The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. According to Geoffrey Robertson:
    If Assange was a Yank, he would be saved (from the US Government) by the “First Amendment”, but because he is Australian that will not apply!!!

    The NY Times which published the same stuff as Wikileaks has not been charged.

  2. Jen Robinson@suigenerisjen
    38m38 minutes ago
    From #Assange: The US warrant was issued in December 2017 and is for conspiracy with Chelsea Manning @xychelsea in early 2010.

    How ironic that Julian holed himself up from 2012 to 2016 in fear of a US extradition order that was nonexistent.

    And doubly ironic that it’s the Trump Administration which he and his organisation assisted by hacking the DNC servers that issued a warrant for him.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #902 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    EGW,

    Slandering Folau will not get you very far, comrade.

    Why would I take the word of a lawyer on logic?

    Folau has not been slandered.
    I am not a lawyer.
    I can think logically and join dots.
    Discrimination on the basis of sexuality is unlawful.
    Folau signed a contract requiring he refrain from making hate comments on the basis of sexuality.

    Open and shut case.

  4. Scotty did sound a bit wierd this morning, talking slowly, no shouting, and with amnesia about the past 6 years of chaos. What did the Courier Mail’s body language exper think?

    “Body language expert Dr Louise Mahler told News Corp both leaders were “faking it to make it” as their first election speeches contained telling signs about their behaviours.

    She said the Prime Minister’s election announcement showed insecurity and tension.

    “The up-down up-down eye movement just as he announced the election date is a huge sign of a lack of leadership and insecurity,” she said.

    His poor use of breath and intonation of words unveiled a “fumbling” of words, leading him into a “vocal fry” at the end of his sentences.

    “It means the air flow is restricted, when you lower the air to 1/6 of what you need to make normal sound, you get malfunction of the vocal cords,” she said.

    “The Kardashians do this all the time as do people in sales.”

    When he spoke about the “future” he pronounced the word as “futcha”, showing he had a tight jaw and that his diaphragm was jammed.

  5. Yashar Ali Verified account@yashar
    Update: Julian Assange has been arrested “on behalf of the United States,” London Police confirm.

    Malcolm NanceVerified account@MalcolmNance
    9m9 minutes ago
    So if Assnage was arrested on an International Sealed warrent issued before Muller report dropped then we will see him in Eastern District if Virginia by tomorrow.

  6. So funny watching the relatively unknown Greens’ candidate for Warringah making fools of Abbott and the Palmer candidate on Paul Murray Live. She’s the only left winger in a pub full of far right nutters taking part in a debate broadcast on the conservative propaganda channel known as Sky News. Labor and Zali Steggall both declined to participate in the debate. Such a hostile crowd and atmosphere for a Green to be in but she’s really doing a fantastic job. I’m going to go and look her name up now. I feel bad not knowing who she is! Star in the marking.

  7. GG why is it a strawman argument to compare hateful homophobic views with hateful white supremacist views?

    Surely only a homophobe would think that.

  8. “He’s tightening up, he hasn’t got enough freedom of airflow, he’s uncertain, he’s trying to get everything across as certainty but there are little physical giveaways,” she said.

    “They are tiny little things but they show signs of stress.”

    She said Mr Morrison’s clenched fists were related to his diaphragm being jammed.

    “It looks strong and good but it’s something that says he has concerns behind it.”

    Dr Mahler said the speed and volume of his speech were peripheral issues but his airflow was an issue.

    “You never run out of air you only run into tension and he’s getting tension in his body,” she said.

  9. a r @ #894 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:54 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #862 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    What fresh bullshit is this?

    Clearly Folau wasn’t denied any right to express his opinion because we’ve all heard what his opinion is. It has been expressed.

    Clearly Folau’s opinion was not private because otherwise we wouldn’t all know about it. It has been made public.

    The right to freely express an opinion stops at not having to face state-sanctioned legal penalties for doing so. Everybody has the right to express their opinions and not wind up in jail for it. Nobody has a right to express their opinions in a magic vacuum where endorsing abhorrent views doesn’t produce any consequences whatsoever.

