BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Not much doing in the one published poll to emerge since the start of the election campaign, reflected in a stable reading from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.

Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.

However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 32
  1. Confessions

    I agree with you on the importance of Labor’s tax reforms and intergenerational equity. The fact is, not every baby boomer is going to retire a millionaire. And some who do should be made to pay back in tax some of their overgenerous ax gifts.

    The reason for this is not only fairness, but enlightened self interest. Younger generations are not advancing in wealth accumulation as their predecessors did. Ten years from now all those retired boomers (including me) will be reliant on the taxes paid by millennials to fund the health system. If the millennials are all still impoverished renters with no spare disposable income, the system will implode.

  2. I am very disturbed that RDN will go into negotiations over climate policy with pre-set goals for the outcome. Perhaps someone should explain to him what negotiation means. It does not mean taking a position and refusing to move.

    In the event it’s not a minority government scenario, if Labor wins outright and the Greens are in balance of power in the Senate, Di Natale also wants it known that his party is prepared to vote against a climate policy it regards as insufficiently ambitious, as the Greens did once before, controversially, in 2009.

    Ahead of the election, the shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, warned the Greens against a repeat of 2009. Butler told Guardian Australia the Greens voting with Tony Abbott against Labor’s first climate policy mechanism during the last period in government was one of the factors in shattering the political consensus at the federal level, which has prevented policy action for the best part of a decade.

    The Greens leader says it is impossible to be definitive about a post-election decision right now, given Labor’s policy still contains several unknowns, but he says the policy Shorten and Butler are taking to the 2019 election is weaker than the policy of 2016 and “now is the time to base a policy on science”.

    Di Natale says if Labor’s climate policy, post-election, meets the Greens’ test of ambition, and one of the relevant tests of ambition is “a plan to phase out coal”, then Shorten can expect support.

    “But if it’s going to lock in failure, then we won’t support it. We will make a decision based on the policy.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/richard-di-natale-labor-should-come-to-negotiating-table-on-climate-policy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  3. di Natale’s approach will mean that, once again, Labor will try and get a package through with the support of other parties – which in turn, will likely be less ‘green’ than if di Natale had been open to compromise.

  4. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 7:36 am
    Di Natalie declares the Greens have learnt nothing at all.
    ——————————-
    You do not need to learn when you already know everything.

  5. MB
    “The average Australian is far better off than all the carry on in the media about depressed wages and poverty and income inequality would have you think. There certainly are some disadvantaged people, but there are few better lifestyles available in the world than that of an Australian household where both partners are employed full-time.”

    Spoken like a baby boomer. And do you know what proportion of households have both partners working full time, as opposed to part time or casual? From the census 57% of workers have a full time job. Only one household in three as two full time workers. The bottom half struggle.
    https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/036

  6. Burgey:

    It’s always been my view that Baby Boomers have sucked up all the wealth in this country. I just don’t think they should be euthanased or all lumped together as selfish Liberal voting types.

  7. Surely not all Greens parliamentarians and supporters are as arrogant as Di Natale:

    Di Natale says if Labor’s climate policy, post-election, meets the Greens’ test of ambition, and one of the relevant tests of ambition is “a plan to phase out coal”, then Shorten can expect support.

    “But if it’s going to lock in failure, then we won’t support it. We will make a decision based on the policy.” (From the Guardian article)

  8. zoomster says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 8:14 am

    di Natale’s approach will mean that, once again, Labor will try and get a package through with the support of other parties – which in turn, will likely be less ‘green’ than if di Natale had been open to compromise.

    That’s the point they don’t get.
    —-

    And in other news, a book launching today.

    How to make yourself irrelevant!
    The story of the Greens!

  9. Meanwhile with respect to Notre Dame fire.
    I have had a look at Macron when giving address to nation re fire and rebuilding commitment. His body language was strange to me. I’ll reserve judgment, whilst I continue to observe the investigation.

  10. Not to mention the difference between mean and median income…the ‘average’ income maybe 80K, but the income the ‘middle’ income person earns is something like 46K- half of people earn less than that.

  11. Another day of the media furiously spinning the Morriscum government back into office……I’ve tried not to watch/listen but it’s just so hard to look away…..

  12. Vic,

    His VC is a bit thin too. As the writer said, at the moment he’s more the outcome of Political journalist’s needs to have a candidate that reflects their particular values than anything else. but, we’ll see how his candidacy unfolds in coming months.

  13. Sad that Storer isn’t recontesting.

    He was a very rare beast,

    Someone who’s support could be bought with reason, not bribery and horse trading.

  14. Victoria @ #76 Thursday, April 18th, 2019 – 8:45 am

    GG

    As per my post above, I dont see him being the candidate.

    Don’t disagree. But, he could evolve in to an important Member of any Democrat administration. His thoughtful commentary about the reasons for the obvious disconnect between the traditional Dems and the Eastern elites that has paved the way for Trump’s ascendancy are interesting. As I said, i’m looking forward to how it all evolves.

