BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
Those shots of Morrison in Tasmania were embarrassing.
@josh butler
BREAKING: scandal erupts as bartender accuses PM of skipping out on beer tab
Leigh Sales does not have time to post here as she is sorting out dinner reservations with Scomo.
Shorten has even almost caught up with Morrison on the West’s highly weighted (to Morrison) “Who won the day?” with the score being 8-7-and the rest tied…………………………..
The real Dave says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 5:27 pm
From past comments I would have thought she’d be on the phone to Malcolm. 🙂
Darn @ #438 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:20 pm
Personally, I don’t think Morrison has landed a punch and nothing has changed. Sure, Newspoll changed their polling rules half way through the third quarter of the game. So what?
Labor supporters should not be easily distracted, focus their attention on persuading the shouty alternative and just continue to smash the Tories as they have been for the last couple of years.
But, I’m in Victoria and Labor is going to smash them here.
Zali on SSM.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1123850856552697856
Thanks GG
Just a word of warning re: the poster known as “Evan”.
He previously posted here as “Evan Parsons” and was discredited as a concern-troll – a notional Rudd Labor supporter — but who could only proffer doom and gloom for Labor, particularly with very sexist and anti-Gillard tropes being regularly trotted out. Not quite as bad as “Thomas Paine”, but in that league. He is best avoided.
Nath thinks he’s new at was he is doing, but Evan Parsons is a good example of how unoriginal he is.
Of course, these characters typically bob up around election time — like weeds after the first spring rains. They’re all best avoided.
Regards
Darren
Another small sign of climate change perhaps. I have just noticed the sound of cicadas chirping away outside my window, something I have never heard in May in Melbourne before.
Greensborough Growler @ #442 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:24 pm
GG, does anyone in AFL use the torpedo punt anymore? I know that in both Union and League, it seems to have gone the way of the Dodo.
palaly………..seat odds in WA shortening/lengthening in places like Canning and Curtin are next to meaningless. The day Labor wins Curtin, the Liberals would cease to exist. On top of this to look at the remainder to see they have moved a cent or two this way or that, is almost as meaningless. The real action has to be in the marginal seats and in WA it is all down to Swan, Hasluck, Pearce and Stirling. Beyond this, for Labor, is cream on the cake. Of the 20 seats you listed many are not even on the radar for Labor and never have been eg………….Kooyong – which is a little like Curtin – the home of the Blues not the other side. If and when, Labor wins some or all of the four marginals above, it will be time for Morrison to move out………………………….
So, yet another day of Lib-Lab incompetence re their candidates.
Given their internal stupidity whilst in Govt is it any surprise they still put up these dopey candidates …?
You just can’t trust the L/NP and Labor.
DL………..are you sure?
They’ve been very many dirty tricks played by Liberal campaigners – removing Labor and Independent corflutes and such. Wentworth is particularly bad for this I am told. I am also told the Canberra Libs are extra nasty this year with “Zed” paraphernalia supplanting other candidates all around the ACT. ABC have not reported on this, but you’d think Senator Zed must be in trouble given these lengths!
Of course, once something nasty happens to Saint Tony, their ABC leads with it as a top story, screaming on their front page with the requisite “Tony Abbott says…” stenography masquerading as journalism.
The ABC needs a good clean out after this election.
Ms Whelan and Mr Morrison should both be asked to give a commitment that she will fully cooperate with the AFP inquiry, including by making phones, computers etc available for forensic examination.
Darc @ #460 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:40 pm
The thing about the torp is the hang time. In AFL, that gives the opposition time to get in to position to defend. So around the ground it’s rarely used. It’s occaisonally used as a novelty to shoot for goal and really does get the fans excited when it is unleashed.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/02/australian-federal-election-2019-liveblog-day-21
Looks like Steggall got the better of Abbott. Good on her.
Michael @ #465 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:45 pm
Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn. Nor do voters.
[DL………..are you sure?]
Yep. Syntax and tone match as does geographic locale.
Of course, only Mr Bowe could do the requisite IP address matching, but he may not wish to bother if “Evan Parsons” was not actually banned last time. I cannot recall how it ended, but it may not have been a ban as such.
Darren Laver @ #461 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:44 pm
The ABC is more balanced than it’s ever been.
It’s only the rabid partisans that get outraged by the ABC.
GG,
Mike Williamson must have been a fair age – Jesaulenko’s mark was 50 years ago next season.
That kick of Malcolm Blight’s in the link you provided could have been kicked from 5-6 metres further out and still cleared the line easily.
But for classic remarks from departed football commentators, nothing will ever surpass Jack Dyer’s “Arms reaching up like giant testicles” – I don’t know whether audio of that still exists.
So far the national polling data shows that the Coalition and Labor primary votes are moving in the same direction whether it is up or down, so can’t really say Coalition is making any real gains against Labor.
So all it comes down to is a “crude” guess on preferences from the minor parties.
Current polling data right now shows Labor has gained at least 2 points on its primary vote from last election, whilst the Liberals has lost about 3.
This sums up much that is wrong with conservatives.
The Guardian blog
Darren Laver @ #469 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:47 pm
This is not actually news. Evan was clearly miffed when Rudd was deposed, tried to run interference against Gillard and eventually sulked off for a few years. He’s entitled to his views. But, concern trolls are pretty easily identified imho.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #470 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:50 pm
He got laughed out of the room for that.
Hey Rex,
Have worked out how Labor can lie to voters and still regain trust yet?
