Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.
What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.
Latest horse race calling in the news media:
• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).
• Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.
• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.
Is there someone or some place this election which sets out where the two leaders are campaigning each day?
Peter Hatcher has has suddenly started writing quite well. If only more Australian journalist started sounding like Robert Reich.
ruawake
Hello again – thanks for the positive vibe. Three weeks left of Morrison’s non-government
Sprocket,
Regarding the Bass seat poll, it’s just betting odds with L/NP edging ahead and trailing every where else. So, meh.
Silly question, I suppose, but when will the IPA be registered as an Associated Entity for the Coalition⁉️
sprocket_ @ #87 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:07 am
From what I read it was just the usual bookie scuttlebutt.
‘THE Coalition has edged ahead of Labor as the bookies’ favourite in the seat of Bass but trails the Opposition in the betting markets for the other two Tasmanian seats considered to be in play.’
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏⅏
lizzie @ #81 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:00 am
I now resurrect a failed post of a couple of days ago.
I considered the fact that governments around the world are clinging to ideas and policies that are demonstrable destructive. Why have these blots, blights and blotches on society not been snuffed, snaffled or snafued systematically by future time travellers bent on revenge ❓
Some research revealed the information appended *.
I, me, myself, personally believe that there are no humans left in the future and also that the current crop of anti science anti climate change know this full well and are working their evil way as a best of bad choices —
To wit – work with science and work to limit global warming/climate change – which will enable time travel to eventuate and face exterminators sent back to wreak backwards vengeance on BK’s assorted Arseholes of the Week.
Or —
Continue with their destructive ideology and so enable the dying out of the planet. Evidence for this will be the further development of space travel Ozzie Style (no oi, oi’s please) to enable sending their money to a green planet which has Barnard’s Star circling it.
Once the money is safe naturally all will be well and business will resume as usual.
Rereading the above, I detect a couple of flaws although generally speaking the treatise is vastly better than good enough for Guvmint work.
*
https://www.quora.com/Why-are-people-from-the-future-not-time-traveling-to-our-period-assuming-time-travel-technology-is-available-in-the-future
Why are people from the future not time traveling to our period, assuming time travel technology is available in the future?
P.S. My favourite mower self destructed yesterday. 😢
I left it near my front gate but unfortunately the locals are so hones that it is still there this morning. 😢
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/plants-are-dying-businesses-are-hurting-but-barnaby-joyce-still-the-favourite-in-new-england-20190426-p51hez.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1556316185
lizzie says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 9:10 am
He’s basically saying the Labor policy is the starting point for negotiations and that any changes will be to that policy.
It’s basically saying if you come to the table and say, “I want something different,” then the response would be gagf, but if you come with ideas to amend the policy then that is something that can be talked about. 🙂
I hav
Grime @ #106 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:29 am
I’ve read it. It’s just betting scuttlebutt. Dreck.
Question @ #102 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:26 am
Hartcher is queuing up for the “A”-grade drip when Labor gets into office. Thanks for showing us the way ahead when times were dark Pete.
Regarding Palmer’s ad blaze: I don’t know about other states but in Queensland, they’ve been ubiquitous, and they’re quite clever in that they are short, sharp, critical of the majors, and have fair dinkum looking and sounding actors/satellites of Palmer in them. Further, they were running far before the election was announced, unchallenged by the Tories, Labor.
Now that the election campaign is in full swing, Labor, no doubt, will remind electors, especially Queenslanders, what a loathsome person Palmer is. Do they not remember the way he treated QN workers, leaving shortly thereafter on a cruise? Yes, he’s promised to pay worker entitlements, but from my understanding, not until after the election.
By doing a preference deal with Palmer, Morrison’s playing with fire, most likely ending up like Barnett’s deal with PHON in 2017 – a swing of 12.6 percent and the loss 20 seats.
Labor ads should home in on Palmer as being a person of ill-repute, who uses his personal fortune to buy political power in order to further his business interests. Moreover, Morrison should be portrayed as someone who supports such a rogue.
It’s good to see that Labor has taken the high road, though in the event that it hadn’t, partisan politics would’ve have resulted in me calling it a pragmatic stance by Labor – the imperative being to get rid of this mob once and for all, a motley crew who’ve caused so much damage to the Australian polity.
I did see something on twitter about Sky saying Liberal internal polling shows them ahead 53/47 in Bass. Don’t know the veracity of that though.
