First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.
Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.
Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.
Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.
The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).
Liberals taken over by extremists loks like ‘Extreme rightwing bar scene from Starwars’
ZiNGER!
I think everybody is now comfortable that the AEC can run an election over 3 weeks.
I think the fact the electorate is embracing early voting reflects the high regard the AEC is held.
Rational Leftist
There have been quite a few studies on the effect of HTV prefs. My unprofessional level of understanding is that it depends on the party handing out the cards. Labor and Lib voters are more likely than Green and other minor party voters to follow the instructions. For Greens voters HTV makes almost no difference but for Labor it’s worth a few %. The Senate is different where the parties can direct the prefs after the first six votes if not allocated. I seriously struggled to find six parties in the Senate. Half the ballot was right wing nutcases; Rise Up, Australian Conservatives, Shooters, One Nation, Palmer.
doyley
says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:30 pm
nath,
When I was a young bloke I really had the hots for Oliver Newton John and loved Grease.
After a few beers I used to love singing my favourite Grease song “ You’r the Wizard of Oz “ until I realised it was actually “ Your’r the one that I want “
The joy of being young.
______________________
🙂
I don’t blame you about Olivia. I had a crush on her when I was 7. I’ve always had a discerning eye, even as a pre-pubescent.
Good. Sales came across as belligerent and rushed. Bill handled it well and milked every second for ALP positives. I am happy with that.
Tricot says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:19 pm
Stop insulting the good people of Wonthaggi. A great old coal mining town with a memorable Working Mens’ Club – good beer and steak as I remember it. Well, at least better than at Leongatha where they were all snoby dairy farmers back in the day………………
————————–
With the death of Les Murray we are looking for another great working class poet. You just put in a strong bid. And for the pedants I do not support coal mining but I do support coal miners. I definitely support workers clubs.
Tricot says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:19 pm
Stop insulting the good people of Wonthaggi. A great old coal mining town with a memorable Working Mens’ Club – good beer and steak as I remember it. Well, at least better than at Leongatha where they were all snoby dairy farmers back in the day………………
————————–
With the death of Les Murray we are looking for another great working class poet. You just put in a strong bid. And for the pedants I do not support coal mining but I do support coal miners. I definitely support workers clubs.
OK, now to read from earlier comments.
My favorite line from Bill tonight…’it’s eating the budget’
Gold
There’s a whole politico-media milieu that holds aggressive, hectoring interviews are the only way to get to The Truth of any matter.
This is incorrect.
Such interviews generate heat, but no light. They inform no-one.
Sales is a pathetic, bogan nobody who has been elevated to undeserving “superstar” status because she has no shame in interrupting her guests, inserting her own opinions and losing her cool with them. ANYONE can do that. It is NOT a talent.
That she is regarded as a suitable debate moderator by ad-man ScoMo is proof enough of her partisanship. Spruikers like Morrison do not push for neutrality.
Thanks Diogenes.
Just finished watching Leigh Sales interviewing Bill Shorten..
FWIW I thought it was an excellent interview by both Leigh & Bill..
..focused almost entirely on policy & Leigh asked the hard questions as she should. Bill answered very well and looked relaxed and confident when replying..
..best Leigh Sales interview I’ve ever seen..
The issue is not the media going hard on Labor, it’s that they never do the same to the Libs.
Just imagine if Labor had somehow funnelled $80M to the Cayman Islands to a company set up by a Labor minister. The media would be absolutely feral with the story for the whole campaign. Every question would be about it.
Instead, with the Libs, it’s off the media radar in a couple of days. I bet if Morrison deigns to go on 7.30 that the issue isn’t even raised.
“lmao. Nobody here’s ever getting preselected for anything remotely winnable.”
Definitely not me, that’s for sure! I’m one of those terribly evil dual citizens who’s banished because I might be an Irish spy or something lol
GG
If Morrison loses the election, maybe he can quit his seat and captain the “Endeavour Replica” next year as it recreates the never-happened circumnavigation of Australia. They could finish in Botany Bay in Morrison’s old electorate, where the never-happened canoes can come out and welcome Captain Cook/Morrison.
We just need to make sure no-one decides to recreate the ‘first shooting’ of the local aboriginal people!
” Sales is trying hard but she is letting Bill shine in a difficult interview.”
Whats becoming obvious in the campaign is that Shorten has put in the hard yards over his time as LOTO in terms of developing his abilities to speak too and connect with the punters. Invested time in lots of town hall meetings. Now getting a good return on that investment.
Markjs, imagine if she’d asked him to tell the audience how Labor policies would work, rather than just yelling Morrison talking points at him, and then talking over him when he tried to answer the question about the question.
frednk,
8 million views? Luxury… (“I Was Only 19” is a good’un, though.)
Mine hasn’t quite made it to 20 thousand views:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzGVE_VIbgA
PB more like this tonight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3dvbM6Pias
You called it Bill, cause that’s where she belongs.
