The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
The WH must be breathing a sigh of relief that Capt Carnival Barker has woken in a good mood.
Cud:
Maybe. I see it mostly as pot stirring.
If only Labor actually had enough guts and honesty to be better than the LNP in so many ways
Too gutless to raise a Federal ICAC or unravel the corporate interests and donations that clearly corrupt political decisions in Australia
Greens worked with Labor to bring in the best climate carbon pollution policy in Australia and then Labor tore itself to shreds
Another way that Labor and LNP appear same same, tearing themselves apart over political power rather than actually addressing pressing problems community raise with them
jenauthor
Correct
Government is process AND progress
Progressive is progressive – and in Australia electable noting also the history of election results which confirm Australians as conservative at the core – so the progressive agenda needs to be carefully calibrated and respectfully put
Radical is radical – and, in Australia, unelectable
A radical government has never been elected to government in Australia – and never will be
Hence the Conservatives attempts to link Labor to the Green (very few) parliamentarians
Re same/same. There was a particularly dull interview on 7.30 tonight with people in Paramatta. The main character was a young bloke who seemed pretty clueless but he was certain that the major parties were both bad/hopeless etc. Interviewers need to get a bit smarter and ask people to explain an issue they are interested in and why etc rather than allow people to just talk nonsense. Or at least edit it down. The right wing vested interests have a major interest in turning people off politics as that makes manipulation easier. ABC especially should avoid this.
Where are these polls we were promised. lol
jenauthor and Patrick B
I am catching up on PB, and so late to the debate. However, I will discuss this comment before reading further.
There is a strong asymmetry between what appeals to conservative voters c.f. what appeals to progressive voters. Conservative voters respond more strongly to fear, and have less interest in facts / science. I was searching for a New Scientist article on this from a few years ago when I came across some new research, commented on below.
But before I get to that, voters who vote on facts / science are already voting for either Labor or the Greens, and likely swapping preferences. Unfortunately, the 2 – 3% of voters we need to switch from Coalition to Labor are not part of that demographic.
They need to feel that Labor will move slowly and carefully on addressing issues such as climate change and Newstart, without causing frightening disruption and pushing them out of their comfort zone.
If Labor wins a Federal election, then there is hope that their “Comfort zone” can be pushed towards more scientifically defensible and humane policies. But, it takes a lot of persuading, and proof that Rupert is wrong when he says that the sky will fall in if Labor is elected. The SMH also took this line with the Elizabeth Knight article explaining why business are terrified of a Federal Labor government, even if they will only say this anonymously (https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-big-business-won-t-say-publicly-about-a-labor-victory-20190418-p51fcr.html).
So why do people say overwhelmingly in opinions polls that they want to see real action on climate change, and a raise in Newstart? Because they feel safe to say that is what they would like in an opinion poll that will not have any effect on outcomes in the real world.
However, when they vote, fear of disruption becomes a factor, and so they vote in a dorection to allay their fears (conservative) rather than in a direction to effect the change that they wpuld like to see in a safe world (Labor / Greens).
So, the new research:
So I would argue that Labor has a better chance of getting rid of the conservatives / Coalition from Federal government if it puts forward forward progressive policy, without taking it to the extent that the 2 – 3% of swinging voters who will decide the election stop seeing Labor as a safe and steady option.
The vox pops that proliferate the media (print, radio, TV) drive me mad. As if they are indicative of anything other than what that one particular individual is thinking. A scourge IMO.
Every election, the promises from the two major contenders vying for government come think and fast. Pork barelling in marginal seats to win ‘the hearts and minds’ is widespread.
Every election it’s the same political theatrical show.
Trust us is the bipartisan mantra.
Trust in politicians is at an all time low.
It’s time to shake up the status quo aka business as usual.
In the face of AGW more and more ordinary citizens are beginning to understand the need and urgency for grassroots civil peaceful disobedience because politicians on their own will not take the real and rapid action required.
