, or will he continue in the same aggro vein, given that is who he is.

    Bill will need to have a more nuanced response to the inevitable “cost to the economy” question of labor’s climate change policies (he should read ‍⚖️grog’s recent guardian piece on this, it’s brilliant as always and puts the respective policies in context).
    I’m a little pissed that labor (looking at you Mark Butler) have not come up with a better message on labor’s CC policies. I get it, the cost of inaction etc etc but some of the average punters out there might find it all a bit too hard. It’s been somewhat messy.
    IMO the response should be along the lines, “there will be a cost to the budget of X$, just as there is a cost to the budget of the coalitions policies. Unlike the coalition, we will not pay polluters to stop polluting the environment and our policies will actually reduce emissions and grow the economy”.

  19. Scott Morrison says he was lied to in case of Jessica Whelan
    You poor thing. You are a such honourable person & everybody in your party is lying to you.

  21. A question to the Prime Minister this morning. 😆

    Question: The announcement about this environment package that you’re releasing, $it is 200 million, it is a significant amount of money. Why isn’t theEnvironment Minister here with you?

    The Guardian blog

  22. In the UK local elections, Labour is losing more seats than Tories. In this round of UK local elections, as it is Labour has less number of council seats. but still Labour is losing more seats than Tories

  24. Regarding disendorsed candidates, I’d happily go back to the old system of not printing party affiliation on ballot papers. Parties have no constitutional standing, and putting their names next to the candidates they’ve endorsed just clouds the fact that it’s individuals who stand for election, not parties.

    It might at least disabuse some people of the idea that a party could/should withdraw a candidate who has legally nominated and not personally withdrawn from standing for election.

  27. Ven @ #268 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Scott Morrison says he was lied to in case of Jessica Whelan
    You poor thing. You are a such honourable person & everybody in your party is lying to you.

    If that is the case, then it must have been the Tasmanian Branch of the Liberal Party that led to him. And who is the titular head of that group? Eric Abetz.

    So, what did Eric Abetz know, and when did he know it?

    Also, I think cartoonists need to start drawing Scott Morrison as a mushroom. It seems as though he is kept in the dark and fed bs about just about everything!

  28. poroti @ #275 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:46 am

    Workers, Aboriginals ? Same same to Scrott’s maaate Clive.

    Clive Palmer’s $100m foundation to benefit Aboriginal people launched 10 years ago only has $109 in it, despite never having disbursed a grant or allocation, according to financial records published by the Australian charity commission.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/03/clive-palmers-100m-aboriginal-foundation-only-has-109-in-it-records-show

    All show. No go.

    It’s Clive Palmer’s motto, isn’t it?

  29. Murdoch papers. I hope PB readers find the following interesting:
    We stayed interstate at an NSW motel (in a marginal electorate) earlier this week. Booking.com asked for feedback about what I didn’t like about the motel and I submitted the following:
    “They put out copies of The Australian newspaper in the lobby / breakfast area for guests to read. A minuscule number of the guests actually bother reading this papulous drivulous load of excrement. Newscorpse delivers 40 copies of this paper sometime before 4.30am and (the manager told me) the motel usually puts 36-37 unread copies in the garbage the next day. It seems that sociopaths like Lachlan and Rupert Murdoch think that, in addition to fucking up the environment via their support for suicidal environmental policies, they also think it’d be good if they printed a lot of their pap simply so it can be taken to the tip.”
    The manager and I had a friendly chat about this and he told me that they had previously got free copies of the Daily Telegraph but, on being asked to pay for it, they cancelled it. A week later they started getting unsolicited copies of The Australian. This was “over a year ago”.
    Since we are in election mode, it strikes me that the Electoral Commission should be taking an interest in this interference in an election campaign. I can’t see anything that distinguishes this rubbish from Clive Palmer’s crap. Shouldn’t The Australian carry an “Authorised by…” statement during election periods? Free Daily Telegraphs are also all over the place. Surely there would have to be a case that free copies of this crap constitute “electoral material”? The emphasis here is or may be on “free”.

  31. KayJay says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:30 am
    I think I had better do some restorative lawn mowing to recapture my optimistic outlook.
    ”
    My lawn mower is not working even though it is serviced last November. May you should have look at it. 🙂

  33. Ven

    Scott Morrison says he was lied to in case of Jessica Whelan

    Now he knows how we feel every time he opens his mouth – for instance yesterday he told us that this matter had been referred to the Federal Police, when it clearly had not been.

  34. Victoria @ #248 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:26 am

    Speaking of Frydenberg. I have been in electorate of Kooyong several times this week.

