Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national Newspoll result is 5%. Two-party preferred status: it’s complicated.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.

Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.

Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.

Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:

With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.

Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.

The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.

However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.

As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.

The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.

Newspoll method Past election: A Past election: B
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
Primary 38 37 38 37 38 37
Greens 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4
UAP 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
One Nation 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Others 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4
TOTAL 48.6 51.4 47.9 52.1 47.7 52.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 30
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  2. GWN went to the 6pm news here, but did eastern staters get some kind of insight into who was in the audience?

    Peter BrentVerified account @mumbletwits
    10m10 minutes ago

    “Undecided voters”

  3. I don’t think SM will be asking for anymore leader debates.

    imacca says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    My only criticism of Bill is that he looks like he is enjoying himself too much.

  4. Morrison was smirky and talky-over (all part of the superiority complex) and basically saying vote for us and things will just go on the way they have been going for the last six years. Seriously.

    Shorten was cool, confident and relaxed, and polite. He had some good asides, but the message was that more of the same is exactly what you don’t want, and then went into some specifics, notably wages.

    Shorten won on style and substance.


  9. Peter BrentVerified account @mumbletwits
    10m10 minutes ago

    “Undecided voters”

    Chloe is undecided?
    Mathias Cormann is undecided?

    The only two I picked.

  12. Billy Boy was alert tonight and clearly won on points. He wiped the smirk off Motor Mouth’s face and re-energised his own confidence and that of ‘the base’.

  13. Morrison was more articule. However, I thought Shorten nailed the closing comments. Then Channel 7 showed their time mismanagement* and had to ask another question. I think Shorten finished strongly on that too.

    * Maybe they’re not used to an hour being 60 minutes, what with the 15 minutes of commercials they would normally have run.

  14. Returning briefly to earlier matters, Isaac Isaacs and Bill McKell were the other two former politicians who served as GG (although II had had a long period on the High Court in the interim).

    Actually ex-pols have been amongst our better GGs. They at least understand the role and conventions. But it’s true that such an appointment would probably be harder now.

  16. In regard the comment that falling house prices (in some markets only), the critical test is that the SMSF is paying an Allocated Pension – so it is the (net because Superannuation Funds can borrow these days) rent which is the critical figure

    There was also once a diversification requirement for SMSF’s and that along with being unable to borrow meant property was not an asset SMSF’s invested in

    I do not know if there are still diversification requirements – but if there are not there should be.

    As I have put on this site previously, I would not entertain a SMSF preferring instead reputable Fund Managers on the International stage – because of diversification from Cash to Alternatives depending on your risk appetite (including property)

    There is no guarantee that Fund Managers will perform – Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

    And the same with property – past performance is no guarantee of future performance

    Simply, in life there are no guarantees

    But, over the course, time, compounding and diversification do give returns notwithstanding the Global Share Market crashes we head seen in 1974, 1987 and 2008

    Eleven years on from 2008 the impact remains – returns paddling hard to stay above water (being inflation plus 2%)

    So property has out performed over that period

    But every dog has his day

    Hence diversification

    Then we get to Pooled Funds and Franking Credits

    In case of need there is also the liquidation where property is the asset – because such needs do occur

    In summary, if in property there are exactly the same risks that apply to every other risk category – except Cash but look at the returns

    And the greater the return the more the risk

  18. That Cormann vid is on very high rotation on my twitter thread.

    Could be the most significant thing to come out of the deabte.

  19. sonar:

    I have no idea why the audience was there. Apart from the two poor sods plucked from the audience, they had no engagement or involvement in the ‘debate’ that I could determine.

  20. Morrison’s technique was reflecting the difficulty of his position. He came out gagging for a fight .

    I actually think Morrison did well in the first 1/3… but then Shorten hit his strides and was CLEARLY the better and more relaxed performer at the end.

    … and two take always. 1. Mark Riley’s sleazy final FINAL question was disgusting 2. Shorten’s final response to the “costs of change” and turning it against Morrison as the “costs of inaction” was excellent.

  21. rhwombat says Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:12 pm

    Compact Cow Head has just told Corman that he’s been fingered for the Curtin fake poll stunt.

    Oh how I would love that to be true.

  24. There are comparisons being drawn to Joyce and his leering at his now partner.

    But, I’m saying that Cormann was being far more intimidatory to Chloe Shorten.

  26. What do the people need to know about the other leader, asked to both of them, Morrison first. Shorten had an excellent final word

  28. Final question was “Anything your opponent hasn’t told us they should?”
    Morrison went on about cost.
    Shorten on the cost of no action.

  31. Retweeted

    Paul Bongiorno
    @PaulBongiorno
    ·
    8m
    After watching the leaders’ debate I would advise
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    not to do any more.

  32. GG:

    It’s just skin crawl worthy when you see older men these days aping women. Personally I find the Barnaby photo just as creepy as the Cormann video.

  33. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:13 pm
    That Cormann vid is on very high rotation on my twitter thread.

    Could be the most significant thing to come out of the deabte.

    If he’s married his wife might be asking him a question or two.


  35. Henry says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:19 pm

    Hugh they asked again, what do you like about the other bloke.
    Stupid question, shows the vacuity of the msm.

    Yes; but Shortan had the “I will work with you if you’re sane” answer ready.


  36. nath says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:18 pm

    Cormann is probably just staring in stupefaction about how far out of his division Bill is punching.

    It does not matter what Cormann was thinking; you do not behave like that.

  37. The Horninator is looking across Chloe in the same direction as the old bloke behind him.

    They may be perving at someone else.

  40. Puffytmd says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:18 pm
    BB ill sis chewing up scomo and spitting him out.

    Puffy

    I think you must have been watching it some time after most others who have been reporting on it. But thanks to you and everyone else for your blow by blow descriptions of the encounter. Very informative and entertaining.

  42. frednk
    says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    nath says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:18 pm
    Cormann is probably just staring in stupefaction about how far out of his division Bill is punching.

    It does not matter what Cormann was thinking; you do not behave like that.
    ______________________________________
    Look it seemed odd. Was he staring past her, at something else? I don’t know. It’s not as clear cut as Barnaby’s weak moment from the footage I’ve seen. Perhaps in 4k it might be more apparent.

  44. 7 studio audience has given the first #AUSVote19 debate to Bill Shorten

    Of the 48 people in the audience 25 thought Mr Shorten did the better job

    12 thought Scott Morrison won

    11 were undecided

    @6PR @2GB873 @3AW693 @NewsTalk4BC @1395FIVEaa

  45. Henry @ #1286 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 8:25 pm

    Maybe I didn’t have my glasses on but in terminators defense he may have been looking beyond Chloe.

    Look at Chloe’s response. She was clearly uncomfortable.b people know instinctively when this sort of crap happens.

    Cormann was being a sleaze. Don’t let him off the hook. make him acountable.

  48. antonbruckner11
    says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 8:27 pm
    Henry @ #1288 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 8:25 pm
    Maybe I didn’t have my glasses on but in terminators defense he may have been looking beyond Chloe.
    Yes, I thought he was looking at the woman besides Chloe. Seriously, a man of his years should be able to perve more discretely than that.
    _______________________
    ikr, at his age he should have got it down to a fine art. Don’t dwell, just gently sweep your eyes across the landscape.

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