The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).
It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.
Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:
Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.
Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.
Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.
Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.
Senate developments:
• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.
• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.
52-48 for Newspoll is my guess, can’t see how it’d differ too much from today’s poll in the News Ltd Sunday tabloids, but we’ll see.
Just popping out for some adult diapers…3 weeks worth.
Kenny’s hints,the ones I’ve seen, have always been very ‘scrutable’ . No doubt about his hints.
Question for those who live in Western Australia – do the Liberals really have a chance of taking back Cowan? The media reckons the WA Libs are putting a lot of resources into the seat.
Western Australia is the wildcard this time, I think, if a swing against the Libs is really on in that state, 3 ministers(Wyatt, Porter, Irons) are in danger.
If anyone is watching Chris Kenny, could they please share the hint he gives?
If a guy drives a car into a group of pedestrians what penalty does he incur?
If a guy drives a horse into a crowd of Adani protesters what penalty does he incur?
“Julia Banks preferences Labor in Flinders, infuriating former Liberal colleagues ”
Funny, i thought independents could preference whomever they wish.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/labor-warns-coalition-deals-with-rightwing-minor-parties-will-cause-chaos
booleanbach @ #879 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:04 pm
I read that story earlier. My only thought is WTF is wrong with people? I just don’t get it.
Seen video tweets from 10 minutes ago of Chris Kenny surprisingly with some pretty tough questions interviewing Angus Taylor on #Watergate. Also a separate video of him asking Pauline Hanson some questions about her racism. Kenny didn’t look overly cocky to me. But..who knows..
Re the 1945 Melbourne Map. Sad to see whole streets of Californian Bungalows demolished for 2 storey apartment buildings. Anyone interested should look at Glen Huntly between the Frankston line and Grange Rd. What a shame!
I just watched the Uhlmann/Shorten interview and I thought Chris Uhlmann was feisty and combative but not belligerent or belittling. He respectfully let Bill Shorten talk his way out of confrontational questions and they finished with best wishes for each other.
I could see nothing wrong, or biased against Bill Shorten, about it at all.
If, as yabba suggests, the media are about to dump on the recently dis-elected (in 2017) One Nation Queensland State MP Steve Dickson, is this all part of the ‘boost UAP at the expense of ON’ plan?
I predict that the “Treaty of Non-Aggression between the Liberal-National Coalition and the United Australia Party”, to be announced tomorrow, will come to haunt Morrison.
I get really annoyed that we have to put up with people like Kenny while awaiting Newspoll results. In fact it is very annoying that Murdoch is mixed up with opinion polling.
It would be really good to see scheduled opinion polling conducted by AEC using ABS methodology. The polling schedule would be fixed to prevent any political interference with timing and the polling methodology would be made public (no more Newspoll PHON adjustment).
Is there any reason why this could not occur?
nath
I have also been following the course of the South-Eastern/Monash Freeway, again looking at the changes to watercourses, and the rows of houses swallowed up (and parkland).
The Inner Circle Railway is also interesting, and the side-branch down into Fitzroy, and the Gasometers next to Alexandra Parade.
The runways at Fisherman’s Bend were built at the same time as the Government Aircraft Factory. Presumably the planes were manufactured and flew off to the war from there. The runways are shown in the 1966 Melways (a great online resource), though with the proposed West Gate Bridge running through them.
You nailed it Rocket. Why did we put Freeways over our waterways? Gardiners Creek in the S.E. Koonung Creek in the East. Perfect places for billabong parklands. Ah, to be overlord of Melbourne! 🙂
A couple months ago when we were musing over the Liberal women who’d be left in the partyroom after the election, we didn’t imagine Sussan Ley might be one of those to get dumped by voters. Just watched this from her electorate, and was surprised to see protests from truckies about water, and billboards on the roadside indicating locals feel completely shafted by the MDB plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt8h_SKke6Y&feature=youtu.be
The UAP Senate HTV…. for what its worth….. has included Labor on its ticket in Qld and NSW at least.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/senate-qld-htv/#C
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/senate-nsw-htv/#Z
While it doesn’t seem like much, its significant in that One Nation and the Greens are not on the HTV at all.
Newspoll watch…
Is it possible to wear out the refresh button in Chrome?
citizen
Good polling is expensive, but probably more accurate than some of the robo-polls. I do wish we had a bit more competition in this space though – hopefully we will get weekly ones for the next three weeks from each of Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos at least.
How good would the Outer Circle Line be today? People travelling from the northern suburbs could travel from Clifton Hill to Oakleigh in 35 minutes.
citizen:
The only reason I can see (in fact the big reason) is thatI’d argue it isn’t the remit of govt to conduct voting intention polling. Ideally I’d like to see more pollsters step into this space, as at the moment it feels like it’s all News ltd dominated.
Evan……….put in a post a couple of days ago on the same topic. In simple terms, Labor must win Hasluck, Swan and probably Pearce to contribute to a Labor win nationally. For some time they have been looking good. Cowan I do not know enough about but with a swing on for Labor it should be okay. Actually, WA is not really a wild card in my view, as when the swing is on, WA tends to swing with the rest of Oz, though somewhat more intensively. If the swing is on, then Stirling may also be in danger for the Libs. Some PBers are doing the hard yards in Perth’s northern suburbs and, until quite recently, they have been quite optimistic…………….However, the West newspaper as much as it has influence these days has been blatantly and unreservedly pro Liberal while the “debate” tomorrow, organised by Stokes and his outfit, is likely to see Bill Shorten lose 50 – 0 to Morrison. The three running it are light-weights and/or under starters orders.
