Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

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  1. Now, the results of a new SMS survey of 1000 voters are in and it reveals Bill Shorten is trusted by 30 per cent of voters while Mr Morrison is trusted by 32 per cent.

    But it’s voters aged under 24 who are the the most dissatisfied by the major parties and all politicians, with a massive 37.5 per cent stating ‘none of the above’ when questioned over who they think they could trust.

    If the Prime Minister can win the next election, seniors will be the key.

    Support for Mr Morrison is strongest among voters aged over 65. When asked if they trust the PM, 40 per cent of over 65s say they did.

    That compares with only one in three seniors – 33 per cent – who say they trust Mr Shorten.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/17/election-morrison-shorten-trust/

  2. meher baba @ #42 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 7:21 am

    c@tmomma: “When, in actual fact, the policy outlines a series of adjustments to the system but NO tax increases.”

    I think you’ll find that the High Income Super Contribution Tax is definitely a tax. As I understand it, people whose income (including employer contributions) exceeds the threshold ($250k) in a given year are then sent a bill by the ATO. It’s possible (I’m not sure) that they might be given the option of paying the bill directly or out of their accumulated super funds, but I don’t see how that means that lowering the threshold wouldn’t count as a “tax increase”.

    No, it’s lowering the threshold. Which is an adjustment. 🙂

  3. bug1 @ #49 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 7:25 am

    ltep, its still early, but this campaign doesnt seem to have much intensity yet to me.
    It could be that this goes like the Victorian election where voters sleepwalked through the campaign, then voted the way they had always intended to.
    I think we need to see undecided votes to give pollsters legitimacy at this stage.

    Voters are focussed on their Easter Hols and Anzac Day atm.

    That first debate on April 29 will see if anything is stirring underneath.

  4. bug1

    this campaign doesnt seem to have much intensity yet to me.

    And here comes the Easter break, which is more important for many different reasons.

  5. Support for Mr Morrison is strongest among voters aged over 65. When asked if they trust the PM, 40 per cent of over 65s say they did.

    That’s quite a substantial number of over 65s.

  6. I wonder what bullshit the Ruperts will deploy to cover the stench of mass spiv deaths (like MDB fish, only toothier) next Tuesday Wednesday? It’s an established pattern: “bad” Newspolls on Sunday night, several more (right) foot-shootings each Monday, the desperate deployment of whatever cover the GRASPers can find on Tuesday, the pyrites gleam of the News Corpse howler monkeys (and the gloom of the feckless concern trolls) – followed by the inevitable clank of another bit falling off ScuMo’s Clown Car.

    Follow the money. There is no fucking way for the IPA droogs to win, and Rupert’s vanity press loses everything next month. Yay.

  7. Re Shorten’s gaffe yesterday.

    That suite of superannuation measures has been on the Labor website for a very long time. I haven’t been able to work out exactly how long, but my recollection is that they predate Turnbull’s suite of superannuation changes which, inter alia, lowered the High Income Super Contribution tax threshold from $300k to $250k, lowered the non-concessional contribution cap from $180k to $100k and which put a tax-free ceiling on superannuation holdings of $1.6m.

    My recollection is that Labor supported these changes. I always wondered whether, having done that, Labor had then decided that it would no longer pursue its slightly harsher package of measures. But the measures remained on the Labor website, although neither Shorten, Bowen or any other Labor figure had mentioned them for several years. I had been thinking of asking my local Labor MP if in fact the measures were still part of Labor’s platform, but never got round to it.

    Shorten seems to have shared my uncertainty as to whether the measures were still current.

    Some smart aleck from HQ told the SMH yesterday that “the party’s policy had been public for a long time and Mr Shorten had made clear there were no other changes.” I reckon it might have been better for Labor to say that the policies were in fact dropped after Turnbull’s changes, and that the website hadn’t been updated. Although I accept that the situation is Hobson’s choice.

