YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. I reckon the polling must be awful for the LNP. That is steady as she goes. Thus the Wow!!!

    Before the announcements from Labor today I thought best we could hope for.

    The stripper story about Rudd is why the LNP won’t be using dirt files.
    They won’t want to boost Labor’s standing. If they do start using that I will expect their primary vote results to be approaching Green levels.

    Edit: are we sure the stripper is not in drag?

  2. “nath
    1892CFC
    thanks for that 1945 Melbourne map. What a treat. At the moment looking over Collingwood and the scar that the Eastern Freeway put on the landscape.”
    Thanks Nath – I also like looking over Flemington Rd near the RCH you can see the army bivouacked in the open parkland.
    Plus the trees in the Royal Botanic Gardens and around the music bowl; are so much smaller than now./

  3. Doesn’t matter what the polling is tonight – the Howard-esque bribery of the entitled middle class from Labor today will see them sail home from here.

    Gone are the Howard battlers. They’re now BILL’S BATTLERS.

  8. The ’72, ’83 & ’07 elections were a fait accompli. The forthcoming election, though, is different. For Labor to win, it’ll have to play as dirty as its opponents, and not be concerned thereof. Go for the jugular at every appropriate opportunity, just like the Tories have mastered. Whipinnesss will not win the election.

  9. The ABC has already announced Shorten will be appearing on Q&A on Monday May 6, so that would tend to rule out a debate with Scomo on that night.

  11. At the risk of restarting the Rudd vs Gillard war…………….K Rudd was campaigning with Graham Perrett in the seat of Moreton today, will be interesting to see if Rudd is helping out Labor candidates in other QLD marginal seats

  12. ‘I agree Jordan. Would not be surprised if News poll shows 51/49 2pp to Labor tonight.’

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see 51/49 to the tories tonight..

  16. Labor’s dental health announcement today went down very well with my mother, who has a commonwealth seniors health card, mind you she’s a rusted on Labor voter anyway.
    I think this will be a hard one for Morrison and Greg Hunt to tear down, and Hunt will be too busy in Flinders, which is even more dodgy for him in light of Julia Banks’s preference distribution announcement today.
    Hunt is one of the more odious Liberals.

  17. 1892CFC

    Coode Island – the original Yarra course north of it – the Coode canal was man-made wasn’t it?

    ?Second racetrack at Flemington – never knew about that

    Nearby – Showgrounds with the old main stadium (which has since been demolished) – at one time in the 80s-90s there was a plan to develop this as an AFL ground for Essendon and North Melbourne I think.

    This is more distracting than an old Melways – they only go back to the 1960s!

  18. Dirt files work. Just ask NSW Opposition Leader Michael Daley. If there’s anything to find or anything can can be beat up or made up, it will come out in the last couple of weeks of the campaign in a coordinated release with Newscrap.

  20. At the risk of restarting the Rudd vs Gillard war

    Basil: So, that’s two egg mayonnaise, a prawn Goebbels, a Hermann Goering, and four Colditz salads. Wait a moment, I got a bit confused here, sorry. Sorry, I got a bit confused because everyone keeps mentioning the war, so could you… what’s the matter?
    Elder Herr: Will you stop talking about the war?
    Basil: Me? You started it!
    Elder Herr: We did not start it!
    Basil: Yes you did, you invaded Poland!

  21. Steve777, I’ve already noticed on social media Morrison supporters regurgitating the old rape allegations against Shorten, expecting News Ltd will give that another run.
    The Daily Telecrap in Sydney is so unbalanced, it’s laughable. Example……….glowing interview with Jenny Morrison one day, and endless pics of Scomo sculling a beer or being “a good bloke”, totally nauseating. Betcha Chloe Shorten won’t be getting a similar puff piece.

  23. Interesting Vote Compass survey for the leaders.

    Nath will no doubt be crushed that Shorten rated more trustworthy and competent overall.

