Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

  1. WeWantPaul
    says:
    Why do i suspect that the RFFWU is like joining Scientology but more expensive and less fun?
    ______________________________
    I dunno. But they are backing a series of lawsuits on back pay and doing their best to give supermarket and fast food workers decent pay and conditions.

  2. “Labor haven’t forgotten. It’s why they will never do it again.”

    So Labor is disowning the Gillard government now. I knew the Rudd vs Gillard divide was bad but gee whiz.

    Let’s stay in Canberra but fast forward from 2010 to 2016 then shall we?


    Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry, Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, Chief Minister Andrew Barr, and Greens MLA Caroline Le Couteur at the Legislative Assembly.

    Never say never again.

  3. I dunno. But they are backing a series of lawsuits on back pay and doing their best to give supermarket and fast food workers decent pay and conditions.

    Which coming from 90% of posters to pollbludger (estimated statistic from when Ozpolitics dumped us here decades ago) would be a wonderful and noble thing, and I’m no lover of the SDA, I believe the time I sat next to the WA State Secretary the person who is still the number one politician I’ve actually spent time with and got to know asked why I was sitting with ‘evil incarnate’ and my answer was ‘he sat next to me’. So not a big SDA fan, but still if you are plugging this other mob, are they are branch of the IPA or even stupider and / or more evil than them, cos lets face it the batshit crazy stuff the IPA released today was right up your alley, only less evil and more sensible.

  4. Confessions @ #727 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 8:36 pm

    Puffy:

    Ironically we had a much better scheme in WA before the state joined the NDIS. All I’ve seen since we joined the NDIS is the proliferation of more service providers, and not much better care provided to people.

    I find it ironic that there are carers whining about having to pay increased rates for public holiday overnight respite gigs when carers in parts of the country like here can’t even get a night off on a normal weekend.

    I understand. If these funds were administered differently, you would be getting respite care. It is a massive fail and raid by the spivs. imho.

  5. “Maybe they look across at the Coalition and wish the Greens would behave more like the Nats ”

    Of course Greens voters preference ALP more strongly than Nat voters preference Lib, so perhaps they should not so wish.

  6. “Destroying two decent PMs at once was slightly more than irritating to say the least. ”

    This is tedious beyond belief, but anyone in 2019 who thinks that the RGR catastrophe was somehow caused by the Greens and not at all caused by ALP internal dysfunction needs their head read.

  7. Of course the SDA are not all bad. By screwing the workers in EBA’s the companies sign up the workers for the SDA to use at Conference, which they then translate into seats for union officials. At least some are getting a good job! Ultimately enabling Tony Burke the money and leisure time to learn musical instruments.

  8. No particularly technical PB threads yet, so I’ll check you all later.

    Jacinda Ardern has a political environment where she can deal with the Greens as a cognate political bloc, sometimes to be agreed with, sometimes not, but never needing existential angst either way. I look forward to those times in Australia. Electoral systems affect political behaviour.

  9. This is tedious beyond belief, but anyone in 2019 who thinks that the RGR catastrophe was somehow caused by the Greens and not at all caused by ALP internal dysfunction needs their head read.

    I tend to agree with this, the greens did ally themselves with the Abbott LNP to destroy public support for a climate price from close to 80% to less than 50% dooming us to the 10 plus years of idiocy since, but whether you are a Gillardista (who thinks the installation of Rudd as opp leader in the first place was batshit crazy) or a Ruddista (who thinks the installation of Gillard to replace him was batshit crazy) or a complete idiot who supported either Rudd or Gillard without ever being smart enough to identify where it all went so wrong, there is no foundation for blaming the greens for the insanity.

  10. Looks like a very sleazy Dirt Unit special from the Liberal Party using Captain GetUp as their front:

    Conservative lobby group makes police complaint of death threat against ‘unmasked’ Captain GetUp

    Now the ‘death threat’ came from ‘an anonymous Twitter account. That’s suspicious.
    And a screen shot of the ‘death threat’ has been conveniently provided to Jacqueline Maley so she can work up a story about it on behalf of Advance Australia.