Voting Lib-kin is not a proxy for voting Labor. There is one way to help Labor in the Senate and that is to vote Labor.
Ladbrokes-Bass
Libs$1.80
Lab$1.90
Tom @ #107 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:30 am
Federal Election 2019: Liberal Party’s blue-ribbon seat of Curtin ‘hanging by thread’, according to new poll
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-liberal-partys-blue-ribbon-seat-of-curtin-hanging-by-thread-according-to-new-poll-ng-b881176459z
As a BTL voter I numbered 349 boxes in the NSW LC ballot paper so its a huge relief there’s only 105 NSW Senate candidates 🙂
Everywhere you look, the wheels seem to be coming off the Government’s non EV truck.
1. Libs are apparently bouyed that Henderson is only 3% behind according to internal polling in Corangamite.
2. The National Candidate in page, Kevin Hogan is giving non assurances that hew will not sit on the cross benches.
3. Morrison is visiting Dubbo a traditonal strong hold for the Nats
4. The previous Liberal candidate for Herbert has condemned the preference arrangement with UAP.
It’s only 9:45am.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-way-in-the-world-former-liberal-mp-slams-preference-deal-with-clive-palmer-20190426-p51hkq.html
You gotta love Paul. He’s still got it!
Re Barnaby McCormack will not campaign for him…. probably hopes he loses
What happens when another part of Fox turns against Trump
Fox News’ Andrew Napolitano Says Trump Repeatedly Committed Obstruction of Justice
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1121552006785716224
[‘The rugby player preaches to his church about the dangers of the ‘man-made’ traditions of Christmas and Easter, the practice of Catholic baptism with water and the worshiping of the Virgin Mary.’]
I reckon Israel makes a better rugger player than he does as a preacher:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/rugby-australia-treading-on-dangerous-ground-if-they-sack-israel-folau-20190426-p51hj9.html
mick Quinlivan @ #122 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:52 am
“He needs to be in marginal seats – that’s not me being egotistical, but you’ve got places like Cowper that is a fifty-fifty seat,” Mr Joyce said.
“I know how to campaign, that’s why I’m happy for Michael to be somewhere else.
https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6091856/deputy-prime-minister-abandons-barnaby-joyce-visit/?cs=14360
I was taught all those things growing up, except the baptism bit, we were always taught the Catholics failure to use, you know a whole bath of water, if a full sea or river wasn’t available, was just lazy, disrespectful Christianity.
Does anyone know, have some pente churches done away with baptism by immersion for the happy clappy experience stuff? Technically I guess I’m asking is there an argument that out of pentecost we don’t need to bother with that whole baptism thingy?
#ReligiousAsidesontheSabbath
I hope Bill doesn’t think giving 50bn bucks to MONA is going to save Braddon or Bass…
despite it being one of the state’s greatest tourist asserts most regular punters think it’s a freakfest for elites….I’m glad he’s not offering to build them another football stadium though….
If an Australian rugby player, who was an atheist, repeatedly sent homophobic tweets despite counselling and warnings from their employer, what would be their sanction?
‘I’ve read it. It’s just betting scuttlebutt. Dreck.’
Jeez I wish you people would make up your minds.
Follow the money, don’t follow the money.
Which is it?
I reckon Israel is one of those wowsers my dad used to talk about.
mundo says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 10:13 am
Maybe you could poll your cows for confirmation? 🙂
ruawake
WELCOME BACK RUA !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZzEzDkeHzI
How about this for an idea as soon as a Federal election is call and all MP’s and Senators return to their electorates etc, that all tax payer funding stops, instead of the current farcical situation that this only happens after the party’s have their official launch. Which appears to be delayed as long as possible to keep snouts in troughs. State and Territory to follow suit. now for the howls back to my meds, stay alert everyone we need more lerts.
Well, I’m going out with a prediction as I don’t think much will shift in the next three weeks (barring act of God/9-11/Tampa):
ALP: 78
Coalition: 67
X Bench: 6 (Cowper, Mayo, Indi, Kennedy, Clark, Melbourne)
Some key seats: Downfall for Adolf Kipfler in Deakin. Banks to just miss out in Flinders. Steggles ditto just short in Warringah. Oakeshott to pick up Cowper. Wentworth comes back to the Tory fold.
