The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).
It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.
Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:
Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.
Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.
Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.
Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.
Senate developments:
• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.
• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.
“However, it is probably not unfair to say that, having arrived, he was inclined to thrust himself in front of every camera in sight. And people down here seem to remember that behaviour, and see it as casting a negative light on the man as he stands on the threshold of becoming PM.”
Who is the pompous twat who wrote this shite?
Is that you Paul Kelly?
PVO probably hasn’t even seen the Newspoll as yet. He’s having a lend.
Dee Madigan told me she sees the Newspoll when it’s posted on Sky – and she’s actually on air when it happens. No heads up for her as a panellist, so I’d be surprised if PVO gets it early given he’s on the nose with the Sky crew.
Then again , he may have a mate on the inside who’s told him, having said all that. All will be revealed this evening I suppose.
GG is a troll concerning concern trolls.
Relax GG nothing to worry about yet.
So I’m not changing my call, but other (conservative, need it be stated) News Corp journos are saying “wow” re: newspoll.
Anything from 51-53 in favour of the ALP surely isn’t a “wow”, and a 54 seems unlikely to bring out the conservatives (although would align to the deleted Chris Kenny post?).
Reiterating that I think the polls have lost touch with reality, could we be looking at 50/50 or even 49-51 just in time for tomorrow’s debate?
Or are they just trolling?
The next question will be, given the lack of policy, funding, and campaign tenacity, will we see ScoMo try and use the debates to bring down Bill (and will anyone pay attention?). Would he dare attempt personal attacks?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-kooyong-level-crossing-plan-falls-100-million-short-labor-says-20190428-p51i00.html
Frydenberg is in a panic – the level crossing removal can’t not be built the way he said it will.
For one thing it will put the train line below the water table and cause it flood ever time it rains. Under Glenferrie is the main stormwater drain to Grarnder’s creek. The crossing is only a couple metres higher than the creek. It just won’t drain…..
The train line needs a clearance of at least 4 metres and so does the tram line. So either the road or rail has to go in the air. It is one of only two crossing now where train meets tram.
I spent a lot of time at Kooyang station and have an engineering background.
Bushfire Bill @ #764 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:23 pm
Beats me. He does it to wind up the media and he gets people every single time.
What would life be without our completely useless WOW. It gives us something to post about while we wait.
Mundo, in my cricketing days, we had a guy in the team, let’s call him Pancho. Notorious for turning up late. If we were batting his greeting was g’day lads, how many out? Zat you, Pancho?
Oops I didn’t think my post was that memorable 🙂
Fair dinkum, I have seen so many different angles put into the sausage grinder by our political journalists in order to come out with the killer attack line that will mow Bill Shorten down that I am losing sight of them as they disappear over the hill. Now we have, ‘he was inclined to thrust himself in front of every camera in sight’. Give. Me. A. Break! Says who!?! Just another one of the idiots who call themselves journalists in Australia?
My dog could write better crap than that. And I don’t have a dog!
Settle MM, settle.
G’day
I posted a few days ago from the seat of Cooper about the reduction of Greens corflutes in my area compared to last year’s by election.
Something I’ve noticed compared to then (when Alex Bhatal was against Ged Kearney), is that the corflutes for Greens candidate David Risstrom also have a picture of Greens Senator Janet Rice (who must be a senator up for re election?). Didn’t take much notice of it until I was riding around Brunswick today (seat of Wills) and noticed that the corflutes for Greens candidate Adam Pulford were just of him – no Janet Rice.
I can only surmise that because David is up against a woman in Ged that including a Greens woman on the corflute is trying to neutralise any gender issues or reporting of female complaints in the Greens?
Adam Pulford is against Peter Khalil in Wills so no need for Janet Rice to be on half his corflute.
We’ve had a couple more Green corflutes up in the area so its now 5 houses in my street (compared to 21 at the by election). Having said that, they outnumber the Ged corflutes around 10 to 1 in the surrounding area, but that may be because I’m south of Bell Street.