    However, some things about the story don’t gel with me, or with reality.

    Firstly, they already know the identity of someone from the Labor Party (natch) who has said and done some supposedly reprehensible things to Captain GetUp. Apparently the guy is the one who did the digging to unmask Captain GetUp.

    However, what is really weird is that this guy is also supposed to have done this:

    The Labor man said he spoke to Ms Steggall on Tuesday, who said that she didn’t want any information about Captain GetUp “because she wanted to run a positive campaign”.

    He is identified elsewhere in the article as being a Victorian, a friend of Shireen Morris, the Labor candidate in Michael Sukkar’s seat of Deakin. Hmm, funny how Machiavellian Michael Sukkar’s name pops up in this story as well.

    So, this random ‘Labor man’ from Victoria must have spoken to Zali Steggall by phone and not in person. How did he get her personal phone number!?! Doesn’t seem possible.

    However, there is also the fact that the whole death threat text message scenario doesn’t stand up to scrutiny either.

    The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has seen a screenshot of a tweet from an anonymous Twitter account that reads: “Got banned for threatening to kill Captain GetUp, I regret nothing.”

    However, no corroborating proof of it existing and reaching Captain GetUp can be provided by Advance Australia:

    However, Advance Australia has no record of the death threat the tweet refers to.

    But they have:

    “Today, Advance Australia has contacted the Queensland Police about death and other threats made against a staff member of Advance Australia who is currently working as Captain GetUp,” Advance Australia national director Gerard Benedet said.

    How convenienment for them. They cannot provide proof but have referred it to the Qld Police anyway and generated an Anti Labor story out of it, conveniently dropped in the lap of Jacqueline Maley.

    I think Advance Australia, Captain GetUp and the Liberal Party have questions to answer about this.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/conservative-lobby-group-makes-police-complaint-of-death-threat-against-unmasked-captain-getup-20190417-p51f2p.html

  11. WWP, I hear that the Retail and fast foodies were started by a young fella who is a passionate lefty. “Branch of the IPA”? Paranoid much?

  12. Captain GetUp is played by a Columbian?

    Don’t we have unemployed pathetic actors who suck big time who are Australian?

    And isn’t one of the points the good Captain is supposedly making about foreign interference in Australian politics?

  13. Puffy:

    I understand. If these funds were administered differently, you would be getting respite care. It is a massive fail and raid by the spivs. imho.

    It may be partly about how funds are administered (I really don’t know), but I’d suggest it’s mostly about the fact that the NDIS has not been funded to levels intended to meet demand.

    We saw in the wake of the Morrison govt budget reports that they’d robbed the NDIS in order to deliver tax cuts to wealthy Australians. I’d suggest that is the reason service providers are having to increase fees for their consumers.

  14. And isn’t one of the points the good Captain is supposedly making about foreign interference in Australian politics?
    As a fellow foreigner, maybe Murdoch reccomended him.

  15. WWP, I hear that the Retail and fast foodies were started by a young fella who is a passionate lefty. “Branch of the IPA”? Paranoid much?

    No I’ve previously read Nath’s posts.

  16. zoomster:

    Apparently, as reported yesterday.

    Now, 10 daily can reveal the character inside the superhero suit is a Colombian YouTube video creator and former employee of a Sydney real estate agent.

    “Colombian in Australia,” a translation of the description on his YouTube page — written in Spanish — reads.

    “Ugly and poor, but I’m good people.”

    “Hi, I make YOUTUBE videos in SPANGLISH,” the bio on his Facebook page reads.

    https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a190416yck/captain-getup-is-actually-a-colombian-youtuber-20190416

    If anything, it would explain that accent in his videos. I’d figured it was Asian, but apparently it’s ‘Spanglish’. 🙂

  17. https://m.facebook.com/RAFFWU/

    https://www.raffwu.org.au

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_and_Fast_Food_Workers_Union

    Formed in late 2016, RAFFWU was established as a response to increased dissatisfaction with the existing Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association (SDA). The union is critical of a number of aspects of the SDA, which covers the same industries as RAFFWU and one of the largest trade unions in the country. Some of these practices include the negotiation of workplace agreements which reduced wages below Award rates,[1] the former’s ongoing affiliation with the Labor Right faction, its socially conservative stances towards abortion[2] and same-sex marriage,[3] [4] [5] [6] as well as its perceived “undemocratic” and “top-down” nature.

