YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Another Shooting in USA, “WITH A GUN”:

    The Spectator Index
    ‏ @spectatorindex
    2m2 minutes ago

    BREAKING: One woman killed and three people injured in Southern California synagogue shooting, with a 19 year old man in custody.

  2. I like red gums too but new ones do have the tendency to grow; and old ones a tendency die no matter what they got used for in the few hundred years they lived.
    It would be far better to insist several hundred get replanted for each removed. Lock up a bit more land under forests which we desperately need

    You underestimate the cultural and ecological importance of stands of old trees and overestimate the ability of governments and construction contractors to successfully manage vegetation offsets.

  3. lizzie
    The average life of a red gum is 700 years; if they really are 800 years old, they are already into care and maintenance.

  4. Those on twitter should check out the feed of @john_hanna

    Not sure how he does it, but each morning he has the front pages of all the major newspapers.

    For example today, what is remarkable is that about half have Labor’s $4b cash splash on childcare, the Murdoch tabloids by and large are silent on politics (they must be recalibrating whilst licking their wounds), whilst the right wing West Australian has this ‘pearl clutcher’

  5. Good Morning

    LNP more desperate than I thought. Going with Howard. That worked so well in Wentworth.

    Going back to dog whistling might just push Burnside over the line in Kooyong.

  6. Simon² Katich®

    A large part of modern project approval is the ecological and environmental studies. Noone is perfect, we all make mistakes but I bet the reports are closer to reality than a random report in the newspaper.

  7. Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
    Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep.

    If you would like to join email your prediction for the number of seats that Labor will win to sjapplin@hotmail.com. Your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded with my apologies in advance to anyone inadvertently caught by the spam filter. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included. I have a full-time job and a young family to keep me occupied.

    The rules of the competition are:
    • Your seat count prediction must be an integer
    • All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged
    • Your first prediction is final

    The prize is gloating rights.

    Name__________Labor
    Davidwh__________74
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  8. “BREAKING: One woman killed and three people injured in Southern California synagogue shooting, with a 19 year old man in custody.”….

    The NRA strategy: de-sensitize the people to gun shootings and killings by transforming them into a USA normal way of life, without which, you are not a true America anymore. Then keep reinforcing the meme by repeating ad nauseam: “The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun”…. all along throwing millions to hard-Republicans’ political campaigns….

    The NRA: a weaponised Murdoch-equivalent.

  9. frednk says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 7:30 am
    On these figures Labor is headed for a landslide and you want more?
    —————————————
    Until every Coalition seat is lost I will want more.

  10. The Spectator Index
    ‏ @spectatorindex
    3m3 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Southern California synagogue gunman describes himself as white nationalist motivated by Christchurch shootings and left an anti-Semitic manifesto.

    Great timing for Liberals /sarcasm.

  11. Scott Morrison’s new line: ‘WE will decide which White Supremacists we let come to this country, and the manner in which they come!’

    …Usually with a Visa and a paid speaking tour to brainwash people.

  12. A large part of modern project approval is the ecological and environmental studies. Noone is perfect, we all make mistakes but I bet the reports are closer to reality than a random report in the newspaper.

    I have worked on highway projects. I know how little they value old ecosystems in design considerations. I know people who do offset plantings well (most dont). And I know that you simply can not ‘offset’ old ecosystems.

    I am over it. Stop clearing valuable natural environments.

  13. Macca? Insiders is a far better way to start a Sunday morning. That is of cause after going through BK’s list ( thank you BK).

  14. The Liberals preselected someone from the Christian Taliban in Curtin and are surprised that their vote has tanked there?

    They are also pouring resources into Cowan rather than sandbagging Hasluck, Swan and Pearce.

    The delusion runs strong in the WA Liberals.

  15. I assume that YouGovt is giving ON the same pref weighting in favour of the libs as Newspoll (though at 4 per cent it’s not as important) I’ve got a feeling in my gut (which often signals wind) that the polls are really about 54 – 46. Newspoll will be deeply reluctant (for various reasons) to break out of 52 – 48 this side of the election.

  16. Actually, in all seriousness, it is in areas like this that Donald Trump is going to come undone I think. Just the other day he reaffirmed his White Nationalist credentials by adding another affirmative comment about the Charlottesville incident in order to keep his bigoted White base onside, but, at one and the same time he is trying to encourage a peeling-away of the Jewish vote from the Democrats by supporting Netanyahu’s Ethnonationalist policies in Israel. However, you can’t have it both ways, as this additional shooting in a Synagogue by a White Nationalist in California has shown.

