Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

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  1. I think that a Royal commission into Climate and Energy policy would be the go, with terms of reference broad enough to look into any dodgy dealings, manipulation and fake news being pushed by vested interests, especially the fossil fuel industry and miners but also the media. Shine some light in some very dark corners, turn over a few rocks and see what scurries out. Maybe it could shed some light on the whole Adani saga.

  2. mikehilliard @ #231 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    Media seem a bit rabid on Shorten. Just shows how desperate they are for a bad news story to bash Labor around with.

    I think he and Bowen handled the questions from the media quite well. I also believe it was important to point out that it was actually the Coalition who said before the last election that they wouldn’t change Super, and then did just that.

  3. A blow to the LNP

    “THE LNP’s election campaign has been dealt a blow with the High Court backing Queensland’s controversial developer donation ban.

    It means the LNP, or any Queensland-based political party, can’t raise money from developers for a Federal campaign……

    In a double blow for the LNP, Mr Spence as plaintiff was also ordered to pay costs of both parties in the court case.

    The full bench of the High Court, led by Chief Justice Susan Kiefel in orders handed down on Wednesday morning, found by majority that the developer donation ban did not “burden the implied freedom of political communication” of developers.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/high-court-backs-queenslands-developer-donation-ban/news-story/71a2967f224f83b8038b6450f2e7db92

  4. Upnorth @ #254 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:00 pm

    A blow to the LNP

    “THE LNP’s election campaign has been dealt a blow with the High Court backing Queensland’s controversial developer donation ban.

    It means the LNP, or any Queensland-based political party, can’t raise money from developers for a Federal campaign……

    In a double blow for the LNP, Mr Spence as plaintiff was also ordered to pay costs of both parties in the court case.

    The full bench of the High Court, led by Chief Justice Susan Kiefel in orders handed down on Wednesday morning, found by majority that the developer donation ban did not “burden the implied freedom of political communication” of developers.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/high-court-backs-queenslands-developer-donation-ban/news-story/71a2967f224f83b8038b6450f2e7db92

    Excellent news. Thanks.

  5. Barney, thanks. I want to be convinced. And I read that bit too, but the language is ambiguous.

    Candidates in the federal election will not be able to take developer donations in states that ban the practice

    Maybe accounting practices get tightened.

  6. Political donations to the major party duopoly has in effect stolen parliament from rank and file party members and voters in general.
    A Royal Commission into political donations would be a good thing.

  7. I don’t even know why Spence and the LNP took the Developer Donations Ban to the High Court. NSW has had one in place for almost a decade and it’s validity has already been affirmed by the courts, iirc.

  8. Late Riser @ #256 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:05 pm

    Barney, thanks. I want to be convinced. And I read that bit too, but the language is ambiguous.

    Candidates in the federal election will not be able to take developer donations in states that ban the practice

    Maybe accounting practices get tightened.

    So, the reporter on the ABC just said that this decision should put pressure on the Commonwealth government to reform its own laws in relation to these donations.

  9. @Scott

    A Coalition Primary vote of 38% might give them about 48% of the two party preferred vote and win as much as 65 seats (if the LNP can win Kennedy off Bob Katter). That sort of result will be portrayed as a victory of sorts for the Coalition and make them well placed to win back government in 2022. Also not to mention a Liberal Party which has been radicalized and heading gradually towards the alt-right path.

  10. Tristo @ #261 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    @Scott

    A Coalition Primary vote of 38% would give them about 48% of the two party preferred vote and win as much as 63 seats (if the LNP can win Kennedy off Bob Katter). That sort of result will be portrayed as a victory of sorts for the Coalition and make them well placed to win back government in 2022.

    Unless they are still promoting the sort of discriminatory policies that favour wealth creation, services starvation and environment destruction, that they are now.

  11. Trump predicts Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden will die in 2020: ‘May God rest their soul’

    President Donald Trump lashed out at former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on Tuesday night.

    Trump attempted to nickname the two Democratic Party frontrunners.

    “I believe it will be Crazy Bernie Sanders vs. Sleepy Joe Biden as the two finalists to run against maybe the best economy in the history of our country (and many other great things),” Trump tweeted.