    RAFFWU instead claims to be “member-driven”, “fighting discrimination in all its forms”. RAFFWU is considered a left-wing union. Its inaugural Secretary is Josh Cullinan, who has over 15 years’ experience with unionism and worker representation.

  18. WeWantPaul
    says:
    , but still if you are plugging this other mob, are they are branch of the IPA or even stupider and / or more evil than them, cos lets face it the batshit crazy stuff the IPA released today was right up your alley, only less evil and more sensible.
    ___________________________
    I had no idea how evil I appeared.

  19. It may be partly about how funds are administered (I really don’t know), but I’d suggest it’s mostly about the fact that the NDIS has not been funded to levels intended to meet demand.

    My personal experience with the NDIS, and the unanimous experience of the NDIS from people I’ve door knocked in political campaigns and have had the NDIS raised by them is poor. We eventually after a lot of just lazy bad management delay, got funding for one particular aspect (would never ever have got to the top of our list) of the symptoms of the issue our loved one was facing, but it is very much into a for profit organisation, that is very keen on profiting.

  20. I had no idea how evil I appeared.

    No that is pretty much how it often works. Turnbull probably did, Abbott was a true (batshit crazy) believer, Morrison just has no idea at all about anything.

  21. WWP

    I have posted before about RAFFWU. Gees, I must be an IPA shill too then. I have been accused of many things over the years by posters here but that would be a first lol

  22. RAFFWU instead claims to be “member-driven”, “fighting discrimination in all its forms”. RAFFWU is considered a left-wing union. Its inaugural Secretary is Josh Cullinan, who has over 15 years’ experience with unionism and worker representation.

    So Nath’s support comes from ‘an enemy of my enemy’ place, rather than ‘my friends’, my bad.

  23. I have posted before about RAFFWU. Gees, I must be an IPA shill too then. I have been accused of many things over the years by posters here but that would be a first lol

    It certainly wouldn’t be the first time you’d got the wrong end of a sword another poster hadn’t even picked up, but if it makes your martyr thing feel good, I’m glad I helped.

  24. https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/what-do-young-people-care-about-this-election/11027018

    At 18 years of age, did you pay attention to elections and what politicians got up to on the hustings?

    Well, turns out most millenials are showing an interested in this election, according to a survey released today by Triple J.

    14, 000 young people aged between 18 and 29 took part in the survey, which revealed the environment & climate change to be their biggest issue.

    Guest: Shalailah Medhora, political reporter, Triple J Hack.

  25. Pegasus @ #786 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 9:57 pm

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/what-do-young-people-care-about-this-election/11027018

    At 18 years of age, did you pay attention to elections and what politicians got up to on the hustings?

    Well, turns out most millenials are showing an interested in this election, according to a survey released today by Triple J.

    14, 000 young people aged between 18 and 29 took part in the survey, which revealed the environment & climate change to be their biggest issue.

    Guest: Shalailah Medhora, political reporter, Triple J Hack.

    No shit, Sherlock.

  26. Oh, I’ll say one more thing before I go:

    As a Greens supporter in Cooper, if the placard hosting is any sign of enthusiasm, then Ged is going to be reelected with something like a double-digit margin.

  27. WWP

    Just amused lol. A daily occurrence here is for individuals to jump in boots and all without doing the most basic research. Pavlov’s dogs.

  28. WWP. I don’t know why you’re so dead against the IPA. They are counting on Shorten to implement their policies. Cautiously and surreptitiously of course. 🙂

    Shorten was educated at the Jesuit Catholic school, Xavier College, in Melbourne, where he met John Roskam. Roskam chose his old mate to be the best man at his wedding.

    John Roskam is now the Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank which rails against much of the collectivist ideologies espoused by the union movement. But John Roskam is a big fan of Bill Shorten’s policies.

