Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.
Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.
However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.
Marcos De Feilittt
says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 8:08 pm
Cit
Is Abbott becoming a happy clapper or is Morrison becoming a Catholic?
_____________________________
While it was a feature of mainstream Protestantism to consider the Catholic Church as ‘evil’ and the Pope as an ‘anti-Christ’, I believe that the Evangelical tradition does not share this view.
“party of government”
There’s the born to rule attitude that the two party establishment has again.
“Yes Firey,
Off to the NRL game on the box
Roo much rum has kept me here.”
Drink up me hearty, yo ho!
*Drink responsibly* 😛
Firefox
says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 8:10 pm
“party of government”
There’s the born to rule attitude that the two party establishment has again.
__________________________________
‘Party of government’. All that means is that Bludgers like Sprocket and Grimace put on a serious face and pretend they are online Cabinet ministers with the weight of the world on their shoulders. It’s very amusing.
Although I generally try to keep out of the Greens/Labor wars, I do have one observation.
Labor in general has accepted responsibility for the mismanagement of leadership during RGR (regardless of what side you are on) and also conceded the failure to win the public perception war on a carbon price. It has publicly committed to changing on both fronts and has done so.
I would be interested to hear of instances where the Greens have admitted they got it wrong and have publicly committed to doing better. Fair enough if someone can supply instances of such, but I suspect crickets will be all I hear.
Surely they have not always been perfect?
Firefox
I do believe that I am the only poster on Bludger who has read every single line of the Greens policies. Word for word.
FYI, ‘holding Labor to account’ is not in the Greens policy statements.
But ‘closing all facilities that might be used to deploy nuclear weapons’ IS in the Greens policy document.
You reckon you are a ninti pulka. What on earth does that mean?
“‘Party of government’. All that means is that Bludgers like Sprocket and Grimace put on a serious face and pretend they are online Cabinet ministers with the weight of the world on their shoulders. It’s very amusing.”
Hehe so true.
I prefer ‘born to rule’ to ‘born never to rule’.
I mean, why waste your whole life on a political nothingburger?
But of course that is a false dichotomy.
I prefer ‘voted in by the people to form a government’
Now THAT is good!
Betting still has Labor clear favorites with some correction to better reflect opinion polling.
@ajm
Self-reflection is not Greens strong suit. After shambolic Vic state election, they continue on like nothing has happened and blame their opponents for the poor result. This resulted in a number of resignations in protest.
I think there is widespread agreement among ALP membership that mistakes were made in the past and shouldn’t be repeated again.
ajm:
Very good observation. RDN’s leadership has been a failure when you think about it.
“Firefox
I do believe that I am the only poster on Bludger who has read every single line of the Greens policies. Word for word.
FYI, ‘holding Labor to account’ is not in the Greens policy statements.
But ‘closing all facilities that might be used to deploy nuclear weapons’ IS in the Greens policy document.
You reckon you are a ninti pulka. What on earth does that mean?”
Wayne, you constantly bang on about the Greens being in cahoots with the Libs. You can’t be taken seriously when you talk such nonsense and it proves that you don’t actually know what the Greens stand for at all.
Gorks
Probably the best reflection of your point has been the extreme discipline demonstrated by Labor over the past six years. There was a very brief moment when Albo kicked over the traces but that was that.
The truly large lesson from the RGR years has been taken to heart.
mundo
This is a pseph site. Which means that most posters here have some handle on what polling means. The ‘Labor can’t lose this’ is not mindless optimism, but is always in context of ‘based on present polling and the history of how this converts to votes on the day.”
If anything, posters here have consistently warned against hubris.
I really haven’t seen much unfounded optimism at all. I’ve seen a lot more unfounded pessimism.
Yes, unexpected events can come along and derail campaigns. It might still happen. It’s just unlikely to.
And, as I keep saying – if you’re panicking, do something about it. Donate your time or your money. Argue with people on social media and in real life.
The more worried you are, the more effort you should be putting in.
“I prefer ‘born to rule’ to ‘born never to rule’.
I mean, why waste your whole life on a political nothingburger?
But of course that is a false dichotomy.