    The problem with this gaffe for Labor IMO is not so much that of another “no carbon tax under a government I lead” moment, but that it’s helping to put tax policy even more firmly at the centre of the election campaign, when I would have thought that Labor would want things like climate change, health, education and the Government’s overall shortcomings to be the main issues.

    Of course it’s possible that internal polling, etc. has told Labor that its tax policies are winning lots of support from aspirational voters in marginal seats, so that they are actually on the right track. We’ll find out soon enough.

  8. Adani doing its best to knock off a Labor victory.

    The head of Adani Australia has said he does not believe a Shorten government poses a risk to the company’s proposed Carmichael coal mine in central Queensland.

    Key points:
    *Adani Australia CEO Lucas Dow says Labor has given assurances it will not reject existing approvals if it wins government
    *LNP member for Capricornia Michelle Landry says Labor is not doing enough to support Adani
    *Capricornia Labor candidate Russell Robertson signed a pledge organised by the CFMEU mining union to support coal mining

    “I think [Federal Labor] has been crystal clear that if they are to form government they won’t be in the habit of creating sovereign risk by ripping up the existing approvals,” Adani Australia CEO Lucas Dow told 7.30.

  9. This election is feeling ugly. The desperates have gone early. They’ll be grasping for any whiff of polling success. North East Tasmania rules the world, racism, dirt files, homophobia and the wannabe gotcha moments.
    Everyone wins ladies and gentlemen. And then the reality.
    What an industry it has all become!
    Put it all on pay TV. Watch the game disappear!

  10. they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”

    In a choice between a HKer and someone from Taiwan, Mainlanders wouldn’t strongly lean either way.

    Liu is a HKer who can’t even speak Mandarin properly. Mainlanders would see Yang in a more positive light for that reason that alone.

    Add to that that Mainlanders tend to think HKers are arrogant and look down on them.

  11. meher

    Yesterday Labor’s finance spokesman insisted that the Labor super policy had been out for ‘months’, so that Shorten was right in saying there was no change.
    Is this a gaffe or a beatup? I suppose it’s a gaffe if it allows a beatup!

  12. An upside to a Dutton victory in Dickson.

    Antony GreenVerified account@AntonyGreenABC
    21h21 hours ago
    If Mr Dutton wins, there are 40 days after the return of the writ in which his eligibility can be challenged by the public.

  13. Such confidence. 😉

    Paul Barratt @phbarratt

    IPA urges Coalition MPs to sell the ABC

    What an election winning strategy the IPA has. All we need do is bring back Tony Abbott and Coalition rout is assured.

  14. Anyone but Nats.

    Jennifer Knop @merebone
    10m10 minutes ago

    We have two OEH registered in perpetuity conservation areas under threat from #InlandRail & #ARTC We fight hard alongside 100’s of other affected landholders. We are amongst many besieged by drought, water thieves,dodgy politicians and their bullshit fancy moves. #anyonebutnats

  15. When will solicitors learn that monies deposited in trust are not there to support their lavish lifestyle(?).

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/expensive-new-house-sparks-investigation-into-lawyer-20190411-p51d2p.html

    [‘… to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.]

    I can’t recall a time when Victoria could well decide a federal election. I don’t think they like Morrison, and Dutton’s completely on the nose, most likely for his interference in the state election, made all the worse by his inappropriate remark about Ms. Frances’ disability.

  16. Good Morning

    William writes

    The New South Wales result illustrates that the only player doing that sort of business out of the myriad minor parties of the right is One Nation, whose share of the vote was 6.9%.
    Even One Nation would likely fall short in New South Wales if the state upper house numbers were replicated at the federal election, the more likely result being three seats for the Coalition, two for Labor and one for the Greens.
    Indeed, the biggest winner out of fragmentation on the political right could prove to be its mortal enemies in the Greens, who will no longer suffer missing out with vote shares at or approaching double figures — as was known to happen in the past, when group voting tickets caused micro-party preferences to flow overwhelmingly to anyone but them.