    You’ve got a right to condemn gay people, or blacks, or women, or whatever as fiercely as you like. And everyone who hears you doing so has every right to refuse to employ you, buy your products, give you the time of day, or otherwise engage with your socially. As long as you’re not thrown in jail, precisely zero of your free-speech rights have been violated.

    Like, seriously:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Take some personal responsibility for your backwards views. Keep them to yourself, or accept the social consequences for not doing so. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

    Mate, I prefer short and pithy to long and pissy.

    My views are that people are entitled to an opinion and to express their POV. Folau’s views are pretty standard extremist Christian. But, not new or particularly dangerous.

    I think there are a lot of perpetually outraged desperately looking to be outraged. here. You might fit the profile. God bless you!

  10. It’s interesting in The Guardian, regarding Assange, there are statements from from UK, Ecuador, Russian Governments but not a squeak from the Australian Government.

  11. My free speech argument..
    You have the right to free speech- go in to work and call your a boss a f^&&wit…
    And they have the right to sack you.
    Simple.

  12. EGW @ #906 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #902 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    EGW,

    Slandering Folau will not get you very far, comrade.

    Why would I take the word of a lawyer on logic?

    Folau has not been slandered.
    I am not a lawyer.
    I can think logically and join dots.
    Discrimination on the basis of sexuality is unlawful.
    Folau signed a contract requiring he refrain from making hate comments on the basis of sexuality.

    Open and shut case.

    Where do I send the colouring book?

  13. Greensborough Growler @ #917 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:12 pm

    EGW @ #906 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #902 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    EGW,

    Slandering Folau will not get you very far, comrade.

    Why would I take the word of a lawyer on logic?

    Folau has not been slandered.
    I am not a lawyer.
    I can think logically and join dots.
    Discrimination on the basis of sexuality is unlawful.
    Folau signed a contract requiring he refrain from making hate comments on the basis of sexuality.

    Open and shut case.

    Where do I send the colouring book?

    Looks like you have totally lost the plot as you are now babbling about colouring books.

  14. The home office has confirmed the US request for Assange’s extradition is for an alleged “computer related offence”.

    A Home Office spokesperson said:“We can confirm that Julian Assange was arrested in relation to a provisional extradition request from the United States of America.

  15. Whether a over paid sports person, or anyone with any status puts out a racist, sexist, bigot, anti Semite, Islamophobic or indeed a homophobic post out on social media, should be smart enough to know they may well be risking their career, unless you work for the Murdoch press that is!

    If you’re too dumb enough to see that, then you have only yourself to blame

  16. But he didn’t did he? He uttered a statement that probably 25% of the population agree with. Gee, he said I’m going to a make believe world underground (as an atheist), instead of his preferred make believe world. Big deal!

  17. EGW @ #922 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #917 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:12 pm

    EGW @ #906 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #902 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    EGW,

    Slandering Folau will not get you very far, comrade.

    Why would I take the word of a lawyer on logic?

    Folau has not been slandered.
    I am not a lawyer.
    I can think logically and join dots.
    Discrimination on the basis of sexuality is unlawful.
    Folau signed a contract requiring he refrain from making hate comments on the basis of sexuality.

    Open and shut case.

    Where do I send the colouring book?

    Looks like you have totally lost the plot as you are now babbling about colouring books.

    I don’t know about you, but I have a fighting fish on a long line who will provide a good feed.

  18. I don’t believe Assange deserves to spend the rest of his life in prison, but he certainly deserves to answer for his activities. Esp in relation to the 2016 presidential election.

  19. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 10:08 pm

    … Folau’s views are pretty standard extremist Christian. But, not new or particularly dangerous.

    “Plain vanilla”?

  20. I don’t give a shit how many people would agree with him Clem. If any of these said people who agree with him were in the same job, they would be quite rightly sacked.

  21. GG – answering my question to you by posting U2’s song (I still havent found what I’m looking for) doesn’t answer my question. Why is it ok to be a homophobe but not a racist bigot?

