BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
meher baba @ #50 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:42 am
Once they’re deleted or hidden, they’re not visible on your timeline, unless one of your friends (in the case of accounts that aren’t private, otherwise anyone on the internet), takes a screenshot. Therefore anyone trawling through your account isn’t going to see them.
Unbelievably I understand Ross MacDonald’s Facebook account was set to public, incredibly idiotic given the content he was posting.
A Liberal candidate has denied she made vile comments about Muslims on Facebook, insisting she’s being setup.
Jessica Whelan is running in the seat of Lyons in Tasmania and is facing calls to resign over a series of supposed messages attacking Islam and its followers.
In one alleged message, Ms Whelan said women who supported Islam should be mutilated and sold as slaves, The Mercury reports.
A comment on a video purporting to show “feminists in America begging for Sharia Law”, from a profile with Ms Whelan’s name and photograph, has been condemned by Labor.
“Round them up Donald, cut their clitoris’ (sic) off & sell them to Muslims in Muslim countries & cancel their passports,” it reads. “You’ll make a mint.”
Whats the record for disendorsements for a single party in an election campaign?
Libs currently have 2 with three others that are probably now on the edge.
Lab only has the guy in the NT senate race afaik.
The Herald Sun is reporting another liberal party candidate has been caught out on social media making derogatory remarks about muslims…
From the article itself;
“The Liberal candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons denies making derogatory comments about Muslims online, in another candidate headache for the government.
Jessica Whelan has denied she made the comments and wants an investigation into the Facebook posts bearing her name.”
Yeah, sure Jessica… someone else wrote it on your facebook page!..
This is obviously going to be the excuse used if the candidate is in a potentially winnable seat for the libs… “wasnt me.. someone else did it”..
Those comments reportedly by Ms Whelan are revolting. She should resign, if it correct.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Katharine Murphy says that the Coalition is normalising the far right with its pursuit of One Nation and Palmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/01/the-coalition-is-normalising-the-far-right-with-its-one-nation-and-palmer-deals
Jacqui Maley has racked down the wealthy Stegall backers who are going all out to see off Abbott.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/we-ve-got-a-dilemma-meet-the-liberal-backers-of-zali-steggall-out-to-retire-tony-abbott-20190501-p51j37.html
Patrick Begley tells us about a nasty little white extremist group that has the authorities talking in riddles.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/threats-from-white-extremist-group-that-tried-to-recruit-tarrant-20190501-p51j5w.html
Michael Pascoe writes, “Whoever wins government on May 18, there is one certainty: It will be a decidedly more conservative, more neo-liberal and less liberal Liberal Party than the one elected in 2016. And whether that party occupies the Treasury benches or not, it poses a problem for the good governance of Australia.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/01/the-death-of-liberals-bad-for-liberals/
Google this string to see Niki Savva’s take on the campaign so far. It’s quite good
bulldog-morrison-can-only-nip-at-shortens-heels/news-story/1afa91238c38e8f68013810bc6a1319a
David Crowe writes that Bill Shorten is facing an explosive political row over his climate change policy as industry warns of rising costs and a new economic study predicts 167,000 fewer jobs by 2030 under the Labor plan. Morrison and the MSM will be all over it.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/new-modelling-to-unleash-explosive-row-over-climate-change-costings-20190501-p51j5e.html
Paula Matthewson explains why Morrison should not have done a deal with Clive Palmer.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/30/clive-palmer-scott-morrison/
Jess Irvine explores why Australia swings between to flawed parties.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-australia-swings-between-two-flawed-parties-20190501-p51j48.html
In a very sensible move Labor has flagged greater scrutiny of the government’s $1.2 billion “choice and affordability fund” for Catholic and independent schools, raising concerns about how the money will be distributed to the sectors.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-flags-new-approach-to-government-s-1-2-billion-fund-for-private-schools-20190501-p51ixi.html
David Wroe outlines Penny Wong’s foreign affairs policy speech in which she said a female foreign minister of Asian heritage would boost Australia’s reputation and race-baiting by politicians is harming Australia’s image abroad.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/as-a-female-of-asian-heritage-i-would-boost-australia-s-reputation-as-foreign-minister-penny-wong-says-20190501-p51j2e.html
It looks like a dinosaur got under a dinosaur’s skin on the campaign trail yesterday. Craig Kelly is all class.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/liberal-mp-denies-intimidating-climate-change-activist-in-a-dinosaur-suit-20190501-p51j5c.html
Dana McCauley tells us that yesterday the Coalition promised cheaper medicines for 1.4 million Australians – including cancer patients – ramping up the battle over health policy as Labor unveiled a $116 million plan to tackle obesity and other preventative conditions.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-promises-cheaper-medicines-while-labor-unveils-obesity-plan-20190501-p51j1r.html