RR
Heading toward the City thru Bayswater I am told
Observer
Noted – will report back on wording tomorrow.
Observer @ #954 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:58 pm
Government should be acting to represent and do the best for the country
This sounds like a patronising antiquated version of government where the predestined and correct elite masterfully navigate the country and the plebs to their righteous place.
There’s been ample evidence that in fact recent governments of both Labor and Lib have been complete useless impediments to good outcomes in Australia. Where various sections of the population basically have to fight year long wars just to get heard. eg SSM, fracking and CSG, renewable energy and action on climate change, federal ICAC… etc
The only people who seem to have benefited from the last couple of decades are the interests who have provided donations to both Lab/Libs and already wealthy powerful people.
Really it is hard to see this kind of patronising take on government as not something straight out f the Barnaby J book, trust us we have your interests at heart.
That poll quoted via Canberra Times 52.8:47.2 – was that a separate poll or just some aggregation?
@Spence
It’s some voter project thingy, but it has the majors on stupid low primaries, which instantly makes me wary.
Greens and Centre Alliance say a RC into the MDB plan is needed.
Coalition and Labor say there is no need for a RC.
Perception by ordinary citizens – What have they got to hide? They’re all corrupt.
Honestly – I’m kind of frustrated that everything serious requires a Royal Commission. There are other pathways to investigate things. I think a Royal Commission is kind of a default “if you’re really serious about xx, then you need to have a Royal Commission”.
If a RC is needed, fine. But there’s a reason why they exist. Why specifically is a RC needed over any other possible process?
Quoll
Well said.
Phone polled (mobile) for first time ever tonight in Goldstein (Tim Wilson). Any other single seat polling calls out there tonight? Fairly neutral only asking candidate pref in the seat, preferred party in the national election, how voted last fed election, expected party to form government. No issue questions makes me think its not a newspaper poll.
Burgey says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 10:55 pm
I hope he’s not going to make a speech. 🙂
Peg, Quoll, nath….the Lib-kin are out in force….clearly, they’re very worried that Labor will win in spite of all the efforts of the Lib-Libs to defame Labor, to lie about Labor. Not content with this, the Lib-kin have thrown in more of their own well-worn lies as well.
I was door-knocking again this afternoon in a Perth marginal. Not a single voter declared they could not vote Labor because they were really just Libs. Not a one. The detachment from reality of the Liblings is virtually total. They should go forth into marginal seats and ask voters what they actually think; they should consider the very significant difficulties involved in persuading Lib-leaning voters to swap to Labor. They should consider the part they play in whipping up disillusionment and grievance. They should consider they ways in which their songs and the songs of ON are actually the same kind of song…a kind of idiot’s protest song.
Getting frustrated with other parties is not very productive. Increase the votes for the party you support and results follow. Not easy of course.
Quoll,
So why aren’t the Greens in contention to win the election?
Labor is trying to change the Government. The Lib-kin here are trying to prevent it. They are reformers or progressives in name only. In fact, they would rather have the status quo than have a Labor Government. This is very very obvious.
briefly – what has happened with your moniker spelling?
j341983 @ #966 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:15 pm
J341983,
Yes, to an extent the calls for ever more RC certainly seem to be a symptom of utterly useless and untrustworthy politicians seem to many Australians. For reasons elucidated above.
Who trusts either the Lib or Lab side to come together and provide clear transparent and open investigation of important matters?
An enquiry is required and the processes of transparent and trustworthy government have been systematically eroded, primarily in the interest of the two major parties over the last two decades as far I can see and I believe there is plenty of analysis to support that.
It is a symptom of how perversely broken Aus pol is. Lack of honesty and transparency, we all know what is said before an election is basically crap not to be expected after the election ends.
Some people seem to have no real idea how little trust is left in the political system. To think that ongoing bullshit hidden agendas and patronising trust us party lines is going to cure that problem, is deluded to my mind.