  24. Morrison has been in plenty of pubs but has he ever done the Turnbull routine of using public transport?

    Surely that would show him as a “man of the people” but of course he probably doesn’t know how to use an OPAL or MYKI card (or their equivalents in other cities).

  28. nath – I reckon the airfield might have been the precursor to the old GAF Government Aircraft Factory. One of my mates at high school got an apprenticeship there around 1985. Although the GMH plant ( which my Grandad ended up working at after he came back from New Guinea) takes up a fair chunk of the more east west landing strip.
    The things that get me are really the parkland trees and how small they are compared to now – the proverb comes to mind ( one of the characters quotes it the Netflix series ‘Afterlife”) – a society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in.

  29. I have decided to sew the hems on a new pair of pants I have bought to wear to the Pre Poll, while I wait for Newspoll. 🙂

  30. Guys, in the fair dinkum department, what’s happened not only this past fortnight to change anything, but indeed since yesterday’s Galaxy poll which had it still at 52:48, and many experts saying more akin to 53:47?

    Can’t think of anything.

  32. Burgey @ #828 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 7:41 pm

    Guys, in the fair dinkum department, what’s happened not only this past fortnight to change anything, or indeed since yesterday’s Galaxy poll which had it still at 52:48, and many experts saying more akin to 53:47?

    Can’t think of anything.

    Lots and lots and lots of fluff and nonsense from Stuntman Scott.

  35. Izzy – just saw it on ABC news. They gave the results for about 4 or 5 questions (over all and by party).

    The only time Morrison scored better was with Liberal voters. All the rest Shorten did better.

    If it does a rerun – I’ll try to note down the results in detail.

  36. Poll movements can be counterintuitive, particularly when the beholder sees every move made by the ALP as a masterstroke of political genius.

  37. Barrie Cassidy should be the compare. Labor should insist: ABC Primetime deserves the best and most senior ABC political journalist.

  39. 1892CFC says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 7:40 pm

    nath – I reckon the airfield might have been the precursor to the old GAF Government Aircraft Factory. One of my mates at high school got an apprenticeship there around 1985. Although the GMH plant ( which my Grandad ended up working at after he came back from New Guinea) takes up a fair chunk of the more east west landing strip.
    The things that get me are really the parkland trees and how small they are compared to now – the proverb comes to mind ( one of the characters quotes it the Netflix series ‘Afterlife”) – a society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in.
    ______________________________
    Yes that sounds right. The GAF continued partly as Hawker de Havilland until the 1980s when bought by Boeing. There is still a Boeing facility there now!

  42. @Itep …And go against how the parties are behaving…

    Anyway, we’re trying to interpret poll numbers we haven’t seen yet lol

  44. nath, 1892CFC

    I will ask someone I know who worked in Defence in Fisherman’s Bend about those runways. The reasonable constancy of sports ovals is something to be happy about – I’m sure there are cities around the word where many of them would have been built over in those 75 years.

  46. Hoping Reid is a Labor gain, Sam Crosby has a very professional Facebook page, looks and sounds like the sort of young bloke who’d be an asset to Federal Labor.
    The other interesting aspect of this election – the big number of female candidates Labor is running in Liberal marginal seats.

  49. Meanwhile in other parts of the world:
    “European countries trade well over $500 billion more per year with Asia than they do with the United States, and thus have more at stake in trans-Eurasian integration. Neither Germany, France or the UK has joined the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, but all three joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2015.
    Germany’s Trade and Invest and chambers of commerce have formulated strategies to compete for more BRI business, with Siemens signing dozens of agreements for projects with Chinese partners. The UK-China “Infrastructure Alliance” aims to put British business front and center as vendors in third countries where Chinese investment is growing, while UK Export Finance subsidizes billions’ worth of British industry projects along its trade routes to the east.
    China’s Belt and Road plan
    Europe is showing how to engage with China while competing with it at the same time.”

    An interesting read; i guess we are not at the summit because of the election; but whoever takes up the foreign affairs portfolio will need to have their wits about them re. the BRI.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/26/opinions/not-all-roads-lead-to-beijing-opinion/index.html

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