  22. So is ScumMo is now Shouty McScarredface? He should be.

    This article by George Megalogenis sums up ScumMo’s position quite well – no boats in sight and no policy achievements to sell. It is a little harsh on Shorten, highlighting his political apparatchik career but ignoring the substantial policy positions Labor has laid out recently in ending tax rorts and acting on climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-tragedy-of-the-2019-election-20190404-p51b07.html

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #927 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:18 pm

    EGW @ #922 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #917 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:12 pm

    EGW @ #906 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #902 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    EGW,

    Slandering Folau will not get you very far, comrade.

    Why would I take the word of a lawyer on logic?

    Folau has not been slandered.
    I am not a lawyer.
    I can think logically and join dots.
    Discrimination on the basis of sexuality is unlawful.
    Folau signed a contract requiring he refrain from making hate comments on the basis of sexuality.

    Open and shut case.

    Where do I send the colouring book?

    Looks like you have totally lost the plot as you are now babbling about colouring books.

    I don’t know about you, but I have a fighting fish on a long line who will provide a good feed.

    Hmmm completely random and disordered thought patterns…jumps from colouring books to fishing… is there a psychiatrist online?

  24. “… Folau’s views are pretty standard extremist Christian. But, not new or particularly dangerous.”

    Why are these views not dangerous? Enough public figures here legitimised such hateful views of muslims and then a few years later a nutter with a gun shoots dead fifty innocent muslims in a neighborouring country. How many LGBTI people have been beaten or even murdered by people holding exactly these sorts of views?

  25. Confessions says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 10:12 pm
    Vic:

    CNN commentary on the Assange arrest is gold.
    ——-

    I liked this one:

    gamechanger
    @gamecha78290593
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Replying to @cnni

    They had to make him an example just like Manning,whistle blowers are the worst nightmare of any govt or state In their wrongdoings and that my friend is called punishment for revealing the truth that some may call secrets.

    0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

  26. Kate @ #936 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:21 pm

    GG – answering my question to you by posting U2’s song (I still havent found what I’m looking for) doesn’t answer my question. Why is it ok to be a homophobe but not a racist bigot?

    You’re in a real “Play Misty for Me” mood tonight aren’t you?

    I haven’t had a stalker for awhile. Could be fun during this election.

  27. Confessions says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 10:20 pm
    I don’t believe Assange deserves to spend the rest of his life in prison, but he certainly deserves to answer for his activities. Esp in relation to the 2016 presidential election.

    But the rape stuff you’re cool with?

  28. I do not see Assange and Manning as comparable cases. One took considerable risks to expose wrongdoing and suffered for it (Manning).

    The other achieved fame and praise for exposing some truths, but also publishing some mistruths, while not publishing many other wrongdoings (eg did nothing with the Panama papers) and eventually becoming a partisan player of political games. Selective transparency is not a virtue.

    If Assange is charged he should receive a transparent and fair trial but I will not feel sorry for him if convicted.

  29. Interesting on The Guardians site list of the ten most popular articles: Assange is the issue at 7 of the 10 Numbers: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8. 9 and 10!!!!!

  30. “Firefox,
    As I think it was explained to you yesterday, focusing on Adani is a boutique concern of The Greens primarily. A party of government, such as Labor is and The Greens will never be, has to take a host of considerations into account and bald statements in black and white, such as The Greens make and want Labor to make, serve no useful purpose.”

    Again, the Greens are currently in government in the ACT and have been part of multiple other governments in the past. I know Labor has a born to rule mentality and is a part of the two party establishment. You don’t need to tell me that.

    I didn’t ask you to give me spin about what Labor may do. I asked you what YOU personally think about Adani. Should it happen or not? Please don’t dodge the question like a politician.

    “Labor will be prudent and considerate of the issues that animate The Greens if they get to form the next government of Australia and The Greens should return the favour.”

    So we should just sell out the environment to make Labor happy, is that what you’re suggesting? Maybe you’d like us to sell out the innocent asylum seekers locked up on remote islands just to make things politically easier for Labor too? Sorry, it doesn’t work like that.

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