Michael West tells us that Tony Abbott has come under pressure from Warringah independent, Zali Steggall, over the Government’s decision to approve the sale of the new Northern Beaches Hospital, and 42 other Australian hospitals, to an obscure company in the Cayman Islands.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/zali-steggall-takes-on-tony-abbott-over-hospitals-to-tax-haven-deal/
Michelle Grattan writes that whether or not it’s some sort of record, the Liberals’ loss of two Victorian candidates in a single day is way beyond what Oscar Wilde would have dubbed carelessness.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-victorian-liberal-candidates-find-social-media-footprints-lethal-116383
Clive Palmer’s United Australia party has taken extraordinary steps to avoid a repeat of the “Jacqui Lambie problem” by getting candidates to sign contracts that require them to return $400,000 in election support if they win a seat but subsequently leave the party.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/clive-palmers-candidates-required-to-pay-400000-if-they-win-seat-but-leave-party
Perhaps we can learn a thing or two from the communists about childcare writes Kristine Ziwica.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-can-learn-a-thing-or-two-from-the-communists-about-childcare-20190501-p51iwt.html
Elizabeth Knight says that after the rather lacklustre annual report from ANZ the mysterious share price response conveyed the impression that investors took the view the worst was over for banks.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-s-share-price-gain-baffles-markets-20190501-p51j3v.html
Noel Towell writes that as the body count of candidates mounts, the culture wars that have riven the Victorian Liberal Party in recent years cannot be ignored.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/as-body-count-mounts-liberal-insiders-dread-the-next-revelation-20190501-p51j55.html
There have been calls for a Royal Commission into the health industry since a lack of integrity is evident in the field, writes Dr Leong Ng and Dr Anthony Pun, OAM.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/our-health-industry-needs-a-commonwealth-integrity-commission,12630
“There’s a flood of dismal economic news on the horizon”. Warns Stephen Koukoulas. He says the Liberal Party is campaigning in the election on a “strong economy” and being “good economic managers”, bold claims that fly in the face of the latest score card for the economy.
https://thekouk.com/item/676-watch-out-australia-there-s-a-flood-of-dismal-economic-news-on-the-horizon.html
Shane Wright reports that house sales have collapsed to their lowest level since Paul Keating was prime minister, dragging down property values across the country and putting the Reserve Bank under pressure to deliver an interest rate cut next week.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/house-sales-tumble-to-levels-not-seen-since-keating-as-prices-fall-20190501-p51j1c.html
Steve Dickson’s comments reveal an ugly truth about our attitude towards migrant sex workers and the vitriol exposed in the footage represents more than the views of one drunken cowboy on holiday with the NRA.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/steve-dicksons-comments-reveal-an-ugly-truth-about-our-attitude-towards-migrant-sex-workers
The local boss of Aldi says the arrival of its German arch-rival in Australia is a win for consumers, writes Patrick Hatch.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/competition-is-good-aldi-boss-sees-no-threat-from-rival-kaufland-20190501-p51j2h.html
Andrew Hughes explains how digital advertising is shaping this election campaign.
https://theconversation.com/facebook-videos-targeted-texts-and-clive-palmer-memes-how-digital-advertising-is-shaping-this-election-campaign-115629
Another day at the Leyonhjelm/Hanson-Young trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/01/sarah-hanson-young-defamation-trial-senator-denies-saying-all-men-are-rapists
A Bloomberg analyst says that it’s foreign investors and retirees who finally took the heat out of Australia’s property boom.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/foreigners-helped-pop-our-property-bubble-20190501-p51iw2.html
Populists across the world are significantly more likely to believe in conspiracy theories about vaccinations, global warming and the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to a landmark global survey shared exclusively with the Guardian. Hardly surprising!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/revealed-populists-more-likely-believe-conspiracy-theories-vaccines
A good article from Peter FitzSimons on the Israel Falau issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/taniela-tupou-can-i-ask-you-what-would-jesus-do-20190501-p51j5y.html
Julian Assange’s lawyer says the WikiLeaks founder faces significant medical issues and possible extradition to the United States as he begins a “harsh”, 50-week jail sentence for breaching bail in the United Kingdom.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/05/02/julian-assange-sentenced-lawyer/
The Washington post says that Robert Mueller wrote a letter in late March complaining to US Attorney-General William Barr that his four-page memo to Congress “did not fully capture the context, nature, and substance” of his probe into President Donald Trump.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mueller-complained-to-barr-about-his-summary-of-russia-probe-report-20190501-p51iw3.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe and the electoral apocalypse.
