The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has followed Newspoll in recording the Labor lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 – and also in doing so from primary votes that you would think more likely to convert to 52-48. Labor are actually up two points from an unusually weak result last time, from 35% to 37%, while the Coalition are up a single point to 39%. The explanation for Labor’s two-party decline must lie in the two-point drop for the Greens, from 11% to 9%, and the attendant weakening in their flow of preferences. One Nation are up a point to 6%; no response option has been added for the United Australia Party, and there is nothing to suggest their ascent in the combined “others” tally, which is down a point to 9%.
If preference flows from 2016 are applied to these crudely rounded numbers, Labor starts with its 37% primary vote and gets 7.4% from the Greens (82% of their total), 3.0% from One Nation (50%) and 4.4% from others (49%), plus a 0.1% boost to correct for preference leakage between the Liberals and the Nationals. Add all that together and Labor comes out on 51.9%. Since this is, to the best of my knowledge, more-or-less the formula Essential uses, the explanation must lie in rounding. Dial Labor back to 36.6% and the Greens to 8.6%, and boost the Coalition to 39.4%, and you get primary votes that round to the published totals, but which produce a Labor two-party result of 51.4%, rounding to 51-49. There can’t have been much in it though.
The poll also features Essential’s occasional measure of leadership ratings, but all we are given at this stage is preferred prime minister. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-31, down from 44-31 when the question was last asked in early March. So here too the poll reflects Newspoll in finding leadership ratings headed the opposite way from the two-party headline.
We will have to wait until later today for the full report, but The Guardian report relates that 59% expect Labor to win compared with 41% for the Coalition (so presumably a forced response); that “voters have logged news stories about the Liberal party’s preference deal with the controversial businessman Clive Palmer’s United Australia party, and are noticing the debates about tax and healthcare”; that the top rated issues were health, national security and the economy; and that 19% reported taking no interest in the campaign, 29% a little, 33% some, and 20% a lot.
UPDATE: Full report here. The preferred prime minister is the only leadership ratings result – nothing on leaders’ approval and disapproval.
Further poll news:
• Roy Morgan, which either publishes or doesn’t publish its weekly face-to-face poll in irregular fashion, has released its results for a second successive week. Polling conducted over the weekend had Labor’s two-party preferred lead steady at 51-49, according to both respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures. Both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39.5% and Labor to 36%, while the Greens are steady on 9.5% and One Nation (which doesn’t do well in this series at the best of times) down two to 2.5%. Also not doing well in this series is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, steady on 2%. The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from sample size unknown, but probably around 700.
• The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll of Sturt, the Adelaide seat being vacated by Christopher Pyne, which had the Liberals leading 53-47, compared with their post-redistribution margin of 5.4%. The primary votes were 42% for the new Liberal candidate, James Stevens (44.7% post-redistribution); 35% for Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon (23.1%); a striking 9% for the United Australia Party (triple what Palmer United managed in Sturt in 2013); and 6% for the Greens. The poll also gives Scott Morrison a 45-31 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; finds 40% less likely to vote Liberal because of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement by Scott Morrison, compared with 25% for more likely; and finds only 22% more likely to vote Labor because of its franking credits and capital gains tax policies, compared with “almost half” for less likely. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 504.
• The Age yesterday related that Labor internal polling had it leading 55-45 in Dunkley, 54-46 in Lyons, and by an unspecified margin in Gilmore.
• The weirdest poll story of the campaign so far turns out to be the revelation that a supposed ReachTEL poll of the Curtin electorate, provided by independent candidate Louise Stewart to The West Australian and run as a front page story on Saturday, was fabricated. The Liberals reacted to ReachTEL’s denial that any such poll had been conducted by calling on Stewart to withdraw from her campaign, but Stewart says she believes she is the victim of a trick by her opponents. However, a follow-up report in The West Australian relates that Stewart told the paper she had “committed two polls from ReachTEL/Ucomms before election day”, and is now refusing the provide the email she received either to the paper or to ReachTEL. ReachTEL principal James Stewart said Louise Stewart had told him the email had been “deleted somehow”, but Louise Stewart says this is “not true”. Alex Turnbull, the son of the former Prime Minister, who has loomed large in independent candidates’ efforts to unseat sitting Liberals (though not, so far, in Stewart’s), said he believed he had been impersonated as part of the ruse. Stewart tells Andrew Burrell of The Australian that Turnbull’s investigations linked the distribution of the fake poll to a source “close to a senior conservative WA Liberal MP’s office in Perth”.
