Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.
The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).
There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.
Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.
Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.
grimace skywalker
I always think it’s funny how right wing Labor trolls go on about the Greens’ policies not being implemented when a huge part of Labor’s platform are policies they’ve adopted from the Greens. The reality of course is that the Greens lead the way for progressive policy development in this country. Most of Labor’s best policies are long held Greens’ policies which they’ve forced the ALP to adopt. On the other hand, most of Labor’s worst policies are adopted from the Coalition in a race to scrape the dregs off the bottom of the barrel.
Firefox @ #297 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:24 am
So you agree there is no rationale to the amount? Good luck selling an increase to unemployment benefits without a rationale.
The only Greens Policy is “We said it first and we’ll spend more”.
Wash, rinse and repeat!
Firefox says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 1:30 pm
Don’t sell yourself short.
Surely the Greens in Australia are the source of all progressive thought, development and advancement in the World. 🙂
“I don’t know why Di Natale is downplaying the Greens chances in Cooper. I would have thought that this was still the best seat to deliver a second Greens member in the HoR. With the Libs standing again there is a chance that the results might go somewhere near the 2016 result. While it’s good that the Greens are putting more effort into Kooyong and Higgins, they should not forget that Wills and Cooper are future Greens territory with some dedicated work.”
Considering how much of a completely useless sellout Ged Kearney has been since she was elected, it will only be a matter of time before she’s given the boot. I’m not sure it will be this time though. Would love to be wrong about that though. MacNamara, Higgins, Wills, Kooyong, Brisbane, and Richmond are all very much in play though.
Barney,
Trust you to ignore their achievements in outer space!
“So you agree there is no rationale to the amount?”
People going hungry isn’t enough for you? Seriously?
GG, the greens tend to be ahead of the curve on many social policies that don’t have a major cost to them.
They were ahead of the curve on Marriage equality, although the libs did out-do themselves on the We’ll Spend More side of the equation 😉
There are other policies that they have adopted that have become part of the ALP charter or will become part of the ALP charter. Think assisted dying legislation, pill testing.
The interesting part of this is that because the greens are a separate entity to the ALP and can pursue these goals without being hosed down by the other faction of the ALP causing a raft within the ALP similar to what is occurring within the LNP at the moment…
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 1:40 pm
They haven’t quite got the numbers for that, yet!
Firefox @ #303 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
This post proves that Firefox is just another Green nasty.
“This post proves that Firefox is just another Green nasty.”
Remember, C@t, mess with the Fox and you’ll get the fire! You continue to expect me to just cop all these false claims and trolling comments from Labor people. Not going to happen.
Step down Gladys.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/16/liberal-candidate-gladys-liu-cancels-interviews-after-fake-report-claim-debunked
There’s nothing new under the sun.
Ideas like assisted dying, homosexual law reform, etc have been discussed and debated for decades, if not longer. The Greens did not invent these matters.
I find it highly amusing that they proclaim they did when lived experience proves them wrong.
Facts matter!
Sorry Firefox, as an active member of the ALP, the idea that these ideas exist only within the Greens collective consciousness is absolutely untrue.
There are many, many members of the ALP that were advocates for many of those issues at the same time. The difficulty is the behemoth that is the conference process to change formal party policy. I give the Greens huge credit for being public advocates for those positions, and in many ways, giving cover to nervous ALPers to stand up more publicly for those positions.
But PLEASE stop presenting this idea that only the Greens believe x or y. You’ve asked me to believe you when you’ve defended certain discussions I’ve heard within the Greens from friends, and I’m asking you to do me the same courtesy.
The Greens have been introducing legislation for things like marriage equality, a federal ICAC, a banking royal commission, etc… for decades. Labor’s record of teaming up with the Coalition to block these and more is a matter of historical fact and is recorded in Hansard.
Instead of being diverted by The Greens’ garbage(and it appears, Boerwar, that you have fallen foul of the misstep you admonish others for), what we should be talking about is the fact that The Grattan Institute has analysed the Budget and found that:
$40 Billion of Cuts to government services per year will need to be made if the Morrison government tax cuts and flattening of tax scales goes ahead and the Budget is to remain in Surplus!
Just ignore The Greens’ partisans trying to troll you and engage you in side issues of minor importance!
There is a Radical Conservative government to defeat first!
Firefox,
Frankly, I don’t give a damn WHAT The Greens have done, or want to do. You are essentially irrelevant to the task at hand for Labor.
Barney,
The Greens first discovered space travel as a consequence of falling through the zeitgeist after all their finger pointing. This enormous, unrepaired hole enables them to travel throughout the universe. That, and the illicit drugs they like to consume.
“Sorry Firefox, as an active member of the ALP, the idea that these ideas exist only within the Greens collective consciousness is absolutely untrue.”
