The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has followed Newspoll in recording the Labor lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 – and also in doing so from primary votes that you would think more likely to convert to 52-48. Labor are actually up two points from an unusually weak result last time, from 35% to 37%, while the Coalition are up a single point to 39%. The explanation for Labor’s two-party decline must lie in the two-point drop for the Greens, from 11% to 9%, and the attendant weakening in their flow of preferences. One Nation are up a point to 6%; no response option has been added for the United Australia Party, and there is nothing to suggest their ascent in the combined “others” tally, which is down a point to 9%.
If preference flows from 2016 are applied to these crudely rounded numbers, Labor starts with its 37% primary vote and gets 7.4% from the Greens (82% of their total), 3.0% from One Nation (50%) and 4.4% from others (49%), plus a 0.1% boost to correct for preference leakage between the Liberals and the Nationals. Add all that together and Labor comes out on 51.9%. Since this is, to the best of my knowledge, more-or-less the formula Essential uses, the explanation must lie in rounding. Dial Labor back to 36.6% and the Greens to 8.6%, and boost the Coalition to 39.4%, and you get primary votes that round to the published totals, but which produce a Labor two-party result of 51.4%, rounding to 51-49. There can’t have been much in it though.
The poll also features Essential’s occasional measure of leadership ratings, but all we are given at this stage is preferred prime minister. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-31, down from 44-31 when the question was last asked in early March. So here too the poll reflects Newspoll in finding leadership ratings headed the opposite way from the two-party headline.
We will have to wait until later today for the full report, but The Guardian report relates that 59% expect Labor to win compared with 41% for the Coalition (so presumably a forced response); that “voters have logged news stories about the Liberal party’s preference deal with the controversial businessman Clive Palmer’s United Australia party, and are noticing the debates about tax and healthcare”; that the top rated issues were health, national security and the economy; and that 19% reported taking no interest in the campaign, 29% a little, 33% some, and 20% a lot.
UPDATE: Full report here. The preferred prime minister is the only leadership ratings result – nothing on leaders’ approval and disapproval.
Further poll news:
• Roy Morgan, which either publishes or doesn’t publish its weekly face-to-face poll in irregular fashion, has released its results for a second successive week. Polling conducted over the weekend had Labor’s two-party preferred lead steady at 51-49, according to both respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures. Both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39.5% and Labor to 36%, while the Greens are steady on 9.5% and One Nation (which doesn’t do well in this series at the best of times) down two to 2.5%. Also not doing well in this series is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, steady on 2%. The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from sample size unknown, but probably around 700.
• The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll of Sturt, the Adelaide seat being vacated by Christopher Pyne, which had the Liberals leading 53-47, compared with their post-redistribution margin of 5.4%. The primary votes were 42% for the new Liberal candidate, James Stevens (44.7% post-redistribution); 35% for Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon (23.1%); a striking 9% for the United Australia Party (triple what Palmer United managed in Sturt in 2013); and 6% for the Greens. The poll also gives Scott Morrison a 45-31 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; finds 40% less likely to vote Liberal because of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement by Scott Morrison, compared with 25% for more likely; and finds only 22% more likely to vote Labor because of its franking credits and capital gains tax policies, compared with “almost half” for less likely. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 504.
• The Age yesterday related that Labor internal polling had it leading 55-45 in Dunkley, 54-46 in Lyons, and by an unspecified margin in Gilmore.
• The weirdest poll story of the campaign so far turns out to be the revelation that a supposed ReachTEL poll of the Curtin electorate, provided by independent candidate Louise Stewart to The West Australian and run as a front page story on Saturday, was fabricated. The Liberals reacted to ReachTEL’s denial that any such poll had been conducted by calling on Stewart to withdraw from her campaign, but Stewart says she believes she is the victim of a trick by her opponents. However, a follow-up report in The West Australian relates that Stewart told the paper she had “committed two polls from ReachTEL/Ucomms before election day”, and is now refusing the provide the email she received either to the paper or to ReachTEL. ReachTEL principal James Stewart said Louise Stewart had told him the email had been “deleted somehow”, but Louise Stewart says this is “not true”. Alex Turnbull, the son of the former Prime Minister, who has loomed large in independent candidates’ efforts to unseat sitting Liberals (though not, so far, in Stewart’s), said he believed he had been impersonated as part of the ruse. Stewart tells Andrew Burrell of The Australian that Turnbull’s investigations linked the distribution of the fake poll to a source “close to a senior conservative WA Liberal MP’s office in Perth”.