Be authenticate and straight forward or piss off I would think is an overwhelming thought of many to political campaigning.
The Bill Board is also designed for motorists who live in Aston, etc (further out east). Sukkar is Catholic. For the real looney tune jobs – you need to go to the likes of Neil Angus… Though Angus keeps his views a bit on the quiet…
.
The 9 Percenters. Why do they bother? 🙂
Again Peg – you misrepresent Labor.
On the RC Shorten said if they are unsatisfied that all documentation etc. is made public, they are open to a royal commission on the watergate thing.
If you find yourself typing the words “Lib-ling” or “Lib-kin” then you should probably pause and consider whether you are, in fact, nothing more than a weak minded partisan hack and whether your words of wisdom are really just a waste of electrons and other people’s time (I will assume your time is already of zero value).
D&M you eloquently substantiated what I was trying to say.
Ricky Muir attempting a comeback as lead senate candidate for SFFP in Victoria
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-23/ricky-muir-shooters-fishers-farmers-bid-for-senate-spot-victoria/11039256
Patrick Bateman….the Gs campaign against the election of a Labor Government. They are Libs in all but name on this most basic of issues. They are well-described as Lib-siblings. Very well-described. They are Lib-ling. They are Lib-kin. They are G-Lib. They are Lib-alike. They have aligned themselves against Labor. Make of it what you will. I know what I make of them.
And Quoll/Pegasus haven’t you seen the far right groups running this lack of trust line relatively successfully and being completely farcical in their attempts to even hold together a small party. The Greens have done fairly well to hold together a party getting 8-12% of the vote but have struggled to break out of this position. Getting broader support in a relatively conservative Australian population isn’t easy. Often leads to internal ructions etc. as people get frustrated with debate. Wondering what you see as ways the Greens will increase support.
We didn’t need a demonstration, but I suppose it’s nice to have one’s theories confirmed.
jenauthor,
Misrepresenting Labor is Pegasus’ thing. She’s been doing it ever since she joined the blog. As well as the ‘Atta Boys!’ for her kind and the snark for everyone else. As regular as clockwork.
Spence @ #970 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:23 pm
Hi Spence,
Posting on here is not campaigning, it’s rarely worth engaging the toerags who just keep using the same puerile attacks.
Greens and independents have been working hard for decades.
Personally I count the many thousands of people involved in all sorts of campaigns across the country as a part of the political process. Parliament should represent the nation and work for it’s overall interest, but doesn’t. In which case many thousands of ordinary Australians expend their time and often money to make something happen.
Those vested interests are also very powerful and have the two major parties changing the rules to help them. Remember the Gunns 5 in Tassie and Bob Brown getting arrested to challenge the new rules that government had introduced to hinder protest against private companies destroying the environment?
The Lab partisans whinge to the point of exasperation about the Murdochracy as well. Though like the typical school yard bully seem to think that the way to deal with that is use RWNJ memes on the Greens.
The notion and understanding of politics here seems really narrow and naive sometimes. Perhaps a product of some major party disease.
Thousands of Australian citizens have worked extremely hard, at cost to themselves often, to start or stop actions for or against the nations interest. Much harder, often with much greater sacrifice than any member of either the Lab Lib parties. Usually with little recognition or reward.
No wonder many pollies are considered useless pieces of shit, there to collect their pensions and perhaps a good lobbying or diplomatic position afterwards
This 52.8-47.2 result is from “Voter Choice”, some sort of research project (Google search 52.8, Australia, last 24 hours).
“The Voter Choice Project is an independent initiative to research voter behaviour and advocate for voters. It is not funded by, nor affiliated with, any political party.”
But then the IPA says that.
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/the-research/
Too tired to read the article, my quick scan didn’t yield much info.
I’d be taking it with a grain of salt.
…oh….if I tried, I’m sure I could come up with a few more similes. The question Always gets down to one thing…do you support the election of Labor, or not. If not, you’re a Lib.
