Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

  1. Charles.

    Due to polling I say if as expected Labor wins.
    With Bowen I get both perceptions.

    I think however it’s too many people wanting another orator like Keating as Treasurer.

    Like with the Democrats Presidential field I don’t expect a repeat of the oratory of Obama there I don’t expect the oratory of Keating in Treasury.

    But that’s just my opinion. We can say Bowen has done a good job if Labor does win and how Mr Bowen performs as Treasurer. He could surprise me on the up side in the job.

  2. Pegasus @ #595 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 6:10 pm

    The whining of a few Laborites that the Greens, a political party in its own right with its own policy platform, does not rubber stamp Labor policy or participate in Labor’s political strategy, is tiresome.

    No, what is tiresome is you and your fellow travellers trying to litigate that tired and stale old argument day in, day out here.

    We get it already. You think you are better than us. Superior beings in every way. Whatever. Just please don’t bore us to tears every day with it and other associated Green knob polishing!?!

    …Cue bs snarky reply…

  3. People say we are stuck, well the bookie markets agree

    Yesterday at this time:

    ALP 1.18
    LNP 4.75

    Just now

    ALP 1.18
    LNP 4.75

    Nostradamus and his band of YoungLibs should get their hands in daddies wallet and go to town on these once in a lifetime odds in a two horse race – can’t lose, we are told it’s all over Red Rover.

    And by Jingo, the congaline of suckholes at the SmearStralian will be rolling in the green stufff after their breathless pants wetting about the serial failures of Bill Shorten – web pages changed! Sneaky on costings! Worst day yet! Get onto Sportsbet – you can then give Rupert the big wazoo when this ragtag bunch of Labor gets their cumappance.

  4. https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahryan/traditional-owners-fracking-nt

    Traditional owners protesting fracking in the Northern Territory have brought drilling equipment to the front lawns of the Northern Territory’s parliament.

    They say they want to let politicians know how it feels to have unwelcome machinery on your land, and that they have not given their consent for gas companies to undertake exploration on their country.

    Wednesday marks one year since the Northern Territory government lifted the moratorium on fracking. The moratorium was announced in 2016, shortly after the Labor government took office.
    :::
    The federal government announced the NT would get $260 million extra in GST and $550 million for remote housing several days after the moratorium was lifted.

  5. Scott Morrison will win the election on May 18 with a result of 51/49

    Bill Shorten as lost this election and should do the honour able thing and resign as opposition leader and let new blood to take over for the 2022 election…

  6. Just watched ABC NEWS 24 coverage. Pretty balanced.

    Morrison full of bluff and bluster. But he is direct and quite concise, which irks me.

    Surprisingly Shorten appears to lack confidence.

    The Easter break hopefully allows a reset.

  7. Sprocket
    If Coalition voters are so confident of winning then they should be putting their house on the odds of $4.75. Where are your balls?

  8. Not watching The Drum myself, but apparently Fran Kelly is disgracing herself with pro Liberal statements.

    I do listen to RN in the mornings, and am often shocked by how she repeats Murdoch/LNP lies of the day as if they are facts

  9. Lynchpin says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 6:23 pm
    Just watched ABC NEWS 24 coverage. Pretty balanced.

    Morrison full of bluff and bluster. But he is direct and quite concise, which irks me.

    —————

    The same Morrison i seen on ABC NEWS 24 which was bellowing and could hardly string a sentence together

  10. sprocket

    YoungLibs just trying to divert attention from wanker behaviour

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/young-liberal-instagram-rich-kid-questioned-by-police-after-gatecrashing-meeting-20190417-p51exv.html

    A young Liberal with a penchant for fast cars, luxury yachts, and expensive cigars has been questioned by police over an alleged assault against a female security guard at one of the nation’s most prestigious universities.

    With just over a month until the federal election, the Victorian Liberals once again face concerns over the culture of its youth movement after an ugly stoush erupted at the Melbourne University Liberal Club, the student association whose alumni includes some of the state’s top politicians.

  11. Scott Morrison will win the election on May 18 with a result of 51/49

    Bill Shorten as lost this election and should do the honour able thing and resign as opposition leader and let new blood to take over for the 2022 election.

  12. Scott Morrison will win the election on May 18 with a result of 51/49

    Bill Shorten as lost this election and should do the honour able thing and resign as opposition leader and let new blood to take over for the 2022 election….

  13. Scott Morrison will win the election on May 18 with a result of 51/49

    Bill Shorten as lost this election and should do the honour able thing and resign as opposition leader and let new blood to take over for the 2022 election

    I hope he will resign soon

  14. For those in WA who have suggested that the WestAustralian has become a mouthpiece for the Liberals won’t have to worry about their journalists bias anymore..

    This from The Smear..

    Job losses at The West, Times
    More than 30 journalists will leave The West Australian and Sunday Times newspapers in Perth.

