First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.
With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.
• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.
• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.
• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.
• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.
• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.
It could be because at the previous election a Liberal ran and someone noticed today that there isn’t one running this time. 🙂 And on that, I wonder why a National candidate is running instead of a Liberal candidate.
So we have quartley inflation of 0% https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/inflation-rate-of-zero-not-as-good-as-it-sounds/11043100
I wonder what the prospects of the RBA cutting interest rates next month are?
I’m really surprised that [Clive Palmer] could find so many candidates.
Stand outside the Matt Talbot Hostel handing out tenners and you’ll get knocked over in the rush to sign up.
Please bring back Kerry O’Brien
The Vote Tony Out mob are apparently holding a public rally on May 5 in Manly.
Nicholas, do you think the Good Friday Agreement should be considered in working out how the UK leaves the EU?
Whitlam covers a bit of country
Shell bell: “Whenever will the Victorian Socialists, Socialists Equality Party and Socialist Alliance sought out their differences?”
I believe the three of them have a booked a disused telephone box (booth) and they’ll sort it out on Sunday
I just saw the Getup ad courtesy of Channel 9, not as offensive as the abuse he co ordinated against Gillard.
This guy on the Tasmanian Senate list is assured of at least 5%..
Tasmania M 1. INFORMAL, Alfred Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
Bushfire Bill says Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 7:21 pm
Given it’s Clive you would want the cash up front.
James Brayshaw and Hamish. 1.30 in and have had enough.
imacca says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 4:19 pm
“Just read a story in Crikey about a volunteer in Bennelong who only joined the ALP 3 months ago because they are the only party of government that takes science seriously. ”
First time I handed out how to vote cards for Labor I had antivaxers to the left of me and antivaxer to the right. In my view the Bennelong volunteer got it 100% right.
BSA Bob @ #608 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
The timing of the ad was incredibly insensitive, and it even got the RSLS publicly condemning it. There are plenty of ways to highlight Abbott’s AGW intransigence, and callous indifference to people in need in the community. And at the end of the day just free martyr press for Abbott when he should be under fire for his failures to represent his electorate.
The inflation figures today are terrible. Even Nine news called them “bad”. They remind us that, under Treasurer come Head Good Bloke ScumMo, the economy is not growing, and people are scared. They also remind us that the economic “forecasts” the budget was based on are pure fiction. There will be no surplus. We will be lucky of there is not a recession.
We have had six years of economic gloom under Abbott, Turnbull and ScumMo. Not even five minutes of economic sunshine since Gillard left office.
The showed the getup ad on the drum. Made the point well I thought. Withdrawing it has given it a lot of free air time, that is for sure.
Confessions
Have you seen it?
Agree Fess.
And it’s pretty much all their own doing, they had opportunities to continue the platform left to them by the previous govt, but chose to unravel it all. The same thing is happening in the US.
Same question David;
Have you seen it?
frednk:
I have.
Yes I have seen it and while it made the point well the method used was insensitive and pretty ordinary.
Confession
Fair enough;I came away with a different view.
I may not have expressed it well but I think Dastyari meant that Morrison has had none of the problems of being a real PM since the campaign started. He’s been able roam the country doing stunts and flatly deny any problems with the LNP (e.g. Watergate) and the MSM give him a free pass.
Dastyari is saying that despite this, Morrison is still headed for defeat.
So by ABC narrative Shorten is stumbling every time he opens his mouth
And Ad Man from Mad Men is having a beer in every pub – increasing his popularity
And the “race” has tightened on the ground with Coalition support surging
So too tight to call
The ABC narrative
Reminds me of watching the last quarter of Hawthorn v Geelong, Geelong 6 goals in front but don’t switch off because Hawthorn are surging
“Don’t turn off”
Confessions, David
Fair enough.
I think there may be a little Girl in Sweden that may not share your view. On one hand, bad timing in relation to two people that lost their lives trying to save others; on the other, civilization as we know it.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-met-with-applause-in-house-of-commons-video
My first campaign, a local journo told me that everyone knew I couldn’t win, but they were going to report it as if I had a chance, because otherwise it would be too boring.
Confessions
“And it’s pretty much all their own doing, they had opportunities to continue the platform left to them by the previous govt, but chose to unravel it all. The same thing is happening in the US.”
Yes. In fact the US is doing better than Oz now, even with Trump running the show.
I know Labor has half the media against them, but if they cannot articulate to people quickly and simply why the current government are hopeless economic managers, then they should give the game away.
I thought Kerry’s analysis on Drum of how only 5 seats required by Labor was great.. implying a Bill slide!
frednk:
As I said there are plenty of other ways to highlight Abbott’s AGW intransigence than portraying him as a lifeguard ignoring a drowning person. I’m thankful GetUp didn’t show an advert of firefighter Abbott standing watching someone burn alive in a bushfire using the same messages about the science not being settled and why act now. Or maybe that was the second tranche of proposed advertising, now thankfully pulled.