Great work from David Pope.
And Cathy Wilcox.
An absolute cracker from Peter Broelman!
From Matt Golding.
Mark David poetically contrasts the two campaigns.
Zanetti gets back to normal.
Sean Leahy gets to the reason for all the early voting.
Alan Moir and an awful looking Porline.
Some good advice from Jon Kudelka to aspiring candidates.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/35ceb6afa74f2229a1bbf1a03e57be49?width=1024
From the US
Of course it’s more difficult to delete comments you post on other posts, unless you can remember everywhere you’ve commented over the years – an almost impossibility in my view.
beguiledagain: “What was particularly impressive was his ability to defend and explain what are unpopular proposals for many Australians.”
I didn’t see it, so I’ll take your word for it that he did a good job.
But what still puzzles me is why the ALP brains trust ever thought it was a good idea to put him in a situation in which he would need to be defending and explaining difficult stuff in this way.
The last three Federal political leaders to win government from opposition – Howard, Rudd and Abbott – put themselves in a position in which they basically weren’t obliged to explain anything, and it was the Government that was feeling all the pressure. Even Hawke in 1983 talked largely in generalities and high-falutin’ concepts of bringing us all together.
Whether Labor wins or loses, or we end up with a hung parliament, I still won’t understand what prompted them to persist with a big target taxation strategy, particularly after Turnbull was deposed.
Thanks BK.
I follow Zali on Instagram and a feature of her posts are the number of women in them, so Maley’s findings don’t surprise me at all. I really hope Steggall can pull off a win, as difficult a task at it is for her.
And what, if any, impact will disendorsements have on on the primary or 2pp vote?
We know that if a Liberal candidate makes an un-PC comment, even strong enough to cause a riot in Marrickville or Melbourne, the mainstream media will just airbrush it. Plus there are plenty of LNP voters who simply agree. You think it’s going to shift their vote?
If an ALP candidate made an even minor slip-up, the mainstream media would demonise them as if they murdered the Queen.
Those on the other side of politics probably want us to fight fair.
I say to them, “Nah!”
There needs to be a national monument somewhere, probably beside Bondi Pavilion where names of politicians and media types can be chiseled very deeply into a huge block of stone to signify their active/passive support of climate denial.
The evening news could sho a short clip of the stone mason carving each name as they sprout their rubbish.
Then as the sea level starts to climb up the monument we will all know who Celaya the action required to mitigate climate change.
Butler doing a decent job here
Meher Baba – I assume what prompted them to persist with a big target taxation strategy was the wish to have a mandate to pursue a big target taxation strategy. A calculated risk sure (and in my personal view an appropriate one to take). It’s the prerogative of political parties to decide the level of risk they’re comfortable with given the environment they’re in at the time. If the ALP wishes to adopt a higher risk/higher reward stance in this case, and to be accountable for the outcome either way, in my opinion they’re doing what political parties should be doing. There are also risks in the small target strategy- if you win at the polls you’re hamstrung by your limited mandate, and attempts to make major policy changes post election that haven’t been flagged in advance trash your own party’s legitimacy, and the trust of the electorate generally.
From my doorknocking in Warringah, women in the 35-60 year old bracket are either much more likely to be voting for Zali or more forthcoming when asked who they would be voting for compared to men of a similar age.
Thanks BK. The Whelan case in Lyons will test whether the Libs have any real commitment to vetting candidates for xenophobic views. The other candidates dumped were unlikely to win. Whereas the Libs would love to win Lyons to make up for Victorian losses. I predict they will tough it out with Whelan unless there is too much media uproar.
* Liberal candidate for Lyons Jessica Whelan has denied accusations she posted social media comments saying Muslims should not live in Australia. Instead, she said the Facebook post had been “digitally manipulated” and would be referred to authorities. Labor said she should be disendorsed.
Dogs breakfast
Perhaps they could open a new wing in the Australian War Memorial. One floor could feature the war on Science and the other the Cultural Wars. Prominent science and culture war warriors could be featured in heroic poses, with the bodies of the scientists and historians whose careers they destroyed shown underneath their feet. Another display could acknowledge their corporate backers.
Bob Katter does his uymost yo improve the tone of political discourse:
In a typically understated press release, Bob Katter has called Warren Entsch a “useless bastard”, and a “big, fat, blood-sucking, useless, toad.”
