The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.
Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.
Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.
Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:
With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.
In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.
Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.
The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.
However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.
As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.
The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.
| Newspoll method | Past election: A | Past election: B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
| Primary | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 |
| Greens | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| UAP | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| One Nation | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL | 48.6 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
BINGO.
And there it is.
Peter Brent tweets.
No he’s not watching a different debate.
He’s just not wearing the PB goggles.
Doesn’t matter what happens in the ‘debate’ all about how its reported and interpreted
Basil will be talking footy at halftime.
Bill has been rehearsing the boats argument
Sco wins the toss. goes first
Economy.
highest funding of schools hosps
highest medicare bulk billing jobs growth
plan strong econ, lower taxes,
usual shit.
gets youth suicide in,
econ econ bad labor cant manage money
econ econ jobs econ
Channel Seven shouldn’t hold debates.
The audience is finally getting involved.
Franking question from the floor
‘Howard lost almost every debate he participated in and he still won four elections.’
Phew. That was close then.
We’re home and hosed.
This freakin’ sad….
Rudd beat Abbott in the debate in 2013, Abbott won the election.
Shorten beat Turnball in the debate in 2016, Turnball won the election, albeit by 1 seat.
Howard usually got outdebated by Keating and then Beazley, yet he won 4 straight elections.
“Channel Seven shouldn’t hold debates.”
They aren’t
This countdown music is being ignored
Scotty going into bat for the SMSF sector – go for it!
B.S. Fairman @ #773 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 5:37 pm
Agreed. And based on this debacle, neither should The West.
When we look back at this election we will know that Bill’s rumpled suit in the 7Mate town hall was a sign of things to come. It’s over. 😉
Paid tax all their lives FFS
Bill
says nice things to audience and WAians
world best health,
edu system
dental scheme for pens
we can pay for it
prioritise childcare schools
he is putting so much out there I cannot type fast enough
people going backwards, lost apprentices, econ not working,
time for a change
going to put exciting plans of table tonight
climate change
energy
fair go everyone benefits
Now Shorten cant stop smirking.
Bill should say, ‘every time Mr Morrison says Medicare I’m reminded that it was his party which opposed Labor’s introduction of Medicare’….but he won’t of course….
Baby Boomer entitlement is all Scotty has
I don’t know that the term unseemly farce is strong enough term for this “debate”.
Scotty doing he said, she said.
His aggression is incredibly off putting.
Scotty getting Shouty
Give it a rest Itep. (lol)
sprocket_ @ #1162 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 7:39 pm
Most SMSF’s are underpinned by Property. People’s nest eggs are being destroyed by crashing prices of real estate.
Shorten struggling on this question.
Nath
Your pillow is lonely
And you should pay it some respect and wash it every so often
Oh goody goody. Laura Tingle will give her verdict on the ‘debate’.
Self managed super what the fuck is this very hard to explain
grimace @ #1170 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 7:40 pm
I just thought it was a WA thing.
Onya Bill. Did well with prosecuting the case for abolishing franking credits.
Shorten has warmed up well on this, has gone on the front foot with franking credits very well.
Clive Palmer? Who says Scotty?
Riley – Trust.
Morri asked about change of PMs in Libs. why should we trust you.
replies. both parties changed rules
then lib talking points who do you trust to….. fill in blanks.
budget back to surplus
Shorten trust
riley says he was faceless man in PMJG shit. why trust you.
Bill says everyone to blame, trust has to be rebuilt, set up fed icac,
vote morrison get palmer
Mundo
I wouldn’t ever want to have you beside me in the trenches. Every time there was the sound of gunshot you’d be running around shouting we’re all going to die. Try and grow a spine for Christ sake.
I keep saying that debates are boring, badly structured wastes of time in Australian politics and they should instead do leader rap battles.
Scotty off the reservation on Clive!
Shorten in full meltdown. It’s embarrassing.
“Rubbish!”
Good reply.
Mattihas the perve.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1122797771197599744
Christ WTF was that rant by Scotty?
This is becoming unhinged.
Finish it with a fist fight boys.
Shorten got in smirk and Clive’s Digital wallpaper in one thread
Scomo is insane. Smacked around the chops now with Clive Palmer.
See – mundo, don’t want to hear anything short of Shorten is losing.
But Morrison is coming out swinging and he’s connecting with some of them.
Shorten is much better when he’s looser. But that audience will not award him the win.
The audience have clapped four times for Bill and zero times for Scott
Audience frequently clapping Bill, laughing at Morrison
Actually, Bill is doing brilliantly.
You can’t compare the Greens with Clive. Scotty is on thin ice with that analogy.
So the Libs are chasing Palmer in court, but giving him their preferences?