Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.
The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).
There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.
Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.
Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.
Betfair still has the Coalition on $6.20 versus Labor on $1.18. Guess not many people read the Australian. 🙂
I received a robo call over the weekend. It came from a Canberra mobile number (I am in WA) and it was spoken in Chinese. Don’t know how or why they got my mobile number as I have never received such calls before and don’t speak any Chinese dialect. Anyone have any idea who it might have been on behalf of?
I also received a letter this morning with no sender identification but with words to the effect “Important electoral information” giving the impression it was from the AEC. On opening it, I found Liberal Party propaganda from Ben Morton, my local member, and postal vote ballot papers. Fat chance.
@Fulvio – I received the same Chinese robocall.
Tricot
It did nae earn the sobriquet of The Worst Australian newspaper for nothing 🙂
Greens leader is nothing but a failure but to attack Labor and run his own slave trade on his farms….
When does pre-polling started. I want to be the first through the door.
antonbruckner11 @ #207 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:33 am
Monday 29th.
On the “senior’s forum”, you have to laugh. This from the Guardian:
“Sky News’s Annelise Nielsen said she asked participants of that senior’s forum how they found out about it, and learnt most discovered it through the local Liberal party branch.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/apr/16/federal-election-2019-tax-health-labor-liberal-coalition-morrison-shorten-politics-live
Between James McCrazy last night and this stunt the Liberals are getting pretty desperate. Internal polling must not be good. ScumMo’s smile means nothing. He would smile at an arrest warrant.
Fulvio Sammut @ #203 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:28 am
Canberra mobile number? No such thing.
I received such a call too.
You could not have received ballot papers as they have not been printed yet as nominations have not even closed.
You really do have a tenuous grip on facts and reality.
Betfair still has the Coalition on $6.20 versus Labor on $1.18. Guess not many people read the Australian.
The Australians digital subscription is similar to the Guardian Australia… which is pathetic given how long Rupert has been at it
I have been captivated by the terrible beauty of today’s Notre Dame images. The Notre Dame took 100 years to build, and work continued for some time after, adding then improving flying buttresses . I am trying to imagine what we could build today if we were prepared to spend 100 years building it. And whether anything built in the last 100 years is likely to survive 750 years.
Tony Smith has done his first helpful gesture to me, and sent out papers for application for a postal vote. I think that is what Fulvio might be referring to?
The little I heard of ScoMo’s meeting this morning, Henderson was very much on the “local swimming pool” line, although all she could do was promise to “try hard”.
Socrates @ #209 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:37 am
I called it first! It’s a Liberal Party branch meeting. ScoMo is going to win a lot of votes talking to them. I hope he enjoys his foot rub.
Ven
It is also correct to say that capital punishment is culturally embedded in some countries. This does not make it appropriate in Australia or even a “valid” moral position.
The point is that some societies just “Love” to persecute minorities and “inferiors”.
The white evangelicals in the USA is the obvious example.
It is not racist to call these out as uninformed prejudices which should be opposed whenever possible.
What about the Melbourne Fish Markets which nicely complemented Flinders Street Station. Demolished for a carpark.
I had a couple of Chinese language robo-calls last year, and not being a Chinese speaker they left me perplexed as well. A friend said that there had been a scam targeting Chinese language speakers, something along the lines of some government authority threatening to take action or somesuch.
This may be the same thing:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/scammers-target-chinese-community-with-threatening-phone-calls-20180518-p4zg5i.html
I have received 2 “Important Postal Voting Information” envelopes.
One was printed in Blue ink, the other was Red…
i wonder if the Liberals brains trust really thought through Slomo’s photo op. today. Helping to load bags of sand in to a ute, brings to mind trying to sandbag a Liberal seat.
Someone tell this silly man to go away.
Colonial Building Melbourne demolished in the 1950s. Tragedy.
F.S.
I received the Liberal Party mail-out re postal voting last Friday. I have returned the papers, untouched but with the addition of a Brian Owler information card, in the enclosed Reply Paid envelope. I am sorry but the childishness that occasionally takes over me is delighted that the Liberals will be paying for the postage to no advantage to them.
guytaur@9:33am
I do not accept that if a person voted No to SSM he/she is homophobic. My better half is gentle, kind , generous, well liked in our community, and who voted ALP all the time voted No to SSM. I know for a fact she is not homophobic. I voted Yes to SSM because TA, Kevin Andrews, Abetz, Dutton and Morrison opposed SSM and because my children supported it.
