The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. Barney in Vung Tau @ #795 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:54 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:41 pm

    ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:39 pm

    I feel a bit guilty eating calamari but they cook it so good in Adelaide.’

    Do occies talk about eating and cooking humans? No.

    Bluey can’t even start a fire, so how could he cook us?

    Wouldn’t it go out? 😆

  2. If anyone is keeping score .. My election prediction is 75 seats ALP, 70 seats LNP, 6 others. ALP governs at the behest of the 1 Green amongst the others.

  3. Late Riser @ #790 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:53 pm

    The issue is can you deny people’s rights to express themselves because of a commercial contract.

    I don’t think he has been denied that right. He has been denied the right to speak for an organisation.

    He wasn’t. He’s been sacked because the organisation he is contracted to does not agree with his personal views expressed on social media.

  4. ‘EGW says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:53 pm

    frednk @ #746 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:28 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Deny God and you will suffer eternal death

    I assume it is the same deal; a loss of identity; who cares.

    “Death is all in the mind. Once you’re dead, you forget all about it.”’

    Theologically, this is correct but not for the reasons you suppose.
    There can be no ‘you’ in eternal life with God. The propensity for human projection, as evidenced in your commentary, is a theological dead end.

  5. Who owns the game? The game is paid for by people (corporations) who make the elite players very wealthy. At a grassroots level, it’s owned by the people more. If it were owned by the people at the highest level, it would be as an amateur sport…

  6. doyley @ #681 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    They are terminating his contract because he deliberately flouted one of its key clauses. Nobody gives a flying fuck about his idiotic personal views. He was warned last time, don’t condemn people publicly because of who they are. It is against the tenets of a decent society, and specifically directly against the basic principles of the Rugby Union. He agreed with the condition being put in his contract, then less than 4 months after he signed it, he deliberately flouted it. He can piss off, and go and preach his perverted views to any idiots who will listen. Just not as a representative of the Australian Rugby Union, and the rugby community.

  7. c@t
    Poroti has kindly given Bluey a reference to thermite, which burns under water. Bluey invites you to a dinner involving roast you in his rock pool.

  8. Boerwar @ #804 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    ‘EGW says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:53 pm

    frednk @ #746 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:28 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Deny God and you will suffer eternal death

    I assume it is the same deal; a loss of identity; who cares.

    “Death is all in the mind. Once you’re dead, you forget all about it.”’

    Theologically, this is correct but not for the reasons you suppose.
    There can be no ‘you’ in eternal life with God. The propensity for human projection, as evidenced in your commentary, is a theological dead end.

    Who said anything about God?

  9. Just one more post from me on Folau.

    Should a Commonwealth public servant be disclipined or even sacked for posting on face book or other social media a point of view contrary to a policy of his or her department of employment.

    For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    Cheers.

  10. yabba @ #806 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:58 pm

    doyley @ #681 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    They are terminating his contract because he deliberately flouted one of its key clauses. Nobody gives a flying fuck about his idiotic personal views. He was warned last time, don’t condemn people publicly because of who they are. It is against the tenets of a decent society, and specifically directly against the basic principles of the Rugby Union. He agreed with the condition being put in his contract, then less than 4 months after he signed it, he deliberately flouted it. He can piss off, and go and preach his perverted views to any idiots who will listen. Just not as a representative of the Australian Rugby Union, and the rugby community.

    Sounds like he would make an ideal Liberal candidate in the mould of Scrott, Sukkar, Roberts et al.

  11. BREAKING NEWS ABOUT BOBS CONVOY.
    The Convoy has now changed the Rally times leaving ANZAC day a non rally event day – common sense has prevailed.

    8. Wednesday 24th April 2019
    Hervey Bay to Rockhampton/Yeppoon
    Rally at Bell Park, Emu Park, 5-6 PM
    9. Thursday 25th April 2019
    Rockhampton/Yeppoon to Airlie Beach
    Travel independently to Airlie Beach

  12. Vic:

    And his cult fans are finally going to get what they’ve been dreaming about for 7 years: extradition to the US.

    Irony of ironies that it’s president Trump.

    Just before the stroke of midnight on September 20, 2016, at the height of last year’s presidential election, the WikiLeaks Twitter account sent a private direct message to Donald Trump Jr., the Republican nominee’s oldest son and campaign surrogate. “A PAC run anti-Trump site putintrump.org is about to launch,” WikiLeaks wrote. “The PAC is a recycled pro-Iraq war PAC. We have guessed the password. It is ‘putintrump.’ See ‘About’ for who is behind it. Any comments?” (The site, which has since become a joint project with Mother Jones, was founded by Rob Glaser, a tech entrepreneur, and was funded by Progress for USA Political Action Committee.)