D says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 2:24 pm
Briefly
All is quite passive & rather subdued in this neck of woods.
I was hoping for fed up angry voters toting baseball bats for the Coalition. Quiet & polite!
I’m glad to read about it, D.
I did witness one G-loyal voter give a head-to-toe dressing down to a young Lib, a Porter-volunteer. The Lib made the cardinal error of trying to persuade an irate voter to change their mind. Very amusing.
Persuasion…a difficult art at the best of times…
Just a thought on preferencing UAP above Wilkie. I may be way off the mark here. Tasmanian state Labor got smashed over their anti pokies campaign at the Tasmanian state election. I have Tasmanian friends on my social media who shared over and over anti Labor messaging on pokies during that campaign and that messaging sadly worked. Wilkie is known to be strongly anti pokies, so this may be why Labor isn’t touching him, for fear that to do so may cost Tasmanian seats. I’m well aware that Labor preferences won’t be distributed, but just thinking this may have been part of the thought process.
Alpha
Not Knox Gardens!
We moved to Qld a year later & have been here ever since.
is anyone else getting a liberals ad asking them to chip in for the their campaign on the side bar of this PB page? I’ll leave that job to both the LNP supporters here.
Rossco
You are under no obligation to vote at all, you just have to attend a polling place and get your name crossed off. If you want to make a valid vote in the Senate put a 1 in a box, and however many more numbers you want. If you want to maximise the power of your vote number all the boxes.
Briefly
Thanks for the response. I happen to be in the Northern coastal suburbs of Perth and would love you to knock my door and I would give you more of the same – but politely 😉 (No-one has knocked to my knowledge though).
My belief would be people are frustrated that both parties overly play the “politics” of their roles, respond more to vested interests and globalism than to the broader constituency and neither can adequately formulate social policy that combines the needs of extremely divergent social positions (on LGBT issues etc).
Australians are seeing their cost of living increase. Their quality of life decrease and their self-determination eroded or eliminated. They are also seeing increased government control and bureaucracy in all areas of their lives. Neither party in their overall policy mix meaningfully address these issues. Hypocrisy & politicking are rampant.
The very existence of nation states is owed to their orientation of providing primarily for their constituents over outsiders. Is Labor’s increase to foreign aid and refugee intake consistent with this approach? In a land where birthrates are below sustainable replacement level, where are policies (like recently constituted in Hungary) to meaningfully increase natural births? In terms of positive policies that are there to what level are they countered by negative policies & consequences?
Take slashing negative gearing & capital gains on property vis a vis mass migration.
1st scenario: effect of policy in mass migration environment.
mass migration > increasing demand for inner city properties and subdivisions > price increases on these properties despite temporary price false from taxation changes.
Net result: decreased availability & affordability for purchase of family friendly properties for resident population, decrease in availability (hence increased cost) of family friendly rental properties in proximity to the city as they attract lower investor interest.
Family friendly? No. Worker friendly? No. Net effect: resident population forced increasingly to city fringe (where purchase price & rental price do genuinely decrease), longer commutes, increased infrastructure costs, smaller lot sizes.
What about KEEPING existing residential taxation policy in a reduced immigration scenario:
Price falls across all property sectors (less demand), allows maintenance of existing levels of family friendly blocks, and workers to buy properties closer than the urban fringe.
With a sustainable population, housing supply = housing demand as the stock already exists. This delivers price stability. Where there is price stability a low rate of capital gain or a high rate is immaterial as a 75% discount on capital gains is not different to a 25% discount (or no discount) when the expected price increase is zero (above inflation).
