Still no new polls, so let’s take a look at some old ones instead. After the 2016 election, I wrote an article for Crikey on the performance of the pollsters, particularly in regard to seat polls, and published here a chart showing the distribution of their errors. After being asked if the findings bore up over the seat polling conducted since, I have now conducted a similar exercise on seat polls conducted since the 2016 federal election, of which I identified 25 conducted in the final fortnight of various state elections and federal by-elections. However, rather than use the two-party results, which have separate issues of their own, I have produced separate results from Labor and Coalition primary votes. These can be found at the bottom of the post.
In the 2016 analysis, I concluded that the polls behaved more like they had a 7% margin of error than the 4% margin theoretically associated with polls sampling 500 to 600 respondents, as is typically the case with seat polls. It turns out that this chimes quite well with the polls conducted since. The mean error for the Coalition was +1.9%, which is to say the average poll had the Coalition that much too high high, while for Labor it was -0.5%. The difference is just inside statistical significance (the p-value on a two-sample t-test coming in at 0.047).
However, this does not mean you can confidently treat any given seat poll as biased to the Coalition, because their record is so erratic that any given poll could fall either way. The charts below record the spread of pollster errors (i.e. their result for a given party’s primary vote minus the actual result) as histograms, with two distribution curves laid over them – a thinner one in black, showing what the curve should theoretically look like with a 4% margin of error, and a thicker one in blue, showing their actual distribution. The lower and flatter the blue curve, the more erratic and unreliable were the results. As such, the charts show seat polls have been particularly wayward in predicting the Coalition primary vote. They have been somewhat nearer the mark with Labor, but still below theoretical expectations. The distributions suggest an effective margin of error for Labor of 6.5%, and for the Coalition of fully 9.5%.
It should be acknowledged, however, that a lot can happen over the last fortnight of an election campaign, and pollsters can always defend an apparent misfire by asserting that the situation changed after the poll was conducted. Perhaps significantly, the two worst performing polls in this analysis only barely fit within the two-week time frame. These were YouGov Galaxy polls from the Victorian “sandbelt” seats of Mordialloc and Frankston at the state election in November last year, crediting Labor with two-party votes of 52% and 51% in seats where the final results were 62.9% and 59.7%. If these cases are removed, the mean Coalition error comes down to +1.1% and the effective margin of error to 8.4%; while for Labor, the mean becames +0.1% and the margin of error 5.3%.
ARGHHH….give me poll results or make me comatose!!
My little contribution to the cause. Apols for not acknowledging the contributor who posted the comment but it was just too good not to use.
For those that don’t know JT Thurston is a God in Townsville, and North Queensland and any town north of the Tweed.
The debates should be a fixed part of the election campaign, covered by the ABC, with the feed available to all networks, and with moderators and panels nominated by the National Press Club. No negotiations to be entered into, this is it.
Every election we get this bullshit of, I want more, I want less, depending on where the Parties see themselves in the contest.
🙂
The guy with the medals alongside Anning is doing a disservice to the ADF – past, and present:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/photographer-hurt-in-scuffle-at-fraser-anning-press-conference-20190426-p51hig.html
Simon² Katich® @ #335 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:11 pm
I believe she was probably trying to get a photo of the abuser. Earlier video shows the photographer and reporter nowhere near each other. The abuser was dissing the reporter while she was asking Anning questions and afterwards. She works for the little local paper. The photographer is from The Australian head office. The Telegraph had a reporter there too.
I am sure you are right, though. You always are, aren’t you?
jeffemu @ #348 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:44 pm
Love it
“The reporter was the tall one in black. The shorter lady with the bag was with the attacker and was supporting him There is a longer Ch 9 video..”
—————–
that video begins with both the cameraman and reporter clearly pursuing (chasing?) the kid, who was walking away. I can only assume that the alleged assault and stalking happened before that, and they both wanted to get pictures of him because of that?
Palmer has confirmed Labor approached him about a preference deal. Billy you are a disgrace, as you will sell out to anyone for a few votes.
michael @ #354 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
The only disgrace is believing Palmer on anything.
Who would have thought that the fox news law contributor Napilitano would be saying this..