Like I’ve said before, the Labor Left is pretty much powerless when it comes to federal Labor. The Right Faction dominates the party. I have no doubt, no I know for a fact that there are many good people in the Labor Left. Unfortunately that doesn’t change the fact that the Right faction continues to rule the party with an iron fist. Just look at how good people like Penny Wong, who is unquestionably a supporter of equal rights for homosexual couples, was forced to vote against marriage equality for decades every time the Greens tried to introduce it. I think that’s incredibly cruel, actually. Penny deserved better than that.
Sadly, the Greens under Di Natale are amateurish and not worth voting for – and I say that as someone who ordinarily votes that way. He is no Bob Brown or Christine Milne. Sadly they don’t have much future leadership talent to replace him either. They will probably still get my vote as there’s no real alternative but it’s hardly enthusiastic.
In other news the Greens look like the might be on the cusp of an electoral breakthrough in the Prince Edward Island elections coming up. With FPTP who knows what the result will be even with them ahead in recent published polls.
Also interesting will be the results of the MMP referendum, to be held concurrently with the election.
j341983 ,
Don’t waste your energy. It’s obvious that this new Greens partisan is here to waste our time.
@Cat – that is a potent point for the ALP to weaponise, you want a counter-point to the concerns of some around here about the surplus talk… “you want that surplus so badly? How much of your health and education services are you prepared to lose to get it?”
@Firefox – Labor is FAR more complicated than left and right factions. Bill Shorten, in 2012, as a member of the right and former head of the AWU, voted for equality – Julia Gillard, a member of the left, voted against it.
It’s not that simple, and for example, the left faction is more powerful in Queensland the ACT, whereas the right is more dominant elsewhere.
The problem is, raising the Benefit will encourage “some” more to try and Live off it! .
Apparently it happens now!.
Prove it does NOT!.
The characteristics of those who have unfortunately infested the former Liberal Party continue to be on display
They are now a political party of right wing ideology (and I would refer you to Stiglitz)
Consequently their austerity delivers confidence ideology has been called out by the Grattan Institute in their assessments of the funding of the tax cuts 10 years hence
Who in our community suffers to deliver tax relief to high income earners over the next decade – and trickle down economics?
Grattan Institute has delivered the answer
The Liberal Party is dysfunctional hence the government is dysfunctional
grimace @ #298 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 1:26 pm
Rationale or no, since the poverty line for a single person kicks in at $60/day it would be the case that in addition to being nice and round $50/day is strictly better than $39/day since it’s less hopelessly impoverished than the latter number.
If you wanted to make the case that, ideologically, weflare payments should never be enough to keep a person out of poverty and therefore should be fixed at around 80% of the poverty line, then $50/day is actually pretty close to what the math would say it should be.
Edit: all values should be $/day.
Never forget Joe for Canberra was for flat tax.. the Country Party still tells the Liberals what they can and can’t do.
Upnorth @ #244 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
Did you mean “ni hao”?
“Firefox,
Frankly, I don’t give a damn WHAT The Greens have done, or want to do. You are essentially irrelevant to the task at hand for Labor.”
I think I’ll save this quote somewhere so I can remind you of it when Labor are negotiating with the Greens in the Senate to try and pass their agenda. We’ll help you, just like we did from 07-13. You’re soon to be reminded of the fact that the Greens are anything but irrelevant to the task at hand, which is of course cleaning up the Coalition’s massive mess.
Firefox @ #309 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:41 am
People going hungry, or not, isn’t the issue. It’s an emotive motherhood statement that does nothing to build the case for change.
In order to achieve enduring change for the better you need to build the case for change and bring people along with you. A proper review of the current situation involves quantifying the shortcomings of the current situation, outlining what we as a society expect from our welfare system and identifying how much we need to increase various welfare measures by in order to deliver what we as a society expect from our welfare system.
Your attitude demonstrates that you, like many Greens, have learned nothing from the CPRS. In striving for the perfect, you’ve completely dismissed just how hard core the resistance to a material increase in the unemployment and other welfare payments is going to be.
Labor is going to have to stand up and do some long and hard selling of the case for materially increasing welfare payments. They are going to loose some skin along the way. They are going to have to compromise and accept less than 100% of what they wanted. And they are going to be criticised and hindered by the Greens every step of the way.
At the end of the process they’ll be able to say we delivered something for welfare recipients. And they’ll be criticised again by the Greens for not delivering enough.
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 1:59 pm
Ahhh!
Must be secret bottom of the garden business!
when Labor are negotiating with the Greens in the Senate ?.
They have lost my vote in the Senate!.
My vote goes to somewhere useful to ensure CHANGE!.
