Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. “Well, having been given a nasty little jolt, I googled it. Seems the ‘plenty of evidence’ claim is somewhat overstating the situation (typical Green!). Maybe. maybe not seems to be the present state of the debate. This from 2014 caught my eye:”

    For your sake I think I’ll let this go. I did not wish to alarm you. 🙂

    I will say though that there is still plenty of debate in 2019 as to issues regarding genitals. For example, many still debate whether the g spot even exists or not, even though there’s clear evidence that it most certainly exists and can easily be located by anyone.

  2. “I had a female friend once who had lost the glans of her clitoris through infection. I have never met anyone who enjoyed sex more often and more intensely than this person.”

    Google g spot orgasm.

    You’re welcome. 😛

  3. Just as quite a few candidates have admitted to past drug addiction and other anti-social activities in their past, it would be wise for candidates who perhaps played a bit fast and loose with their internet-accessible comments in the past to say up front that they went through some rather bad behaviours but have now reformed and devoted themselves to public service, family life etc.

    The main downside to past unwise statements lies in them having been hidden, rather than in the statements themselves. It’s a version of “it’s not so much the act that hurts you, it’s the cover-up”.

    Of course, if the statements are more current and reflect ongoing anti-social beliefs or actions, that’s a different matter.

  4. I’m no fan of the Greens, and even less of a fan of Di Natale. But it certainly cannot be said that he has not taken a firm and consistent stand against anti vaxers.

    On upcoming polls; the first two weeks were an onslaught against Labor and we only saw slight tightening, and even an increase in Shorten’s ratings and a closing of the PPM gap. This week has not been so great for the LNP, they’ve had the worse of the candidates mess, Shorten has performed well including winning the debate. I think a shift back to 52-48 is likely.

  5. AE – saw a show on this a few years back.
    A lady in her 40s who was married to both a cut and uncut for ten years stated the uncircumcised version was far superior and the sensations caused very different. She said she would never recommend from a female point of view that males should be circumcised.
    Have not seen any studies leaning one way or the other.

  6. “I’m no fan of the Greens, and even less of a fan of Di Natale. But it certainly cannot be said that he has not taken a firm and consistent stand against anti vaxers.”

    Doctors like RDN fully understand just how important vaccination is. I’m glad he’s taken the stand he has too, both internally and externally.

  7. I’d say defending a convicted paedophile is worse than a joke about rape. Yet Howard and some current senior LNP politicians are allowed to carry on.

  8. Without being too graphic about it, I think that you would be lucky to have got away with a “headband” as I should imagine that damage to the frenulum would be the most likely candidate for causing lost sensation due to circumcision

  9. Blanlet_C@2:50pm
    I share your sentiment about him. Vote independent or informal on HOR ballot and vote on senate paper as you always do.

  10. If I were in Melbourne, I would vote exactly as I would have done before: 1 Creasy 2 Bandt.

    Creasy deserves a bit of credit for falling on his sword. Although I’m not enamoured of the Greens, I would prefer them to almost everyone else, including the nutters on the right and the left.

  11. Surely former tennis champion JA was being sarcastic wasn’t he?
    He couldn’t be that dumb.

    (Btw, like that one Gareth.)

  12. ajm,

    From the comments on that Quiggins piece.

    “Politics and the media look at Adani the wrong way round.

    The future of steaming coal in Australia will not be decided by Australian governments.

    The future of steaming coal will be made by foreign governments and utilities. Building the mine will make no difference, unless some one wants to buy the product.

    But there is a lot of politics and lobbying confusing the picture.

    Adani has persisted with the mine in the hope of getting a better price for the Abbott Point export terminal. Gina and Palmer want Adani as a Trojan horse to get a rail link and open the precinct for their mines.

    All too late. There is no money to be made from a new mine with low quality coal. And China and India already have unhealthy air quality”.

  13. “Politics and the media look at Adani the wrong way round.