    I really hope this is indeed the case as I want One Nation to be irrelevant and Labor and the Greens having the numbers is to my view vital to the progressive cause as Labor appears to me to be doing exactly what the LNP fears and taking a step to the left.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/04/16/leyonhjelm-fragmentation-problem-causing-cracks/

    ($)

  17. Seriously, haven’t we got our head around the fact that single seat polls are click bait and nothing else?

    In the lead up to every election that I can remember for the last twenty years (before that I wasn’t paying attention) there’s been single seat polls released which suggest results counter to the state or federal polling.

    Various posters then rend their garments, proclaiming ‘game over’, and we spend countless pages discussing whether or not these polls have any significance.

    (Hint: they don’t).

    Yes, there will be seats which go against the tide – seats which swing dramatically to the winning party, seats which swing against, seats which barely swing at all – but history tells us that whoever is leading in the ‘normal’ polls the day before the election will gain enough seats to govern.

    Individual seat polls are, if anything, becoming less reliable, due to the decrease of landlines.

  18. ‘But it’s voters aged under 24 who are the the most dissatisfied by the major parties and all politicians, with a massive 37.5 per cent stating ‘none of the above’ when questioned over who they think they could trust.’

    Voters under 24 are not interested in politics and (as a demographic) rarely have been. When my son visits from Melbourne, one of the questions he asks me is for a brief rundown of what’s happened politically since we last met. It has to be a major event for it to register with him normally.

    So they’re not dissatisfied, they just don’t know.

  19. @Arthur Plottier
    Greed has brought Bupa to a new low. Kick them out of the country. Set an example that this is not tolerated.
    Bupa Aged Care faces ACCC action over alleged false claims at aged care centres abc.net.au/news/2019-04-1… via @ABCNews

    @Chris Bowen:

    Pretty desperate stuff from a Treasurer Josh. We’ve updated the website – that’s it. Any information on your $40 billion of school and hospitals cuts to pay for your high end tax cuts?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/07/trump-islamophobia-ilhan-omar-alexandria-ocasio-cortez

  20. Zoomster

    Someone on twitter posted that they got robopolled on Rob Oakshotts seat. The person said they knew from looking up the candidates. Lives in Sydney.

  21. That survey yet again shows what a blight Boomers are on everything – the polity, the economy, the environment. Everything they touch is selfish, narrow-minded poison. Now trusting Morrison, a bloke who a few short months ago gave the Judas Kiss to a sitting PM.

  22. Burgey @ #78 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 6:08 am

    That survey yet again shows what a blight Boomers are on everything – the polity, the economy, the environment. Everything they touch is selfish, narrow-minded poison. Now trusting Morrison, a bloke who a few short months ago gave the Judas Kiss to a sitting PM.

    Not all Boomers. My baby boomer mother is volunteering for GetUp again this election, phone banking in Dickson with the hope of tossing out the regressive Peter Dutton.

  23. Oh and the GetUp seat polling I have mentioned about Warringah they use just to say Abbott is vulnerable. Not to say he will lose. Which gives you the sense they have in not relying on the reliability of individual seat polling due to margin of error.

    Of course thats indicative of a massive swing against the hard right. I think William’s article in Crikey tells us more as it actually relies on election results.

  24. The media has once again exposed their stupidity in thinking by attacking Labor, for taxing those having over $200000 is going to give the libs/Nats support who attacks those who have less than $100000

  25. Burger, I’m a boomer, I don’t trust Scrotum, I have been a union member and elected representative for 40 years and will retire on the back of my superannuation without a need for a pension. I was a chalk-face teacher who didn’t climb the greasy pole of aspiration.
    Yes, travel around the Grey Gypsy tracks and there are people a-plenty with a very different view on entitlement, but please don’t call me a blight on the country.