If you just renounced your Irish citizenship, there’s no possible way you could be a spy for Ireland after that. Countries aren’t allowed to use non-citizens for their espionage efforts. That’s a fact.
doyley @ #749 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 6:30 pm
Olivia’s brother?
Assange gets 50 weeks
Rational Leftist
But that would be part of Ireland’s ‘cunning plan’.
No-one would ever suspect!
@Diogenes
“The Senate is different where the parties can direct the prefs after the first six votes if not allocated.”
This isn’t true. The parties are unable to direct preferences at all. If a voter does not allocate preferences past the first 6 (or however many they choose to allocate) then their vote (or what remains of it) exhausts.
Funniest line tonight was Bill’s about the Libs looking like the bar scene from Star Wars.
Diogenes @ 8:32pm
The parties can’t “direct the [Senate] prefs after the first six votes if not allocated”. After all the parties listed by the voter have been elected or eliminated, the vote simply exhausts and doesn’t go to any of the parties remaining in the count. The only way the parties can influence Senate preferences is by listing those preferences on their HTV card, and having voters follow the card when filling out the ballot paper.
HughB @ #744 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 7:58 pm
Good onya, ya Pommy Bastard.
My (now passed away) English husband used to be really sensitive to being called a pommy bastard. I think it was a real English thing about bastards being born out of wedlock. A real insult.
So I called him a bastard every day until he got used to it. lol
He also got used to an Aussie woman who could swear with the best of them, but butter would not melt in her mouth in certain company, and who could drink tea with the little finger sticking out or make billy tea over a camp fire. lol
Dan,
I only had eyes for Olivia !
Cheers
Greensborough Growler @ #750 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 8:00 pm
P1ssed myself laughing.
frednk says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:31 pm
I think everybody is now comfortable that the AEC can run an election over 3 weeks.
I think the fact the electorate is embracing early voting reflects the high regard the AEC is held.
————————————-
I have scutineered at elections for over 30 years and have great confidence in the AEC and our election system.. AS a friend send recently “thank god for the pencil” However, I think 3 weeks of prepoll is stupid. One week with prepolls open to 7.00pm would be sufficient. I have been told that it was the government not the AEC that decided on 3 weeks. That is a decision that should be the right of the AEC not the government.
“Mos Eisley spaceport. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.”
I’ve voted.
I managed to get to 13 on my senate ballot before I no longer cared. I’m in NSW.
BB..
..that interview reminded me so much of the interviews that the likes of David Frost, Jeremy Paxman & the best of them all, Robin Day used to do..
..almost totally focused on policy, interrupting appropriately, yet still enough air to allow the Bill to enunciate much of Labor’s policy platform..
..really, really good imho..
For which thing?
Jenauthor
Thanks for clarifying that. A very good way of putting it.
A special mention to Puffy also for her comments.
AR …. for skipping bail.
Sportsbet odds have moved in Labor’s favour.
$1.33 / 3.30 Monday
$1.30 / 3.50 today
nath says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:32 pm
I don’t blame you about Olivia. I had a crush on her when I was 7. I’ve always had a discerning eye, even as a pre-pubescent.
—————————–
Nath,
How is that 14 year old from Collingwood you spoke about a few months ago?
“…until you go online and see comments about The Last Jedi…”
Jaeger @ #782 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 8:16 pm
Yep, that’s the one. Liberal Party HQ.
nath, doyley:
What about that Go-Gos song from about the same time – Alex The Seal!
Assange cops a year for breach of bail.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/01/julian-assange-jailed-for-50-weeks-for-breaching-bail-in-2012?CMP=share_btn_tw
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:37 pm
“lmao. Nobody here’s ever getting preselected for anything remotely winnable.”
Definitely not me, that’s for sure! I’m one of those terribly evil dual citizens who’s banished because I might be an Irish spy or something lol
——————-
I have to ask. Is that orange or green.
“If you just renounced your Irish citizenship, there’s no possible way you could be a spy for Ireland after that. Countries aren’t allowed to use non-citizens for their espionage efforts. That’s a fact.”
Hehe true. I’d never renounce it anyway. Being a citizen of Ireland and by extension the EU definitely has it’s advantages!
Darn @ #786 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 8:17 pm
Thank you, Darn. 🙂
I’ll be watching Sales/Morrison closely to see if she enforces the standard she applied to Shorten and insists that he doesn’t mention Shorten or Labor, in which case the interview will be fifteen minutes of silence.
After Episodes 1-3, I’m surprised there were any reviews of 7-9…
(I haven’t seen them; I’m waiting for the un-Lucased box set.)
They sure can dispense justice quickly in UK.
Here we would be three months off from getting a pre-sentebcecreport.
So it would be okay to refer to someone as a ‘wog bastard’ would it HughB? If that is unacceptable than so is ‘pommy bastard.’ If you’re re happy to suffer the abuse then it’s down to you. Me, I am not too fazed, but I know that Italians don’t like being referred to as wogs and Asians don’t like being referred to as slopes, so we should draw a line under lazy pejorative labels.