    The future of steaming coal in Australia will not be decided by Australian governments.

    The future of steaming coal will be made by foreign governments and utilities. Building the mine will make no difference, unless some one wants to buy the product.

    But there is a lot of politics and lobbying confusing the picture.

    Adani has persisted with the mine in the hope of getting a better price for the Abbott Point export terminal. Gina and Palmer want Adani as a Trojan horse to get a rail link and open the precinct for their mines.

    All too late. There is no money to be made from a new mine with low quality coal. And China and India already have unhealthy air quality”.

    Rey close to the mark. Except to add that the main game is actually whether the Galilee Basin is opened up. Not just for thermal coal mining, but other environmentally destructive activities: fracking and especially beef cattle.

    The mine is a pure totem issue. A sideshow to the main game. The main game is the rail line and what that means to land usage in central Queensland.

  14. That settled it then. I’m voting for Creasey to make a statement about how old social media pots shouldn’t be used to discredit current candidates. It’s a terrible precedent and basically just means no-one from my generation will make it to public office. I thought Labor learned their lesson with this when the coalition and their campaigners tried to pull the same shit on Emma Hussar during her campaign at the last election. Stick by your candidate and ignore the trolls and their fake outrage. The only people convinced by the fake controversy were never voting for you anyway. I thought the James Gunn thing had killed this form of trolling, but apparently not.

  15. ‘Vile’: Hinch takes aim at Leyonhjelm in Hanson-Young defamation case

    Victorian independent Senator Derryn Hinch has told the Federal Court that former politician David Leyonhjelm’s comments in the media about the Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young were “vile” and he supported her claim that she did not say in Parliament that “all men were rapists”.

    In a blow to Mr Leyonhjelm’s defence to a defamation action brought against him by Senator Hanson-Young, Mr Hinch said on Friday that “at no stage did Senator Hanson-Young say that all men were rapists”.

    More: https://amp.smh.com.au/national/vile-hinch-takes-aim-at-leyonhjelm-in-hanson-young-defamation-case-20190503-p51jpc.html

    Not the biggest fan of Hinch but good on him and all the other Senators, including Kenneally, from both inside and outside the Greens who’ve backed up Sarah Hanson-Young in this court case. Decent people have had enough of this backwards sexist garbage and it goes well beyond party lines.

  16. Not sure if this has got a run –

    Will Clive Palmer ruin Antony Green’s election night?
    2-3 minutes

    The mining billionaire wants any release of the information to be delayed until 9.30pm AEST – and that creates a problem for poll analysts like Mr Green.

    “If we do not get the preference counts, it makes our life much more difficult,” says Mr Green.

    Will Clive Palmer stop the election being called live? AAP

    “If what he says gets up in the court, there are – before Western Australia closes – 135 divisions.

    “If we can’t get preference counts in those 135 till the polls close in Western Australia it just creates doubt and uncertainty on the actual result.”

    So no call on the result till 9.30?

    “Maybe not 9.30. It might be 8pm.”

    The case turns on what is a very technical point; whether asking an AEC official to choose between the two likely frontrunners and making that choice known can affect the outcome.

    Mr Green sees a fatal flaw in Mr Palmer’s argument – at least on a practical level – about the AEC official’s choice being revealed.

    “The difficulty of it is that the results will be known anyway. First preferences and scrutineer counts of preferences will be available, just not the AEC’s official results.”

    There is also a crucial provision in the Electoral Act – section 274 – that makes it clear the choice is based on each division. “So the choice made in one division,” says Mr Green, “shouldn’t necessarily carry through to any other.”

    The betting is against Mr Palmer, but he does have one of the country’s best – and most expensive – barristers, David Jackson QC, in his corner.

    Perhaps he just wants to remind all that the AEC didn’t pick him to finish in the top two when he ran for – and won – the Queensland seat of Fairfax in 2013.

    “He’s got a bee in his bonnet; that’s what it is,” says Mr Green.