I prefer ‘voted in by the people to form a government’
Now THAT is good!”
Still pretending the ACT government doesn’t exist I see. Ok. You do you, Wayne.
Firefox @ #1352 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:10 pm
No it’s not. It’s purely a technical term to describe a party that has sufficient support in the parliament to form a government, either on its own or in coalition with smaller parties. At some point in the future the Greens may be in that situation but realistically they are not likely to be so in the short or medium term. Things can change – look at the decline of the SPD in Germany but I suspect that at the moment in Australia the Liberals are the party most exposed to that sort of fate.
Firefox
I see that you do not know what is meant by ‘closing all facilities that might be used for the deployment of nuclear weapons.’
Perhaps you are not a ninti pulka after all.
Here is the thing. This is potentially a serious thing. Suppose DiNatale in the Senate suddenly makes it a negotiating condition that the Greens will not support new cancer funding unless the Labor Government closes all facilities that might be used for the deployment of nuclear weapons?
The policy is there in black and white.
Would DiNatale insist that all the airports big enough to land a nuclear armed bomber be closed? Close down all our naval support facilities?
All we get on this topic is a bit of personal abuse and a bit of policy silence from the Greens because they literally do not know what that policy line is supposed to actually achieve.
I don’t know what it means, and I do believe I have given that line much more thought than your average Greens supporter, none of whom even know that that policy exists.
“Labor in general has accepted responsibility for the mismanagement of leadership during RGR (regardless of what side you are on) and also conceded the failure to win the public perception war on a carbon price. It has publicly committed to changing on both fronts and has done so.”
The current Labor leadership may have abandoned taking serious action on climate change because it’s politically easier for them, however, Gillard disagrees with that weak stance.
In her own words….
“Labor should not in opposition abandon our carbon pricing scheme. Climate change is real. Carbon should be priced. Community concern about carbon pricing did abate after its introduction. Tony Abbott does not have a viable alternative.
While it will be uncomfortable in the short term to be seen to be denying the mandate of the people, the higher cost would be appearing as, indeed becoming, a party unable to defend its own policy and legislation: a party without belief, fortitude or purpose.
Labor is on the right side of history on carbon pricing and must hold its course. Kevin Rudd was both right and brave to say this in the dying days of the campaign.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-labor-purpose-future
rhwombat says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 7:03 pm
If I had my druthers, I would like to see a Canadian (or Scandinavian)-like system that funded all parts of Medicine from a single central fund that paid public practice (including primary practice) by salary bands, and let the privateers squabble for the convenience of the worried wealthy. Not going to happen though.
——————————————-
Thank you Wombat for your thoughtful contribution. It was music to my ears. When I have explored this idea with many Australians their eyes glaze over and they can’t believe that there is a much better alternative to what they’ve got. It’s good to have your views confirmed by someone who has the lived experience. All but the last sentence: “Not going to happen though.”
I am a bit more upbeat because where health care is involved I believe Australians would be able to cut through the political bullshit which would be arrayed against a single-payer universal system, not to mention the vested interests.
I was around in 1959 when Tommy Douglas, the agrarian-socialist Premier of Saskatchewan battled with the province’s medical profession to bring in the first universal public health care system in North America. After a 23-day doctor’s strike the provincial health care plan was on its way and within a few years the profession had come to appreciate its benefits for them, especially guaranteed payment and not having to bill patients.
And again in 1966 when the national Liberal (centre-left) government of Lester Pearson took Saskatchwan’s plan and brought in the present universal healthcare system across Canada, single-payer and all bulk billed. It has become an icon in Canadian identity as Canadians look across the border at the U.S. system. It is the answer given overwhelmingly when they are asked what they like best about their country. And the country hasn’t gone broke paying for it out of consolidated revenue.
I can’t believe that Australian voters in this day and age would not respond to a party that offered the same thing. If, as I suspect, Labor’s cancer initiative plays a big role in the forthcoming election, then it could be the first stage towards a full single payer system. I may be a Pollyanna, but I think politically it’s a no-brainer.
There would be a problem dealing with the current employees in private insurance, but my hope would be that those companies would continue to offer insurance for the health frills. Redundant workers would go to the national health insurance entity.
