Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Ah, Scott Morrison taking an answer Bill Shorten gave today in Adelaide about Superannuation completely out of context. And going on and on and on about it.

    Quel surprise.

  2. Peg, Firefox

    Unfortunately some here have tagged you as Greens and for them it means that pretty much you and your opinions are worthless and they prefer to resort to insults. It doesnt make this place all that nice.

  3. IoM @ #403 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Peg, Firefox

    Unfortunately some here have tagged you as Greens and for them it means that pretty much you and your opinions are worthless and they prefer to resort to insults. It doesnt make this place all that nice.

    Are you really trying to say that they don’t give as good as they get!?! Come. On! Today Pegasus was worse than any other poster with her vile slur of myself. You gonna defend that as okay by you?

  4. Looks like the Coalition has dragged up Sam Dastyari questioning whether he has any connection to Labor’s pathology announcement.

    It’s just the beginning of a long and dirty campaign. More voters will tune out and turn off.

  5. C@tmomma @ #402 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Ah, taking an answer Bill Shorten gave today in Adelaide about Superannuation completely out of context.

    Quel surprise.

    Shorten should have taken the straightforward way out of that situation and said “yes, I rule out any new or increased superannuation tax” instead of “I have no plans of taxing superannuation” (or whatever similar thing he said).

    Why he didn’t is a mystery. Labor really struggling with the whole “be clear and concise” thing.

  6. A week or so ago, there was a graph posted here showing how often Labor/Greens/ON voted with the Coalition – anyone still have it?

  7. a r @ #407 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:24 pm

    C@tmomma @ #402 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Ah, taking an answer Bill Shorten gave today in Adelaide about Superannuation completely out of context.

    Quel surprise.

    Shorten should have taken the straightforward way out of that situation and said “yes, I rule out any new or increased superannuation tax” instead of “I have no plans of taxing superannuation” (or whatever similar thing he said).

    Why he didn’t is a mystery. Labor really struggling with the whole “be clear and concise” thing.

    True dat. I can only think that he didn’t want to get into a Julia Gillard, ‘There will be no Carbon Tax under a government I lead’, situation. I mean, who’s to say that Superannuation will remain untouched, or should be, forevermore?

  8. zoomster @ #407 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    A week or so ago, there was a graph posted here showing how often Labor/Greens/ON voted with the Coalition – anyone still have it?

    And maybe a similar graph, but this time Coalition/Greens/ON etc. voting with Labor. (Bearing in mind that bills are not created equal, which might be another analysis altogether.)

  9. a r @ #407 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:24 pm

    C@tmomma @ #402 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Ah, taking an answer Bill Shorten gave today in Adelaide about Superannuation completely out of context.

    Quel surprise.

    Shorten should have taken the straightforward way out of that situation and said “yes, I rule out any new or increased superannuation tax” instead of “I have no plans of taxing superannuation” (or whatever similar thing he said).

    Why he didn’t is a mystery. Labor really struggling with the whole “be clear and concise” thing.

    Wriggle room.

    It’s a deliberate strategy.

    As an example the AFL are masters at deliberately making sure there’s wriggle room in every facet of their organisation that allows them maximum flexibility according to the daily requirement..

  10. RD

    Paul Karp

    Bill Shorten was just asked whether he consulted Sam Dastyari about Labor’s pathology policy.

    A quick search of the lobbyist register shows Dastyari is registered with the Strategic Counsel, which has a range of pharmaceutical, aged care and healthcare clients:

  11. “After failing to win a seat in NSW’s Upper House, David Leyonhjelm has taken to the blogosphere to announce his “life as a politician is over” and unload on his Liberal Democratic Party.”

    Meanwhile, somewhere in South Australia…

  12. Poor little David,

    Lost out this time because of the luck of the draw and voters chose to protest by voting for some other irrelevant entity.

    There’s an admission that you represent ideas that people don’t care for.

    Farewell?

    No, piss off you odious little creature and take your selfish ideology with you!

  13. Scott in the last 30 mins. Usual lines – lies and it’s rubbish, like a broken record, boring and predictable.

    Scott Morrison:
    ‘Bill Shorten lies. He lies. He lies all the time’.

    On the Grattan Institute analysis of the government’s tax plan:
    ‘That’s complete rubbish. It’s absolute, complete rubbish’.

  14. C@tmomma @ #410 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:27 pm

    I mean, who’s to say that Superannuation will remain untouched, or should be, forevermore?

    No one. Although worrying about that scenario before winning the election is risky (if not self-defeating). You’ve got to win first, and then you have the luxury of getting caught in “lies” when the situation changes and you have to revise policy to suit.

    Morrison, on the other hand, just proclaimed “no new taxes forevermore” under the Coalition. Which sooner or later will be proven to be bullshit, but as campaign material it’s way more effective than trying to do nuance.

  15. A $75 a week rise is a nice little bonus if you’re living at home.

    A student who rents pays at least part of their rent out of their normal living allowance, which means that, in practice, they’ve got less to live on than the student who stays at home.