Re-posting -Burke’s interview on ABC RN Drive this evening
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/shadow-environment-minister-tony-burke-rules-out-murray-darling/11040172
The Federal Government has ordered a review of all water purchases since 2008, in a bid to head off a gathering political storm over controversial water buybacks.
In 2017, Water Minister Barnaby Joyce signed off on the $80 million dollar purchase of two water entitlements from a company co-founded by Energy Minister Angus Taylor that was domiciled in the Cayman Islands.
Labor had threatened to call for a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, instead they’ll focus solely on Barnaby Joyce’s handling of the 2017 water buy backs.
Briefly: I would much rather read more of your policy ideas and on the ground campaigning reports, and less (or no more) Lib-ling (including Lib-.* more generally) since I think we all get the idea.
If, as has been claimed, there is a huge, pent-up demand in the mainstream for Green-like policies, can anyone explain to me, and others who might be curious, why the Green vote has been stuck at ~10% for decades, with no real indication that it’s going to go any higher, even in an election where climate change is more prominent than hitherto? Maybe I’m being thick – I frequently am – but there seems a bit of a disconnect there.
j341983 says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 11:15 pm
Honestly – I’m kind of frustrated that everything serious requires a Royal Commission. There are other pathways to investigate things. I think a Royal Commission is kind of a default “if you’re really serious about xx, then you need to have a Royal Commission”.
If a RC is needed, fine. But there’s a reason why they exist. Why specifically is a RC needed over any other possible process?
*********************
A RC can compel and pierce the corporate veil which many other forms of investigation/inquiry cannot.
There is too much for companies and (former) parliamentarians to hide behind if there is not a RC.
Spence @ #983 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:38 pm
Hi Spence,
I already said on this blog weeks ago that I expect perhaps 30% to not vote for majors at this election. We’ll see.
As I mentioned just before, many communities just ignore the party political path as it is self-evident that botht eh major parties have amercenary self-interest in getting one over the other, than actually addressing the issue at hand.
Both Labor and Lib tried to shove CSG down the throat of my community, and we saw them both off without a vote being cast. Though many hours of cost and sacrifice from community members that it seems almost no-one who posts here has any grasp of.
It would of course be far better to have a government that consists of MPs who actually give a shit about something other than their own mercenary ambition or their party.
People should listen to Greta Thunberg, get angry and get active, governments should be held to account by their citizens
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 11:44 pm
Why?
Thank you, Douglas and Milko. 🙂
I also think that an element of the herd mentality creeps into peoples’ decision-making at election time, such that if you are connected to a certain group in your community then you will feel the need to vote the way the dominant members of the group say they are going to vote. The ‘Go along to get along’ mentality.
I have to say that I feel the same sort of mentality applies to The Greens’ supporters who come to this blog. They seem to feel the need to come here and seek reinforcement for their views because they get so little elsewhere in the community-at-large.
Barney in Da Lat @ #994 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:49 pm
So she could add a snarky last paragraph? 🙂
Since its inception as a federated party in 1992 the Australian Greens and state Greens parties have been demonised and villified by the mainstream media and both major parties.
It is an uphill battle to push against these combined forces with their negative stereotypes and memes.
In such an hostile environment I actually believe capturing 10% Australia wide is quite a solid achievement, as is the number of parliamentarians and local councillors, including mayors the party has had over the years.
jenauthor
Thanks!
Your post inspired me to go and find references to the scientific evidence, which I am well across, to back up your assertions.
I find it depressing that some of the people who rely on the scientific evidence for why we need strong and fast action on climate change ignore the scientific evidence on how to get a majority of people to vote in they way they want them to.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 11:53 pm
Barney in Da Lat @ #994 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:49 pm
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 11:44 pm
What’s so snarky about it?
Labor want it to do as much damage as possible in the election campaign.
That doesn’t exclude looking at it more fully after, but any enquiry will have little effect now.