GG
As I predicted re Whelan not stepping down. It would be nice to get some expert opinions on how easy it is to manipulate facebook pages. Also, depending on the dates posted, why has she only complained about the “manipulation” now?
Socrates, I just think these deniers need something tangible now to show that their ideas have solid, concrete consequences and that what ever happens in the future, their name is indelibly associated with those results.
max: ” It’s the prerogative of political parties to decide the level of risk they’re comfortable with given the environment they’re in at the time. If the ALP wishes to adopt a higher risk/higher reward stance in this case, and to be accountable for the outcome either way, in my opinion they’re doing what political parties should be doing. ”
A counter argument that many Labor supporters I know would put to that proposition is that the highest priority right now is for Labor to get into government and do something meaningful about climate change. Are these tax policies – none of which have better than an outside chance of getting through the Senate in their current form – more important than climate change? Or health or education?
I’m not detecting a cunning plan behind all this, but something more akin to a stuff-up. Labor might still get away with the stuff-up, but it was a risk they arguably never needed to take in the first place.
I didn’t see it, so I’ll take your word for it that he did a good job.
Shorten was actually applauded for his contributions, on more than one occasion. Morrison was not applauded at all.
Socrates @ #69 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:32 am
I’ve had friends whose Facebook accounts have been hacked, but the hackers usually do so to spam their friends messages about promotional stuff, not to post vile comments on other posts.
Having 2 factor identification is essential for at least being alerted to when your account is accessed by a device that isn’t one you normally use to access your account.
DB
True. There does need to be a line in the sand drawn on climate change. The denialists seem to imagine that if they can lie their way through this election it will all go away again by next time. Instead, it will be getting worse at each election from now on.
@meher baba
But it’s also an economic balance. Can you implement climate change policies that will cost, without an ability to fund them?
As anyone asked ScoMo what the medium-term cost of inaction on climate is?
Doing nothing doesn’t mean incurring no cost.
FWIW, the local paper The Norther Star, conducted an online poll of 800 people (for the seat of Page) and reports that only 20% voted for the sitting NP member, Kevin Hogan. 70% went to Deegan, the ALP candidate.
Make of this what you will.
I was thinking about the Franking Dividends proposal by Labor and it would have been very sellable, if say a Universal Basic Income scheme (which Greens propose) was being offered as well.
For BK’s ‘From America’ section. Very relevant here as well as there………………….
In SA the effect of acting on climate change (turning off Leigh Creek brown coal power station) has been to lower power prices.
Speaking of economics, and I hesitate to distract from scandals of Liberal candidate selection or lies ScumMo is saying about climate action costs, but there is another bigger lie. ScumMo says we are going well because of their Strong Plan. Next Tuesday we will see if the RBA will drop rates even further, to below recession levels. I wonder how he will lie about that?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/05/01/rate-cut-property/
I think Democrats should impeach Barr.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-democrats-consider-holding-barr-in-contempt-of-congress/2019/05/01/a291313a-6c22-11e9-a66d-a82d3f3d96d5_story.html?utm_term=.69973b317054
Seems Hunt is on the nose with his local paper.
C@tmomma
You about?
Tell me, do you still have a copy of that draft copy of the Coalition strategy from the other month??
If so, out of curiosity, how is the current Coalition strategy and tactics marrying up to the contents of that draft copy?
Ask Campbell Newman how his “Strong” plan worked out…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/13/campell-newman-uses-strong-phrase-21-times-in-election-soundbite-overdose
@KJ
You can’t estimate the cost of climate change due to unknown destruction from pollution to land clearing to rubbish.
How dare you put a number on it – this is not private business.
100s or 1000s of years of damage by humans and you want it to be budget balanced.
This sounds like another code word from the liberal play book.
When you get ridiculously large numbers like this, most people just shrug and move on to the next topic.
$264 billion has now apparently morphed into one trillion dollars!!!
The one article I most wanted to read from BKs offerings this morning (thanks BK, as always) was Nikki Savva’s contribution from the Australian. I have googled it as BK instructed but the request keeps getting rejected by the paywall. Has anyone else had any success with it?
Endangered LNP Senator Ian Macdonald doing a Jim Molan in Queensland by telling voters to vote below the line.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-02/ian-macdonald-breaks-ranks-with-lnp-preferences-federal-election/11065400
Confessions
I agree re Barr being impeached.
On the likely interest rate cut. Despite the rhetoric of class war and tax cuts, most large bank depositors are wealthy retirees. If this demographic woke up and switched from Foxtel news they might realise that a dead economy killed by the Liberals is the real threat to their dividend and interest based income. Labor restarting the economy might improve their investment returns. Then they would not need to fleece the taxman so much.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/clive-palmers-candidates-required-to-pay-400000-if-they-win-seat-but-leave-party
This has to be one of the silliest things i’ve heard about Palmer.