  15. Gee, this is the witching hour when the dross comes out. Which is worse – a slightly different stupid comment interspaced between sensible one, or three stupid comments, the same stupid comments, one after the other? Just happened with Plain Wayne above. Pity this good blog is polluted, not so much by thought-out counterpoints, but just plain, boring, disruptive crap…………………..time to lurk one fancies.

  16. Fran Kelly copping a heck of a pasting on Twitter at #thedrum. Example: going after Labor’s fairly routine website update (Labor has the most comprehensive and transparent policy platform in the last 20 years) yet must have been busy hand wringing to see Chris Bowen point out the Liberal Party website only has four policies on it and none of the links work. I have got no idea how she got this far in her career.

  17. It appears the journos going from the West are not the syndicated ones from Murdoch and I don’t think Mooner Murray is included. Gary Adshead is to go, but the others are not political animals that I can see. While I don’t agree with everything Adshead has written I think he is fair enough. The West newspaper has been in a long downward spiral for a long time.

  18. What a trainwreck of an interview from the director of Get Up. His credibility is shot to pieces. Anyone know what salary he would be on. If i had donated to Get Up i would be so pissed off.

  19. or three stupid comments

    It is 5 actually. Almost identical. And if I wasnt guilty of posting crap as well I would complain to the Great Omniscient One.

  20. Fran Kelly has been a protected species for some time. When criticised in the past, she has been defended by some interesting comments. I have no problem with journos having their own political bent, but in her case, I always sense that she struggles not to let her own views come to the surface. Back in the day when it was touch and go whether Gillard would form minority government, the drift seemed to be heading to Abbott at the time. She came up with, live on TV, wtte that “It looks as though WE will form government”. This was the first time I had heard her allude to any particular party. It seems plenty of others have noticed similar from her………

  21. “If I were in the seat of Melbourne I would probably vote for Bandt. He has been a very progressive voice in HoR and has not made a habit of grandstanding at Labor’s expense.

    I am in the seat of McNamara. It is a 3-sided contest. A vote for the Green candidate could see her come second on Primaries and see Labor come third. If Labor comes third there is a REAL RISK that sufficient Labor preferences will flow to the Lib candidate for the Lib candidate to win. This is because there are likely to be a number of naturally Lib voters unhappy with Turnbull’s fate/Climate Change to vote Labor but would never vote Green.

    Green preferences are likely to flow more strongly to Labor than Labor to Green.

    Therefore a vote for the Greens in McNamara runs the risk of voting in a Lib. That is not a risk I have the slightest interest in exposing myself to.”

    As someone who does actually live in the Greens held electorate of Ballina, which is also a three way contest with Labor and the Nats, let me reassure you that this is nothing more than a desperate Labor scare campaign to try and cling onto MacNamara. If Labor voters in Ports are dumb enough to preference the Libs instead of the Greens, especially when Steph Hogins-May is such a great candidate, then that’s entirely on them. That’s not what happened in Ballina though. Most Labor voters prefrenced the Green Tamara Smith, not the Nationals candidate. You could have a look at the Vic Greens seat of Prahran if you want another example of the Greens winning a three way contest. Labor voters are not as stupid as their own party’s scare campaigns make them out to be.

  22. “…I would complain to the Great Omniscient One.”

    No need to complain. The Great Omniscient One sees all, being omniscient and all.

  23. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 6:10 pm
    The whining of a few Laborites that the Greens, a political party in its own right with its own policy platform, does not rubber stamp Labor policy or participate in Labor’s political strategy, is tiresome.

    I agree. But the constant whining of a few Greens because Labor doesn’t have exactly the same policies as they do is just as annoying. They are as bad as each other and equally boring.

  24. I do listen to RN in the mornings, and am often shocked by how she repeats Murdoch/LNP lies of the day as if they are facts

    Because RN Breakfast has long been the radio version of The Australian. So much of its framing is gleaned from the Oz.

  25. “Van Badham just recommended a vote for Labor.”

    Has she ever not? She’s as rusted on as they come and has well and truly been blinded by the light on the hill.

  26. Firefox

    Van Badham is an enthusiastic unionist so would hardly recommend a vote for the IPA/Coalition. At least we know where she’s coming from. She also brings fact into her arguments, not just emotions.

  27. Charles.

    I have seen Bowen speak at the NPC. I think he makes An excellent case for Labor. I don’t see him talking too fast or too slow or anything like that.

    I just don’t think he has Keating’s way of explaining economics.
    That banana Republic line. The J curve. And his arguments for super all cut through to the electorate almost within the hour.

    So good that Mordor had to go on about the undertaker suits and clocks to make him appear out of touch. I don’t expect to see many treasurers cut through to the electorate like that. It’s more praise of Keating not damning Bowen with faint praise

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