Another quick thought: Is Tony Windsor playing a long game by not running now? If the Beetrorter is odds on to be forced out sometime in the next three years perhaps he reckons he has a better chance of winning New England in a by-election against a newbie Nat with a tainted brand.
I have been wondering the same thing myself, esp given his social media commentary. It’s like he’s keeping himself in the game.
“Can anyone nominate a state that won’t go 3-3 on the left-right split?”
It was reported in the Guardian that its possible for Labor to win three senate seats in Victoria and Tasmania and the Greens still hold one senate seat in each state.
South Australia where it’s possible for Labor to win three senate seats but it would likely be at the expense of Greens Sarah Hanson-young.
The other states will be Labor 2 and Greens 1. Larissa Waters should get home on Labor preferences from what remains after their two quotas but it’s possible she could miss out on a senate seat to ON, LNP, or UAP but I think it’s less likely considering the likely swing towards Labor in Queensland.
Hi BK. No, it wasn’t me talking about Gary Sobers playing shield cricket in SA. I was born in 1961, so I was a bit too young. I do remember the first time I went to a cricket match at Adelaide Oval was in 1968, when my dad took me to see the West Indies play South Australia, specifically to see Sobers. I think we got in for free on the last day to see SA score the winning runs!!
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/04/27/keelty-warns-river-ripe-corruption/15562872008055
I think Windsor can’t resist commenting on the politics, but may feel that’s the only/best contribution he can make. Health?
Finally got into the Hobart Mercury article.
The gist of it follows:
In Bass, Sportsbet now has the Coalition at $1.81 to win the seat, narrowly ahead of Labor on $1.90.
Labor MP Ross Hart is fighting to become the first sitting member of any party to retain Bass in 18 years.
But Labor remains the $1.55 favourite to retain the marginal seat of Braddon in the North West, ahead of the Coalition at $2.20.
In Lyons, the other Tasmanian seat targeted by the Liberals, Labor’s Brian Mitchell remains an even shorter price favourite, at $1.20, with the Coalition at $4.
No mention of Boothby in any of the above. It feels close here, but I am quietly confident of a Labor gain. If we don’t win it, it won’t be because our candidate has left anything in the tank, I can assure everyone of that.
Confessions @ #163 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 10:35 am
Some Tamworth-based friends if mine recon that it’s something nasty (as in mutually assured destruction nasty) The Tamworth Cow Mafia have on Windsor. The TCM play for keeps, and The Beetrooter is still their boy, egregious fuckups and all.
Outsider
I was fortunate enough to see all of Sobers’ time playing for Prospect. My father and a friend got him to SA so I got to know him quite well. When he returned to play World Series in Adelaide we looked after his little child one day and he and his then wife came up for dinner.
He was an amazing cricketer – as was Barry Richards who also came over to play for Prospect.
Matt31 @ #141 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 10:45 am
Is the Watergate issue playing very strongly in Boothby?
I just don’t buy this ‘sudden increase’ in Palmer support so conveniently timed for preference hustling, on the back of a few seat polls. For a start his ads have been annoying us all for months, before any of the the parties ad machines had swung into gear, and PHON have been imploding since forever.
FWIW now the campaign is in full swing, Tanya Plibersek has replaced his ugly mug on the billboard on Glebe Pt Rd(WTF? how many Palmer voters are there a stone’s throw from Sydney Uni?). I think, effectively he’s pissing money against the wall to troll his creditors. And with the assistance of the Oz he’s royally suckered Morrison
rhwombat:
If that’s the case then it would have to be something truly vile and possibly implicating his family, because Windsor never struck me as someone who gave much of a toss what others thought of him. Nor that he is the kind of bloke who’d run from veiled threats from enemies.
There is very little money in the election pool betting so l wouldn’t read to much into the odds on offer.
Just back from a save the Bribie pelicans protest. We packed the bridge from end to end.
KayJay (Block)
Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:40 am
Many thanks KayJay!
Strong performance by Shorten & Albanese at a presser in Tassie, homing in on Morrison’s promises to Palmer, Hanson in return for their preferences, asking what deals have been done, suggesting that Palmer’s debt to the Cth may be waived, that our gun laws will be watered down, that a Morrison/Palmer/Hanson government would be a disaster, chaotic. I still think, however, that more should’ve been done to counter Palmer’s ad blitz.