In a sustainable population scenario rather than investing tens of billions in infrastructure annually to keep up (but fall short), that saving can be passed through in reduced taxation OR increased funds for IMPROVING existing infrastructure rather than expanding it. (Think city subways vs new trainlines, roads & sewerage to outer suburbs that are no longer required). Think better resourced hospitals vs more volume of hospitals that again, per capita, fall short.
People want sensible policy that genuinely serves the population and environment’s needs without the politicking. They don’t get it from either side (or the Greens).
A Labor party that was strong on immigration would win elections outright as it would suck 10% from the Liberals and another 5% from the hard right (while giving 5% to the Greens).
A Labor party that took a more middle road on social issues would probably suit the broader worker constituency better, but would lose 5% of its votes to the Greens.
Leftism is lost to globalism as the propaganda supports mass migration as a human right, despite the fact historical mass migration is seen as a human “wrong” that caused the recipient populations to suffer (even to the extent of the wiping out of resident male lineages and entire cultures).
The establishment right is lost to globalism as the mass propaganda supports it and dodgy economics provides its cover.
The majority of voters on both sides vote with the propaganda rather than their interests & rights.
This cognitive dissonance produces the frustration you encounter even though most of those would not be able to articulate the source correctly. They just know their interests aren’t being looked after by either party properly, and so even if they vote for the major parties it is with underlying disquiet.
Of those that vote for the parties wholeheartedly this is on an ideological basis where the true consequence of the party policy they support is not the gains they think it will deliver.
Real world results are required to quell the disquiet, not ideology and pronouncements that sound good in theory but lose their effectiveness on the pavement. Like the example of the consequences of housing policy mix above.
ar….sadly my PB-centric critique of the Lib-Kin has not filtered out to the electorate.
I’d like to apologise to the bludgers for encouraging LGH….
“Labor 73 seats
Liberal 73 seats
Indepedent 2 seats (Steggall, Wilkie)
KAP 1 seat
Centre Alliance 1 seat
Greens 1 seat
Coalition minority? Snap election?”
Yeah. Nah.
Not with the primaries stuck where they are (and the range they have been in for the last 2.75 years).
Dr Bonham has estimated that labor would likely win a majority with 49.8 2PP – taking into account the pro labor distributions actually have labor starting the race at 72 seats.
Labor got 49.6% last time on a primary vote of less than 35%. The LNP scrapped back with 50.4% 2PP on the back of a 42.5% primary vote.
Labor is 2-3% better off now on primaries than at the last election and the LNP appears to be 3.5-6% worse off.
The Greens are pretty constant at 9-10%.
I can only see 3-5 labor seats theoretically at risk and I am pretty dam sure that they’ll hold most of these.
On the other hand 20+ coalition seats are in play and I can’t see them hold even half of these.
Put a fork in this government. It’s cooked.
RM –
While I’m sure it would never get that far, and I am not a lawyer and haven’t read the actual legislation, there are legislative prohibitions on instructing people to vote in any way that contradicts the intent of the legislation on what constitutes a valid vote – see Langer http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/FedLRev/1996/7.pdf – now that was a different time, applied to the House of Reps not the Senate, and the legislation is different legislation, but still … I think it would be best to stick to the official instructions, and not go around suggesting people vote otherwise.
Quote:
Bill Shorten has today confirmed that Labor’s 50% by 2030 electric vehicle target isn’t an election promise, and that it “doesn’t mean that [it] will happen.”
“The Greens are extremely disappointed that Bill Shorten and Labor have caved in to the scare campaign from the climate deniers on the hard right on their electric vehicle policy,” said Senator Janet Rice, Australian Greens transport spokesperson.
“Labor’s backtrack on their already weak 50% by 2030 electric vehicle target shows that their commitments on climate change are all open to reversal under the slightest bit of pressure.”
“Having an electric vehicle target with no plan to get there is like saying you’re going to the moon with no plan to build a spaceship.”
More: https://www.miragenews.com/bill-shorten-s-electric-vehicle-backtrack-shows-you-can-t-trust-labor-on-climate-say-greens/
Well said, Senator Rice!
AE
Yes. To win the LNP need a net gain of at least two seats.
I don’t see the pathway for them.
Especially with Victoria likely to be voting heavily against the right.
