YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 22
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  1. sprocket_ @ #75 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 5:54 am

    WHERE THE LEADERS ARE CAMPAIGNING

    * Prime Minister Scott Morrison: is in Sydney at a rally in Homebush in the seat of Reid before heading to Perth.

    * Labor leader Bill Shorten: is in Melbourne at a childcare rally in the seat of Melbourne before heading to Perth.

    * Nationals leader Michael McCormack: is in Cairns (Leichhardt) before heading to George Christensen’s seat of Dawson in Mackay.

    —

    Thanks sprocket!

  2. poroti @ #73 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 8:41 am

    C@t

    On the site they had two versions listed for Microsoft. But say re your version “Microsoft’s design previously featured a full-toothed grin.” .

    Windows 10 October 2018 Update
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Windows 10 Anniversary Update
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Do they have keyboard codes to effect them?

  4. Macca is a hit around the late afternoon campfire and cuppa at caravan parks across the country where grey gypsies gather to spruik their PHON quotes.

  7. Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
    Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep.

    Hi Grimace.

    My prediction is 70 seats to Labor. (and Albo as new Leader of the Opposition.)

  9. I would have thought that Cathy O’Toole in Herbert could have benefited in this election from a Sophomore Surge? Or, does that only apply to Coalition MPs? 😐

  10. Put Josh Zepps, as one of the hosts, and Stan Grant as the interviewee, talking about the meaning of and threats to democratic tradition on both a global and local scale, and even ABC Breakfast TV can’t eff it up.

    So surprising to see at least some intelligence on both sides of the camera.

    Meanwhile, at Macca’s…

  11. Is “skeletonised” better or worse than being “decimated”?

    One assumes worst as decimated is to lose only 10%.

  15. Greg Jericho

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/28/reality-rarely-gets-a-run-in-an-election-campaign-full-of-feigned-outrage

    The big problem with the Morrison government is not nuclear power but that the day before the election was called it approved a nuclear mine in WA that will have major adverse effects on native wildlife and groundwater. That is reality.

    But we also had Labor announcing up to $1.5bn from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility to be used to unlock the gas supply of Beetaloo sub-basin to Darwin and the east coast.

    It continues the pretence both parties have on climate change.

    The LNP pretends climate change is a myth, while Labor pretends to want to act. And yes it has better policies (the easiest hurdle to clear) but for every move to reduce emissions, there is always one that will do more harm.

  17. i am going to go on the trend of the recent federal election ,when the libs/nats combined primary vote declines so do the number of libs/nats seats
    2013 Libs/nats combined primary vote 45.6% = 90 seats

    2016 libs/nats combined primary vote 42.5% = 76 seats

    2019 libs/nats combined primary vote 37% = 50 seats

    =======================================================

    Labor to get 95 seats in the house of reps

  19. Greg Jericho:

    But both major parties continue their absurd argument over who will have the biggest surplus, and laughable fights over how much taxation will be raised from now till 2030 – none of which anyone actually believes are even close to real.

  21. Yes Lizzie, me too, but the worried look on the female host when Stan started drifting off the reservation by suggesting that elections should be about ideas a little more subtle than tax cuts and “What’ll ya give me?” was priceless.

  23. The Sharkie story sounds very odd. Query whether “stalking” is just “keeping tabs on the Liberal campaign given their history of dodgy activities”.

    Given the police don’t like to act when women are systematically being harassed by violent ex partners, why are they so quick to wade in here?

  25. Is “skeletonised” better or worse than being “decimated”?
    One assumes worst as decimated is to lose only 10%.

    🙂
    I thought long and hard over ‘skeletonised’.

  26. frednk,

    I know what the road is like, I last drove on it a few months ago and saw the protest camp being discussed.

    I agree it needs to be improved, but I don’t believe that we should be bulldozing trees that predate white colonization of this country simply because VicRoads has a well known fetish for cutting down old trees and won’t consider alternative alignments.

    Victoria is the most heavily cleared state in the country and these trees are remanent vegetation that is hundreds of years old. It’s not something you can replace by sticking a couple of thousand tube stock in the ground somewhere else.

  27. Pegasus @ #119 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    Greg Jericho:

    But both major parties continue their absurd argument over who will have the biggest surplus, and laughable fights over how much taxation will be raised from now till 2030 – none of which anyone actually believes are even close to real.

    It shows clearly as a complete detachment from society and a parliamentary duopoly so wrapped up in their bubble.

  31. “I would have thought that Cathy O’Toole in Herbert could have benefited in this election from a Sophomore Surge? Or, does that only apply to Coalition MPs? ”

    Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle laying a giant turd on her front door have done her no favours.

    I reckon that of the four central Queensland seats potentially up for grabs, only the northern most one – Manila George’s seat of Dawson holds much promise for labor.

    Cathy’s best best is that the good burgher’s of Townsville remember the outrageous antics of ScoMo’s new best mate back in 2016 and punish the LNP for their UAP gambit.

    My best guess and hope for Queensland is that labor wins one of the four central Queensland seats (take your pick which one) and picks up Dickson, Forde and Pitrie down in the SE corner.

  35. So which is it; a duel lane to Adelaide with replanting of trees, or the current goat track? You cannot get through that area without cutting down trees.
    There would have been serious discussion on the issues when the alignment was decided.

    They wouldnt have considered smaller scale. You know how these things work.
    The whole system is geared to more roads, bigger roads. It is borderline corrupt and a bunch of trees dont stand a chance unless these government agencies and design and construction companies are forced to value the natural environment far more than they do now.

    70 crashes in a 5 year period between Ballarat and Stawell. Right, so lets bulldoze the crap out of the place? That is BS.

    And somehow they expect the traffic to double in the next 5 years? Really? Love to see the modelling on that. I suspect it was done by the same peeps who will be building the road.

    Touch up the existing road. Upgrade the railine.

  36. So Bill Shorten can subsidise childcare for workers earning around $170k but can’t see the need for a newstart increase for the starving and destitute ??

  39. AE

    What you call a giant turd is reality hitting the region.

    They are on the defensive as the world reality comes calling.
    What votes are lost in Qld will be more than made up for everywhere else.

  40. Suspect Insiders is going to bury Scott.. POV opens with irony of LNP gender quotas
    Then there will be corruption corruption corruption Barnaby Barnaby corruption corruption

  41. Ulman pushing the coalition line was smashed by Shorten on Channel 9 just before 9am. Questions on “big new tax” mantra and the public debate crap. Bill hit him out of the park with calm concise answers, including pointing out he had offered Ch 9 a “Canberra press club debate” but said Ulman must have been busy at lunch time – ouch. No questions on Adani.

  44. Wow the scale of Barnaby’s incompetence or whatever you want to call it is being revealed this morning re #watergate.

  46. I would have thought Morrison would have gotten “ more bang for his buck “ by targeting overall migration numbers than than the poor sods languishing in camps across the world.

    Morrison wants to cap the refugee numbers at 18000 and will attack labor for wanting to increase it to 30000.

    So, a difference of 12000 a year. How would this have any in&luence on congestion ?

    Anyway, it is all about dragging labor into this stupid area of debate and away from real issues.

    We shall see.

  50. Labor is dead right to focus on cost of living.

    Fix that and people will accept the costs of real action on climate change

    However that means telling workers the truth. As I have said before. So I hope the Qld CFMEU is backing Labor up about the automation and the net loss of jobs from coal mining vs the Reef.

    That’s what will save seats like Herbert for Labor. Not buying what the Nationals and LNP are saying. We got a real glimpse from QandA last time.

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