  26. In peak “Boomer time” Australia had the Hawke Keating government not the Thatcher or Reagan government.

    There is lazy journalism and denial going around because of the death of neo liberalism.

    Just saying.

  27. GG

    That reflects what the ABC is saying. They report the LNP stuff of course but they do say that its Victoria that has Labor winning even if they do win the hoped for seats in Tasmania.

  28. Look at you all, you’re as bad as the “Not all men” imbo’s.

    There has never been a more selfish, entitled generation than Boomers. It’s just a simple fact. Gifted everything by their parents and growing into adulthood in an era where you could buy a home for tuppence ha’penny, had free health care, were given a superannuation system to get them off the subsistence pension, got a free uni education. And now they now want to stop their own kids and grandkids from having the same opportunities while grabbing their sixth investment property and voting against anyone who dares suggest they’ve had it too easy for too long.

    A strong case for compulsory, age-based euthanasia to be honest.

  29. Cheryl Kernot @cheryl_kernot
    2m2 minutes ago

    Good interview with @GetUp on @RNBreakfast. Look forward to the next one probing funding history as the main item with any IPA guest.

    Seen any flying pigs lately?

  30. Burgey

    I am not a boomer. I get all that you are talking about and they are no worse than previous generations.
    The only thing they have done is embrace neo liberalism and left the next generation worse off.

    Thats why I made the point about Australia. Even in that era Australia was still one of the fairest countries to live in. Its just a pity we did not do as Scandinavia did and avoid the neo liberalism Greed is Good there is no society philosophy of the Voodoo Economy

  31. The Kouk makes a good point re costings over the long term.

    Stephen Koukoulas

    Verified account

    @TheKouk
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    The efforts to get politicians, of both stripes, to confirm pin-point costings for policies that will impact over 4, let alone 10, years is pedantry gone crazy. So what if cost of policy XYZ is $35 or $45 billion over a decade? Is the policy right? #AusVotes2019

  32. ‘But it’s voters aged under 24 who are the the most dissatisfied by the major parties and all politicians, with a massive 37.5 per cent stating ‘none of the above’ when questioned over who they think they could trust.’
    —————-
    People under 254 do not trust people over 24 and they never have.

  33. Goll says:

    This election is feeling ugly.

    How vicious, dirty and nasty Scrott’s fight to get his paws on pre-selection in the first place would be a hint as to how low he will be prepared to go.

  34. Shout out to the Indonesian Presidential elections today, where voters will choose between
    A) continuing to be one of the most democratic countries in Asia or
    B) dashing headlong down the path of theocratic authoritarianism spearheaded by a Trumpian figure who claims religious authority but transparently obviously has none.

    Yeah you can put me in the #JokowiDuaPeriode camp.

    Oh Also, did William get that javascript help he needed? I tried to send an email but bigpond rejected it.

  35. Burgey @ #88 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 8:24 am

    Look at you all, you’re as bad as the “Not all men” imbo’s.

    There has never been a more selfish, entitled generation than Boomers. It’s just a simple fact. Gifted everything by their parents and growing into adulthood in an era where you could buy a home for tuppence ha’penny, had free health care, were given a superannuation system to get them off the subsistence pension, got a free uni education. And now they now want to stop their own kids and grandkids from having the same opportunities while grabbing their sixth investment property and voting against anyone who dares suggest they’ve had it too easy for too long.

    A strong case for compulsory, age-based euthanasia to be honest.

    Whoa there pardner. Hold it ❗ Settle down. There will be peace in our time.
    Medication not working ❓ Whatsup baby ❓

    I’m from the silent generation. While some of what you mention so vigorously may be true of some – it is certainly not true of most.

    “Beware of generalisations” he shouted at the moon in a fit of rage brought on by a bad batch of second best mothers ruin.

    Settle ❗ Settle ❗ Calm ❗ There now – all is well.

    Good morning. ☮💊 😷😇

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