YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 22
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  1. “nath
    How good would the Outer Circle Line be today? People travelling from the northern suburbs could travel from Clifton Hill to Oakleigh in 35 minutes.”
    at least we kept our trams when everyone else was digging up the tracks.

  4. LOL Mundo – you’re precious.

    Also – genuine question who thinks the majors are acting like this is a 2 point game?

  11. Re. Newspoll………….this last week was mostly Easter and Anzac Day, very little campaigning of any substance, that’d tend to advantage the incumbants.
    In a way too, a narrowing poll result would reduce the aura of complacency some Labor people might have about the real result on May 18, although of course I understand too that the media will run with the narrative of “Morrison comeback”.
    Kevin Bonham in today’s paper in Sydney was quoted as saying that Labor only needed a 2PP vote of 49.8% to win 76 or more seats, based on the redistributions since the 2016 election.

  12. Steve Watson says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    Nath,

    According to Michael Cannon in his classic The Land Boomers, it took 4 hours and 20 minutes to travel from Oakleigh to the City via Fairfield during the four years that the Outer Circle line operated (not that it would take that long to travel from Oakleigh to Fairfield today if the line still existed).

    At the risk of getting myself banned for advertising, you might be interested in my diagrammatic history of Melbourne’s railway system. You can view it at trainsandtrams.com
    ____________________
    Thanks Steve. I assume it took that long because there was no elevated line in Abbotsford and you had to go from outer circle all the way through north melbourne? thanks ill check it out.

  14. The disaffection among voters is really quite visible. Anti-Lib sentiment is not necessarily manifesting as pro-Labor intention; but simply as anger and hostility in general. The Lib campaign is aimed at dissuading voters from moving, no matter how many lies need to e]be told, no matter how dirty it gets. The campaign is intended to exacerbate frustration and resentment. It’s working.

  15. Ignore the hint.

    He could be referring to 2pp, liberal vs labor primary, liberal primary by itself, net sats or ppm.

    The Australian tends to focus on ppm when the liberals get the incumbency advantage, so it’s probably that.

  18. nath(1) – Yes, it looks even worse up close. California Bungalows – with their excellent verandahs – bulldozed and replaced by tacky faux-Georgian manor houses, or double-storey French provincial “mansions”. No eaves, built as close to property lines as possible. Apparently the pediments on these things are made of rendered styrofoam … the frames and trusses can’t support the weight of one made of stone or concrete. The owners discover this after a giant hailstorm.

    nath(2) – The Alamein line is all that remains of the Outer Circle. Some quaint wooden station buildings too. The one at Hartwell, with its hardwood-floored waiting area, had been transported from Walhalla. This is one case where I would favor a conversion to light rail – then extending the line to Chadstone.

  19. J341983 says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:38 pm
    What Scott?

    —————

    Just a guess ,when Kenny ignores the Labor primary vote , it is usually good news for Labor , they are still on 39% or up 1%

  20. With pre-polling starting tomorrow, we find out Labor have been pre-selecting lunatics in NT. The two NT seats just now look more promising.

  21. I have not watched Sky After Dark in years. Gawd this is hilarious. Do people actually watch this and think that this is indicative of how most Australians think and feel?

  24. This is an odd election as not only do the LNP have to catch up with Labor, but they actually have to win some seats as well………..this may happen or course, but the LNP have very little fat to spare when it comes to seats…………..Of course, a tightening is always expected in a two horse race but the poison would be if the trend rested and then actually went the LNP way. All the talk, for the past three years about the “trend being my friend” would be just so much hot air. If a party can lead for months and months in the polls, and then in the last few weeks see it all go down, what is the point of any poll at all other than one a week or two out from an election?

  32. Nath,

    The original Outer Circle involved trains reversing at Victoria Park (the connection between Princes Bridge and Victoria Park didn’t open until 1900), travelling to North Fitzroy, reversing to travel to Fitzroy (the platform was just south of the Edinburgh Gardens), reversing again and travelling to Spencer Street via Royal Park and North Melbourne. No wonder it took nearly four and a half hours.