  15. Socrates, you and your fellow bleating complainers are the problem – you should look in the mirror instead of attacking “millionaire baby boomers” as you do

    Everyone achieves in life – with the measure not only being monetary but also contribution to the society we live in

    So those who volunteer their time and expertise and donate to the causes of society including as alumni

    I might remind you that “Baby Boomers” endured an upper marginal tax rate of 60 cents in the $1-, from Menzies to Hawke

    So the tax system did not contribute to the accrual of wealth

    What did contribute to the accrual of wealth was frugal habits and compounding, over a working life – and repaying debt

    You are not only totally naive, you are dangerous with your attacks on “millionaires”

    There are many “Baby Boomers” reliant on welfare (as I note you will be)

    And some may have endured circumstances and opportunity which has contributed to that outcome and are unfortunate but that is why we pay (and have paid) tax and otherwise donated – such that we all live in a cohesive society

    There are others who have achieved, who are fully self funded in retirement and receive no support from government including by meeting private health insurance

    And, given your health, you still contribute to society including providing a helping hand to others in need

    Not by putting jealous, uneducated and lazy vitriol on sites such as this

    If you want to live in the perfect socialist State, go and find one

    What I aspire to is a productive, dynamic economy to the benefit of Capital including retention of profit to fund growth and, equally, a fair reward to labour because the economy is the generation of goods and services AND the ability of citizens to purchase those goods and services

    Capital is population investing and for that investment a return by way of dividend is the requirement

    Yes, in the economy of the Nation there has been a focus on reducing (and eliminating) tax obligations and a progressive government will address that focus as is being promoted with the focus on Negative Gearing, Franking Credits being remitted regardless of any actual tax liability, Trusts and other tax minimisation vehicles and Balance Sheet manipulations including profit transfers

    To the benefit of the society we have built and aspire to live in (well, I would put, most of us anyway because unfortunately there are exceptions confirmed by your bias and those you attack)

  16. Breaking News; I just heard and saw someone from the ALP talking concisely, authoritatively confidently and fluently about Labor policy on Sky!!!!
    His name is Anthony Albanese….

  17. Torchbearer says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 8:32 am
    [i]Not to mention the difference between mean and median income…the ‘average’ income maybe 80K, but the income the ‘middle’ income person earns is something like 46K- half of people earn less than that.[/i]

    For household incomes, median is about 20% lower than the mean, not over 40% lower.
    http://www.abs.gov.au/household-income

  18. House Judiciary Chair.

    (((Rep. Nadler)))Verified account@RepJerryNadler
    43m43 minutes ago
    I’m deeply troubled by reports that the WH is being briefed on the Mueller report AHEAD of its release. Now, DOJ is informing us we will not receive the report until around 11/12 tomorrow afternoon — AFTER Barr’s press conference. This is wrong. #ReleaseTheReport

  19. Jonathan Green
    @GreenJ
    37m37 minutes ago

    Groundwater and bird life aside, surely the more fundamental problem with the Adani mine is that it will release 2.3 billion tonnes of mainly low quality high ash coal over 60 years.
    THAT is an act of gobsmackingly stupid global bastardry. But hey, jobs in Townsville.

  20. From Briefly
    For Labor, it’s plain the Gs are an enemy. They are intent on preventing the election of a Labor Government. This is their constant goal. Everything the Gs do is calibrated by this purpose. Everything.

    From C@t
    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 6:37 am
    briefly,
    All I can add is that I am glad that I am not a member of The Greens. I can see now how their petty squabbles blow up into major intra party war! Each and every one of them has to have the last word. Accompanied by a tome rivaling War and Peace

    Briefly and C@t

    If your aim was to set up yet another boring and pointless slanging match between the usual suspects from both sides I think you just achieved it. Congratulations.

  21. Barney in Mui Ne says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 8:52 am
    Sad that Storer isn’t recontesting.

    He was a very rare beast,

    Someone who’s support could be bought with reason, not bribery and horse trading.

    Couldn’t agree more. It’s bound to make Labor’s job of getting stuff through a recalcitrant Senate even harder.

  22. Darn @ #89 Thursday, April 18th, 2019 – 9:12 am

    Barney in Mui Ne says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 8:52 am
    Sad that Storer isn’t recontesting.

    He was a very rare beast,

    Someone who’s support could be bought with reason, not bribery and horse trading.

    Couldn’t agree more. It’s bound to make Labor’s job of getting stuff through a recalcitrant Senate even harder.

    He was never going to win a quota. So, Labor’s task will be no more difficult.

  23. “Breaking News; I just heard and saw someone from the ALP talking concisely, authoritatively confidently and fluently about Labor policy on Sky!!!!
    His name is Anthony Albanese….”

    Anthony Albanese, Leader of the Opposition 2019-2021

  24. It’s a pity there is so much exaggeration on blogs. It doesn’t make for respectful conversations.

    For example, calling Greens ‘enemies’ is exaggeration. They are simply competitors within the same broad policy area, but surely would be less detrimental to society than if One Nation or the Fanningites were in charge. The LNP, on the other hand, have already proved how they can reduce ‘society’ to its lowest level.