    The High Court has expedited the hearing so it can decide the case before election night.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/will-clive-palmer-ruin-antony-green-s-election-night-20190501-p51j7q

  17. “I don’t think politicians should sue other politicians.”

    Why not? They are entitled to the same legal recourse as anyone else for things that happen outside the two houses of parliament.

  18. Hopefully this farce of digging up questionable things people have said doesn’t continue for much longer.

  19. Keating has given the Grattan Institute a massive spray over their piece on the 12% super contribution proposal. And no one sprays like PJK. His rant is on the Guardian blog.

  20. Firefox, they are in a pretty privileged position in that they have such a huge platform to speak and correct the record. Furthermore, Hanson-Young has suffered no actual loss through the allegedly defamatory comments and the whole thing is a publicity stunt. I don’t believe the courts should be used for collateral purposes.

    In other countries defamation lawsuits are commonly used by governing parties as a way to silence their political opponents, having a pretty chilling effect on political debate.

  21. Mr Ed says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 2:59 pm
    AE – saw a show on this a few years back.
    A lady in her 40s who was married to both a cut and uncut for ten years stated the uncircumcised version was far superior and the sensations caused very different. She said she would never recommend from a female point of view that males should be circumcised.
    Have not seen any studies leaning one way or the other.
    ………………………………………………………………………..

    A friend of mine, now deceased, told me he survived the German concentration camp he found himself in at the end of the war by, among other strategems, maintaining an erection when inspected in order to hide his circumcised give-away. If the story is even based on a truth as to the visible similarity then the appendage could hardly make much difference from the female pov and in the case of the “lady” it was probably what was attached to the appendage that was important.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    My parents seems to have answered that by saying “headband”. …
    __________________
    TMI. get your mutilated dick out of my head….:)

  23. I have enjoyed this addition to Australian political quotes by our own Crassus:

    Palmer: ‘My wealth is four thousand million dollars, do you think I give a stuff about what you personally think?’

  24. Peter Slipper
    @PNSlipper
    ·
    10m
    That’s how it works after a candidate has been dumped. The How to Vote cards continue to get thrust into the hands of the voter at the polling booth. This is why
    @JessicaWhelan
    could still win the seat of #Lyons #Tasmania
    @abchobart

    @WINNews_Tas
    #taspol #AusPol #AusVotes
    Quote Tweet

    Alice Workman
    @workmanalice
    · 1h
    Liberals spotted still handing out how to votes for dumped candidate Jeremy Hearn at the Greenvale pre-poll.

  25. ltep says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 3:36 pm

    I don’t think politicians should sue other politicians.

    Nah and anyway it’s only the dumb ones like Leyonhjelm that need to worry, repeating and expanding on his comments again and again in public was not very bright and highlight the arrogance of the man, thinking he was untouchable.

    He deserves all that comes his way. 🙂

  26. Nostradamus @ #285 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 11:05 am

    “Libs out to $3.75 from $3.50 just now on Sportsbet. ALP in to $1.27.”

    Movement will be reversed when the 50-50 Newspoll is released on Sunday night.

    If you’re going to publish dodgy predictions, at least have the common decency to write quatrains.

  27. ltep says: Friday, May 3, 2019 at 3:39 pm

    Hopefully this farce of digging up questionable things people have said doesn’t continue for much longer.

    ****************************************************

    Hopefully, by extreme pre-vetting processes, future party/election candidates will NOT be people who have made sexual/racist etc remarks in their on-line or otherwise public persona …..

  28. It is a very valid point about tennis champ JA’s rape joke from over 20 years ago.
    Turnbull exonerated him at the time and accepted his apology but since Creasy is now seemingly the benchmark for resignations, should JA now fall on his sword?
    (FWIW I don’t think Creasy or JA before him should have resigned but Creasy had to for political expediency reasons. I wonder if Bill should weave this seeming double standard into the debate tonight, particularly if scomo goes on the attack).

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