    The next morning, about 12 hours later, Trump Jr. responded to WikiLeaks. “Off the record I don’t know who that is, but I’ll ask around,” he wrote on September 21, 2016. “Thanks.”

    https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/545738/

  13. EGW @ #812 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    yabba @ #806 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:58 pm

    doyley @ #681 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    They are terminating his contract because he deliberately flouted one of its key clauses. Nobody gives a flying fuck about his idiotic personal views. He was warned last time, don’t condemn people publicly because of who they are. It is against the tenets of a decent society, and specifically directly against the basic principles of the Rugby Union. He agreed with the condition being put in his contract, then less than 4 months after he signed it, he deliberately flouted it. He can piss off, and go and preach his perverted views to any idiots who will listen. Just not as a representative of the Australian Rugby Union, and the rugby community.

    Sounds like he would make an ideal Liberal candidate in the mould of Scrott, Sukkar, Roberts et al.

    Yabba’s a well known bigot on this blog.

    He just likes to remind everyone of that fact from time to time.

  14. doyley @ #811 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Just one more post from me on Folau.

    Should a Commonwealth public servant be disclipined or even sacked for posting on face book or other social media a point of view contrary to a policy of his or her department of employment.

    For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    Cheers.

    If they make their identity known, and they are widely known to be associated with the department involved, then yes.

    If they are in an unrelated department, and do not promote themselves as being a public servant, then no.

  15. doyley @ #808 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    Just one more post from me on Folau.

    Should a Commonwealth public servant be disclipined or even sacked for posting on face book or other social media a point of view contrary to a policy of his or her department of employment.

    For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    Cheers.

    Yes. Esp if it contravenes their employer’s policy on social media and upholding the values and reputation of the organisation.

  16. It seems both the Yanks and the Swedes still want him.

    Elisabeth Massi Fritz, lawyer for one of the two women who accused Assange in 2010, told Swedish media:

    “My client and I have just received the news that Assange has been arrested. That’s what we have been waiting and hoping for for almost seven years has now happened as clearly a shock to my client. We will do everything we can to ensure that the prosecutors resume the Swedish preliminary investigation so that Assange can be extradited to Sweden and prosecuted for rape.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/live/2019/apr/11/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-arrested-at-the-ecuadorean-embassy-live-updates

  17. Jeff

    Good to hear.
    Even if it does mean a temporary win for the false patriots.

    I still stand by my earlier comments about my advice to Labor if it had gone ahead.

    Attacking the Greens and not the false patriots would have been a mistake imo.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #817 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    EGW @ #812 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    yabba @ #806 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:58 pm

    doyley @ #681 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    They are terminating his contract because he deliberately flouted one of its key clauses. Nobody gives a flying fuck about his idiotic personal views. He was warned last time, don’t condemn people publicly because of who they are. It is against the tenets of a decent society, and specifically directly against the basic principles of the Rugby Union. He agreed with the condition being put in his contract, then less than 4 months after he signed it, he deliberately flouted it. He can piss off, and go and preach his perverted views to any idiots who will listen. Just not as a representative of the Australian Rugby Union, and the rugby community.

    Sounds like he would make an ideal Liberal candidate in the mould of Scrott, Sukkar, Roberts et al.

    Yabba’s a well known bigot on this blog.

    He just likes to remind everyone of that fact from time to time.

    He seems quite rational. You on the other hand….

  19. EGW,

    It’s a time worn tactic of imbeciles on this blog to traduce Christians.

    I’m sure they welcome you with open legs!

  20. Confessions @ #819 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:04 pm

    doyley @ #808 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    Just one more post from me on Folau.

    Should a Commonwealth public servant be disclipined or even sacked for posting on face book or other social media a point of view contrary to a policy of his or her department of employment.

    For example , should a employee of Department of Home Affairs be sacked for posting on social media opposition to offshore detention ?

    Cheers.

    Yes. Esp if it contravenes their employer’s policy on social media and upholding the values and reputation of the organisation.

    He’s only a Rugby player.

  21. doyley:

    It’s a reality of today’s workforce. I don’t post anything on social media that my employer could construe as damaging to its reputation, and our organisation has very clear guidelines about social media commentary that are issued to all employees.

    It’s not difficult to adhere to the policy.

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #827 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:09 pm

    EGW,

    It’s a time worn tactic of imbeciles on this blog to traduce Christians.

    I’m sure they welcome you with open legs!

    I have noticed in my life’s journey, that those who profess their “Christianity” loudest seem to have the attitudes most removed from their messiah.
    Look no further than our temporary PM and his fellow ‘happy clappers’.
    Feel free to identify with them.