    So the kid with rich parents living in Brunswick is doing quite well, while their counterpart from the country renting in Brunswick is impoverished.

    Particularly with Youth Allowance, I think a rise in rent assistance would be more practical and better targeted – a review might suggest, for example, that YA (and similar payments) go up but that rent assistance goes up even more.

  16. zoomster
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 3:34 pm
    Particularly with Youth Allowance, I think a rise in rent assistance would be more practical and better targeted – a review might suggest, for example, that YA (and similar payments) go up but that rent assistance goes up even more.
    ________________________________
    Yep, targeting Rent Assistance would be the best way to go in terms of fairness.

  17. A genuine full employment strategy for 2019 would emphasize gender equality and changing the composition of economic activity in ways that drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

    Those are two key ways in which a contemporary full employment strategy would differ from the full employment strategies of the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s.

    However, like in those previous decades we should be targeting unemployment of 1 or 2 percent, zero time-related under-employment, and zero hidden unemployment.

    Under-employment started to become a major problem in Australia in 1993 when Australia was recovering from the recession of the early 1990s.

    The federal government’s refusal to make sufficiently active use of fiscal policy since then has resulted in that problem persisting.

    Under-employment is a pernicious problem because it drastically weakens the bargaining power of the worker. Workers who are desperate for more hours from their employer are not in a position to push for fair wages and conditions.

  18. Tony Abbott says he would be willing to resume leadership of the Liberal party: "If they want me they will need to invite me … I am not going to shoulder anyone aside for the top job, because for me it has never been about that." https://t.co/v5fgBwBGPY— Guardian Australia (@GuardianAus) April 16, 2019

    Bill Shorten is the luckiest politician ever.

  19. zoomster @ #422 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 1:34 pm

    A $75 a week rise is a nice little bonus if you’re living at home.

    A student who rents pays at least part of their rent out of their normal living allowance, which means that, in practice, they’ve got less to live on than the student who stays at home.

    So the kid with rich parents living in Brunswick is doing quite well, while their counterpart from the country renting in Brunswick is impoverished.

    Particularly with Youth Allowance, I think a rise in rent assistance would be more practical and better targeted – a review might suggest, for example, that YA (and similar payments) go up but that rent assistance goes up even more.

    Which ignores that the kid with rich parents wouldn’t be able to get youth allowance unless they’d satisfied the criteria for independence from their parents.

    I don’t think it’s a good thing that we bake into our welfare system an assumption that parents are willing and able to support their *adult* children.

  20. A lift in YA might enable some students to reduce their working hours to actually do some study. I recently met a student who apart from doing a full time load at Uni also does 4 casual shifts a week. Needless to say Uni comes second to work and rent. Fortunately with recorded lectures there is some flexibility but missing tutorials for work is not good.

  21. It is always interesting to see new (or recycled) posters here as it makes for a wider sample of opinions and knowledge.

    Bugler, good to see you posting and I agree with your posts today. 🙂

  22. Just received my ‘IMPORTANT POSTAL VOTING INFORMATION’ envelope from the ALP.

    But unlike the Lib efforts reported on here it is all above board and transparent.

    The Reply Paid envelope is addressed to:
    Jennifer Yang
    Labor for Chisholm
    Reply Paid xxxxx
    BOX HILL VIC 3128

    So it is obvious who it will be sent to and there is no attempt to hide that it is not the AEC.

    The Application Form enclosed states quite openly it is from the ALP Candidate in Chisholm and if you don’t want to use the reply paid envelope, it states the AEC mail address and it also advises other means, such as online, by which you can apply.

    The Security Question and Answer is clearly explained and is for AEC use. The voter selects ONE question and provides the answer. That answer will also have to be written on the envelope containing the ballot when returned.

    There is nothing dodgy about the ALP supplied information and application.

    The only advantage the ALP will get is it will know who has applied for a postal vote, will have given them some advertising material in the envelope, and when ballot papers are due to be sent out by the AEC, can send out a HTV and other material.

  23. grimace

    ‘Which ignores that the kid with rich parents wouldn’t be able to get youth allowance unless they’d satisfied the criteria for independence from their parents.’

    My point – a student who rents is disadvantaged financially compared to a student who doesn’t.

  24. a r @ #421 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:34 pm

    C@tmomma @ #410 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:27 pm

    I mean, who’s to say that Superannuation will remain untouched, or should be, forevermore?

    No one. Although worrying about that scenario before winning the election is risky (if not self-defeating). You’ve got to win first, and then you have the luxury of getting caught in “lies” when the situation changes and you have to revise policy to suit.

    Morrison, on the other hand, just proclaimed “no new taxes forevermore” under the Coalition. Which sooner or later will be proven to be bullshit, but as campaign material it’s way more effective than trying to do nuance.

    However, as you well know, Coalition politicians are given a leave pass on that sort of thing on a too regular basis. Labor, otoh, never. Especially post ‘No Carbon Tax under a government I lead’.