Out of the 14 electorates that voted No, 9 are safe ALP electorates and all are in Sydney. Are you saying ALP voters are homophobic?
It is you, swamprat and max who posted that you will not vote 1 for ALP.
SSM became a legislation because in the end ALP and Libs decided to show bipartisanship
lizzie @ #213 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:42 am
Fairly obviously.
No-one gets their hands on ballot papers other that the AEC staff and, for the few minutes it takes to vote, the voter.
Until the close of nominations, the parties cannot even confidently produce HTVs. So it seems the LNP are jumping the gun. Silly move reflecting their panic.
I thought it looked pretty silly to be loading a sack onto a ute with difficulty. Conveyed the opposite of the “everyman” image it was apparently intended to, imo
Right, so why the unhelpful snark?
I suspect betting markets are a better guide than party announcements, both parties benefit from pretending its closer than it is;
Labor wants to talk down their chances, they dont want campaigners to slow down, they want to make inroads into new territory, and if they go hard enough they improve their prospects in the senate. They also down want a repeat of last elections claims that ‘Bill was measuring up the drapes of the lodge’, or even a slight wiff that they are taking voters for granted.
Liberal need to talk up their chances because their on the ground volunteers and contributions are likely worse than they have been for a long time.
Bennelong Lurker @ #223 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:52 am
Should have carefully wrapped a brick and attached to the envelope. 👿
Shiftaling,
What I thought looked really silly in the Morrison photo was that the loading was being done while he was wearing a suit.
Jackol @ #227 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:55 am
I get a bit pissed off at people posting obvious rubbish. Sometimes it shows.
So what explains your snark?
I do hope Labor’s pre-postal vote game is better this time around than it has been in the past.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/political-parties-using-cheeky-tactic-mine-voter-information/11018350
Both major parties do it.
Grimace
I never argued you were metaphorically right about the nature of the senior’s forum. Thanks to a little bit of journalism it looks like you were literally correct as well 🙂
It would only take an ounce of digging by the MSM pack following the PM and this could get really embarrassing before campaign’s end. So many of the PM’s statements about both his own policies and Labor’s are untrue. ScumMo is doubling down on all the Liberals most deeply unpopular tactics, from climate change to racism. You woudl think they might have had a rethink after Christchurch, but instead they seemed to have believed that was their Tampa moment, and forged ahead.
How do “betting markets” work? As more bets are laid would not a certain inertia become established? Isn’t it that bets laid 2 weeks ago still influence the odds today? You would have to know how many bets had been laid, when they were laid, and the size of those bets to interpret today’s fluctuations. Wouldn’t you?
I love the way I travel.
I do little research before hand and basically just turn up and discover the place for myself.
My current location, Mui Ne, is perfect example. I have been hearing about it for a number of years, but being further away from HCMC than Vung Tau it wasn’t on the radar when I was looking for a quick beach break.
Anyway, I found it on the map, located on a small peninsula and so I set off arriving in the late afternoon to the feeling I had been transported to India. Riding into town I was greeted by cows wandering the streets. I’m writing this in a cafe on the footpath and a few minutes ago a family of them just strolled by. Not what I was expecting!
Also for somewhere so popular there wasn’t much in the way of accommodation, a couple of resorts on the eastern side of the peninsula and a few guesthouses, but little else.
The town itself showed few signs of wealth, just your standard Vietnamese fishing village, chilled, relaxed, my kind of place.
It was only the next day that I discovered “Mui Ne”, the tourist destination. It’s about 20km to Phan Thiet, a large coastal town to the south. The highway bypasses the the coastal road, so I missed “Mui Ne” on my way in, but for about 12km this road is lined with countless resorts, hotels, guesthouses, shops, restaurants and no cows.
It’s interesting how some places are popular with certain nationalities and here it seems to be Russians. Signs in Cyrillic and some more unusual restaurants. I’ve seen Armenian Kazakhstan and Bulgarian ones to name a few.
But I’m staying in Mui Ne with the cows, much nicer here! 🙂
EGW,
I’ll remember to do that next time.
*grin*
Barney in Mui Ne @ #174 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:44 am
The Chinese have a public Holiday for Grave Cleaning. This year it was recent, on 5 April.
Burgey says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 11:59 am
I do hope Labor’s pre-postal vote game is better this time around than it has been in the past.