Firefox has been a great addition to the Greens Phalanx on PB. As the old ALP stooges shuffle off into nursing homes I expect PB will be dominated by the Greens. Just like a clutch of old ALP seats.
1934pc @ #325 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:01 pm
My wife used to work for one of the very large Job Active providers. There are three types of people she encountered:
– Those who hard core resistant to working despite being able to;
– Those with a serious barrier to employment (mental/physical illness, homelessness, alcohol/drug issues, criminal history, long term unemployment, did not have a drivers license etc), and;
– Those whom the only reason they did not have a job is because they could not get one.
The hard core resistant to work, while highly visible, were a tiny minority. A serious barrier to employment was much more common. The overwhelming majority of people she dealt with were desperate for work and simply could not get a job.
nath says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 2:10 pm
Firefox has been a great addition to the Greens Phalanx on PB. As the old ALP stooges shuffle off into nursing homes I expect PB will be dominated by the Greens. Just like a clutch of old ALP seats.
———————————————————————————-
Well this ALP Stooge just returned from some work in Inner Mongolia and ready again to take up the cudgels. The Upnorth family has volunteered to hand out at out embassy for the election.
Just like Labor’s numbers in the forthcoming election, I can see PB continuing to be dominated by we ALP types as the Green vote continues to tank.
Firestone is a great addition to the Phallics and their symbols on PB.
nath
Firefox has been a great addition to the Greens Phalanx on PB. As the old ALP stooges shuffle off into nursing homes I expect PB will be dominated by the Greens. Just like a clutch of old ALP seats?.
Keep a wishing and hoping nath, but I will be long dead!.
autocrat says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 2:04 pm
😆
Salam, suostei, sabaidi, namaste, xin chào, yeoboseyo, Kon’nichiwa?
Nathetic response little fella
Greens, ALP. Blah.
Politico says Sanders ripped it with his Fox News town hall chat. I reckon Fox might stop inviting him on.
For those saying we need ‘more study’ before any increase in Newstart this was mentioned in Lenore Taylor’s article. We had a study and………………..
hhttps://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/15/left-behind-the-australians-neither-political-party-wants-to-discuss
What odds another decade of Newstart increases being promised Sir Humphry style ‘In the fullness of time. At the appropriate juncture of events” ?
Barney in Mui Ne says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 2:20 pm
autocrat says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Upnorth @ #244 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
@ Barney in Mui Ne
All them cows walking around – Mmm fresh Beef Pho.
Aroi Mak Mak (Sorry my Vietnamese is Non Existent).
Did you mean “ni hao”?
Salam, suostei, sabaidi, namaste, xin chào, yeoboseyo, Kon’nichiwa?
———————————————————————————-
No no guys – “Aroi Mak Mak” is Thai for very nice to eat!!!! In Mandarin it’s “Hao Chi”.
The thought of fresh Beef Pho made my mouth water.
Barney will have to “edumacate” me for the Vietnamese version.
1934pc @ #325 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 2:01 pm
People like my Tasmanian friend.
A widow living about 70k out of Hobart. Does not drive but has a bus service stopping right outside. She is in her 60s and forced to ‘volunteer’ in a Op Shop to avoid having to go through the rigmarol of a fruitless job search. She is doing far more hours than needed at the Op Shop and is now managing it.
She has prepared the house beautifully for sale and if/when it sells will look for a house large enough to share comfortably with her sister, who does drive.
She had always worked, then found what she was doing was too physically demanding in her 50s and did a TAFE Business/Bookeeping course – but it did not lead to any permanent work.
Someone doing the right things but getting no reward for it, particularly from people like you.
Firefox @ #330 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
No, they are not irrelevant.
Just another obstacle to be overcome.
Another impediment to progress.
“j341983 ,
Don’t waste your energy. It’s obvious that this new Greens partisan is here to waste our time.”
No. In all honesty I’d rather debate you Labor lot, even when things get a bit heated, than have to put up with being called a “cucked snowflake” or whatever the far right’s pathetic childish insult of the day is. PB is bliss compared to Twitter or even Facebook. At least I can get a decent argument about the issues from you lot. Well, with the exception of one or two of you, who are easily swatted away anyway.
Robust debate is good. You Labor people should embrace it. It helps us all grow.
1934pc
Who cares if some unfortunate wants to live on whatever stingy amount is allocated.
The amount is miniscule in comparison to the helicopter rides and trips to the Melbourne Cups each year.
Firefox
It’s a very LNP thing to have all the answers.
As far as Notre Dame is concerned, I hope that the archives have been saved. Lots of very important documents in there.
“Firefox has been a great addition to the Greens Phalanx on PB.”
Thank you, comrade! 😀
Upnorth says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 2:27 pm
NFI, but in Barney International, thumbs up, smile and say, “yummy”! 🙂