Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.
What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.
Latest horse race calling in the news media:
• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).
• Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.
• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.
Even so each extra seat, each extra vote in the senate, each extra senator, is gold for the nation.
The pearl clutching about Van Badham is hilarious.
WeWantPaul @ #349 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 3:39 pm
Labor would win even more seats if they’d chosen a different leader.
The more I see of Alice the more I realise her then buzzfeed home saved her from a whole mountain of very deserved criticism for her idiotic falling for the con and slut shaming Emma. No big surprise Murdoch would pick her up. Even then her buzzfeed former colleagues complained she was taking heat for going into News Corp at the same time decent honorable quality journos were leaving it.
Labor campaigners in the North are agreed on one thing. The Gs are Labor-hostile thru and thru.
Bill Shorten has just landed in Melbourne
PRIME MINISTER: Clive Palmer is making his own statements on those matters.
If Palmer and Morrison are announcing preference deal on Monday, will it include Palmer saying he will pay workers before the election so that Morrison can claim credit for it?
A few days ago there were media reports Shorten’s campaign would head to Victoria as the “gap was closing” and people were no longer upset at Turnbull’s ouster.
Of course that’s completely at odds with other media reports but what’s new.
ajm @ #352 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 3:47 pm
He’s in Sydney tomorrow, so probably spend the night at home with the fam and then they all hop on a plane in the morning to head to Syders. 🙂
ScoMo sheared (part of) a sheep. (Is he trying for the longest list of ‘sports’ in three weeks?)
pic.twitter.com/tQtPXthSV4
The tax reform advocate on Real Time is just like tax reform advocates here: the only tax ‘reform’ they’re in favour of is reducing income tax rates for the rich.
Morrison is just pretending to be a dinky-di Aussie. He is so full of shit.
Gee it’s a bit rich of people who come here (me included) with a nice, safe nom-de-plume, and accuse a political leader of, what was it, “cowardice and fraud”?
Yep, good old “Hot Rod” Lincoln, “nath” and a few others I can’t be bothered with, really showing courage and wisdom – not. Just so easy to hide behind a fancy, protected badge while making character assessments for people they know, probably, next to nothing about…………….So, what do we call this? “Pot and Kettle”? “Glass Houses and Stones”? or just plain bad-mouthing hypocrisy?
Shorten having a sook because Labor tried and was rejected by Palmer to get his preferences. Shorten getting weaker by the day.
Whatever happened to Morrison’s “if you have a go, you get a go”. Or is it that Clive’s go trumps his workers’.
Sorry if this has been answered earlier but has/can someone explain how Senate primary votes of 30% vs 34% translate to predicted seat wins of 14-17 vs 15? Are Labor usually at a whopping 4% disadvantage to win equal numbers of seats as the Coalition?
Palmer is just a scam artist who doesnt pay his workers.Morrison is just as much a tosser as Palmer.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/no-letup-in-bills-wobbles/news-story/02663606568036189cfe77c167bf5a69
Mr. D. Shanahan has taken over with quoting the vibble, vobbles from that other dude.
Yairs, Bludgers, you won’t see my heels for the dust just as soon as I get one a them coal loader jobs.
♪The working class can kiss ♫ my arse
I’ve ♫ got a bludger’s job ♫ at last.
💋💋💋💋💋
DisplayName @ #362 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
$1 a go…keep ’em coming.
briefly
says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 3:45 pm
Labor campaigners in the North are agreed on one thing. The Gs are Labor-hostile thru and thru
____________________________
Like all elections it will be over before they start counting in Perth. And the north of Perth might as well be the Cocos Islands for all the relevance it has.
steve davis says:
Clive, living the Coalition dream. No wonder they kissed and made up.
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/stopadani-students-say-elections-must-be-referendum-their-futures
https://reneweconomy.com.au/oil-giants-spent-1-billion-on-climate-lobbying-and-ads-since-paris-pact-says-report-98888/
C Fox it’s a matter of how many of the RW Others get elected verses how many of their votes flow through to elect a Coalition Senator.
Ah, election time! It’s like the PB equivalent of Christmas. The usual repetitive slanging matches between cheerleaders of various hues merge into the background, as RW partisans who are otherwise rarely seen in the neighbourhood turn up to do some possum stirring, resulting in sworn foes momentarily finding common cause (well except for a few notable hold outs – no surprises there). And lo and behold, even the late lamented Bemused manifests in altered guise, before injudicious admissions result in his being cast back into the outer darkness. And we still have 3 more weeks of thrills and spills to come. Stock up on popcorn good burghers of Bludgerland.
“I am his highness dog at Kew
Pray tell me Sir, who’s dog are you?”
Alexander Pope.
nath says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 2:18 pm
I don’t hate Bill. I just think he shouldn’t be PM. He wants it soooo bad. Should we reward a mediocre student who plotted his way to be PM? A man who has never done anything apart from scheme and knife and do dodgy deals? All to satisfy his ambition. Nath says no.
——————————
We know only too well your views on the achievements of Bill Shorten.
And I appreciate the fact that you are not the leader of a national political party or someone who is on the cusp of being Prime Minister of this great country.
But in order for us to judge the quality of your assessment of Bill Shorten, it would be instructive if you could list for us the achievements you have made. Tell us what you have done with your life, outside of your contributions on this blog.
Perhaps you could share with us those elements of your character which make you competent to judge Bill Shorten.
max
Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:13 pm
Comment #256
I bought a couple of packs of microwave popcorn to enjoy at the time of the 2013 Federal Election.
Disappointment clouded the household and the popcorn sat lonely as a cloud near the subject microwave until the fateful day (a year later) when I gave them to my favourite daughter for her youngest son.