Got mine from Labor in the mail yesterday. Easy to read and follow. First one before other parties.
Fulvio @11:28:
“I received a robo call over the weekend. It came from a Canberra mobile number (I am in WA) and it was spoken in Chinese. Don’t know how or why they got my mobile number as I have never received such calls before and don’t speak any Chinese dialect. Anyone have any idea who it might have been on behalf of?”
There was a scam in NSW several months ago aimed at the Chinese community, telling them that they or their family back in China are in trouble and payment is required to make it go away. A very nasty scam. I got several calls last year. I don’t speak Chinese but many people of Chinese heritage live in my area: https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/news/threat-and-kidnap-scams-target-chinese-community
“I also received a letter this morning with no sender identification but with words to the effect “Important electoral information” giving the impression it was from the AEC. On opening it, I found Liberal Party propaganda from Ben Morton, my local member, and postal vote ballot papers. Fat chance.”
Me too, from my local member Trent Zimmerman. He purports to bring “progress thinking”. If he is, no one in his party’s listening.
Trent Zimmerman Peter Dutton same same.
Pegasus @ #233 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:03 pm
Bit of a beat up. Nothing new and most of the information supposedly gathered would already be known from the Electoral Roll.
EGW –
Have you used the internet? You must be pissed off a lot.
FS didn’t post ‘rubbish’ – the wording was not quite correct, but I understood what was intended, as, clearly, did you. You just chose to be unduly offensive in your response, in my opinion.
My initial reaction to your disproportionate rudeness was to write something fairly harsh. As per usual (this being the internet) I decided that wasn’t a good, positive or at all helpful thing to do, so I didn’t post anything. When you followed up indicating that you had no problem understanding what FS had actually been communicating I couldn’t resist pointing out that you had been – in my opinion – unduly offensive.
I note the Reply Paid envelope from Libs has a different address from the AEC one on the back of the form. I shall naturally use the AEC one.
This is the first time I have applied for a Postal Vote and find the “security questions” interesting with regard to the private info that a political party might collect.
@ Barney in Mui Ne
All them cows walking around – Mmm fresh Beef Pho.
Aroi Mak Mak (Sorry my Vietnamese is Non Existent).
EGW
I wish them joy of the middle name of my eldest child. 😆
lizzie
Anyone who has contemplated voting against the Coalition is an obvious security risk to the job security of all Liberal staffers.
Ever since 9-11 “security” has become such a bogey-word that you could attach it to a lunch order and still demand the recipient undertake absurd actions. Xanthippe refers to it as “security theatre”.
The parties inserting themselves into the postal vote process is not a good thing. Harvesting info – without it being made crystal clear that that is what is happening – is dubious, but worse the whole notion that any political party has any role in handling any documentation related to the voting process, even if the voting process itself retains integrity, is a bad look and undermines the very important notion that our voting system is handled entirely by a professional and completely independent electoral commission. Faith in the system etc etc.
There is no need for this bit of dodginess; it should be stopped.
If I was thinking of voting postal, I’d ignore the crap sent by my local “Liberal” member and apply directly to the AEC.
P.S. if Labor was like the Coalition they’d find a way to suppress the postal vote when in office.
EDIT: “Security” questions:
A. Place of birth (town/city)
B. Company first worked for (????? including the crap jobs I did while a student?)
C. Last school you attended
D. Make / model of my first car (Datsun 1200 if it’s any of your business)
E. Middle name of my eldest child.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 11:25 am
Yes they do!
So how factual were they, or were focusing on baseless fear?
Fulvio, if you do want to vote by post, use the application form (NOT ballot papers!) that the Libs have sent to you and send it back in their reply-paid envelope. They will then mark you down as one of theirs and forward it to the AEC, who will send you the actual ballot papers. Then the Libs will overestimate their anticipated postal votes by one – a small deception but fun.
OtOH, if you don’t need a postal vote, as someone else has suggested, put some Labor or Green or Commie propaganda in the reply-paid and send it to them. I have heard that some even attach it to a brick – personally I wouldn’t but it’s up to you how nasty you really want to be to the Nasty Party.
Jackol @ #242 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Oh, right oh!
Location based mobile phone numbers is a reality?
The AEC handing out ballot papers for parties to distribute is not nonsense?
Ballot papers being produced before nominations have even closed is not nonsense?
Seriously?