  23. Doyley,

    Folau’s homophobia is not a hill to die on old mate.

    I’m sure RA had the requisite clauses in his contract signed only a couple of months ago.

  24. EGW,

    As a younger lad I worked in the tax office. I cannot recall the number of times I was standing in the public bar of “ the local hangout “ half full of hops bagging management, individual supervisors or tax office policy in general.

    A different world.

    Twitter and I would not have been a good combination !

    Cheers.

  25. The Australian government must immediately provide consular assistance to Assange and ensure that his human rights are not violated, as they almost certainly will be. He is an Australian and has the same rights as any of us. If the Americans get their hands on him he’ll be tortured and probably executed. How convenient that this happens now. Apparently EU countries cannot extradite someone to a country where they will face torture or the possibility of the death penalty. The plan is obviously for the UK to hold onto him until Brexit is complete (if that ever happens) and then they’ll throw him to the wolves in America. They may be in caretaker mode now but the spineless Morrison government needs to protect their citizens. Shorten must promise to demand Assange be repatriated to Australia of elected. All options should now be on the table in order for Australia to protect our fellow citizen. The world is watching us and we cannot just be a pathetic lapdog of America as the right so loves to be.

  26. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:02 pm

    Boerwar
    Bluey could even bring out the marshmallows.’

    Any last supper should always have bells and whistles on it.

  27. Firefox @ #836 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    The Australian government must immediately provide consular assistance to Assange and ensure that his human rights are not violated, as they almost certainly will be. He is an Australian and has the same rights as any of us. If the Americans get their hands on him he’ll be tortured and probably executed. How convenient that this happens now. Apparently EU countries cannot extradite someone to a country where they will face torture or the possibility of the death penalty. The plan is obviously for the UK to hold onto him until Brexit is complete (if that ever happens) and then they’ll throw him to the wolves in America. They may be in caretaker mode now but the spineless Morrison government needs to protect their citizens. Shorten must promise to demand Assange be repatriated to Australia of elected. All options should now be on the table in order for Australia to protect our fellow citizen. The world is watching us and we cannot just be a pathetic lapdog of America as the right so loves to be.

    Blah! Blah! Blah!

  28. The Swedes did drop the charges. However, he is arrested for not obeying the lawful direction of a British court.

    On Assanges height, he was not much taller than me so I would have said about 180cm but he used to seem creepy as he went grey in his 20s. I knew him sort of in the early 2000’s.

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #836 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    Desert Qlder @ #832 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:12 pm

    Doyley,

    Folau’s homophobia is not a hill to die on old mate.

    I’m sure RA had the requisite clauses in his contract signed only a couple of months ago.

    I’m sure the suit will be that those clauses are unfair and illegal.

    They would be requiring him to not act in a manner in breach of anti-discrimination legislation.
    Good thing you are not his lawyer.

  30. Firefox says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:14 pm

    The world is watching us…’
    Classic Greens presumption.
    You don’t speak for the world.
    I’ll make you a counter offer.
    ‘The world would not give a toss about Assange or about what the Australian Government does or does not do to support him.’

  31. GG

    Even the Pope when preaching hate is not acting in a Christian manner.

    Its a very difficult position the Catholic Clerics put themselves in. They need to let the preaching about homosexuality lapse. Just as they have to with condoms because of its disease prevention functions.

    The root of the problem is the sperm being sacred. Let that go and being opposed to abortion you can still be a cheer leader for sex education and birth control techniques which prevent abortion. A whole lot of other things.

    In other words will the religion die if it changes that?

    Theologians can argue that. In a secular society we should take note of the health effects of condoms and have done so.

    Preaching about homosexuality will fall into the same category at some point.

  32. It seems that the USA has promised to constrain its barbarism and not kill Assange.

    James Ball

    @jamesrbuk
    · 56m
    This is carefully phrased: Ecuador sought and received guarantees Assange wouldn’t be extradited where he could face “torture or the death penalty”.

    That doesn’t rule out US extradition – it just means the US would have to rule out the death penalty.

  33. The Swedes did drop the charges. However, he is arrested for not obeying the lawful direction of a British court.

    According to the article Swamprat linked to, the lawyer for the Swedish women is reportedly looking forward to Assange being returned to Sweden to be prosecuted on rape charges. If the charges have been dropped, then how is this possible?

  34. ‘The Toorak Toff says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:22 pm

    With Herbert, Lindsay, Indi and perhaps Braddon potential Liberal pick-ups, this is no cakewalk for Labor.’
    Let them eat cakewalks?
    You reactionaries never change.
    That noise you can hear in the background is tumbrils.

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