GG
Growler, I think you’re barking up the wrong tree trying to draw parallels between the Bob Brown & PHON.
What about the Franklin?
“Last week still bagging Morrison and groaning about who to vote for, today bagging Shorten and leaving Morrison alone.”
Its probably a “stages of grief” thing fess.
A few of my Tory fb associates are bringing up the old allegations against Shorten. Lucky for them he isn’t a liberal MP, they’d be threatened with a defo writ.
mikehilliard @ #606 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:16 pm
Labor achievement. Brown was an activist. No Greens party in 1984. Something happened in that situation. We’d be better off without the Greens.
Now they have negative gearing scare campaign ads.
When is labor going to show the public all the monies wasted for little return.
NBN
Water buy backs
Great barrier reef
to name a few
“You haven’t proven I said that people should crap onto the terminals. There are other things that humans pass out of their systems than crap, it may be informative for you to know.”
Oh! So you meant they should ejaculate into the cars instead? Well that’s quite alright then! I was wrong, you were being really mature.
“Honestly, you need to grow a sense of humour. Being a po-faced Green is leading you up the garden path with a dry gully at the end of it.”
Sorry, I don’t think people throwing things at each other, urinating, defecating, ejaculating, or whatever else into a car is funny. Grow up.
The Senate looking interesting. The Labor decision to preference Hinch looks the best chance to only elect 2 from the right in Vic. After first 4 – 2 Lab 2 LNP – elected surplus could be Greens 8, Labor 5, Hinch 5 LNP 4, UAP 3 Phon 2 Ajp 2 for example. If Labor had preferenced Greens the Labor surplus just gets soaked up by Greens. Greens should still keep well ahead and get in. If Hinch is ahead of Labor 3 the Labor preferences should keep Hinch above the right wing whose preferences will spray a lot.
GG
Yes I know there was no Greens party in ’84. But you’d have to admit that Brown’s activism propelled Hawke into banning the dam.
Rex not that it’s all that unusual for a politician but Shorten comes across as promising anything he feels will win him votes. The test will be on what he delivers once he becomes PM. Although this will lose put me offside here I can’t agree with the way he is dividing people and prosecuting a type of class war.
Time will tell How it all works out.
Question what should have been put to Pauline
She made so many bad judgement calls, and still has not learn her lesson after all these bad calls, how can Australians trust Pauline Hanson in not making another bad call in the next few weeks ?
As one flame-related contributor to another, Firefox, can I suggest you tone it down a little, or perhaps show a little humour occasionally?
Constant anger and angst is a large turn-off.
mikehilliard @ #613 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:23 pm
I don’t have to admit that at all because it’s not true. Sure, Brown was a voice. But, in the end, labor made a political decision based on all the evidence not just the ra raahing.
davidwh says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 7:25 pm
Rex not that it’s all that unusual for a politician but Shorten comes across as promising anything he feels will win him votes.
——————-
Franking , tax on high earners , negative gearing , climate/environment policy , medivac are supposed to have lost him the election
compare Shorten to Morrison
Morrison gives promises only to the media(murdoch) , big end of town , attack those who are on welfare and are not high earners
that is what you call looking to win votes
Bushfire Bill @ #616 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
Irish eyes are not smiling.
Watched the ABC news at 7 which had a grab of the Scum Mo/ Hastie interview, but no mention of the Nazi links with Ericson.
So:
1. The Liberals are in coalition with the Nationals.
2. The Coalition refuses to publicly release or discuss the content of the coalition agreement.
3. The leader of part of the Coalition is happy to state it ‘aligns’ with One Nation on a range of policies.
4. One part of the Coalition has done a preference deal with One Nation.
On that basis I reckon its fair game to just flat out say: a re-elected Scott Morrison Government will implement One Nation policies.
About time we took the gloves off and had a proper scare campaign.
GG you are demonstrating my point……thanks. Move on….what is your prediction for the election?
Vic:
I was pleased Shorten raised the NBN last night as another failure of this govt. He specifically mentioned our world ranking slipping. I’d like to see Labor go harder on the govt about that, as well as the wasted monies via ‘grants’ to the GBRF and that Kangaroo Isl outfit, plus #watergate.