I’d appreciate a little detail from you on why such a proposal wouldn’t fly.
Steve777 @ #1311 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 7:38 pm
What some of the wealthy fail to appreciate is that if they ever have anything seriously wrong ot have an accident, they will almost invariably end up in a public hospital.
Private hospitals are big on elective procedures and maternity.
Wayne, NZ has long been a nuclear free zone. If it works for them it will work for us too.
The average annual income for psychiatrists in Australia is about $210,000 – so about the same as the income of a Member of Parliament.
Psychiatrists are the lowest paid specialists (on average).
What are waiting lists like in Canada?
Are the longer or shorter than in Australia?
We have around 800,000 on waiting lists for elective surgery now for a population of 25 million.
I wonder why no Greens can explain their closer of facilities that might be used to deploy nuclear weapons policy?
Have they all been too busy holding nobody to account?
I don’t know what these numbers mean. One number mentioned is a bit over a million on waiting lists compared to our current number of about 800,000 on waiting lists. There is a fair bit of discussion about waiting times. And, as previously noted by other posters, there is a bit of mucking around with how Australia’s waiting lists are calculated.
It is confusing:
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/waiting-your-turn-wait-times-for-health-care-in-canada-2017
I have been around this site on and off for many years as well.
And every federal election is the same. There are some here who are stampeded into the horrors so easily, by other nervous nellies and some others who deliberately play on people’s doubts.
All this talk about betting markets is just such garbage. I follow the polling and I keep track of the MOE.
Labor are doing well and well on track to win. Don’t let anyone tell you any different.
The Coalition would rather be in Labor’s position then where they are themselves.
You want to bet, you can bet on that.
Stop listening to the concern trolls and the half hearted panicked nervous nellies who bark at shadows.
Once The Easter holidays are done across the states, this phoney campaign will end and the real game will be afoot.
Cannot wait to see Labor’s campaign move into gear and start flying.
Wayne, why would we need to explain it? Our nuclear policy is very clear. Please have a read and while you’re there you should browse the rest of our policies.
https://greens.org.au/policies/nuclear-and-uranium
‘Nicholas says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 8:36 pm
I thought the Private Psychiatrists (ie a ‘thinking specialty’), were very well paid?
The average annual income for psychiatrists in Australia is about $210,000 – so about the same as the income of a Member of Parliament.
Psychiatrists are the lowest paid specialists (on average).’
Is that a trained doctor with some additional special training in psychology?
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 8:36 pm
I wonder why no Greens can explain their closer of facilities that might be used to deploy nuclear weapons policy?
ALL such facilities?
No?
What?
Well, time for bed. Good night and sweet dreams everyone.
Ian McAuley describes the craziness of private health insurance:
http://www.ianmcauley.com/academic/confs/weirdhealthcare.pdf
(from page 7 of the paper)
“Labor are doing well and well on track to win. Don’t let anyone tell you any different.”
This is correct. Labor should not be complacent or take the result for granted but they’re definitely the front runners by the length of the straight right now.
Sweet dreams, Wayne.
Boerwar @ #1341 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:04 pm
The Greens have created a brand – ‘Greens’ and some voters buy the brand without looking what lies behind it. They assume it is all about the environment and warm fuzzy feelings.
Firefox
If you persist in calling Boerwar Wayne, you’ll end up getting a rocket from William sooner or later. He doesn’t take kindly to that sort of thing.
Marcos De Feilittt @ #1348 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:08 pm
Well strange things can happen.
None other than GG was defending the ‘happy clappers’ earlier.
Truly.
mundo @ #1350 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:10 pm
Bugger off Jeremiah.
EGW @8:32
“Private hospitals are big on elective procedures and maternity.”
And of course they don’t have emergency departments. That’s the thing, they cherry-pick patients and procedures, leaving the unprofitable of both to the public system. It’s a myth that they take the pressure off the public system. It’s classic “privatise the profits and socialise the losses”.