    “I look forward to facing whoever it may be,” he claimed, despite trailing both in the polls.

    “May God rest their soul,” Trump cryptically added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/trump-predicts-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-will-die-2020-may-god-rest-soul/

  12. @C@tmomma

    Well despite all that the Coalition are currently polling in the high 30’s, I can’t see their primary vote going down much further, especially if One Nation support collapses.

  13. Oh, and here’s why Adani has to go ahead. Apart from creating 300,000 jobs, this “Liberal” wants to stop women in India from cooking with cow dung:

    The Coalition MP whose seat would house the controversial Adani coal mine said the project was necessary to stop women in India from being forced to cook with cow dung in poorly ventilated huts.

    Why does she want to destroy the Indian cow dung industry?

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/liberal-mp-backs-adani-mine-to-stop-women-having-to-cook-with-cow-dung-20190417-p51evv.html

  14. That was a good press conference by Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen. It was highly effective. Back on track IMO. Bowen also strongly turned the tables on Josh Frydenberg pointing out that the Liberal Party website has only four policies and the links don’t work.

    Rex. If Labor adopted the hard left platform you subscribe to, particularly on fiscal policy, the centre of the electorate would not vote for them in a pink fit.

  15. Most probably an unpopular opinion but I would rather have no political donations or gifts allowed……period.
    Pie in the sky stuff I know…..but how else do you stop donations for influence.? $1K-$10K+ for party fundraisers……you can’t tell me that guarantees or assurances are not given about policy direction.
    I don’t know what the answer is because the media are not fair and balanced in Aus and they will drive the agenda of their owners which is usually conservative and other voices get drowned out but something has to give eventually.

  16. F#cking Royal Commissions!!!

    We don’t need an RC into every little issue that pops up.

    In most cases an enquiry is sufficient.

    What we do need is a Government and Parliament willing to then act on the findings.

    I’ve lost count of the number of RCs Labor should supposedly call.

    Maybe we could have a Royal Commission into Royal Commissions!

  17. Charles @ #269 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    That was a good press conference by Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen. It was highly effective. Back on track IMO. Bowen also strongly turned the tables on Josh Frydenberg pointing out that the Liberal Party website has only four policies and the links don’t work.

    Rex. If Labor adopted the hard left platform you subscribe to, particularly on fiscal policy, the centre of the electorate would not vote for them in a pink fit.

    See, I’d substitute your ‘hard left’ for my ‘socially responsible’.

    So …”Rex. If Labor adopted the socially responsible platform you subscribe to, particularly on fiscal policy, the centre of the electorate would not vote for them in a pink fit.

    Now that says a lot about the so called ‘centre’.

  18. WRT the $4.5 billion allegedly stolen from the self-serve checkouts, can this self-assessment be accepted by the ATO a tax deduction? Anyone have a view ?

  19. Tristo @ #266 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    @C@tmomma

    Well despite all that the Coalition are currently polling in the high 30’s, I can’t see their primary vote going down much further, especially if One Nation support collapses.

    I’m referring to the 2022 election. You reckon you know for sure that the Coalition will be ‘polling in the high 30s’ then!?!

    Also, as far as this election is concerned, you may want to consult this page:

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics

    Have a look at the odds for WA(one of the States that the Coalition have put it about that they are more confident of hanging on to their seats in). They have the Coalition at $11; The Greens at $71; and Labor at $1.01.

    Even in Tasmania, where Morrison was campaigning today, Labor is at $1.33; the Coalition at $3; and The Greens at $61

    I could go on but do you get my drift?

  20. Labor is putting forward socially responsible policies. They are doing that and being fiscally responsible. The only economists that promote increasing deficits etc are on the fringe.

  21. Charles @ #276 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    Labor is putting forward socially responsible policies. They are doing that and being fiscally responsible. The only economists that promote increasing deficits etc are on the fringe.

    And, of course, Coalition go to economist, Warwick McKibbin, would say that Labor’s Renewable Energy target of 45% would cost the economy more than the Coalition’s target of 26%. However, again, Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen effectively binned that claim with evidence to the contrary.

