The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
Do they play tennis in Dunkley and Braddon? This Clanger today by Scotty in Boothby today will lose some votes..
Beth, the Labor Wayne. Love it.
EGW @ #722 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:20 pm
I think what you mean there is “revenge destroys”.
Beth
Sounds like a Murdoch scare campaign.
Cute mundo – no, I’m not American. But there’s a difference between being in the right mindset that helps when things might get tricky and preparing for defeat just because, obviously.
It’s not the power of positive thinking or all that bullshit.
I see your tennis pic and raise you a Shorten dancing pic:
Beth!!!! Very goood.
Scott is offering extra tax cuts in 3 years with surpluses…. all based on a shaky prediction that is never right, im sure people are gonna be all over that in droves to vote for the Liberal party!!
Meanwhile we all stick to our fossil cars, have 3rd world NBN, burn lots more coal and let the MDB completely dry up and die while we hand the big bucks over to those in the Caymans!!
Wow.. 8:44pm and my 4G connection is running at 0.65Mbps (ADSL gave up years ago and the NBN officially offers satellite).
A big fuck you to Turnbull and all of your Liberal voters (and sympathisers).
Shorten looking like he’s wearing his dad’s suit. Or George Christensen’s. 🙂
The Canberra Liberals – a nest of vipers:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6086351/canberra-liberals-defend-billboard/?cs=14350
nath @ #755 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:43 pm
That pic is so blurry it could be anyone dancing.
And also, that person’s dancing style is clearly miles better than Morrison’s tennis style.
citizen
says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:46 pm
The Canberra Liberals – a nest of vipers:
______________________
wow. they have stepped it up. Probably Canberra not the best place for deployment of that you would think.
With the Preferences of the Queensland Fat Man we shall have a tie with no one the Winner I predict
a r @ #752 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:42 pm
If it was revenge, it was poorly targeted.
The Oz only showed those seat poll results to highlight Palmers vote to become kingmaker. Palmer shit all over Abbott when he was last in the Senate, so he has no great love for the Libs as well as Labor.
Would anyone like to comment on reality imitates fiction.. Ukrainian election… Trump…
I commented on this yesterday, using your exact specific examples. I’ve been hammering this point for years. The same people who produce Reality TV, produce news… with exactly the same production values and goals.
The media see everything in terms of their own frame of reference. They need a good performer. Therefore the good performer is judged to be best at Prime Ministering. They tells us that what we need is a Fuhrer: strong and confident, no matter how phoney.
They absolve themselves completely from any blame for this state of affairs, of course. They’re only there to report what isn’t real, as if was Reality.
Which it is, obviously.
Betfair, yesterday (above) and just now. $310,000 matched in 24 hours.
a r
says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:47 pm
nath @ #755 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:43 pm
I see your tennis pic and raise you a Shorten dancing pic:
That pic is so blurry it could be anyone dancing.
And also, that person’s dancing style is clearly miles better than Morrison’s tennis style.
_____________________________
I think I’d just shade Bill on the dancefloor tbh. I think I’ve got a few more moves, done slightly better.
Pegasus @ #667 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:04 pm
As seems so often the case Peg, so-called opposition turns to piss and wind when it actually comes down to doing anything of action. Labor didn’t seem to be as useless and gutless as they appear to be now.
Really wonder how either of the major parties think that the people will take them seriously when it seems that obfuscation or limitations on transparency for their own political point scoring will engender anyone to go back to voting for them, or just get ever more cynical and couldn’t give a shit, as they’re all just running with mercenary self interest.
No doubt some of the Labor reticence is due to the dirty secret that they are just as suckled onto the corporate teat as the LNP these days. Raking over too much of any topic may bring this fetid circus of lobbyists and interests sold, into the far too clear light of day.
Seems that Labor are evacuating the field of addressing climate change as well, with those announcement for more gas. Sounds like they could be seeing opportunities for offshore gas in NSW and in the Great Australian Bight as well. Just as CSG was a deliverance of the ALP to start with, followed by the opportunism and mercenary disregard of the planet by the LNP. Both then cliaming it was the others fault and they can’t change it now.
Though of course in the face of community barricades, they did stop it in many places. The community giving them no real choice if they didn’t want to send in hundreds of cops and having arrest hundreds or thousands of their own citizens.
Looking less and less like any rational informed person could vote for either Lib or Lab if wanting action on climate and environmental issues.
Funny how the supposedly serious political parties treat the ecological crisis we are approaching as some game or joke to play with amongst themselves.
By the by, touring the byways of Maranoa electorate currently, represented by prime nong Littlepround.