Apart from low fee religious schools, the same goes for “private” education. The reasons for a separate Catholic School system in particular no longer apply except for the few remaining devout. The Church can surely pay for the few who truly worry their childrens’ souls will be damaged in the public system. As for most “private” schools, parents are paying extra to push their kids to the head of the pack. There’s allowed to do that but the public purse shouldn’t help pay for it.
“The Greens have created a brand – ‘Greens’ and some voters buy the brand without looking what lies behind it. They assume it is all about the environment and warm fuzzy feelings.”
The Greens are definitely not just “all about the environment”. Environmentalism is absolutely one of our core pillars and will always be of the utmost importance to us, but that doesn’t stop us from being able to walk and chew gum at the same time. The Greens constantly and loudly campaign on a wide range of issues.
“Firefox
If you persist in calling Boerwar Wayne, you’ll end up getting a rocket from William sooner or later. He doesn’t take kindly to that sort of thing.”
Sounds kind of like being pulled up by the Speaker of the House for not addressing members by their proper titles!
Well all I know is that a spiffy van came around to my house tonight and it was filled with extra large candidate posters for our candidate, about 3 metres by 1.5 metres and now I have one outside my house for everyone to see! The Liberals around here are going to be spewing! 😆
Firefox @ #1388 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 8:52 pm
Of course they are not. Boerwar regularly catalogues some of their other bizarre aspirations.
But the average punter doesn’t look beyond the brand.
Pity.
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 19, 2019 at 8:36 pm
What are waiting lists like in Canada?
Are the longer or shorter than in Australia?
We have around 800,000 on waiting lists for elective surgery now for a population of 25 million.
———————————-
Take a look at this, but remember the Fraser Institute is the Canadian counterpart of the IPA in this country,
https://globalnews.ca/news/3084366/q-a-how-long-are-medical-wait-times-in-canada-by-province-and-procedure/
It seems to suggest that there are a million Canadians waiting out of a population of 36 million which sounds better than Australia. Someone can do the math.
C@tmomma @ #1390 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 9:06 pm
For the first time ever I put my foot down with the wife and insisted on my right to put up not one but two such signs. 😀
Domestic bliss soon resumed as there were no ill effects experienced.
I am hoping they will serve to start a few conversations with neighbours and passers by as well as being highly visible to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in both directions.
While the betting stuff is interesting………with no polls around……….I seem to remember that in previous elections, betting odds are not a good indicator of outcomes. “Follow the money’ is not what polls are about.
I seem to remember at the last Federal election the betting markets did not predict all that well and the same applied to the Victorian election. As I understand it, the money follows the polls down or up, not the other way around. The polls wag the betting dog; the betting does not wag the poll dog.
Having said this, it is a bit of fun in any event.
Federal elections have always been 2-horse races and the closer the date the closer the polls seem to be.
The test in the next few weeks is whether the 2-3 years of poll leadership by Labor means anything at all.
My view is that if Labor do not win this one, then all the polls since the last election have been not much better than looking a tea leaves in a cup. Why bother polling at all, it the only ones which matter are 3-4 weeks out from the election itself?
EGW @ #1385 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
Why should someone who has commented here for 10 years bugger off as opposed to you who has only been here for a week at most?
Methinks you should take your own advice if you can’t find tolerance for this site’s diversity of commenters.
Red13
Back upstream, very sage advice.
C@t:
This is the first federal election in a long time that I’ve seen corflutes for the Labor candidate. I haven’t seen any corflutes yet for the LNP, but admit to having seen highway signs for the Nats candidate.
The Project
Verified account @theprojecttv
The Government’s been buying up water at record prices, leading to millions of dollars flowing to offshore tax havens. But now, two of our top pollies are facing questions over just who is making a fortune off our water.
@HamishNews and @MichaelWestBiz bring you this report
beguiledagain @ #1392 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 9:10 pm
Waiting lists are not always a bad thing.
The length of such lists should be very small, approaching zero for time critical procedures.
For non-urgent procedures, a wait of a few months may not have any real impact on a patient.
If you want to keep expensive equipment and staff fully occupied then you need to have a queue of patients ‘ready to go’ as soon as their number is called.
Confessions @ #1395 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 9:10 pm
Mundo only contributes his moans and groans of negativity.
Maybe you enjoy that?