There’s so much dodgy material this mob have created for Labor to work with.
mikehilliard @ #607 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:23 pm
Bob Hawke had to be led to it by the nose.
Thank goodness the Greens have been there to drag Labor back from the right and it’s bastardry.
The Franklin Dam was just an early example of the ALP being late to the party on a progressive policy, and seeking to capitalise politically. As usual, Greens do the hard progressive yards and Labor arrives to claim it as a win.
davidwh:
What Scott said. And add to that funneling large portions of taxpayer funds at your mates to line their pockets.
Confessions @ #617 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
I agree Labor should go harder.
Unfortunately though they don’t seem at all interested in fixing fraudband.
Even in Qld if all the cards fell right the Labor 3 candidate might stand a chance of taking seat 6 by staying up with/ahead of the LNP 3 and highest RWNJ and getting a share of preference flows from each of the eliminated candidates to sneak in. Based on 2016 I would expect if LNP 3 is eliminated then Labor would get a good share of preferences in a split with Greens 1, UAP and PHON for example – the more moderate Libs in Brisbane and elsewhere. And flow between RW parties could be fairly poor. Result could be Labor 3 Greens 1 LNP 2. Spectacular if it happens and great result for the Senate voting system.
“class war”
Why’s it only class war when the better off are the losers. Or was it class war when penalty rates were cut as well.
DR @ #623 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:32 pm
There were no Federal greens then
LOL
I feel like Shorten is doing something rare, which is not promise goodies for everyone, unlike Tony Abbott did back in the day, or even Kevin Rudd, being all things too all people, but of course he had the backing of the Murdoch press, not Shorten though, not only does he not promise lollies for everyone, but he has to fight a toxic media every single day.
I respect that he is willing to put everything out their, even if not all of it will please some groups, and this despite all the toxic crap thrown at him every single day.
DR @ #625 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:32 pm
Absolute crap. The Greens did not exist in 1984.
davidwh
‘Rex not that it’s all that unusual for a politician but Shorten comes across as promising anything he feels will win him votes’
Which doesn’t explain his policies on negative gearing and franking credits.
Fess
I have yet to see any negative ads in this space
Just an addendum on my single mother..
..despite living under Howard and Abbott and neo-liberalism, she conquered substance addiction, put a roof over her child’s head, made sure he got a computer and internet (back when these cost multiple weeks average income and 2% of the population had one at home, before a thing such as “Internal Explorer” or “Windows” existed). Managed to finish her education, work her way up through her chosen profession, get off welfare for good, travel the world, and earns above average income today.
All through the unfair, horrible, neoliberal world of today, with its (limited) levels of support for the needy.
My single mother friend under Abbott? Purchased her first home working part-time in hospitality with additional government subsidised welfare income, without parental support, smart with money and where she spent it..
If she can raise two kids and buy a home, on her own, with an after tax & transfers income of <$50k a year why can't a two parent family with a single child on two minimum wages ($80k after welfare/tax transfers)?
Is it income or expenditure?
Do you think families should earn more than $80k per year before delivering any net income tax to the government? Because that is where we are today.
Do you think the minimum wage should be over $40k per annum because that is effectively where we are today. What will you do when the price offered online is significantly cheaper than the store price because the labour load inherent in the sale is less?
Do you know how much cheaper businesses that offer trade service quotes online can be and remain profitable compared to the average business paying wages for onsite quotes? What happens if sales wages rise? How many more customers opt for the cheaper online quote (or Amazon sale) when it is 15% cheaper vs when it is 10% cheaper? What does less in person sales mean for sales employment rates? What does it mean for business profitability? What happens when a business fails?
These trade-offs are real, they are not theoretical, they are not imaginary.
People react to the first order consequence (high salaries, more money to spend yay!) and ignore the secondary and tertiary consequences (yes some of which are positive as well as negative).
davidwh @ #608 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:25 pm
Well, I’ve been confident that Shorten Labor will win in a canter.
However, maybe that confidence should be reined in a bit given your reservations and the current state of the polls.
zoomster says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 7:35 pm
davidwh
‘Rex not that it’s all that unusual for a politician but Shorten comes across as promising anything he feels will win him votes’
Which doesn’t explain his policies on negative gearing and franking credits.