Steve Watson
Interesting – I suppose it is the most efficient way to deliver aircraft. Also note the enormous Vickers-Ruwolt munitions factory on the Yarra in Abbotsford just south of Victoria St (now Ikea and Vic Gardens)
mundo @ #893 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
If you install C+ you won’t need to keep refreshing – comments load automatically as they’re posted.
Steve777
“Newspollbludger”
For your own wellbeing mundo… best not to try.
One poll doesn’t make an election. Frankly I think a status quo result is more likely than some kind of massive move, but as I said, I’m not taking this, or any polls taken this weekend seriously… not that I wouldn’t like to see a clear Labor lead to help the narrative lol
re: WA, I don’t think Pearce is a fair benchmark 😉 – as AG they’ll be flooding resources into it to save him.
Tricot: thanks for your post!
Christian Porter losing Pearce would be rather nice, he’s one of the more arrogant born to rule lot.
One of my favourite Labor WA MPs is Matt Keogh, who’s in Burt, his seat is pretty safe so he’ll be OK this time.
Labor NT Senate candidate Wayne Kurnoth is expected to stand aside tomorrow morning after it was revealed by The Australian that he shared an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that claims the world is being run by a secret society of Jewish shape shifting lizards.
Labor sources told The Australian this evening that Mr Kurnoth acknowledges what he did was unacceptable. After being counselled by senior Labor figures he said he doesn’t want to be a distraction to the party and will stand down.
His name will remain at the number two spot on Labor’s NT Senate ticket, as ballot papers have already been printed.
Mr Kurnoth shared a video of British lecturer David Icke on his Facebook page in December 2015.
In the video, Mr Icke preaches his anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that an inter-dimensional race of giant Jewish lizards have hijacked the earth and are stopping humanity from realising its true potential. He claims American presidents, royalty and the Rothschild family are descendants of these reptiles.
Mr Kurnoth also shared an image in October 2016, made by a fake news website, that spouts Mr Icke’s conspiracy that ‘Rothschild Zionists’ secretly run the world by controlling the media, Hollywood, governments and global finance.
The Labor candidate was forced to apologise on Friday for posting an ISIS-inspired image online depicting Malcolm Turnbull severing the head of ABC journalist Emma Alberici.
His Facebook page was deleted that afternoon.
When asked about Mr Kurnoth on Friday, Mr Shorten described him as “incredibly stupid” but refused to disendorse him as a Labor candidate.
Dr Dvir Abramovich, chairman of the Anti-Defamation Commission, said it’s highly alarming that a Labor candidate has shared the “virulent anti-Jewish rantings” of Mr Icke.
According to the Anti-Defamation Commission, Mr Icke believes that Jewish people bankrolled Hitler, caused the 2008 global financial crisis, staged the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and that far-right groups are fronts for Jewish people.
Fark waiting for Kenny and his hint is hard yakka. Had to put up with Poolene , Sheridan, Bernardi and now David Flint.
Holden Hillbilly says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:24 pm
Labor NT Senate candidate Wayne Kurnoth is expected to stand aside tomorrow morning after it was revealed by The Australian that he shared an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that claims the world is being run by a secret society of Jewish shape shifting lizards.
___________________________
what the actual fuck?
In the unwinnable number 2 spot
Labor NT Senate candidate Wayne Kurnoth is expected to stand aside tomorrow morning after The Australian revealed that he shared an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that claims the world is being run by a secret society of Jewish shape shifting lizards. theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic…
Listening to Ken Wyatt on the telly, can’t understand what attracting him to the tory party….
Morrison channeling Howard
“We make decisions about who comes here based on what’s in Australia’s interests.”
Is he going to ‘stop the planes’? – seeing as 27,391 protection visa applications were lodged in the 2017-2018 financial year (compared to the previous peak of 26,845 in 2012-2013)
[data from Department of Home Affairs Website]
Keeping looking deeply into his eyes, poroti.
What makes Wyatt a Tory was that he was preselected by them…
Kenny saying NewsPoll has tightened again
Guessing 51/49
Pass the hat for Poroti, I think a nice Shiraz is in order…..
Holden Hillbilly
After living in the Territory for some years – nothing ever surprises us about anything that happens there!
Good lord where do these people get this shit from?
Everyone knows that if shape shifting lizards were to adhere to any kind of religious belief they’d be scientologists.
Polls are tightening. 51-49
oh fck I was right.
You guys, jeez.
Nath,
According to Michael Cannon in his classic The Land Boomers, it took 4 hours and 20 minutes to travel from Oakleigh to the City via Fairfield during the four years that the Outer Circle line operated (not that it would take that long to travel from Oakleigh to Fairfield today if the line still existed).
At the risk of getting myself banned for advertising, you might be interested in my diagrammatic history of Melbourne’s railway system. You can view it at trainsandtrams.com
Things between Hunt and Banks must be personal. She’s obviously trying to procure his defeat. Revenge will be sweet for her. Excellent.
Regarding the UAP ticket, it makes perfect sense that Palmer would omit other Lib-clones from his list. Their success cannot possibly improve his position. If there is a balance of power to be found, he wants it. Besides, by leaving them off entirely he doesn’t have to explain why he is or is not placing them last.
Good news for the Liberal Primary according to CK.
sprocket_
Looks that way.
Re Porter, a few days ago, a local seat poll, and mentioned here, shows him 50-50. Now, given the MOE who knows with these polls, but he does not have a lot of time to spend anywhere else at the moment.
Holden Hillbilly @8:24PM.
Where do they find these idiots? Did he watch the 80s sci fi mini series “V” and think it was a documentary?