Odds and sods: week three

Betting market continue to favour Labor – but Monday’s Newspoll narrowing seems to have prompted movement to the Coalition, who have gained favouritism in three of their own marginals and one of Labor’s.

First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.

Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.

Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.

Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.

The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Odds and sods: week three”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  5. I’m going to loose $9000 a year says the guy in his shed.
    Somebody needs to remind these cats that most of them don’t need a self managed fund and having one can cost thousands of $$$$$ to set up and thousands of $$$$ to maintain per annum.
    Stop sooking ya bastards.

  7. In SA, 7.30 has not started.
    To read Bludger posts or to not read Bludger posts.

    Not read, so I get an non-influenced opinion.

  12. The block filter used to have a word/words filter. I could just pop in ‘7.30’ ‘sales’ etc and it would hide them all until I changed it back.

    Oh, for the good ole days.

  14. Ven

    They are probably all bussed out to marginal seats to make it look like there are plenty of volunteers.

    Its why Abbott is having trouble. He has not had to defend his seat by himself before. Note that’s not saying he will lose just that he could.
    Duplicate for quite a few other candidates plus the marginals I would be having the absolute minimum in a Safe seat. Including bunting signs and the rest.

    A good sign the LNP is on defence. 🙂

  16. Seriously bad attack by Leigh tonight telling Shorten to have a glass of water if he needs to…Next she’ll tell him he doesn’t need to look down the barrel.

  17. Shorten is hardened by the hundreds of town halls, and the background of being shouted at in smoke filled rooms. Leigh is lightweight.

  18. This interview has really exposed Sales agenda. She has hoist her flag to the Tory agenda quite clearly. I guess, she will crying over the twittersphere when called out on it, what a snow flake.

  19. It’s pretty naked by now, Leigh isn’t trying to hide it anymore. Bill’s got her even crankier than usual.

    Libs are the “Bar scene from Star Wars”!

    Woop! Woop!

  20. Hmmm
    Is that the same guy from QandA. I worry about the fkn money I don’t have you greedy arsewipe, not the money I am going to lose.

  30. I actually think Sales was relatively neutral in her questions. Her brief is to bring out answers and challenge. She did it and Bill responded well.

    A footrub is not helpful, despite what people would like to see.

  33. C’mon William. She was hopeless.

    Thank Christ she’s not getting anywhere near moderating a formal debate.

  37. Its not your money you bastards, it is tax money, money that real pensioners and unemployed need in rise to their gov’t support. May you get scurvy or Monte Zuma’s Revenge from your oysters.

    If these are the greedy fkn wangkers getting this free money from the gov’t then give me an ALP gov’t NOW.

    How does that carpenter get $36k a year. He must have a lot of dosh in his super. They can use the actual cash in the fund, it is not called a retirement fund for nothing, it is not a savings fund.

    Let them eat cake.

  38. Seriously, did some people here watch the same interview?

    I am as partisan Labor as anyone, but Sales was not as bad as those on here are saying.

  41. That was a very good interview by both Sales and Shorten.

    Sales asked the exact questions Shorten wanted. Shorten did very well.

    Cheers.

    BTW, anytime a retiree with a boat and $500,000 in super is dragged out to complain about the labor franking credit policy is not a bad thing for labor esp3cially when on numerous occasions it is mentioned that franking credits is all about getting a tax refund when no tax is actually paid.

    Cheers.

  42. Shorten did well. Looking forward to next week when Morrison is asked to talk about own policies and not Labor. Will be over in 2 minutes.

  48. I actually think Sales was relatively neutral in her questions. Her brief is to bring out answers and challenge. She did it and Bill responded well.

    I disagree Jen.

    Anyone can take government talking points and put them to the LOTO as if they’re a genuine enquiry.

    All you get then is shouting and conflict.

    Good television.

    Rotten democracy.

    No wonder ScoMo wanted her to preside. Saying “No” was the best decision Labor ever made.

    At least we now know why Labor nixed her as a moderator.

    Bloody hopeless interviewer. Always was. Always will be.

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