______________________________________
That’s true. I didn’t think he’d have the balls to run with those policies. I don’t think Shorten’s mates in the IPA and big business expected them either.
I don’t doubt for a moment that Shorten will win, but…
If he doesn’t, it will be disastrous for Australian politics. No party intent on winning government in the future will dare to be be at all reformist. The ‘what he said but with free steak knives’ will be as bold as it gets.
Folks I’m not saying Labor is worse than the Coalition, far from it as the current government has been a very poor government. I was simply giving an honest response to the question Rex asked.
Vic:
I don’t see any Labor ads ever, positive or negative!
Fess
I’ve seen more negative ads from the coalition then anything from Labor
Labor will go hard on issues their research has told them will change votes and will avoid issues that might lose votes.
Many if us here (myself included) are probably not very good at working those issues out because we have established views and no access to the research.
I won’t be criticising Labors decisions unti I know the election result.
zoomster:
It’ll be disastrous because it will mean 3 more years of this feckless, incompetent govt.l
“As one flame-related contributor to another, Firefox, can I suggest you tone it down a little, or perhaps show a little humour occasionally?
Constant anger and angst is a large turn-off.”
I’m not flaming or trolling anyone. I don’t think violence between protesters is an amusing topic. Neither is putting bodily fluids/waste into someone’s car.
Thankfully, nobody seems to have been stupid enough to act out C@t’s primary school level fantasy. The two sides were actually pretty reasonable if you go by what the police had to say.
GG / VP
“Absolute crap. The Greens did not exist in 1984.”
“There were no Federal greens then”
Right, so there was no environmental movement in Australia until the Greens were officially registered in 92?
Desperate deflection.
Just reading more of BB’s narrow and uninformed views about child sexual assault posted this arvo.
Of one of Pell’s alleged victims, BB says the boy specifically denied it to his parents. If BB had any experience or informed knowledge of (historical) CSA, or had he paid attention to the RC, he would know that it is absolutely the norm for abused children to keep the matter 100% private to themselves. They will do anything rather than let the secret out, on the mild end by lying, on the severe end by self harm, including the most powerful form of self harm.
A-R has already attempted to correct BB wth regard to his incorrect views about how the justice system actually works, with regard to evidence, especially limited evidence.
When I first came to PB about 10 years ago, BB used often provide very interesting and reliable commentary about many matters. His entre into the subject of sexual assault of children and adults in which he has argued about a number of high profile cases in recent years, proselytising his narrow angry white male views, stands in marked contrast.
Having said this I have no idea as to whether Pell’s appeal will succeed, or whether he will be in the future charged in regard to other allegations still current.
Rex the current headline polling isn’t a problem for Labor. Forget the 2PP and focus on the primary numbers. The Coalition will lose comfortably at 38% primary and they won’t make up 4 or 5 percent in the next three weeks.
Vic:
I guess I’m lucky that I don’t see any election advertising at all. Whether it be Liberal, Labor or others. That said I still haven’t seen any Liberal or National corflutes which IS unprecedented. Labor corflutes everywhere, even Australian Christians and Clive has corflutes here.
Usually you would see more Liberal corflutes in people’s yards than Labor, so I wonder if the WA Liberals have made a cost-related decision to dial back the distribution of corflutes to safe seats, and only enable them to be put up in key strategic areas on heavy transport routes, not people’s front yards.
With early voting under way it’s extraordinary that Labor hasn’t got all that ad material hitting lounge rooms right now.
What are they waiting for ??
Goll says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 6:40 pm
If only the Government had policies.
davidwh @ #643 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:44 pm
Sure, but the trend is toward the L/NP at the moment, so one wonders what the situation will be in 3 weeks…. ?
Fess
I haven’t seen many corflutes either. I would say that putting them in areas of high traffic is the most logical thing to do
DR @ #647 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:43 pm
You really are a dunderhead.
The point is that the environmental movement achieved results when they agitated. As soon as they became a Political party , everything has stopped. Ten years of inaction on Climate Change can be brought down to party politicisation of Environment issues.
If you don’t see this, then it will continue unabated.
7.30 doing a bit of a snow job on Frydenberg in Kooyong, giving him about twice the airtime of all his opponents combined.
Psyclaw @ #648 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 7:43 pm
You really are a boring contributor.