Observer, I think that you are referring partly to Tingle’s ‘analysis’ on 7.30.
I find it strange that Morrison is apparently given kudos for continually lying and refusing to answer questions.
Perhaps Shorten should try it.
But of course he’d still be in the wrong.
Soc:
US economic commentators I’ve read put the US economy down to Obama-era initiatives, even despite Trump. However with Trump dismantling his administration’s legislation, together with his unnecessary trade wars, not many of them see good things to come.
I think Tony Abbott has probably been the most toxic force in Australian politics in the last decade or so.
That said, as a former surf life saver, when I saw that ad last night I thought it was in very poor taste. They probably did it deliberately, knowing that the controversy and withdrawal of the ad would get more publicity than they otherwise would have.
As I said, I abhor Abbott’s politics, but I think that with his history of serving as a volunteer firefighter for many years the implication that he would sit by while someone drowned was really bad taste.
James Brayshaw and Hamish. 1.30 in and have had enough.
Taylormade
The mere mention of Brayshaw’s name and I’ve had enough!
LNP got a good draw on senate ballots;
LNP got column A in Vic Senate
LNP and Green ahead of ALP everywhere except NT
LNP ahead of Green everywhere except Tas, NT
Confession
The science has not been settled as the planet goes down the gurgler.
The science has not been settled as someone drowns.
I think they are both offensive; in the first case the offense is to me and my children. I’m sorry but I am more offended.
Monetary policy is a steering wheel that isn’t connected to anything. The central bank should simply set the overnight interbank lending rate at zero and leave it there. The central bank’s focus should be on running the payments system and enforcing strong underwriting standards. It does not have the capacity to make a positive difference to employment and price stability. That is the job of fiscal policy.
frednk that young lady did much for CC but if those ads had have run the opposite would have been the result. I’m happy to echo Rocket’s well delivered thoughts above.
davidwh
Fair enough, but I think you should be more offended by Abbotts’ refusal to accept he science of climate change; that is going to effect your children directly.
frednk
They should have done the ad actually on climate change – the ‘metaphor’ of drowning is probably too subtle for many voters, who would just see it as an insult to Abbott.
Maybe this will be seen as the turning point in Zali Steggall’s failed bid to win Warringah.
I don’t think she is very happy with GetUp! today.
“The inflation figures today are terrible.”…
They are even more terrible if you see the inflation rate from the perspective of non-essential items (going down sharply) compared with essential items (going up). With wages stagnating or going down, the people are trapped between low income and high costs of essential living. That’s an explosive combination!!…. But hey, they can always cheer themselves up thinking that a Mercedes Benz is more affordable now….. >:(
RR
I think I would be waiting 3.5 weeks before declaring any bid failed.
Still trying to promote this song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-wMbFntrTo
if anyone is interested
frednk:
You’re one of the converted GetUp is preaching to in Warringah with that advert. But in order to tip Abbott out, which is what GetUp are supposed to be working towards, they need to bring Liberal voters with them and change their vote. Impugning volunteer surf lifesavers and trashing Abbott’s record of volunteerism is not the way to do that.
They’d do well to watch how Zali Steggall and Vote Tony Out do it. Appealing to rational commonsense views, including the economic realities of AGW and the necessity to switch to renewables, while simultaneously painting Abbott as stuck in the past, held victim to his many (many!) previous viewpoints on AGW would hold more sway with Liberal voters than that GetUp ad in my opinion.
James Jeffrey was at Albo’s launch. Seems a nice bloke.
I reckon too. All they’ve done is given Abbott a martyrdom leg up in the media.
Bushfire Bill says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 7:21 pm
I’m really surprised that [Clive Palmer] could find so many candidates.
Stand outside the Matt Talbot Hostel handing out tenners and you’ll get knocked over in the rush to sign up.
___________________________________________
I remember the father of a school friend who bought up a heap of furniture from an old hotel in the Sydney CBD that he wanted for a motel business he was establishing south of Kiama.
Needing to put all the chairs etc into a waiting truck he walked over to the pub opposite and promised to shout a few beers for anyone who would help move the stuff into the truck. As I remember the ‘volenteers’ would have done the Matthew Talbot proud but we got the job done.
Reckon Clive could shout a bar or two if he gets desperate.
bug1 @ #634 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:16 pm
Yeah, but the Senate was always going to be a mess anyways.
How has Labor done on the House ballots?
Unfortunately Abbott continues to shorten on Sportsbet. Now down to 2/1 on. Steggall our to $2.30.
Now Get Up has lost momentum due to the ad mess up.
Just to clarify meaning.
Confesions @ 7.40
As a stand alone piece I think the ad would have plenty of company in the crassness stakes. I gather it’s actually been shown? That’s poor form I agree. It’s also bad luck which Abbott & his ilk will be happy to profit from.