  33. Ophuph Hucksake says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:40 pm

    nath(1) – Yes, it looks even worse up close. California Bungalows – with their excellent verandahs – bulldozed and replaced by tacky faux-Georgian manor houses, or double-storey French provincial “mansions”. No eaves, built as close to property lines as possible. Apparently the pediments on these things are made of rendered styrofoam … the frames and trusses can’t support the weight of one made of stone or concrete. The owners discover this after a giant hailstorm.

    nath(2) – The Alamein line is all that remains of the Outer Circle. Some quaint wooden station buildings too. The one at Hartwell, with its hardwood-floored waiting area, had been transported from Walhalla. This is one case where I would favor a conversion to light rail – then extending the line to Chadstone.
    ______________________
    I had a rather ambitious idea of extending the Alamein line via tunnel after Alamein station, with an underground link to Holmesglen station, but moving that towards the Freeway, so that the next underground station would be Chadstone, then continuing the tunnel to eventually link up to the Dandenong line at Oakleigh, then running a new line out to Huntingdale and then a tunnel to Monash Uni and then a station at Waverley. Anyone got 50 billion 🙂

  34. Chances are Newspoll have adjusted One Nation because they are only running in 55 seats so Coalition may have gone up in the primary vote.

  35. Steve Watson says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:46 pm

    Nath,

    The original Outer Circle involved trains reversing at Victoria Park (the connection between Princes Bridge and Victoria Park didn’t open until 1900), travelling to North Fitzroy, reversing to travel to Fitzroy (the platform was just south of the Edinburgh Gardens), reversing again and travelling to Spencer Street via Royal Park and North Melbourne. No wonder it took nearly four and a half hours.
    ______________________
    Good god!

  37. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    I’m sorry but this is delusional
    The economy is not strong:
    GDP per capita recession
    Underlying inflation at record low
    Job ads falling for 8 months
    Interest rates poised to fall to 1.0% or less
    Labour market is weakening with unemployment + underemployment over 13%

  38. Oh this is hilarious! Kenny’s guests are now not only demanding the ABC have a primetime debate (because the ABC is THE broadcaster qualified to host leaders debates), but an actual debate commission be established to manage them all.

    LOL of LOLs given they locked and loaded behind Abbott ducking and weaving on fronting up to debates in 2013.

  39. Steve Watson

    It is a while since I have been in Edinburgh Gardens in North Fitzroy – didn’t there used to be an old locomotive there? So the old spur line went through the middle of what is now the gardens, and there is now a pathway on that alignment.

  40. The Kouk is right. Plenty of voters in Perth’s north talk about ‘the recession we’ve had for the last few years’. Incomes are under pressure; discretionary spending is weak-to-invisible; household debts are high; plenty of reasonably new houses are vacant, some even already derelict-looking. The Libs promised economic success and have not delivered. They have dismally failed.

  41. nath –

    For 50 billion you ought revive the Outer Circle completely and extend it north back
    up to Alphington, thereby passing through Kooyong electorate. When pork-barrelling, you
    might as well go the whole hog.

    Apparently the company that owns Chadstone shops don’t want a rail
    connection. Trains bring the wrong sort riff-raff apparently – only nouveau riche riff-raff
    are welcome.

  42. You’ve got to wonder how much worse the economy would have to get, before people would stop believing that the Coalition are the better economic mangers!

  43. Rocket Rocket says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:54 pm

    Steve Watson

    It is a while since I have been in Edinburgh Gardens in North Fitzroy – didn’t there used to be an old locomotive there? So the old spur line went through the middle of what is now the gardens, and there is now a pathway on that alignment.
    _______________________
    There was indeed an old locomotive there. I used to play on it as a child in the early 80s. It was a major source of severe cuts and bruises for local children. It was then painted black at some point before being removed. The place where the coal was stored was a sloping tray where we would scramble up. Ah the memories of screams, crying and triumph.

  44. ‘The economy is not strong:
    GDP per capita recession
    Underlying inflation at record low
    Job ads falling for 8 months
    Interest rates poised to fall to 1.0% or less
    Labour market is weakening with unemployment + underemployment over 13%’

    And Labor has made this abundantly clear during the campaign how?

  47. Rocket, Nath,

    There was a K class locomotive in the Edinburgh Gardens – while I was on Yarra Council we agreed to donate it to the Mornington Peninsula Railway. Steam locomotives are full of asbestos, and the advice was that the public liability risk was too great for us to keep it. I understand that rather than being restored, the engine we donated is being used for parts.

    At the same time we also donated the footbridge that joined Freeman St and Alfred Crescent – it has been restored and is at Mooroduc Station.

  49. 1980 The late seventies saw the replacement of the roadside goods and country railmotor services by road transport from regional hubs

    The motor from Portland to Hamilton. As a kid it did not get much better than that.

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