If i was a UAP MP and wanted out, i’d just vote how i wanted too and ignore any directions from Clive.
Would he try to take legal action because i didn’t vote the way he wants??
If he wanted to throw me out of his party fine.
KJ: “But it’s also an economic balance. Can you implement climate change policies that will cost, without an ability to fund them?”
There’s lots of ways of finding additional funding, including cutting ineffective or unnecessary programs. But you can only do these things if you are sitting on the government benches. And you can only bring in new/increased taxes if you can gain the support of the Senate.
Getting into government gives you lots of levers to use. Taking a principled stand and remaining in opposition doesn’t give you anything at all.
KJ says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 8:48 am
@meher baba
But it’s also an economic balance. Can you implement climate change policies that will cost, without an ability to fund them?
Do we as a species want our societies to survive?
@ABCnews
Liberal candidate for Wills called for action to prevent gay people from being elected
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-01/liberal-candidate-for-wills-wants-fewer-homosexuals-elected/11063002
Fisher has been embraced by the Rupeverse, Costello world and the more thick of the ABC stable. It gives the Liberals cover for their outrageous lies they have been running 24-7 on mainstream advertising and social media.
In my view this propaganda is cutting through. Big time.
I’m yet to see any evidence of a real drop off in the combined labor-green vote or any indication that the LNP are going to get that 5% drop back in its primary vote BUT I reckon ‘low information’ voters in the ‘others’ column are falling for it.
Labor faces two other problems. Firstly, it’s advertising is not effective. The protest outrage it is meant to engender isn’t cutting through. Largely because people are tired of hearing about how bad this mob are. They are used to this level of incompetence and have come to accept it. Alas.
Secondly, the wiggle and Bob Brown act is killing Labor big time in marginal seats: the LNP say that the Greens will run Labor. The Greens say they’ll hold Labor to ransom. Folk in the middle considering voting labor and more concerned with their own immediate material struggles than the Greens utopia are saying “yeah, nah” I’m not risking a vote for Labor if it means getting THAT.
Frankly the Wiggle is as popular and as woke as Pepe Le Pew. That convoy over the last two weeks must have been paid for by the Queensland LNP – it was so effective in shoring up the LNP in up to 6 seats that would have otherwise lost in the sunshine state. Briefly is right about the Greens.
Presumably if the RBA cuts interest rates next week, Morrison will proclaim “Interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government!”
@Paul_Karp
Electoral commission accused of failing to investigate Palmer candidates #auspol #ausvotes
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/electoral-commission-accused-of-failing-to-investigate-palmer-candidates
Citizen
“$264 billion has now apparently morphed into one trillion dollars!!!”
That is laughable. The entire manufacturing (10%) and resources (7%) sectors of our economy are worth less than that.
I cannot recall an election whee one side has told so many shameless lies, been called on them, and yet kept telling them. Have a good day all.
@catmomma
SkyNews talking head said Labor worried about Central Coast seats. Death tax and retiree tax is cutting through. Are you getting much feedback on the ground?
Has anyone seen any images of the FB posts whcih Ms Whelan says weren’t hers?
Seems to me this can be clarified very, very easily by someone who has a bit of knowledge about the platform and how easy or otherwise it is to nobble another person’s comments.
If the comments are shown to be hers, it’s hard to see how she could survive. And even if she does, it’s a terrible look for the Libs, because again, it feeds into already strong preconceptions about them.
Socrates: “On the likely interest rate cut. Despite the rhetoric of class war and tax cuts, most large bank depositors are wealthy retirees. If this demographic woke up and switched from Foxtel news they might realise that a dead economy killed by the Liberals is the real threat to their dividend and interest based income. Labor restarting the economy might improve their investment returns. Then they would not need to fleece the taxman so much.”
That argument sounds very much like the line of “you’ll all be winners under my government: either directly or else indirectly, through a more efficient and powerful economy”. This is the line that oppositions have traditionally run all around the world in order to win government: two cars in every garage, two chickens in every pot, etc, etc.. It’s far less usual for oppositions to run with the “some of you will be winners and quite a few of you will be losers.” I guess it worked for Hugo Chavez back in 1999, but Venezuela is a society that is strongly divided by race and class. It has never been my impression up to now that middle class Australians have ever been greatly moved by the argument that the government should “soak the rich.” Maybe that’s about to change: we’ll find out in a couple of weeks.
Adios for now: I have people to see and things to do.