Edit: The media know this. So despite their attempt of a scare campaign on a hung parliament they still are talking about UAP preferences and asking Will the Senate pass that? (more bias. They didn’t ask Abott or Turnbull) they know its about how many seats go left for Labor or right for ability to block Climate policy etc
Around here us Greens are confronted with Lib-Libs, Lab-Libs, UAP Libs, Hinch-Libs, AJ-Libs, Sex-Libs and Indy-Libs.
Except they do have a plan. Government fleet procurement guidelines, tax incentives for corporate EV fleet purchases, something about charging networks off the top of my head.
A legislated target with nothing to back it up is the thing that is not a plan.
Conversely does that leave Green-Commies all on their lonesome?
greens resorting to their trumpian lies again.
“Sex-Libs”
How could you forget Barnaby, Broad, and the Sex-Nats! 😛
“Labor 73 seats
Liberal 73 seats
Indepedent 2 seats (Steggall, Wilkie)
KAP 1 seat
Centre Alliance 1 seat
Greens 1 seat”
Werner H has posed a scenario that just might arise! I think you could
safely count on Wilkie and Bandt to back Labor. After a negotiation period, I would expect that its more likely than not that Steggall and Sharkie would stick together, with the pro-environment compromises they would require more likely to come from Labor, and a confidence and supply agreement to follow with the justification that people had voted for change. Plus there’s the factor that neither would really want to be part of a “confidence” bloc that includes Katter….
Hmmmmm.
Here come the dividers. Just as it’s being pointed out the primary voting is clear.
The right really does want those blocking votes in the senate.
RogerMiller
“You are under no obligation to vote at all, you just have to attend a polling place and get your name crossed off. ”
My neighbour does that – every election. Apparently he gives the poll workers grief, because they insist on handing him the ballot forms and telling him it’s not their responsibility what he does with them.
Thing is, this neighbour spends hours on the couch watching political chat shows (especially on SkyNews). So perhaps it’s better he doesn’t vote.
Actually, he’s a bit of a dick.
Kakuru – He sounds like a total dick. I already know I never want to meet him.
‘“Having an electric vehicle target with no plan to get there is like saying you’re going to the moon with no plan to build a spaceship.”’
Labor does have a plan to get there. But it’s a target, not a commitment, and there’s a difference.
Anton – yeah, he didn’t bother voting in the SSM postal ballot either. Says he didn’t have enough information to make a decision. Or something like that.
So…on pre-poll voting??
Apparently a LOT more people doing it this time.
With the pre-poll voting becoming maybe the biggest “booth” in an electorate, how is that going to affect people like Anthony Green (hallowed be his name) on election night as far as projecting seat wins??
Is it a particular demographic that is predisposed to pre-poll? Will that skew the the picture on actual election night??
I would like to see Labor commit to all the National Highway network fully covered for charging availability.
To me that would mean more than just a target on electric cars. Do the former and the second becomes very easy to achieve.
A senior lawyer who has read the trial transcripts told me he thinks Pell will get off on appeal. When is the appeal being heard?
It’s a myth that you only need to get your name crossed off. As I understand, it’s your legal responsibility to cast a formal vote. Obviously they can’t check your vote due to the secret ballot, but more needs to be done to dispel this surprisingly widespread idea that you don’t need to lodge your ballot papers.
Guytaur – Shorten committed to a national network of charging stations
It’s okay Briefly. I think you forgot who I was 😉 Used to be a heavy poster (never under any other name), that had a few doozies with you 😉 Have not posted in about 2 years.
There are four fracture lines currently at play in politics although some of them not nearly as much as they should be:
nationalism vs globalism (left may find the term more suitable if we use newspeak to call it humanism)
marxism vs extreme capitalism
right to impose regimes & views on others vs maximising local sustainable group self-determination
putting humans above the environment vs putting humans within it
On every one of these we are at opposite poles except economic where I would be in the middle of the two. Interestingly my views are probably the most marginalised and demonised in terms of propaganda (free & paid). Considering the power structure of the world this is interesting.