    JOHN ROSKAM: What Bill is going to do is going to bring fresh new ideas recognising that Australia’s productivity is based on jobs, it’s based on lower taxes, it’s based on productive partnerships, and he’s not going to be caught up in the Howard-hating of the Labor Party which seems to have just bedevilled its policies for the last 10 years.

    https://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1580665.htm

  29. nath’s Bill Shorten Dirt File

    It’s called Google. You type in a search term like ‘Shorten’
    and another like “IPA” or “Roskam”.

    Pretty Standard Really.

  30. “A daily occurrence here is for individuals to jump in boots and all without doing the most basic research” Or indeed without bothering to properly read the post they’re responding to, Peg. Some seem to think it’s compulsory.

  31. I never thought I’d say this, but in hindsight My Way was a better option than Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison’s NDIS.

    It is an idea I’ve only just started cooking, so it is more stir fry just on the heat, than complex stew of perfection (on a scale where raw is bad and you are looking for the perfect stew as good) but the right / far right have been most effective over the last 40 years in taking what is essentially good and making it bad.

    I was listening to the crooked media / Obama brovers contemplate a system of universal healthcare that works well (medicare works pretty well but we probably fail to appreciate just how bad howards add on private stuff was and how far that drags us from best in class, but I disgress) and they are just innately terrified of the idea that Govt can do some things really really well. In the discussion, one of their many pods over the last couple of weeks, they did kind of weave and waffle towards to point and improved from their starting position which was ‘way too scared to move’. But at heart was the fundamental idea that in the US the voters will ultimately choose to accept that for profit corporations will always do a fundamentally better job than the same task done by a govt body.

    And my stew conclusion, still at the barely warmed stir fry start, is that you are going to have to win the argument that there are somethings that Govt do actually just do better, not perfect by 1000 miles but better. If you are too cowardly to even start that debate you are going to lose to the Trump end of capitalism (stupid, lazy, monopolistic, succeeding without merit or effort) every every time.

    For the record I’m on the Warren side of this debate where the kind of capitalism that allows monopolies, monopolistic behaviour, rent seeking, and the rich idiots like Trump to to thrive or even just survive, is just a perverted bad from of capitalism from the start.

  32. Just amused lol. A daily occurrence here is for individuals to jump in boots and all without doing the most basic research. Pavlov’s dogs.</blockquote
    have a lovely day …

  33. C@tmomma
    says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 10:02 pm
    See what I mean? A 2006 article from nath’s Bill Shorten Dirt File is supposed to prove something.
    _________________________
    Well Shorten has been on the record about lowering company tax, which they facilitated with Turnbull recently for lower earning companies. My bet is that Bill will be more inclined for further tax cuts for bigger companies once he’s ensconced in office. We will judge it as it comes along. But we all know that Shorten is no social democrat, he’s a corporatist at heart and given the opportunity he will head in that direction.

  34. ABC News is updating the Indonesian election

    The good news is not only did President Joko win he did so very clearly.
    Final results not expected until May. Its an increased margin compared to the 2014 one.

    So good news. The ABC is using the phrase resounding victory

    Edit: Immediate significance for Australia is Free Trade Deal more likely to be ratified.

  35. https://grattan.edu.au/report/commonwealth-orange-book-2019/

    Commonwealth Orange Book 2019: Policy priorities for the federal government by John Daley, Peter Goss, Stephen Duckett, Andrew Norton, Marion Terrill, Danielle Wood, Tony Wood and Brendan Coates

    The winner of the 2019 federal election should defy the national mood of reform fatigue and stare down vested interests to pursue a targeted policy agenda to improve the lives of Australians, according to a new book from the Grattan Institute.

    The Commonwealth Orange Book rates Australia’s performance against similar countries and proposes policy reforms to schools and universities, hospitals and housing, roads and railways, cities and regions, budgets and taxes, retirement incomes and climate change.

    https://theconversation.com/grattan-orange-book-what-the-election-should-be-about-priorities-for-the-next-government-115563

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