Imagine, if you will, how I was reviled and castigated for my offer of “past it’s use by date” popcorn.
“And so” as we say chez Kayjay – what is the tradition method of popcorn consumption on election night ❓
Should one, at the sixth stroke of six of the clock – place the popcorn in the microwave and immediately subsequent to Mr. A. Green’s opening remarks – push the button to start the carousel.
Then – over the course of an hour or so munch steadily until a clear result appears and Mr. Green gives a verdict when one could process bag No. 2.
Advice required please. 🔰 (That’s a Japanese symbol for beginner). 😇
Rex Douglas @ #350 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 3:41 pm
The ALP prefers talented and intelligent Leaders instead MP’s like Julie Bishop and Richard Di Natale that prefer to do fashion shoots. Jewells Bishop and the Black Wiggle – same same.
BH @ #354 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 3:49 pm
Yes, that is quite possible. Makes sense. But what about the $70 million the Govt paid out to the workers? I doubt that will be enough.
Why do people feel the need to quote Rex. I really don’t want to see his horseshit.
“Shorten having a sook because Labor tried and was rejected by Palmer to get his preferences. Shorten getting weaker by the day.”
Desperate stuff.
Wow, coal loaders earning more than $250K……………natural Labor voter no doubt! Good luck to him…….Why bother asking Shorten about this? The CL is earning nearly as much as the OL anyway. This guy should be a paid-up Liberal supporter as he is part of the group of what is it? 10% of the population which owns 60% of the wealth here. I suppose he has 5 investment properties, pays $100K a year school fees, has a huge mansion, big boat and the gear to pull it……………..oh yes, your typical Labor supporter! Who gives a toss what he thinks……………….and what I saw of it, the episode was kind of one-on-one. Just how desperate is the Oz newspaper getting? Still, three weeks to go and this outfit knows how to plumb the depths – if past history is anything to go by.
antonbruckner11 @ #379 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
Yet you can’t help but bag me anyway.
I wish people wouldn’t quote Nasty Nath. I don’t want to see his vicious slanders.
nath prefers to see Scott Morrison as prime minister by the looks of it.
nath says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Lincoln
says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 1:27 pm
Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.
I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.
______________________________________
Lincoln I could kiss you. I’ve been arguing the same on here for 7 months or so, often attracting quite nasty abuse from people who enjoy staring at that alien-headed fraud.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Nath, I could just kick you, but instead I’ll slap my forehead in disbelief.
We get it, everyone does, that you don’t like Bill Shorten. Fine. But do you prefer the Libs to him?
If not, what do you suggest the ALP does? Suddenly replace Shorten mid-campaign with Albo or someone else?
Now that would be a fine election-winning move just three weeks before the polls close wouldn’t it?
Tricot @ #381 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
It was a missed opportunity for Bill Shorten to cut through with a bit of honesty and character that I believe would have won support.
calumnious fox,
The coalition is likely to get a swag of preferences from right-wing micro parties that are knocked out early. Labor, on the other hand, won’t get so many preferences because the Greens will be in the hunt for seats so their preferences won’t be distributed. Thus, 30% vs 34% will come to about the same thing after prefs.
Clearly, detractors are looking for a messiah.
That’s fine – but most messiah’s tend to flame out. And then where are you?
beguiledagain – earlier – you a singing a verse of the same song I sang a few posts before. These absolute nobodys (like the rest of us I suppose) come here and pontificate on the character flaws of not just Labor personnel but some from the government, then hide behind a nice safe and secure, anonymous name, and presume to take the high moral ground. They/we luckily can keep our anonymity, poke shit at who they/we like within the bounds of not breaking any libel laws and somehow think this influences anyone else. I have no problem with this but some are just so mind-boring repetitious, smug, and self-satisfied even to the point of self-righteousness. Fortunately, the scroll button obliterates most very quickly.
I should add that a quota is about fourteen and a quarter percent, so in terms of quotas, a four percent gap in votes isn’t very much.
Tricot @ #359 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:01 pm
I like to go with Oxygen Thieves. 🙂
beguiledagain says: Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 4:29 pm
nath
We know only too well your views on the achievements of Bill Shorten.
But in order for us to judge the quality of your assessment of Bill Shorten, it would be instructive if you could list for us the achievements you have made. Tell us what you have done with your life, outside of your contributions on this blog.
Perhaps you could share with us those elements of your character which make you competent to judge Bill Shorten
****************************************************
Yes for me too – I hear your seemingly endless criticism of the lack of qualifications of Bill Shorten, who I believe has a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Laws from Monash University on his working class background
I personally would be proud to have earned such great qualifications if I intended to be a leader of a political party ( – mine are in non-political industrial/nuclear chemistry )
For the record – just so I can determine the veracity and comparison of your continual put downs of Shorten, can you please list your academic qualifications so I can gauge if your criticism has some substance in comparison
Jeez I hope Shorten creams Scrott on Monday.
I hope people who haven’t seen Shorten in action say to themselves Holy shit, that was really something….I hope Scrott comes right off his hinges…
I can dream…
In the ACT Senate race Zed has drawn the prime no.1 position.
He is very unpopular though and a good campaign may unseat him.
See the comments on
https://the-riotact.com/seselja-tops-ballot-paper-for-senate-poll/298703/comment-page-1#comments
jenauthor @ #388 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:44 pm
Don’t need a messiah, just a leader would be fine.
lizzie @ #267 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 4:37 pm
Never mind – a well wisher could visit, bringing genuine “aged in the pack” cup cakes and force you, out of politeness, to listen to her read from the following.
So bear up – while you quietly recite to yourself
You know, and know full, that this too shall pass ❗ 😎