The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. “‘The world would not give a toss about Assange or about what the Australian Government does or does not do to support him.’”

    Yeah, ok, the world doesn’t care about Assange. It’s just major breaking news all over the place right now but nobody cares. Righto lol.

  2. EGW @ #842 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #836 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    Desert Qlder @ #832 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:12 pm

    Doyley,

    Folau’s homophobia is not a hill to die on old mate.

    I’m sure RA had the requisite clauses in his contract signed only a couple of months ago.

    I’m sure the suit will be that those clauses are unfair and illegal.

    They would be requiring him to not act in a manner in breach of anti-discrimination legislation.
    Good thing you are not his lawyer.

    I said earlier that the various football codes acting as defacto/pseudo enforcers of imaginary laws is what is about to be called in to question.

    I may not be a lawyer. But, I understand that denying a person their livelihood over a morality feelpinion with no legal standing might become an issue.

  3. guytaur says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:19 pm
    GG

    Even the Pope when preaching hate is not acting in a Christian manner.

    guytaur, the Catholic teaching is that it’s “ok” to be gay, it’s just that if you are gay you can’t have sex.

    The implication being God both makes you gay but gives you the grace/gift to be chaste and celibate!!!

    I think it’s an anthropology that needs a wee bit of revision!!

  4. “That doesn’t rule out US extradition – it just means the US would have to rule out the death penalty.”

    As soon as the Americans get their hands on him they’ll do whatever they like with him.

  5. Firefox

    You are dead right about Assange.

    It is between us and the US.

    Am I wrong, weren’t the squirts here saying the Yanks would leave him alone?

  6. Should a Commonwealth public servant be disclipined or even sacked for posting on face book or other social media a point of view contrary to a policy of his or her department of employment.

    For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    I think that would depend on whether they’re a senior executive/public figure who would be seen to be speaking on behalf of the Department or not. For example, I would certainly think it reasonable for the Secretary of Home Affairs to be moved on in that situation; but not some random EL2 who isn’t identifiable as a public servant.

  7. Boerwar,
    You’ll have to convey to Bluey that I appreciate the kind offer of a dinner date but I will have to knock it back because I am busy at the moment with election campaigning. 🙂

  8. Bushfire Bill

    You exhibit your usual incorrect reasonings in cases which involve allegations of sexual impropriety. There is a pattern to this.

    Your statement that “it did not happen” is the finding, is completely wrong.

    This case was Rush V News, not Rush V Norvill. There was simply no finding in this case about whether or not the subject conduct Occurred. The only finding was that the respondents were unable to prove ie convince the judge, that what they (ie the Telegraph) printed was true. The onus to prove that it was true, was the Telegraph’s, and they failed to do so.

    As I suspect you are well aware of, failure to prove that something happened is not the same as proving that it did not happen.

    Whilst the judge reflected on the reliability of Ms Norvill’s evidence, this was orbiter dicta ie extraneous comment. The only finding is that the Telegraph could not prove that what they wrote was the truth.

  9. Kate @ #857 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    If Folau didn’t like the terms of his contract he shouldn’t have signed it.

    So, if an employee takes a job that denies them annual leave, sick leave and superannuation then they should just suck it up despite those clauses are illegal?

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

  10. Kate,
    Israel Folau signed the contract for the big bucks and probably thought he was relatively immune due to being the highest scoring player in the game.

  11. Greensborough Growler @ #864 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    Kate @ #857 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    If Folau didn’t like the terms of his contract he shouldn’t have signed it.

    So, if an employee takes a job that denies them annual leave, sick leave and superannuation then they should just suck it up despite those clauses are illegal?

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    Completely false analogy.

    Employment conditions are the subject of legislation.

    Requiring in a contract that a person elevated to high public stature, by virtue of their association with the other party to the contract, refrain from comment that will cause embarrassment to that party is hardly unreasonable.

  12. shiftaling

    Jason Rodrigues
    The book Assange was holding when he was arrested appears to be Gore Vidal’s History of the National Security State.

  13. BREAKING: Russia says the UK is ‘strangling freedom’ after arrest of Julian Assange

    Russia is just playing for the cameras. Assange is headed for Trumpland, where he’ll disappear into a hole somewhere and be forever unable to spill what he knows about Trump or Putin.

  14. The reality of the situation is that top-level elite sportspeople are in the entertainment business.

    They’re not really being paid to belt a bit of leather around a paddock; they’re being paid to represent a brand. That’s a 24/7 job, not an 8/5 one (something that is well compensated for by the pay).

  15. shiftaling

    It has been reported the book Assange was holding when he was arrested appears to be Gore Vidal’s History of the National Security State.

  16. So, Julian has been expelled because he wouldn’t do his chores.

    I’m surprised they put up with his antics for nearly seven years…

    From October last year:

    A judge has rejected WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s request to loosen new living requirements, including paying for his internet and cleaning up after his cat, that he says are meant to push him into leaving the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-30/judge-rejects-assange-attempt-to-avoid-cleaning-and-paying-up/10446434

  17. Ah that’s very interesting, thanks! I thought I recognised the photo, but now that little piece of random info has made me want to read that. After a confusing minute of googling “Jason Rodrigues” that is haha

  18. Folau tweets were hate speech no more no less.

    Denigrating others as lesser people’s and threatrning them if they did not live their lives the way he wanted them to.

    No different to the apartheid era for which the Springboks were isolated.