Also saw an A4 home printed paper sign glued over a Ged poster in Victoria Street Thornbury/Fairfield- it said “SHORTEN IS A ……” (what he was accused of but police didn’t think the evidence to proceed was there). Some on the blog had said this might be brought up.
Side note – if you live in Melbourne, this is a great overlay of aerial photographs of Melbourne on Google maps satellite
http://1945.melbourne/?utm_campaign=&utm_source=17027&utm_medium=Facebook%3A+Victoria+University%2C+Melbourne+Australia&utm_source=Social_Media&utm_medium=Organic&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign
@MM what is the deleted Chris Kenny post?
Scotty really pushing for the ABC to host a debate.
Here is a figure to reflect on.
Currently I’m getting 0.68 Mbps on my 4G internet connection. I’m in an area where there are lots of new houses being built and where NBNco decided that everyone would be perfectly happy to use satellite. So of course, everyone uses 4G. And as more houses pop up, the 4G connection gets slower.. and slower.. and slower…
Fuck you, Turnbull. Fuck you, Liberals.
And again, the notion of a prime time debate only works to secure viewers if it is on the main channel. Monday’s debate is being broadcast on the second Ch7 channel.
Outside left
Were you known in the team as the happy hooker?
My mistake, I misread the trail (Kenny deleted a tweet but I believe it referred to an article already published in The Australian) – see KayJay’s post on page 14.
Also saw an A4 home printed paper sign glued over a Ged poster in Victoria street – it said “SHORTEN IS A ……” (what he was accused of but police didn’t think the evidence to proceed was there).
nath just will not let up! 😆
“But I think a 3rd/4th (I think) straight 52-48 would elicit it too.”
In the sense of the campaign so far not shifting any votes except between the RW contenders, agreed.
Nothing much has changed in the betting markets this week or after the Galaxy poll.Newspoll shouldnt be too different Id have thought.
Should have said this 1/2 and 1/2 overlay compares aerial shots from 1945 against current Google satellite maps for most of Melbourne and suburbs-
http://1945.melbourne/?utm_campaign=&utm_source=17027&utm_medium=Facebook%3A+Victoria+University%2C+Melbourne+Australia&utm_source=Social_Media&utm_medium=Organic&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign
For anyone worried about their NBN connection, this will provide no comfort at all.
AUSTRALIA VOTES
Australia slips three spots to 62nd in global broadband speed rankings
The results highlights the ongoing difficulty Australia faces in providing widespread access to high-speed internet.
46 minutes agoby Fergus Hunter
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/australia-slips-three-spots-to-62nd-in-global-broadband-speed-rankings-20190428-p51hz2.html
Fess
Scottys ABC proposal may explain why the ABC hasn’t put up any info about their program “the Recording Studio” for that week. I have been keeping an eye on the website. Watch out for two girls from Perth.
Are either of the two debates already scheduled in a town hall-type format? Shorten and Labor should insist on one.
This ring?
ALP comeback should be, NPC debate held early evening instead of lunchtime, moderated by NPC / ABC / one other, broadcast on the ABC.
Meanwhile, NPC debates between ministers / shadows on the main issues.
Budget: Bowen vs Josh
Environment: Burke vs Missing Mellisa. 🙂
Roger M:
Liberals demanding leader debates is hypocritical given Abbott doing all he could to dodge them in 2013.
Burgey
The Perth debate has been touted as a “Town Hall”. It will actually be from Channel 7 studios with an audience picked by YouGov.
imacca:
Yes indeed. And Plibersek said this morning she wrote to Dan Tehan requesting a debate on education yonks ago, but has heard nothing. Having seen Dan Tehan front the media I can’t imagine why 😉
Funny (as in “funny/peculiar”) how much faith ScoMo has in Leigh Sales as a debate moderator.
Kinda bells the cat on just which part of the conservative constellation Sales occupies, at least in the minds of the Coalition. She’s one of their own.