  22. In order to lift the minimum wage to where it should be in order to keep up with average labour productivity growth since 1970, we should be lifting it from $18.93 per hour to $25 per hour.

    The last forty years have been marked by employment policy, fiscal policy, and financial sector rules that have redistributed income upwards.

    One of the best ways to fight inflation is to reduce the price-setting power of dominant firms through the judicious use anti-trust laws and public ownership of important firms.

    Another key way to fight inflation is to enact tight rules for the financial sector to prevent financial asset price bubbles.

    We shouldn’t be using unemployment, under-employment, and precarious employment as the main tool for controlling inflation.

  23. Rex

    So that’s what your endless complaints on here about Labor, Shorten and Bowen boil down to? Not raising Newstart? You may be pleased to know Bill Shorten has flagged that may be something they will announce later in the campaign.

  24. Self checkout makes a motsa for the grocery companies. If Woolies was concerned about the amount of items stolen, it would actually switch on the machines’ security features which weigh the scanned items. The fact they don’t tells you a lot (Coles do turn them on, for the record).

    The grocery companies and the IT/ hardware providers researched this stuff to death before bringing in self-checkout. Psychologically, I understand you are less likely by many orders of magnitude to steal from the front of a store than you are up the back of a store, as the perception at the front of store is you are being watched. Also, the mere presence of the lone staff member at the front with the self checkouts operates as a psychological deterrent.

    I have some insight into this owing to Mrs Burgey’s expertise in the field which, from an Australian POV, I would wager is more knowledgeable than basically anyone else’s.

    Put simply, they make so much more money out of self checkouts that, even if the quoted figure is accurate, it’s worth their while keeping them.

  25. Nicholas

    There is no way the minimum wage will be lifted to $25 an hour. That is way over the top and reckless. Something more moderate is in order.

  26. Charles @ #284 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:32 pm

    Rex

    So that’s what your endless complaints on here about Labor, Shorten and Bowen boil down to? Not raising Newstart? You may be pleased to know Bill Shorten has flagged that may be something they will announce later in the campaign.

    Charles, I like announcements, not aspirations.

    It’s not socially responsible to go the low road of personal income tax cuts when you can redirect that lost revenue instead to the states for even better infrastructure, public schools and hospitals.

    These neo-lib philosophies you peddle aren’t socially responsible.

  27. C@tmomma @ #281 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:31 pm

    And can the ABC stop calling modifications proposed by Labor to the Superannuation system, ‘Tax increases’!?!

    Nope. They’re complicit. It’s what Ita was installed for. A political party doesn’t override the advice of an independent selection panel to select someone who’s going to be less biased than the recommended candidate(s).

  28. If the developers’ donations were the only ones forbidden, I’d be pretty happy. That alone has distorted planning and development ever since white settlement.

  29. Charles says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 12:32 pm

    Rex

    So that’s what your endless complaints on here about Labor, Shorten and Bowen boil down to? Not raising Newstart? You may be pleased to know Bill Shorten has flagged that may be something they will announce later in the campaign.

    Bbbbbbut Charles, that’s not now and Rex wants it now!

    I’ve told him before that Shorten follows Poll BludgerTrack and takes great pleasure in doing what pisses Rex off the most. 🙂

  30. Rex
    I think it’s socially irresponsible to wave away the starving and destitute trying to survive on Newstart.

    Still unemployed are we Rex!.
    I wonder why you are here ALL day every day!.

  31. Shock jock Smith had some reporter called Jonathon Lee on his show. Lee is on the ALP bus and has been harassing Shorten, demanding a $ figure on the costs of mitigating global warming.

    Does anyone know who is Lee’s employer? Thanks.

  32. Jim Molan pulling out all the stops to try to retain his Senate seat. Senator Molan has been a significant player on parliamentary committees including the Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, which has scrutinised counter-terrorism, foreign interference and encryption legislation.

    He is totally the best on security because “I ran the war in Iraq for a year.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/jim-molan-goes-rogue-the-nsw-senator-mounting-a-conservative-insurgency-to-keep-his-seat-20190416-p51era.html

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