    Huge billboards of Frydenberg face placed in high visage places.

    Josh Frydenberg delivering for Kooyong.

    Josh Frydenburg trying to deliver the Opposition Leader’s position for Josh Frydenburg after the election methinks.

  35. Ven @ #280 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:53 am

    KayJay says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:30 am
    I think I had better do some restorative lawn mowing to recapture my optimistic outlook.
    ”
    My lawn mower is not working even though it is serviced last November. May you should have look at it. 🙂

    I have had to dump my mulching mower. Sad day. It was about 35 years old – practically new.

    I will view your machine courtesy of my magic crystal ball and upon receipt of the grossly inflated quotation fee – send a report. 😇

  38. “Maybe it is possible, however I am betting that the desire of most of the Coalition to stay in power, will outweigh any attachment to ideology.”

    If the LNP win, that’s it for CC action for the next few elections. It’ll just prove to the parties that it is not a vote winner overall.

  39. Environmental Dept is worried about the future of the black throated finch.

    Also worried would be Clive and a lot of Qld L/NP candidates.

    How does it go again. Labor announcing well thought out proposals and L/NP rubbishing them.

    It will all be over too quick!

  40. Fozzie
    “NO as the right hate, it is a playing field greatly in favour of Labor :(“

    I was not claiming equivalence. It does not surprise me that many Coalition members and would-be members are bigots at heart, because much of the Coalition parties’ base are. But sufficient trawling would find indiscretions in many peoples’ on-line history.

    My point was that it is not a level playing field. The Right controls what gets blown up on the front pages and what gets buried, so it is tilted against Labor.

    I haven’t seen the post that got Creasey into trouble, neither has the ABC. Apparently it was years ago, juvenalia. Assuming that it was poor form but not a hanging offence, I see no need to give the Right this scalp. Do this and they’ll move right onto the next one.

  41. “Libs out to $3.75 from $3.50 just now on Sportsbet. ALP in to $1.27.”

    Movement will be reversed when the 50-50 Newspoll is released on Sunday night.

  43. Steve777,
    Yes, it’s interesting, no? that we haven’t seen Creasey’s post but it hasn’t stopped the Cons going on and on and on about it in order to try and claim a Labor scalp. Must be terrible, eh? 🙂

  44. I accidentally inserted an emoji in my previous post.
    I have no idea how I did that, probably because i was typing so fast I stumbled upon a magical keyboard combination.
    Kay jay would know how i did it 🙂

  45. With just 16 days to the election, the chances of the campaign going completely off the rails is high. Probably more so among the LNP, most probably from the hodge podge of unknown candidates both independents and members of the lesser parties and least likely from the Labor Party.
    Betting certainly indicates a trend and the polls are grudgingly moving.
    The 16 days left could well be a very long 16 days with lots of damage control and a strong headwind against policy and message.
    The LNP are in the best position in regard to policy as they mostly don’t have any that they would like to become well known.
    Labor is not getting much help from a media self absorbed and shallow.
    All made worse due to the more than likely length of time to finalize a Debate.

  46. KayJay and Ven – maybe it’s time for each of you to buy a battery-powered mower? Followed within a year or two by an electric car?

  47. I haven’t seen the post that got Creasey into trouble, neither has the ABC. Apparently it was years ago, juvenalia. Assuming that it was poor form but not a hanging offence, I see no need to give the Right this scalp. Do this and they’ll move right onto the next one.

    He basically said catholics do it in the bum, very poor form actually, and he should step aside 🙁

  48. C@tmomma

    MB’s ‘Battlers’.
    .
    .

    Real ‘victims’ of Labor’s dividend tax policy are not average Joannes

    …, 92 per cent of taxpayers did not claim excess franking credits through their personal income tax return……………. 80 per cent of excess franking credits claimed by SMSFs went to funds with balances above $1 million and more than half by funds with balances above $2.44 million, based on information provided by the PBO……………………………..an outfit called SuperConcepts, which provides services to SMSFs. It argued Labor’s policy would “hit the lower end of retirees” – but its definition of a lower-end retiree is someone with $900,000 in an self-managed super fund at age 65.

    SuperConcepts analysis points out that the closing balance after 20 years with the refundable credit would be $953,480 compared with $825,519 without the franking credit. That might be true but so what? For an 85-year-old to still have more than $800,000 in super puts them firmly in the upper echelon of household wealth.
    https://outline.com/qyhGVw

  49. ”
    Alpha Zero says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 10:18 am
    Alright, who has hacked Nath?
    ”
    Nobody because first preference is to LNP. So it doesn’t if second preference is to ALP. 🙂

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