    Would anyone tolerate any player saying kaffirs should know their place in society.

    We don’t tolerate the type of hate speech directed to Goodes and others.

  19. A judge has rejected WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s request to loosen new living requirements, including paying for his internet and cleaning up after his cat, that he says are meant to push him into leaving the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

    Ah I just knew ‘daily living protocols’ was personal hygiene related!

  20. Mark Newton @NewtonMark

    The worst outcome for #Assange will be if a British judge sentences him to a fine for jumping bail then lets him go, and he gets on a plane and goes back to Melbourne obsessing about the knowledge that he’s just absolutely wasted 7 years of his life in a cupboard.

  21. Mark Newton @NewtonMark
    41m41 minutes ago
    The worst outcome for #Assange will be if a British judge sentences him to a fine for jumping bail then lets him go, and he gets on a plane and goes back to Melbourne obsessing about the knowledge that he’s just absolutely wasted 7 years of his life in a cupboard.

    A cupboard under the stairs, no less.

  22. Sweden’t chief Prosecutor Ingrid Isgren, has issued this statement: “This is news to us too, so we have not been able to take a position on the information that is now available. We also do not know why he is under arrest. We are following the developments.”

  23. My only interest in Assange is how it may play into the Trump thing. Would Trump really want him in the US and accessible to investigators and a grand jury?

    Folau: I he had clauses specific to him StingTFU on his views about people, and he breached that clause then it proper he got sacked. Nothing to do with human rights, freedom of speech or religion. He’s just being a dick.

    ” For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    I think that would depend on whether they’re a senior executive/public figure who would be seen to be speaking on behalf of the Department or not. For example, I would certainly think it reasonable for the Secretary of Home Affairs to be moved on in that situation; but not some random EL2 who isn’t identifiable as a public servant.”

    Agreed. There is no point of equivalence between the above and Folau’s situation. Opposition to offshore detention is a political matter, not an industrial one znd should be considered under freedom of speech.

  24. EGW @ #868 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #864 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    Kate @ #857 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    If Folau didn’t like the terms of his contract he shouldn’t have signed it.

    So, if an employee takes a job that denies them annual leave, sick leave and superannuation then they should just suck it up despite those clauses are illegal?

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    Completely false analogy.

    Employment conditions are the subject of legislation.

    Requiring in a contract that a person elevated to high public stature, by virtue of their association with the other party to the contract, refrain from comment that will cause embarrassment to that party is hardly unreasonable.

    Completely false analogy.

    Is that lawyer speak for I haven’t got an answer?

    I’m not a lawyer. But if the contract is full of unreasonable restrictions, then it’s a crock.

  25. Democracy is an absolute, it’s like being pregnant, you either are or you are not. You can’t be a ‘bit pregnant’ so I too have reservations about Folau’s treatment. In saying that, I think he is a deluded nut job, but I think the price he should be paying, is denigration for his views, not losing his livelihood. I’m thinking he would have a pretty good case to argue restraint of trade.

  26. Fozzie that’s gold. There needs to be a “Daisy” style negative ad -15 seconds is almost too long for it- with Morrison invoking “trust” and then BAM that photo with Turnbull, shown with almost subliminal brevity before the authorised-by message.

  27. Greensborough Growler @ #862 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    What fresh bullshit is this?

    Clearly Folau wasn’t denied any right to express his opinion because we’ve all heard what his opinion is. It has been expressed.

    Clearly Folau’s opinion was not private because otherwise we wouldn’t all know about it. It has been made public.

    The right to freely express an opinion stops at not having to face state-sanctioned legal penalties for doing so. Everybody has the right to express their opinions and not wind up in jail for it. Nobody has a right to express their opinions in a magic vacuum where endorsing abhorrent views doesn’t produce any consequences whatsoever.

    You’ve got a right to condemn gay people, or blacks, or women, or whatever as fiercely as you like. And everyone who hears you doing so has every right to refuse to employ you, buy your products, give you the time of day, or otherwise engage with your socially. As long as you’re not thrown in jail, precisely zero of your free-speech rights have been violated.

    Like, seriously:

    Take some personal responsibility for your backwards views. Keep them to yourself, or accept the social consequences for not doing so. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

  28. Jaeger @ 9.49pm

    If that happens, and if Mr Assange has any sense (which I doubt), he will try to get on a QANTAS London to Perth flight so that he can’t be detained during a stopover somewhere (like Bangkok).

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #888 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:52 pm

    EGW @ #868 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #864 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    Kate @ #857 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    If Folau didn’t like the terms of his contract he shouldn’t have signed it.

    So, if an employee takes a job that denies them annual leave, sick leave and superannuation then they should just suck it up despite those clauses are illegal?

    Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    Completely false analogy.

    Employment conditions are the subject of legislation.

    Requiring in a contract that a person elevated to high public stature, by virtue of their association with the other party to the contract, refrain from comment that will cause embarrassment to that party is hardly unreasonable.

    Completely false analogy.

    Is that lawyer speak for I haven’t got an answer?

    I’m not a lawyer. But if the contract is full of unreasonable restrictions, then it’s a crock.

    Yeah, like unreasonable restrictions that he refrain from hate speech that is unlawful.

    Yes, you are not a lawyer. Nor do you think logically.

  30. Denying Folau his human rights to express a private opinion is rubbish and should not be allowed to stand.

    What a load of bullshit

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