From just down the road of the Tarong (coal) power station and its Meandu coal mine, via a distant relative, who had a handy copy of Ian Plimers climate trash book next to the sofa
People heard all about the promises of jobs for the region and boost for towns with the power station and mine, over 30 years ago. In reality not many jobs and in fact most local towns have gone backwards. In the heart of Maranoa even the locals don’t seem to buy the bullshit line about coal and jobs. Small sample size but seemed a pretty straightforward unsolicited response not part of any discussion about politics, just more discussion of how the towns are travelling, business conditions etc.
LR
For any polls out next put me down for:
Newspoll 52/48 to Labor
Essential 53/47 to Labor
Re Nath @8:43PM. That’s a vision of the future, the coronation of the Emperor William I of Australia
Nath has must have pics of Shorten all over his bedroom wall. It virtually borders on stalking.
sprocket_
looks like he has been attending the John Howard Bowling School
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o8by05rtMY
‘Bill is undecided and shifty, while Scott is determined and straightforward. ‘…. Say the Liberals….
“Bill is correct, while Scott is wrong”…. Say the voters of Australia….
Jesus, the Nath Thing is a pain in the arse.
Seven news had a brief clip of Shorten on earlier. He was talking with a paramedic or firefighter or something, who was saying wtte “a lot of us work overtime and nights and earn $250,000/year; where’s our tax cut”?
How much overtime and/or night work would a firefighter or ambulance driver need to do to earn $250k? And how much of an entitled ass do they have to be to think they need a tax cut on that salary?
steve davis
says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:52 pm
Nath has must have pics of Shorten all over his bedroom wall. It virtually borders on stalking.
________________________________________
Idiot. It’s called google images.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/tax-cut-will-drive-up-effective-tax-rate-for-middle-income-earners-20190423-p51gin.html
If Trump can be President anything can happen but do not get cocky as I feel signs of in the Labor Camp
No one thought Trump will win I thought so and won a good wager with odds not to dissimilar to the Coalition right know
But I will keeping my hard earned in my Wallet for now or until Barnaby takes his Pills
If you knew the Canberra Liberals (I live there) you would not be surprised at all at what they are doing. Seselja and the opposition leadership in the ACT House of Assembly are as hard right as they come.
EGW @ #764 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:48 pm
As was the preceding incident of revenge. As such things usually are.
Damo
Stop fence sitting and put your house on your beloved.
citizen
says:
If you knew the Canberra Liberals (I live there) you would not be surprised at all at what they are doing. Seselja and the opposition leadership in the ACT House of Assembly are as hard right as they come.
_____________________________________
they can’t win a seat there. Seems a waste of a truck and a death scare!
Bushfire Bill
says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:53 pm
Jesus, the Nath Thing is a pain in the arse.
____________________
Haven’t you got an anti-Chinese scare to agitate. shitbag.
The Jacinda Ardern mural to be painted on a silo:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mural-plan-speaks-volumes-about-our-own-political-leadership-20190423-p51ghp.html
Quoll @ #769 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Hey Quoll,
While you’re here, can you tell us how many coal mines the Greens have shut down?
Really disappointed in Labor’s approach to climate change too. This was the election to really grasp the nettle and be the mainstream option for people who realise that this is far and away the biggest problem facing humanity and, therefore, Australia.
We’ve just been pounded by massive heatwaves and drought, and the weather continues to be disturbingly warm well into April (here in SA it has literally not rained more than a couple of millimetres so far in “autumn” and has been unseasonably hot for weeks).
Not that we’ll ever know, but my bet is that any losses in Queensland would be more than offset by gains in the rest of the country. A lot of people are starting to get very scared about climate change, with good reason. Labor should be providing the sane pathway to change in Australia.
One can only hope that this gas nonsense is nothing more than a ploy to get Queensland to shut up for 5 minutes while Labor tries to win the election, not a serious plan to churn out huge volumes more fossil fuels.
That aside, what I find continually depressing is that even 47-48% of my fellow Australians could ever contemplate voting for the rent-seeking, born to rule, racist, sexist morons in the Coalition. Are people really so disengaged and money hungry that they will support even these greedy fools?
There are plenty of pessimists in all parties. Just because someone has doubts about winning doesn’t make them a “concern troll” or other label. Having people who are super optimists is just as much a problem – is there an “optimist troll”. All part of the rich tapestry of life.
Betting on elections – the odds are made by the people putting up the money and the bookies trying to avoid losing money. Yes it can provide some information and people don’t enjoy losing money but who can forget some elections where the punters were way off.
It’s not about the House of Reps. It’s about Seselja retaining his Senate seat.
As there are only two ACT senate seats, Seselja will almost certainly be returned but is likely to suffer a big swing against him.
EGW
Do you care more about scoring imaginary points against “the Greens” than everyone having a habitable planet to continue living on?