    Donald Trump has proven time and again that he is an Evil Genius at squaring the circle, which is what he does during his ‘Executive Time’ every day, which is, keep the base barinwashing ball rolling out, so I’ll be interested to see how he and his malign minions message this atrocity.

  17. SBW makes a good point about the local ‘White Supremacist’ types lately.

    Sonny Bill Williams

    Verified account

    @SonnyBWilliams
    Follow Follow @SonnyBWilliams
    More
    This is what an Australian Senator put on his twitter page.
    It’s remarkable how cocky a Racist can be in the today’s society.

    :large

  18. In SA we have the Open Space scheme. When you divide land you have to pay a certain amount of money into the Open Space fund for each new allotment to compensate for the open space that will be lost.

    And while that money goes straight into revenue…. successive governments have cut funding to national parks, environmental projects and conservation.

  19. Interesting post by Bug1 earlier, converting the reported primary numbers to 2PP of 47.3 or 47.4 to the coalition. Obviously the Murdoch narrative fits better with a tally of 52/48 rather than 53/47! Such as this effort in the Advertiser:

    “Federal Election 2019: YouGov Galaxy poll finds Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded”

    I reckon Bludgertrack is about right – Labors 2PP of 52.5 seems to be pretty consistent, and will deliver a comfortable win on the current trend. Bring on Newspoll and ER!

  20. There is a sarcasm emoji

    Upside-Down Face
    A classic smiley, turned upside down. Implemented as a flipped version of Slightly Smiling Face on most platforms.

    Commonly used to convey irony, sarcasm, joking, or a sense of goofiness or silliness. Its intent can be similar to the bemused Oh well! of Person Shrugging or the shruggie emoticon, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

    Microsoft’s design previously featured a full-toothed grin.

    Upside-Down Face was approved as part of Unicode 8.0 in 2015 and added to Emoji 1.0 in 2015.

  21. S K

    I agree with the Open Space exchange for parks within cities, but also that new plantings can no way substitute for established vegetation. It’s a con. Ask the birds. They’ll tell you.

  22. I love GetUp.

    Watching Paul Kelly and all the other conservatives foaming at the mouth against GetUp gives me comfort.

    GetUp is a lesson to Shorten on how to cut through with strength and conviction.

  23. I’m betting on Labor to win 79 seats with independents to pull off a couple of surprises to end up with 7. LNP on 65. Labor to have a comfortable effective majority, without winning in a landslide.

  24. lizzie, there is talk that Adelaide could become a National Park city. The idea being to protect trees, remnant native veg and parks. But there is already legislation that does that. Only it has loopholes, and the department charged with checking and enforcing the rules have been skeletonised. So the legislation is meaningless.

  25. On campaigning strategy, Bill Shorten’s childcare announcement is dominating the mainstream media news outlets this morning – the day before pre-poll starts. And TanyaP is on Insiders to provide some well researched and rehearsed grabs, which the ABC and others will replay all day long.

    As for the brilliant LNP brains trust, and their Murdoch running dogs, how do they have Scotty opening up the day?

  26. sprocket_ @ #70 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    On campaigning strategy, Bill Shorten’s childcare announcement is dominating the mainstream media news outlets this morning – the day before pre-poll starts. And TanyaP is on Insiders to provide some well researched and rehearsed grabs, which the ABC and others will replay all day long.

    As of the brilliant LNP brains trust, and their Murdoch running dogs, how do they have Scotty opening up the day?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    He’s a Loser, like his team!?! 😆


  27. bakunin says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:26 am

    Frednk,

    VicRoads took “we all make mistakes” to a whole new level when they bulldozed 900 old trees without planning permission as part of the same road widening project in 2015.

    So which is it; a duel lane to Adelaide with replanting of trees, or the current goat track?

    You cannot get through that area without cutting down trees.
    There would have been serious discussion on the issues when the alignment was decided.

  28. C@t

    On the site they had two versions listed for Microsoft. But say re your version “Microsoft’s design previously featured a full-toothed grin.” .

    Windows 10 October 2018 Update

    Windows 10 Anniversary Update

  29. Outsider says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:36 am

    I’m betting on Labor to win 79 seats with independents to pull off a couple of surprises to end up with 7. LNP on 65. Labor to have a comfortable effective majority, without winning in a landslide.

    I just took that number; move aside

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