YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. While we are waiting for the Newspoll, if there is a hung parliament, which way do we think the current crossbenchers* will go?

    Bandt and Katter are probably givens for ALP and L/NP respectively.

    But what about Wilkie, Sharkie, Banks and Phelps?

    *(who are recontesting)

  2. Kouk, could you duck round to Chris’ place and tell him. He needs to know this stuff. And get him to tell Bill, it just might come in handy over the next couple of weeks,
    Oh, and shoot a memo down to the ad guys and gals, they might be able to do something with it…..just a long shot

  4. Ophuph Hucksake says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    nath –

    For 50 billion you ought revive the Outer Circle completely and extend it north back
    up to Alphington, thereby passing through Kooyong electorate. When pork-barrelling, you
    might as well go the whole hog.

    Apparently the company that owns Chadstone shops don’t want a rail
    connection. Trains bring the wrong sort riff-raff apparently – only nouveau riche riff-raff
    are welcome.
    __________________________
    1. yes I agree. do the whole lot.
    2. it’s become more and more exclusive that place. I haven’t been there for 10 years. Too big.

  7. Who would like to be an Election Worker 270 of them died in Indonesia from Fatigue

    Put me down for 50/50 been saying it for a while for Newspoll

  9. The Kouk seems to be repeating the data I have been putting on this site

    Except he does not refer to the 10 Year Bond Yield being at 1.7% and shedding basis points daily – which is a very real concern

    These factors are (generally) not being reported on deferring to the “strong economy” absolute nonsense of Ad Man from Mad Men BUT they have to be resonating across the diversity which is society

    Then you get to Climate Change

  10. 51-49 is Morrison’s best result since Turnbull was knifed. Be interesting if the Coalition has a 4 in front of the primary vote now.

  12. Back when I still subscribed to Foxtel and so could watch Sky News, I don’t recall Paul Murray being this much of an unhinged pro-coalition shill.

  15. Isle of Rocks

    Surely Wilkie would never support the ALP after he was so shafted by the ALP under Gillard over pokies reform.

  17. The Dickson ‘people’s forum’ has Dutton, the UAP and an independent candidate. Much being made of the Labor candidate being a no-show. Frankly, why would she turn up to this partisan affair?

  20. So, are those 4 Coalition MPs happy to see Australia’s gun laws relaxed? Because that’s what taking up the offer of support from Pauline Hanson means.

  21. Dutton given a free kick to attack the Labor candidate for not showing up. UAP takes up the cudgel as well.

    Lots of applause from the audience.

  22. At the 2016 election the Coalition had a PV of 42. The next two Newspolls were 50-50 with the Coalition having a PV of 41 – the last one being on the 11/09/16. They have not had a PV with a 4 in front for Newspoll for over two and a half years. Lets see if that changes tonight.

  25. It’s a democracy C@t people can direct their preferences wherever they want to. It’s not up to any candidate of any persuasion to refuse a preference.

  26. taylormade @ #877 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 9:09 pm

    Isle of Rocks

    Surely Wilkie would never support the ALP after he was so shafted by the ALP under Gillard over pokies reform.

    Conversely, Wilkie was given a hard time by the Liberals due to his positions on the Iraq war.

    However, he will not forget the pokies.

    He may try to avoid giving any sort of fixed support.

  28. C@t:

    It’s a partisan audience, heavily favouring Dutton and the conservative candidates who are up there with him.

  30. Interesting that the two other candidates both had to Google GetUp to learn who they are. I guess this means Capt GetUp is a massive own goal.

  32. Imma going to say 52.8 as a tightening, down from the 52.9 the other day.
    In three months the lodge is your’s scomo

  35. “With pre-polling starting tomorrow, we find out Labor have been pre-selecting lunatics in NT. The two NT seats just now look more promising.”

    Perhaps Michael. On the other hand. … Territorians … out there …

  39. All this talk of the now defunct rail lines in Melbourne remind me of my misspent youth in the 1970’s when as a J.S.A at Royal Park i had to act as a shunter for the north fitzroy goods.

  43. C@t:

    He said they tried to get legislation through the parliament to that effect. I don’t remember that at all.

  47. I have no idea what the Newspoll will show.

    As it is obvious there is a movement to the liberals it will be interesting if

    1) it goes as far as 50/50 and

    2} the primary vote for labor. If it remains the same then I would consider that a good result for labor. Any decrease combined with a rise in the coalition primary then that would be interesting.

    Anyway, the real campaign is now up and running so play the cards dealt.

    All good.

    Cheers.

  48. Time for the bet wetting thumb sucking arrogant lefties to sign off (the ones who claim about 50% of the population are idiots).

  50. Dutton said he wants to pass legislation to prevent a GetUp in future.

    Proof GetUp is killing them in the youth demographic… The Liberal / Country Party are paranoid

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