If a view is demonised above all others by propaganda, and propaganda is devised by members of the elite (in various guises) is it likely it is the most hostile (in reality & ideology) to a global elite class increasing and retaining its power?
Nationalism, and with it maintenance of national cohesion & self-determination and restrictions on movements of capital and people is not conducive to globalists increasing their global reach & power.
What nations in history have been attacked and destroyed? Those that were open to global power or those that resisted? If your policies do not threaten global capital (and neither Labor’s or the Coalition’s do as evidenced by their ties and acceptance of global capital) then how much are they truly aligned against their interests and for the people?
Globalists make hay by having the hoi-polloi vote according to their produced propaganda from the institutes they control: universities, media, entertainment industries, financial institutes, think tanks…
The best approach a slaver can take is to have his slaves embrace their servitude. Workers in the USSR, Cuba and Venezuela did not receive their worker’s paradise, at the end though global capital did make huge gains from the mop-up (or will).
The only way to bring the global elite to heal is via national cohesion. National cohesion is not possible with mass migration especially where it is racially & culturally different. A sustainable quality of life is also not compatible with mass migration or full socialist policies (it requires balance). Sustained national cohesion is also not possible unless sustained quality of life improvements are provided or maintained sustainably at a high level. This means policy must deliver beyond rhetoric and in the real world. We’ll continue to tumble until we fall hard enough to have it out and/or tyranny is imposed. Sad people get invested in “what they want to be” over “what is”.
Diog
June 5th or 6th I think.
Jen
Thanks. That’s what counts. Boosting locals making some of the cars which I think Labor is doing won’t hurt either.
Once the charging is in place other than government fleets it will be up to consumers upgrade path.
imacca @ #373 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 3:30 pm
I pre-polled (first through the door on Monday morning!) because I’m going overseas. I will be IN THE AIR on election night. I probably won’t know the result until I get to Sydney the next morning. I hope they don’t arrest the man screaming and weeping beside the baggage carousel.
As I see it the cross-bench will very likely have Wilkie, Steggall, Phelps, Sharkie and Oakeshott at the least and then there might be Katter and Bandt as well. There are other seats where Independents might win such as Mallee, Parkes, Farrer and Curtin (if the seat polling is accurate).
Related question; why do counts from pre-poll booths tend to be added late/last on the night? Presumably they should be some of the earliest results available?
a r @ #384 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 2:00 pm
Quite possibly because some seats may be determined before polling day arrives if that happened.
What will the judgers and condemners here call him then?
An “ex-pedophile”? An “acquitted pedophile”?
A contested conviction based on a single victim/witness’ testimony is inherently unsound.
You can’t leave open the significant chance that someone might just make something up, find a sympathetic jury and put someone else away for life based on that testimony. Denunciation isn’t enough, no matter how impassioned.
In Pell’s case there was even evidence (admittedly hearsay, but from a witness you would expect to be antipathetic to Pell – one of the victims’ parents) that one of the boys Pell was supposed to have sexually molested specifically denied to his parent that the crime happened. Furthermore, the case had been before both a magistrate and an earlier jury without an adverse finding. Lastly, the evidence was many years old.
I am not (repeat: not) saying this happened in the Pell case. But if you’re going to have “proof beyond reasonable doubt” as your standard then you need independent corroboration, at a minimum.
Whether Pell is a bad person or not is immaterial. Personally I can’t stand the man, or what he stands for politically, but he deserves scrupulous fairness in the judicial process, as do others who may find themselves in his situation in completely unrelated criminal matters. This would apply even if the accused was Ivan Milat, or Jack The Ripper.
Pre-polls get counted only when polls have closed…….I’m sure that is correct.
a r @ #384 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 2:00 pm
Because there are a lot more of them than a “normal” booth. Just like a small regional booth gets counted faster than a large city booth.
The bigger booths generally take longer to count and so get added to the totals towards the end. If the pre-polls are the biggest ‘booths’, we should expect them last.
Al Jazeera, the gift that keeps on giving. ABC24
“To win the LNP need a net gain of at least two seats.
I don’t see the pathway for them.”