Steve Watson @ #471 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:48 pm
Jack was a “good ordinary footballer”.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #473 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 5:54 pm
What ?
And a bit more Palaly about those odds…….Canning gets a mention as the odds shortening to the Libs – also almost as meaningless……..In the last 20 or so years, Labor has not held this seat since 2001……….and has only held it for 6 or so years in the 1980s. It was once a National (CP) seat and has changed out of recognition because of the growth of population around Mandurah……..Currently it is held by Andrew Hasties and with a margin of nearly 7% and a much as it would be extra nice to see him go, I think it would have to be an absolute disaster for the Libs, on May Day, if he loses. So, again, the movement in odds in such a seat is just a meaningless as many others on your list.
Abbott was actually stupid enough to say during the debate with Steggal, when it turned to EVs, after saying how we love our utes and that there were no suitable EVs for Aussie conditions (debunked by compere Speers and Steggal) and that we did not make cars here any more! And whose fault was that Tony? Massive own goal.
As for hacking of social media, I would like to make the following announcement. Should any poster on this site under the name “Socrates” claim that even a word that is spoken by Abbott, ScumMo or Frydenberg during this election campaign is actually true, then you will know my account has been hacked.
Abbott channelling some Brexit-style populism it would appear. One of the arch-Brexiteers Michael Gove said “I think we’ve all had enough of experts” (or WTTE) while being interviewed prior to the EU referendum.
Given the more technocratic bent a projected Shorten ALP government will probably take, the attack lines for the L-NP reactionary-loonie rump left over from the election will be pretty predictable. I just hope Shorten’s famed forward planning has also thought ahead to countering the Murdoch-LNP backlash that will begin once the losers grow tired of lashing each other.
Out of the dodgy duo, you’d have to say Shorten is winning the campaign ahead of Morrison so far.
Those tightening polls must be a worry for Shorten though.
Zali sums it up pretty well. I’m betting the Libs would love to have her as a candidate. it’s the battle between the current generation and the Boomers.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1123854708874076160
The ABC giving a climate deniers report on the cost of action so much attention… and giving almost zero about how much it would cost not to do anything… which has been argued by many other groups, shows how great and balanced ABC is… according to Rex.
But hey I guess Rex doesn’t care about acting on climate change.
Nicko @ #481 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:00 pm
Non-partisans saw Probyn dismantling the gentleman who authored the report.
REX DOUGLAS: “You just can’t trust LNP and Labor”.
Vote Pauline!!!!!
Has it actually been noted yet that despite the continued interest in turf wars here, the fact that the ALP are running a no-hope candidate in Melbourne, and the Greens are putting minimum effort into Cooper suggests that the respective organizations are (just for once 😉 ) smarter than Bludgers?
I wonder if the AEC are secretly grateful for the explosion in pre-polling? With most electorates now well above 100,000 enrolled (and no prospect of an enlargement of the House), even having 20% of voters not turning up on the day itself would ease the burden on polling booth workers.
Have any experienced polling officials who frequent PB noticed workload trends in either direction? Hopefully we never replicate the experiences of the recent Indonesian election, with some poll booth workers apparently dying of exhaustion!
I saw Probyn’s interview, was pretty weak. He never asked once to this guy why aren’t you pricing in the cost of inaction.
The ABC did give the Fisher claims on climate action costs way too much attention. They were not balanced or a peer reviewed publication. Given the background of the writer it would have been appropriate for an independent or opposing expert to review or have some write of reply. That didn’t happen, so a heavily slanted political piece was treated as “independent evidence”, which it wasn’t. I do not think Aunty lived up to its charter on that one.
Another ex Liberal minister on the Drum.
Nostradamus @ #483 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:05 pm
What’s your prediction re Pauline’s result ?
GG: [torp (torpedo punt)] “It’s occaisonally used as a novelty to shoot for goal and really does get the fans excited when it is unleashed.”
Also it just feels really good to get a good one away…
Hearing what Abbott says about too may experts running things reveals just how wedded and shackled he is to his Catholic Christian fundamentalism. Biblical adherents have always had a problem with people who dig around for the truth, as Galileo would so attest.
Abbott’s actually dangerous I think, and the damage he’s already done to this country is what someone should be costing.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 5:54 pm
Yesterday I commented about how important it was for Labor to build trust with voters and one way was to try and implement the policies it has taken to the election if they are elected.
I pointed out that this was exposed as a failing with the Gillard Government around climate change legislation. It gave Abbott the opportunity to push the “lie” meme.
You suggested that a Shorten Government should be willing to do something similar, so I asked you how would get the voter’s trust back after being seen to lie to them again.
Just wondering if you had an answer yet? 🙂
Labor partisans seem to have a defeatest complex.
The last 9 years has really knocked them for 6.
E. G. Theodore @ #493 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:09 pm
Yeah, the Zen of the execution of the perfect torpedo is exhillerating
I don’t know which is the most distracting here………those who are doomsayers and are upset Labor is not leading 55-45 or similar; the constant harbingers of bad, worse, annihilation for Labor with Shorten; those who just come here to stir things up and finally, those who want to continue any of the Green wars, the Rudd-Gillard wars or cannot find anything positive to say about anything.
Genuine Labor supporters here are hoping for a Labor victory come May Day – but – and it is worth repeating, such is the nature of the electorate with a decline in trust of both major parties and both holding below 40% of the primary vote, that any one of Labor victory, Hung Parliament or LNP victory is a possibility………………….
The Drum basically calling Brian Fisher modelling out of date .. False assumptions.
Fake BAE modelling