Claude Taylor Retweeted
WTF
@neveragainFL
Wow.. well stated, haven’t been a fan but have to say he said what NEEDED TO BE SAID.
Thank you !
Quote Tweet
Claude Taylor
@TrueFactsStated
· 4h
Listen to Fox’s very own Andrew Napolitano opine on Trump and obstruction of justice….
1:42
1:06 PM · Apr 26, 2019 · Twitter for Android
54
Retweets
This link should work
https://mobile.twitter.com/neveragainFL/status/1121611590112088064
Another “quality” Fraser Anning candidate emerges!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6088977/fraser-annings-candidates-criminal-history-revealed/?cs=14329
Knowing Clive Palmer – saying “hello Clive” at a social function constitutes trying to get his preferences.
Victoria @ #356 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 12:55 pm
Saying what?
EDIT: Just loaded more comments and saw there was a link to what he said.
Carry on. As you were.
Pepsi is as evil as Monsanto:
Living things should not be eligible for copyright/tradmark protections.
Mavis Davis @ #350 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:48 pm
If I am reading the article correctly he is the local candidate. And quite a story behind him if you read through it.
“Counter-terrorism operation underway in North Melbourne
Posted 12 minutes ago
Men in helmets with large guns stand on a residential street.
A Victoria Police spokesperson said there is “no current or impending threat to the community”.
ABC news on-line
Then why are “Men in helmets with large guns ” there then if not for a publicity stunt??
I make a prediction that one of those pesky Muslim, child throwing, carrying boats will magically appear also before this election is over….you know the ones that don’t exist anymore.
I do mourn for a real election campaign one day. The last one i can remember was when Hawke came to power – alas so long ago now 🙁
michael says:
Friday, April 26, 2019 at 2:52 pm
Palmer has confirmed Labor approached him about a preference deal. Billy you are a disgrace, as you will sell out to anyone for a few votes.
A little bit of fake news isn’t going to bury what has happened. The ad-man and con-man now own each other.
michael says:
Friday, April 26, 2019 at 2:52 pm
Palmer has confirmed Labor approached him about a preference deal. Billy you are a disgrace, as you will sell out to anyone for a few votes.
A little bit of fake news isn’t going to bury what has happened. The ad-man and con-man now own each other.
Dan Gulberry @ #360 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
https://twitter.com/i/status/1121597475704332288
Nah. But I reckon this song is about me.
Addition to my earlier post………”It is not clear what sparked the operation. More to come.”
He he he he. Internal polling perhaps?
Sorry, next post to be of a more intellectual nature, just couldn’t help myself 🙂
GG
Thanks. I did manage to link it in next post. But as it is amazing coming from a fox news contributor, worth posting again!
michael @ #354 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
Palmer has confirmed that he will pay, soon, the workers that he has owed $7million for 3 years. He has promised that over twenty times. He is a facile liar. You believe him, though.
michael @ #354 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
Well, you better not vote for the LNP or the Liberal Party then, because they are the ones who have actually done a preference deal with Clive Palmer. 😐
Just wondering what others think. Bill and Morrison have not been back in NSW which is my domain since the first couple of campaign days.
Does that lead us to think the Libs have given up on Reid and Gilmore and ALP feels comfortable enough with Lindsay?
Palmer is trying to be Australia’s Trump. Of course he’s lying!
John of Belrose @ #371 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 3:22 pm
Good questions. However, Bill is back in NSW on Sunday. 🙂
yabba says:
Friday, April 26, 2019 at 2:06 pm
Peter Stanton @ #318 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
—————
Thanks for that I could not recall the details.
Finding out what someone wants and doing a deal are two very different things.
The Greens often say what they want and as a result are excluded from any subsequent deal. 🙂
Jeff
Easy to be cynical, but counter terrorism operations are not conducted 0n a whim
“Palmer has confirmed Labor approached him about a preference deal. Billy you are a disgrace, as you will sell out to anyone for a few votes.”…
Which means that you are voting for the LNP?
Or you are voting for the Greens and put the ALP last?
What are you going to do?