I agree – their best hope in scraping in for minority government. More likely labor forms an outright majority of 10-15+ seats depending on whether the swing is mostly confined to labor seats. The electoral system where the national party gets so many safe seats for so few national votes sucks. hopefully the fracturing of the right and uselessness of most nats members undoes some of this.
“Guytaur – Shorten committed to a national network of charging stations”
Pretty easy to commit to doing something that already exists…
https://www.plugshare.com
Micheala Cash is revving them up in Mackellar..
What a great turnout at the Mackellar small business forum hosted by @JasonFalinskiMP. The Mackellar electorate has some amazing small businesses and it was great to meet some of them today and talk about the Morrison Government’s support for them. #Backingsmallbusiness
Bushfire Bill @ #382 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 4:04 pm
Still a pedophile. Because the only reason that he has a “conviction based on a single victim/witness” is that the process dragged on so long that only a single victim/witness was left alive to participate in the trial.
The law quite explicitly says otherwise.
Oh, good grief. Making a point with a very sparse graphic is entirely irrelevant. The issue is that to get people to buy EVs, they need to have confidence that they will be able to recharge wherever they want to go, and that will take more than just decorating a few key routes on a zoomed out map of Australia.
But, whatever, apparently Labor have “no plan” and Senator Rice is making some visionary statement by tut-tutting about them having “no plan”, even though they do have a plan, but it’s not really a plan because some anonymous internet guy likes the look of a brightly coloured graphic.
The pathway would be – holding all their current seats and gaining any of the following
– Bass
– Lindsay
– Mayo
– Wentworth
– Cowan
– Solomon
– Herbert
I wouldn’t put any of them outside of the realms of possibility (and note in many of these seats both leaders have visited, which indicates they aren’t certain Labor will hold them either). Winning more than 2 would allow them to offset against losses elsewhere. It doesn’t look likely right now but who knows?
The issue for Antony Green is with high pre-polls, there’s no way of projecting a pattern or estimating preference flows to call a seat one way or another. We’ll probably need more of the actual vote to be in before those calls can be made.
Labor back into $1.30 from $1.40. Libs out to $4.10 from $3.70(!). Smart money rolling in now.
Statement (partial) from Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners Council via their FB page
Just like old times for them, riding horses through their camp, no doubt with even more mercenary intent in historical times and without the benefit of cameras to record
STATEMENT
W&J condemn politically motivated assault in Clermont
Political leaders and Adani must disown this election time abuse
The full force of the law needed against this assault
CLERMONT: The Wangan and Jagalingou Family Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the politically motivated attack on our Karmoo Dreaming celebration in Clermont yesterday. We are deeply concerned for the welfare of the woman who was seriously injured while attending a gathering on our country.
The Council calls on all political leaders to join us in condemning this egregious act of assault on a peaceful assembly, and those who were cheering them on. The Council calls for the full force of the law to be brought to bear on the man arrested for this act, and for police to investigate if he acted in concert with others.
W&J Council spokesperson Adrian Burragubba said: “This assault was the consequence of the fear and loathing being stirred up by right wing politicians who came to Clermont on the weekend. This act should be condemned by them without reservation. Australians should be united against this kind of politically motivated violence.
“Adani must also distance themselves from this. They cannot hide behind PR on this matter. They give financial support to the Liberal and National Parties and One Nation through political donations. They have thanked them and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, and the people who came to Clermont to protest against the Bob Brown convoy, for their support.
—–
“People charging horses through our ‘camp’ is familiar from this region’s colonial history, which our people suffered immeasurable harm from. It reminds us of the fear and intimidation that is still used to try to silence us.
“This incident, and the people who were applauding the horse rider at the gate to the showgrounds as he left, were incited and inflamed by a bunch of overbearing politicians and high-viz wearing blow-ins.
“We are very unhappy about people unsettling our peaceful time. This attack was clearly driven by right wing extremism. What do the right wing politicians like Canavan, Hanson, Palmer and Katter, who made their presence known in Clermont on Saturday, have to say for themselves?
I reckon Andrew Hastie will be defeated in Canning, after this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/30/andrew-hastie-and-fellow-wa-liberal-had-brief-meeting-with-far-right-extremist-neil-erikson