  25. From previous thread…

    EGW @ #853 Thursday, April 18th, 2019 – 9:17 am

    psyclaw @ #849 Thursday, April 18th, 2019 – 12:56 am

    Barney

    I have been waiting for more than an hour to see who, if anyone, would comment on what Confessions has been writing in 7 or 8 posts about the exorbitant cost being charged for one night of respite.

    At last someone has ….. you.

    This has to be gouging of government funds in the extreme. Like a dog licks himself, they do it because they can.

    I am reminded that the first young man to die in the pink batts installations was a casual employee of a subcontractor of a subcontractor of the mob who actually had the government contract (incidentally, a big real estate company). It’s government money so it is there to be gouged, at every level as the dollars travel down to the coalface ….. in this case, to the person with the disability. The gouged dollars are of course “admin costs”

    Back to tonight, Confessions is defending the indefensible. She appears to have totally missed the point. Her proposition that the case in question occurs because NDIS is underfunded is quite illogical. The tweet posted by Lizzie actually complains that the person has already been allocated adequate funding, but that the allocation is being gouged. It is actually a case of whistleblowing the gouging, not about complaining about the NDIS itself.

    Confessions response that the person should feel grateful to actually have a respite option is an unconscionable argument along the lines “stop whinging ……. at least YOU have someone to gouge your allocation”.

    Confessions evidently works somewhere in the allied health sector. Her enthusiasm to defend this gouging (and on several occasions to blame Lizzie ‘for not posting enough details’) suggests that she may in fact work in the space that this case occurs within, and she may be defending a raw nerve.

    Barney and lizzie were being trolled.

  26. mundo says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 8:39 am
    Another day of the media furiously spinning the Morriscum government back into office……I’ve tried not to watch/listen but it’s just so hard to look away…..

    Mundo

    If it helps you to cope any better, they tried to do exactly the same here in Victoria prior to the state election in November. Labor won in a landslide.

  27. Sad that Storer isn’t recontesting.

    Damn tooting.
    He had my vote.

    Time to roll out my ‘remote parliament’ idea again. Where MPs ‘sit’ in parliament from their local library via the interwebby thingy. Save a fortune on flights and keep parliamentarians nearer to their real constituents and less in the snare of their defacto constituents – political parties and lobbyists.

  28. Maybe it wasn’t so noticeable in the 2016 election because Turnbull was such an awful campaigner, but I have to say Bill Shorten’s election campaign performance thus far in this election is dreadful.

  29. Nostradamus @ #91 Thursday, April 18th, 2019 – 9:16 am

    “Breaking News; I just heard and saw someone from the ALP talking concisely, authoritatively confidently and fluently about Labor policy on Sky!!!!
    His name is Anthony Albanese….”

    Anthony Albanese, Leader of the Opposition 2019-2021

    Even Morrison knows he is a dead duck!

    But, you keep prattling on.

    Federal election underdog? “Of course we are. I don’t think that status is contested” – Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP speaking to 7NEWS political editor @Riley7News on a bus in northern Tasmania. https://7news.link/CesXFo #ausvotes #7NEWS

  30. Observer

    What you write is very true.

    I always dismiss as ignorant, anyone who uses universal propositions; “all baby boomers are ….”, “all Greens are ….” , “all Muslims are …… “, “all gays are …. “, “all men are …..” , “all aborigines are …. “.

    The language argument as to whether “all men are ….” is equivalent to “men are …. ” is a debate for another place and time. However I think the mindset leading to both forms of expression is exactly the same. Both are ignorant stereotyping.

    Stereotyping is of course what discrimination legislation addresses, but when they refer to “babyboomers are …..” as Confessions did earlier, the Dunning-Kruger effect is aggressively operative.

    I am a babyboomer. No complaints. I am satisfactorily self and pension financed in retirement. But it is only so because of the Hammock Dweller’s 2006 tax concessions that this is so.

    I lived with 5 sibs in a 3 room flat for my first decade, no car, no pocket money, a diet of various “stews”, school uniform my only “good” clothes till employed in school hols at 15 years, no “go away” holidays etc etc. All my friends were in the same boat.

    As an adult, saved for 10 years to buy a small weatherboard home. We were both workers, and for the first 5 or 6 years of marriage my whole salary went on the rent. Second hand furniture, no TV, later 15% interest on mortgage etc etc.

    We became empty nesters by late 40s and it was only at that stage that we began to have “savings” in the bank. As I said, no complaints. My parents did their absolute best, with a father who worked 7 days a week throughout.

    There were of course rich babyboomers when I was a kid. Quite a few but by no means the majority. I envied them riding past on a brand new Speedwell bike, the likes of which I never had.

    But it is pathetic to write here that babyboomers have exploited the world’s resources. That task has been performed by a section of every generation, every decade, every century.

    And I think most of them would have been Conservos all of their life.

  31. Hey Mundo,

    Still going through your ‘First Dog on the Moon’ moments?

    That particular edition of the cartoon should be banned.

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *