Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

  1. Confessions @ #662 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 6:46 pm

    lizzie @ #657 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 5:14 pm

    Denise Allan
    Just talking with a foster mum who cares for a severely disabled boy…wanting respite for Anzac day night…$2400!! For one night! $1400 per night normal night! Out of his NDIS package. Someone is making a killing out of the NDIS. @LindaBurneyMP #auspol #MSM #NDIS

    Public holiday rates?

    roflmao. the grunts at the bottom of the pyramid are not getting the bulk of the money,I assure you.

  2. To add some clarity, Dutton was marshalling numbers against Turnbull from whenever

    Whilst those numbers were being marshalled, others were marshalling to beat BOTH Turnbull AND Dutton

    And that is what we have today

    Whilst Sukkar was dining out, celebrating his elevation from Assistant Treasurer to Treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader, the anti Turnbull AND Dutton forces were continuing to Marshall the numbers

    Hence Ad Man from Mad Men’s Cabinet, where Frydenberg is and the inclusion of Abbott supporters

    The politics within the Liberal Party is something to behold – as will be the pay backs after a loss in this election

    It is toxic – including among the Party elders who do not acknowledge each other when dining at the same Restaurant

    One interesting aside is that both Abbott and Turnbull led governments following elections (as did both Rudd and Gillard)

    The odd one out (excuse the pun) is Ad Man from Mad Men

    And that tells its own story

    Ad Man from Mad Men did not come to the leadership by accident – the numbers were worked, firstly against Turnbull then against Dutton

    And Frydenberg is his treasurer and Deputy Party Leader

    So join the dots

    The Get Up guy is spot on from the information provided to me

    Currently Ad Man from Mad Men does not have the numbers in the Party Room which is fractured and feral

    Hence Abbott putting his name up

  3. roflmao. the grunts at the bottom of the pyramid are not getting the bulk of the money,I assure you.

    I haven’t suggested they were.

  4. Observer @ #4216 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 8:13 pm

    To add some clarity, Dutton was marshalling numbers against Turnbull from whenever

    Whilst those numbers were being marshalled, others were marshalling to beat BOTH Turnbull AND Dutton

    And that is what we have today

    Whilst Sukkar was dining out, celebrating his elevation from Assistant Treasurer to Treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader, the anti Turnbull AND Dutton forces were continuing to Marshall the numbers

    Hence Ad Man from Mad Men’s Cabinet, where Frydenberg is and the inclusion of Abbott supporters

    The politics within the Liberal Party is something to behold – as will be the pay backs after a loss in this election

    It is toxic – including among the Party elders who do not acknowledge each other when dining at the same Restaurant

    One interesting aside is that both Abbott and Turnbull led governments following elections (as did both Rudd and Gillard)

    The odd one out (excuse the pun) is Ad Man from Mad Men

    And that tells its own story

    Ad Man from Mad Men did not come to the leadership by accident – the numbers were worked, firstly against Turnbull then against Dutton

    And Frydenberg is his treasurer and Deputy Party Leader

    So join the dots

    The Get Up guy is spot on from the information provided to me

    Currently Ad Man from Mad Men does not have the numbers in the Party Room which is fractured and feral

    Hence Abbott putting his name up

    Agreed Observer. The unhinged ferocity of the attack on the GetUp director (and the hysteria of the Waynebot and clones) point to Frydenberg as the weak link. Can’t see any other Nazgul surviving to rule the shattered remains of the GRASPers after May 18th’s Red Wedding. That the Institute of Paid Advocacy has published Rupert’s requirements now is interesting too – I suspect that Newspoll won’t be in the field over Easter.

  5. @Firefly:

    “The Greens will push Labor to back key parts of its new environment strategy – including a $2bn nature fund – in exchange for crucial support of the opposition’s climate change policy in the Senate.

    Flagging the party’s readiness to negotiate over energy policy if Labor wins the election, the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the party was not afraid to use its numbers on the crossbench to extract stronger commitments from Bill Shorten on the environment.”

    More: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/17/greens-propose-supporting-labor-climate-policy-in-environment-deal

    Good! Australia needs the Greens to ensure that Labor takes meaningful and serious action to protect the environment and tackle climate change. We’ll negotiate to make sure that we get the best outcome possible. A vote for the Greens is a vote for the environment.”

    Prime Minister Bill Shorten negotiating with the Greens after the election:

    https://youtu.be/qynydbBpqy4

  6. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-17/federal-election-getup-targets-christian-porter-seat-of-pearce/11024768

    Left-wing activist group GetUp! is making its first serious foray into West Australian politics, planning a deluge of phone calls in its bid to unseat Attorney-General Christian Porter.

    GetUp!, which has long advocated progressive causes and targeted conservative MPs in other states, said it was hoping to make 180,000 phone calls in Mr Porter’s marginal electorate of Pearce to tilt that campaign against the Liberals.

  7. Tricot
    says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 7:46 pm
    Hey nath…………..pot and kettle cobber…………………The word “obsession” coming from you is a surprise. I thought harping would fit your persona so much better as you do to on and on………………. As I mentioned earlier – time to opt out of here for as the more ghoulies, ghosties, nutters and have time to talk to one another.
    _____________________________
    I may target Shorten but at least he’s a worthy target. what’s poor Fran done to anyone?

  8. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/17/former-nauru-president-regrets-signing-offshore-processing-deal-with-julia-gillard

    The former president of Nauru has said he regrets signing a deal with Julia Gillard to establish offshore processing on his island almost six years ago, which he said led to refugee deaths in the detention centre.

    Sprent Dabwido is in Australia, having sought asylum himself to receive treatment for terminal cancer. He told Ten’s the Project he had been given just days or weeks to live.

  9. Fessdi
    No aspersions on you, but on the providers in Aged/Disability care. I read somewhere that the same shonks in the nursing home business were eyeing up the NDIS for a good slice of public dough. Providers usually charge packages at least double the wage of the carer, more on public holidays. That is even after workplace bargaining that reduces penalty rates and/or times they apply.

    One provider has overtime rates of 1.5 of normal time from 12 am Saturday to 12 am Monday night. But they charge the NDIS normal overtime rates for those shifts, doubled. The normal rate is about $26.50 an hour. I am not sure what overnight rates are, but they are divided into passive/active. If the carer is asleep it is passive. If they have to get up to do stuff that is paid at a higher rate. I have never done it so I do not know how it is worked out. Fair enough, being paid less to sleep is fine. But how all that ends up at $2,400 a night in a way that does not include Ned Kelly accounting I do not know.

  10. Captain Getup: What are the odds that the people behind this character have actually taken most of the money for thremselves (“creative fees”) and spent only a fraction of the Advance Australia money on its intended purpose?

  11. Bad news from Alberta. The social-democrat New Democratic Party government of Rachel Notley has been swept out after one term by the provincial Tories.

    Guess what was one of the major issues: a carbon tax.

    This is bad news for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals who go to the Canadian people in November and is now trailing in the polls.

    Looks like conservatism is sweeping the world.

    The Conservative win in”Canada’s Texas” follows the election last year of a Trumpian Tory government in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province.

    Guess what the oafish Premier Doug Ford came up with last week. His review of “unnecessary” medical procedures decided that you didn’t need an anaesthetist for a colonoscopy. Some have suggested that Ford undergo the procedure to show that it was safe. This bright idea lasted about 48 hours.

    As an Australian anaesthetist friend of mine remarked when I told him that they reversed that decision: “Did someone die?”

    But Ford knows something about drugs. His equally buffoonish brother Rob was a drug addict who became Mayor of Toronto before his death a couple of years ago.

    Progressives in Canada labor under a voluntary, first past the post electoral system. If they had compulsory, preferential voting, the combined Liberal and NDP vote would ensure that the Tory loons would have a hard time of it. As it is, the Tories under Stephen Harper gained a majority federal government in 2011 with about 25 per cent of eligible voters.

    Thank goodness Bill Shorten and his team will reverse the trend later this month.

  12. E. G. Theodore @ #715 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 6:41 pm

    Captain Getup: What are the odds that the people behind this character have actually taken most of the money for thremselves (“creative fees”) and spent only a fraction of the Advance Australia money on its intended purpose?

    The odds would be pretty high considering reports yesterday the person inside the Capt GetUp suit is a travelling Colombian on a tourist visa who scripts his own stuff, and not a professional.

  13. Fess,
    The aged care and NDIS money is not going far enough, including into regions, in my opinion, is the rorting of the system and an industry standard of taking the bulk of the money for administration and leaving about 30% for services which are charged at a 100% mark up.

    The end result is that just 15% of the package actually goes to the workers who provide the service.

    So for a $50,000 aged care package just $7, 500 goes to care workers.

    Let’s say an elderly person gets a package worth $35,000. After paying $24,500 for the provider to administer the package, the rest is left for equipment and to pay carers (at double the rate the carers are actually paid). $9,500. How much is a medical bed, $3k? or various mobility aids, the cost of a nurse to come out every day, carers to do showering etc, cleaners?

    Without the equipment that is going to fund about 7 to 10 hours of care a week, weekdays.

    If this scheme was designed for the clients and not for providers to rip off the gov’t then there would be respite in regional areas, and people would not be sitting in their own urine for hours waiting for the carer to come for their one hour shift in the evening.

    Sorry my anger is rising. The money is there to fund everyone, the clients do not get it and that is why there is a year or two wait for an aged care package. NDIS I cannot see as any better.

  14. “Thank goodness Bill Shorten and his team will reverse the trend later this month.”

    Shorten is more of a Clinton style candidate. In other words, people will vote for him simply because he’s not as bad as the alternative. He’s far from being a Sanders or Corbyn type leader. To get there, the ALP would need to undergo a transformation away from being dominated by the Right Faction. Shorten is not what Australia really needs, but he’ll do for now simply because we so desperately need to rid ourselves of this terrible Coalition government. This is all the more reason to ensure there is a strong Greens presence in the parliament to keep Labor from drifting further to the right.

    More broadly, conservatism is starting to decline. Trump was their high point. As people have seen what a disaster he has been, along with the total cluster you know what known as Brexit, people are beginning to recoil in horror at the thought of being lead by a conservative far right government. The tide is indeed turning.

  15. Beguiled – it’s a pendulum thing, I think.

    It swings left, then swings right because the vested interests get greedy, and then the people start to balk and it swings left again.

    The thing at the moment is that those swings have bred more extreme types … whether that is a result of society in general or a driver of it, is probably impossible to say.

    It’s like the media issue: is media degenerating because of social media? Or did media’s ‘dropping the ball on integrity and analysis’ cause the amplification of extreme social media?

  16. Puffy:

    Ironically we had a much better scheme in WA before the state joined the NDIS. All I’ve seen since we joined the NDIS is the proliferation of more service providers, and not much better care provided to people.

    I find it ironic that there are carers whining about having to pay increased rates for public holiday overnight respite gigs when carers in parts of the country like here can’t even get a night off on a normal weekend.

  17. I suspect the degeneration of the NDIS is because the poisonous Coalition was in charge of getting it running.

    Just like the #nbn, they organised the profiteering and neglected the purpose.

    IOW – they’ve stuffed both!

  18. One significant issue being lost in all the gotchas is do people really want to reward the Liberal Party for rolling Malcom Turnbull? The aim was to slide the party to the right. Hasn’t ended up as far right as some wanted, yet, but far enough.

    The media might be avoiding the issue but the electorate won’t.

  19. ‘How quickly Labor forget…’

    Quite the contrary. Labor remembers. It’s why they won’t go there again.

    Sort of like both majors reaction to spending time in government with the Greens in Tasmania….

  20. Tricot @ #636 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    Fran Kelly has been a protected species for some time. When criticised in the past, she has been defended by some interesting comments. I have no problem with journos having their own political bent, but in her case, I always sense that she struggles not to let her own views come to the surface. Back in the day when it was touch and go whether Gillard would form minority government, the drift seemed to be heading to Abbott at the time. She came up with, live on TV, wtte that “It looks as though WE will form government”. This was the first time I had heard her allude to any particular party. It seems plenty of others have noticed similar from her………

    How many ABC journos have been the subject of that particular accusation?
    It gets a run every now and again.

  21. Right. Just heard from my son who works for colesworth. They have a new EBA. It clearly stated that people who work in the deep freeze get a loading.
    Surprise surprise colesworth disagree with the black & white allowance in the EBA & have rejected the loading claim by employee & refused to pay it.
    SDA reps says quote “it’s a grey area we haven’t won”

    Trouble is it’s in Black and white in the EBA.

    Any advice for young bloke?

  22. Re Alberta: the only reason the New Democrats were even close to being in power in the first place was that the Conservatives split down the middle before the last election (fatal in a first-past-the-post system). They were always likely to get thrown out as soon as that split was resolved.

  23. SilentMajority
    says:
    Trouble is it’s in Black and white in the EBA.
    Any advice for young bloke?
    _________________________
    Maybe get away from the SDA and join a union that is actually for workers and was set up to provide workers a viable alternative to the SDA:

    https://www.raffwu.org.au/

  24. SilentMajority @ #734 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 9:10 pm

    Right. Just heard from my son who works for colesworth. They have a new EBA. It clearly stated that people who work in the deep freeze get a loading.
    Surprise surprise colesworth disagree with the black & white allowance in the EBA & have rejected the loading claim by employee & refused to pay it.
    SDA reps says quote “it’s a grey area we haven’t won”

    Trouble is it’s in Black and white in the EBA.

    Any advice for young bloke?

    Send Sally McManus a Private DM on Twitter. If possible. People who work in the freezer should always get a loading.

  25. Let’s see – front-line carers get $25 per hour according to a poster a little while back, so $150 for a 12 hour shift. Double to allow for on-costs. Double again for double time on a public holiday, assuming that they actually do get double time. So there’s $600. If someone’s charging $2,400 for overnight respite care, there’s some profiteering going on, and the money’s not going to the carer.

  26. Charles he (Bowen) may be across the detail, but he does not break down complex ideas very effectively so as to explain them to the masses. Also, as I said previously his speaking voice is very poor. Still, he’s from the NSW right, this stuff has never prevented people from that faction rising to prominent postions. I reckon a lower house seat is wasted on him, he should be in the senate. Chalmers puts him in the shade.

  27. “Trouble is it’s in Black and white in the EBA.

    Any advice for young bloke?”

    first thing is to check and see if there are other clauses that in his particular circumstance apply.

    If he gets no satisfaction from his union:

    https://www.fairwork.gov.au/contact-us

    All that said, before anyone gets too upset, try and get clarification from a union industrial officer on what the problem is. In my fairly broad experience of dealing with them and individual matters at a workplace level, they are usually pretty well versed in this kind of stuff.

  28. Labor is offering a policy prescription for Australia in the greatest detail, no more small targets. This is a policy manifesto has been out for a good 3 years and they keep adding to it and of course if you add to it, then you have to update.” Kerry-Anne Walsh #auspol #TheDrum

  29. “Yes, there are lots of voters out there who are as engaged with politics as I am with AFL.”

    And it is the decisions of precisely those voters that determine election results.

  30. C@tmomma
    says:
    Who get blown off by Coles for the useless vanity project they are.
    Yeah nah.
    ____________________
    Jeez, you’re a real trooper. How long would you have lasted in a strike? If more supermarket workers joined the RFFWU then it would change everything. Or just continue to get screwed by the supermarkets and the SDA.

  31. Trouble is it’s in Black and white in the EBA.

    I have trouble with black and white as a concept, but then I’m a lawyer (not practicing and not offering advice ever – joys of in house teams), everything is gray, and rarely the permitted fun 50 shades.

  32. ‘scuse, steve davis – Storer officially quits what? Since he’s a member of his own registered party, as a sitting MP is entitled to be thanks to the weirdness of the Electoral Act, what has he quit from?

  33. Jeez, you’re a real trooper. How long would you have lasted in a strike? If more supermarket workers joined the RFFWU then it would change everything. Or just continue to get screwed by the supermarkets and the SDA.

    Why do i suspect that the RFFWU is like joining Scientology but more expensive and less fun?

  34. “It’s why they will never do it again.”
    “It’s why they won’t go there again.”

    Labor will do it again as soon as it seems to be in their interests. Which is unlikely to be in 2019, but also unlikely to be never.

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