Combine this with Abbott’s stated preference for Uhlmann (ex-ABC, now working for Costello at Nine), Mark Simkin moving directly from ABC News to the PM Abbott’s PR team, Greg Jennett’s smarmy “Nothing to see here” meme, and NSW political reporter Brigid Glanville leaving immediately after the recent state election to join the Berejiklian government’s PR team, and there are an awful lot of current or very recent prime time ABC TV news and current affairs faces being “friended” by conservatives at the moment.
It means “Wow! There’s a Newspoll tonight!”
Just got Uhlmann’s tripe in Adelaide. The cheek, the fucking cheek!
1892CFC
Thanks for that Melbourne 1945/Present map link.
I love looking at the ‘old’ train lines such as Outer Circle which I think had just been decommissioned by 1945. Also the VFL grounds.
Took a few minutes to realise you can move and zoom the whole thing and it shows the 1945 version of most of modern metropolitan Melbourne. One small runway at Essendon Airport, and of course farmland at what is now Melbourne Airport. The runways at Point Cook Airbase right on the South West Edge of the 1945 map look to be the most impressive – Airforce Base of course in 1945.
BB
They should get Patricia Karvelas.
Bushfire Bill @ #781 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 7:02 pm
Believe it or not, Glanville was actually appointed Director of Policy and Planning for the NSW Minister for Education, or something similar.
I asked her on twitter, were her qualifications and experience for this role. Apart from attending school that is. Surprisingly, I didn’t get a reply.
sprocket_ @ #718 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 5:37 pm
After we kick the angels off.
And Melissa Clarke. Whatever happened to her?
Rocket
Nah no way the LNP will accept Karvelas. After Joyce to them she will be the new Kerry O BRIEN
1892CFC
thanks for that 1945 Melbourne map. What a treat. At the moment looking over Collingwood and the scar that the Eastern Freeway put on the landscape.
If Scott wants to keep rolling Howard out they are going to have to increase Howard’s medication he looks dreadful… the young would say who is that old idiot, the others would say isn’t the old fool that lost his own seat.
Internal polling must be diabolical if Scott is this desperate
And if Bill Shorten and Labor had said they wanted the 3rd debate to be held at night…the Coalition would have written back saying it needed to be at lunchtime.
They’re just playing silly buggers.
nil all draw
Usually it’s the Opposition leader demanding debates to gain more exposure on an equal footing with the PM.
If Morrison is now demanding another debate, it shows him in a somewhat precarious position without the normal PM level of authority.
And Melissa Clarke. Whatever happened to her?
She’s back on ABC Radio.
citizen @ #771 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
The major parties don’t care about the NBN. Non-issue.
I want to be wrong. I really hope it’s not 51-49 like I predicted, but I guess we’ll see in a few hours :-/
C@tmomma @ #816 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 5:09 pm
Ah that would explain why I never hear from her.
nath
Including changing the course of the Yarra! I have seen this described before – the unnaturally ‘straight’ part south of a golf course in Alphington/Fairfield .
Just noticed they changed the watercourses around where the Merri Creek comes in just above Dights Falls also.
“Rocket Rocket
1892CFC
Thanks for that Melbourne 1945/Present map link.
I love looking at the ‘old’ train lines such as Outer Circle which I think had just been decommissioned by 1945. Also the VFL grounds.
Took a few minutes to realise you can move and zoom the whole thing and it shows the 1945 version of most of modern metropolitan Melbourne. One small runway at Essendon Airport, and of course farmland at what is now Melbourne Airport. The runways at Point Cook Airbase right on the South West Edge of the 1945 map look to be the most impressive – Airforce Base of course in 1945.”
No worries Rocket Rocket – I found there’s so much to look at – including a car ferry/punt travelling between Williamstown Road Port Melb to Douglas Pde Newport across the Yarra, just south of where the Westgate bridge is now. I remember the ferry/punt sinking when I was a Williamstown kid before the Westgate Bridge was finished ( I think after the first attempt at the bridge collapsed?, which I believe is the worst industrial accident in Australia, and supposedly led to the CFMEU Vic branch to become militant on OHS on sites.)