What pathway do you see to curbing climate change if we as a species continue to act as Australia has to date?
‘That aside, what I find continually depressing is that even 47-48% of my fellow Australians could ever contemplate voting for the rent-seeking, born to rule, racist, sexist morons in the Coalition. Are people really so disengaged and money hungry that they will support even these greedy fools?’
Absolutely they will,and for most of us here we cant understand it either.
“Concern troll” is the favoured label of the Labor right for anyone who doesn’t wholly embrace the wisdom of every move made by Labor at every moment in time.
Agency………………………ALP odds………………Coalition odds
Sportsbet………………….1.22…………………………..4.25
Bet Easy…………………….1.22………………………….4.25
Ladbrokes………………….1.25………………………….3.9
Unibet……………………….1.25…………………………..4
Ubet…………………………..1.25………………………….3.6
GAME…… SET……. MATCH!
The Queensland Fat Man aka Clive Palmer has been showing ad directly against Billy Boy so I do not think he will preference Labor
It will either a Split Ticket which advantages no one or a LNP preference
What people do not know he will get a vote similar to the Greens who always Preference Labor
He can get some Senate sweeteners from the LNP what can he get from Labor
citizen
says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 9:02 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:57 pm
citizen
says:
If you knew the Canberra Liberals (I live there) you would not be surprised at all at what they are doing. Seselja and the opposition leadership in the ACT House of Assembly are as hard right as they come.
_____________________________________
they can’t win a seat there. Seems a waste of a truck and a death scare!
It’s not about the House of Reps. It’s about Seselja retaining his Senate seat.
As there are only two ACT senate seats, Seselja will almost certainly be returned but is likely to suffer a big swing against him.
________________________________
Ah. gotchya. Well I hope he loses badly. He’s one of those who opposed SSM. Plus he kinda reminds me of what the anti-Christ would look like. And Im an atheist!
Media Release by Lock the Gate Alliance:
https://www.lockthegate.org.au/bill_s_fracking_billions_a_bad_move_during_climate_election
Opposition leader Bill Shorten’s plan to create a $1.5 billion fund to encourage the unconventional gas industry in Queensland and the Northern Territory is a disastrous move for landholders, regional communities, and the climate, according to Lock the Gate Alliance.
Responding to reports a Shorten Government, if elected, would replace the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility with a fund to encourage onshore gas projects, LTGA spokesperson Naomi Hogan said the announcement would not win votes during an election where climate change was at the forefront of people’s minds.
“The unconventional gas industry is a massive carbon polluter,” she said.
“Fracking for gas in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin could unleash a carbon disaster that would make it impossible for Australia to meet our Paris targets.
“It will raise Australia’s emissions by 6%, at a time we need to be bringing them down.
“Fracking the gas out of the Beetaloo Basin has been measured to be the pollution equivalent of building and operating at least 50 new coal fired power stations – it’s the wrong move for Australia.
“The CO2 emissions created during the extraction and transport process are far greater than any offsets created by burning the gas for power.
“The industry has also still been unable to address the issue of releasing methane emissions from gas wells.
“Federal Labor has ruled out NAIF funding for the climate wrecking project of Adani, how can it justify propping up an industry that will trash the Northern Territory with fracking?”
There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that the scale of methane emissions from unconventional gas mining and fracking makes it potentially more polluting than coal when burnt for electricity.
Ms Hogan said Mr Shorten’s announcement was a slap in the face for regional communities fighting against the invasive unconventional gas industry, particularly those in the Northern Territory.
“Territorians are overwhelmingly opposed to the onshore gas fracking industry,” she said.
“There have been ongoing protests since the Gunner Government lifted the moratorium on the fracking industry last year, and these will no doubt increase if a future Shorten Government ignores the will of the people and encourages fracking in the NT.”
I had the misfortune of flicking through a copy of The Australian the other day.
Front page: LABOR WILL WRECK THE ECONOMY, SCOMO IS OUR ECONOMIC SAVIOUR
Front page of business: wage growth is down, property prices are crashing, there is real concern that household spending is about to stop dead and send the whole economy into a tailspin, meanwhile we are horribly exposed to an increasingly capricious and pissed off China
I assume none of this newspaper’s readers would read these two prominent parts of the newspaper and work out that the Liberal Party have presided over the nation while it has reached its current precarious economic state. It would be funny if it wasn’t so dangerous.
Patrick Bateman @ #790 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:02 pm
For a start, electing a Labor Govt that will actually do something other than lots of virtue signalling.
What Australia does only really matters to the extent it gives us credibility with the world community and helps to influence international action. We don’t have an Australian atmosphere or an Australian ocean. We need to promote action on a global scale.
The Nath Thing is losing its cool. And so soon!