‘Unlawful and condemnable’: Fox News legal analyst says obstruction case against Trump is overwhelming
‘
Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano published a column Thursday in which he outlined the case that President Donald Trump repeatedly tried to unlawfully obstruct special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
In his editorial, Napolitano argued that Attorney General Bill Barr was wrong to clear Trump of obstruction charges, as it’s very clear from Mueller’s report that the special counsel believes that the president obstructed justice.
The Fox News legal analyst concludes that Democrats would be well within their rights to start up impeachment hearings based on the Mueller report, though he hedges about whether they would successfully get enough Republicans on board to ever convict the president.
Still, he argues, this does not excuse Trump’s behavior as outlined in the Mueller report.
“Ordering obstruction to save himself from the consequences of his own behavior is unlawful, defenseless and condemnable,” he writes.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/unlawful-condemnable-fox-news-legal-analyst-says-obstruction-case-trump-overwhelming/
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/judge-andrew-napolitano-did-president-trump-obstruct-justice
michael says:
Friday, April 26, 2019 at 2:52 pm
Palmer has confirmed Labor approached him about a preference deal. Billy you are a disgrace, as you will sell out to anyone for a few votes.
—————————-
It must be true Palmer would never tell a lie.
Flynn candidate Kevin O’Dowd receives the hug of death!
Victoria @ #368 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 3:19 pm
All good!
GG,
By the look on his face he knows it, too.
GG – Yeah, his expression says: ‘You just killed me, you son-of-a-bitch.’
@Michael is there any link to your statement Clive Palmer confirmed Labor approached him? I can’t find it.
What do either of the majors gain from doing any kind of deal with Palmer?
Unless Palmer is promising to pay a bunch of people to hand out HTVs at a large number of polling stations, his agreement on preferences is mostly meaningless, surely?
Can someone help here with a clarification?
Again because of the lack of quality reporting (and explaining from Labor), my understanding of the changes to negative gearing on rentals is that you can still utilise expenses to get the net profit from a rental to $0, however you can’t claim a loss (additional expense) beyond this to write down off your taxable income from a day job?
Also does anybody know if there are measures to enforce this in the case of individuals who have set up as a private company or as part of a family trust?
I ask this as i have had a few people ask me (god knows why, i don’t own any rentals :)) concerned that they would not be able to claim expenses such as interest on the loan, thus having a “huge” income and associated tax bill….
cheers if anyone knows the answers…….
It’s been noted that no senior Ministers are accompanying Morrison or making Policy announcements in this Liberal campaign. Speculation is that Morrison is running a one man band. However, “Scotty’s team ” may have just decided to keep quiet, focus on their seat and allow Morrison to take the fall for the impending loss.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/apr/26/australia-federal-election-2019-coalition-labor-morrison-shorten-clive-palmer-greens-politics-live
As above the Palmer/Labor pref shite is from the Oz which I don’t go to.
Palmer might have met someone once, who said they voted Labor, and who asked Palmer which party he was going to give preferences to…… Or something like that. “Labor approached me” could mean anything.
Izzy @ #384 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 3:42 pm
It’s been confirmed that a couple of Union officials spoke/met with Palmer last week. While some may have been ALP Members, they had no authority to make any deals.
I suppose the matter that piqued their interest would have been Palmer’s offer to repay workers the $300 mill outstanding.
Informal chats and discussions like this happen every day of the week.
It certainly does not legitimise Michael A’s stupidly over the to remarks.
Jeff
There are no changes to existing arrangements.
If policy implemented, changes are that only new properties can be negatively geared
Victoria
Really? history tells a different story i’m afraid. Counter Terrorism, Armed Forces, Police, even the Judicial System have all been used before to strike fear into people prior to an election.
What you have forgotten the “child overboard” Liberal scare campaign already, or the AFP raids at the last election? – short memory…..
An ABC reporter tweets out the content of a Coalition media release, with no header or footer saying it was a coalition media release, to attack Bill Shorten on debates. The ABC director of news then retweets it.
I know you see bias where you want to, but I honestly can’t recall anything so blatant as what the ALP is facing right now.
It was pretty similar last time with Turnbull, except then you had Cormann popping up all the time doing T.V. interviews.