  25. You’ve got to win first, and then you have the luxury of getting caught in “lies” when the situation changes and you have to revise policy to suit.

    No. There is no such ‘luxury’ anymore – at least not for the ALP. As others have said, the ALP need to be absolute sticklers for doing exactly what they said they would do. This is, of course, continuing fallout from ‘no carbon tax under a government I lead’, but also because of the general dire state of public trust in government in this country (and around the world). The ALP need to be in for a long period of time, and to do that they need to build trust that what they say they will do they will do. No surprises, and no ‘gotchas’.

    Of course they don’t have much say on what the global economy or geopolitics might throw up, but that’s just life in politics that they will have to deal with as best they can. Being a bit wishy-washy now does leave them more wiggle room in future – I would call that being prudent, myself.

    If they can build the trust levels with the public then they will be able to stick it out for a few terms and work incrementally on what needs to be worked on. Again, no surprises, no exaggerations, no over promising, etc.

    If that makes the immediate task a bit harder for them, so be it, the long term is what matters, and all evidence is the ALP will probably get over the line this time.

  26. What I don’t understand is why we even need youth allowance at all? Why can’t unemployment benefits just be accessible by those who meet the requirements for Youth Allowance? then we can just call it welfare.

    Same with the pension, disability etc. Let’s take the stigma out of it.

  27. EGW

    Thanks for that. Very refreshing. Proof that, as ever, the Coalition will lose no opportunity to game the system in their favour.

  28. I just flicked through “The West” at a cafe & my goodness…

    It’s a wonder Western Australia has a viable Labor party let alone govt.
    Wall to wall tory cheerleading headlines. Add the rusted on TVW7 audience and it’s a wonder we even know an alternative view exists.

  29. Pegasus @ #416 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:30 pm

    RD

    Paul Karp

    Bill Shorten was just asked whether he consulted Sam Dastyari about Labor’s pathology policy.

    A quick search of the lobbyist register shows Dastyari is registered with the Strategic Counsel, which has a range of pharmaceutical, aged care and healthcare clients:

    Oh dear. Desperate to use a Liberal strategy of dunning Labor with the Sam Dastyari brush, or what!?!

    I mean, just because Sam works in a lobbying firm which has pharmaceutical, healthcare and aged care clients does NOT equate with his being the mastermind behind a particular Labor health policy position.

    I honestly don’t know who is more desperate to attack Labor, the Coalition or The Greens!?!

  30. “Tony Abbott says he would be willing to resume leadership of the Liberal party: “If they want me they will need to invite me … I am not going to shoulder anyone aside for the top job, because for me it has never been about that.””

    And monkeys might fly out my arse.

  31. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    If I was thinking of voting postal, I’d ignore the crap sent by my local “Liberal” member and apply directly to the AEC.

    P.S. if Labor was like the Coalition they’d find a way to suppress the postal vote when in office.

    EDIT: “Security” questions:
    A. Place of birth (town/city)
    B. Company first worked for (????? including the crap jobs I did while a student?)
    C. Last school you attended
    D. Make / model of my first car (Datsun 1200 if it’s any of your business)
    E. Middle name of my eldest child.

    I’m catching up on today’s reading, so apologies for the late response.

    MyGov wanted me to answer three security questions as a back up if I forgot my password. I discovered somehow that the answer could be anything, even “a” or “x” for example. You just have to remember what answer you gave if you forget the password and need to use the security questions.

  32. Thanks Lizzie. I try to keep busy but lurk here from time to time, trying to avoid causing our host too much grief. Hope all is well 🙂

  33. citizen

    A lot of people get sucked in on facebook, providing information which is clearly related to commonly asked security questions.

    People need to be careful about providing their mother’s maiden name, the names of their first pets, the first car they owned, etc in response to facebook memes.

  34. Bill Shorten is the luckiest politician ever.

    Hee hee.

    I have noticed he still struggles to smack nail heads in pressers. How he is received in that first debate will be interesting. It will be a stark comparison this time between the shouty motor mouth who has nothing to say to the more measured and too often staggered and drawn out delivery of Shorten.

  35. Michael Woolridge is also a lobbyist for that firm, which should be part of Shorten and Labor’s answer to any question about it.

  36. Simon² Katich® @ #443 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 2:01 pm

    Bill Shorten is the luckiest politician ever.

    Hee hee.

    I have noticed he still struggles to smack nail heads in pressers. How he is received in that first debate will be interesting. It will be a stark comparison this time between the shouty motor mouth who has nothing to say to the more measured and too often staggered and drawn out delivery of Shorten.

    The debate up against ScoMo will be a turkey shoot for Shorten.

    Unfortunately not even ScoMo would be stupid enough to agree to a Town Hall format head to head with Shorten.

  37. Talking about the dropping of the “LIBERAL” from COALition posters here in Nth Canberra most of our very own Noddy posters I have seen on my travels read “ZED your local Senator”, and they look like they were made up in someones backyard.

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