The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. C@tmomma:

    I read some time ago that Assange’s teeth are in terrible shape, which can in turn affect mind and body.
    Perhaps that might explain his appearance.

  2. Boerwar @ #747 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:30 pm

    ‘Ante Meridian says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:25 pm

    Boerwar,

    So in future , when a sportsman is punished for expressing an opinion which you agree with, but which offends his sponsors, I will expect you to be the first to support the decision. Because we will be in the new ‘now’.

    Unless your rules only apply on 11/4/2019.’

    What’s with the ‘sportsman’ schtick? I don’t know why I bother wasting a single sentence on sophists such as yourself. The bastard was potentially damaging his his gay AND his hetero team mates and damaging the Code. In real time.

    If religiously bastardizing gays becomes all the socially-acceptable go some time in the future, and it well could because homophobia is nothing if not persistent, then no doubt he would be able to rejoin the game and get back to his personal sicko priorities.

    Who’s Sophy Now?

  3. Jane Caro
    @JaneCaro

    Israel Folau’s list of people headed for hell – I am so glad I am on it (atheist as charged sir) because judging by the rest of them, hell is clearly THE place to be! Save me from heaven, full of righteous bigots praying for the rapture – bad enough on twitter but eternity???!!!

    🙂

  4. Or maybe not 😆

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    5m5 minutes ago
    That bitch Assange can’t take a collar. Should have walked out like a man, head high.

  5. Re Octopi:

    Many years ago when I was a kid I was at the beach and saw a man who in those days we called a New Australian, probably from Greece, repeatedly picking up a small octopus by the tentacles and slapping it against the sea wall. It was weird and a little disturbing. Of course, he’d caught something to supplement his / his family’s dinner, but in those days it didn’t occur to me that anyone would be eating it. I think I must have assumed that he just didn’t like octopuses.

    Years later, of course, I found out that this was a standard way of tenderising the meat prior to cooking.

  6. Mavis Smith @ #750 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:32 pm

    C@tmomma:

    I read some time ago that Assange’s teeth are in terrible shape, which can in turn affect mind and body.
    Perhaps that might explain his appearance.

    Well, basic teeth hygiene should have been enough to keep most problems at bay. Dental Floss, Antibacterial mouthwash, dental brushes, a good toothbrush and toothpaste.

  7. C
    ‘Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    5m5 minutes ago
    That bitch Assange can’t take a collar.’

    ‘bitch’?
    Is what Folau’s got catching?

  8. Neera TandenVerified account@neeratanden
    5m5 minutes ago

    There are many cultists on this site, but the Assange cultists are the worst. Assange was the agent of a proto fascist state, Russia, to undermine democracy. That is fascist behavior. Anyone on the left should abhor what he did. Not celebrate it.

  9. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:34 pm

    Re Octopi:

    Many years ago when I was a kid I was at the beach and saw a man who in those days we called a New Australian, probably from Greece, repeatedly picking up a small octopus by the tentacles and slapping it against the sea wall. It was weird and a little disturbing. Of course, he’d caught something to supplement his / his family’s dinner, but in those days it didn’t occur to me that anyone would be eating it. I think I must have assumed that he just didn’t like octopuses.

    Years later, of course, I found out that this was a standard way of tenderising the meat prior to cooking’.

    When occies take over the world you guys are going to pay for this sort of thing.

  10. I wonder if Assange has got to the point that leaving the room causes high anxiety, and agoraphobic condition?

    I always thought he was a bit strange but it is possible he is now completely off his rocker. He might have to go straight into a mental health hospital.

  11. ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:38 pm

    I wonder if Assange has got to the point that leaving the room causes high anxiety, and agoraphobic condition?

    I always thought he was a bit strange but it is possible he is now completely off his rocker. He might have to go straight into a mental health hospital.’

    An interesting observation.

  12. Years ago, we booked us and the kids into a school holiday ‘rock pool experience’ at Booderee National Park (Jervis Bay).

    Turned up to find the four of us were the only participants.

    We had two rangers to ourselves, one of whom was a local indigenous man, who showed us how to persuade octopi to come out from under rock shelves.

  13. doyley @ #683 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    From the little I’ve read it was his public views that got him in trouble. No one was telling him to change his beliefs. If you represent an organisation you should have a regard for the organisation you represent. We might not like it, but the organisation has the right to promote itself.

    But where it gets troubling is by example, such as ‘taking the knee’ (American football) in protest, or the black power salute (Olympics 1968), in protest. How is that different? I think guytaur called it hate speech. I agree. And that makes it different. Hate speech is not a protest. And that is how we might judge the organisation, and the speech.

  14. ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:39 pm

    I feel a bit guilty eating calamari but they cook it so good in Adelaide.’

    Do occies talk about eating and cooking humans? No.

  15. Boerwar @ #760 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:36 pm

    ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:34 pm

    Re Octopi:

    Many years ago when I was a kid I was at the beach and saw a man who in those days we called a New Australian, probably from Greece, repeatedly picking up a small octopus by the tentacles and slapping it against the sea wall. It was weird and a little disturbing. Of course, he’d caught something to supplement his / his family’s dinner, but in those days it didn’t occur to me that anyone would be eating it. I think I must have assumed that he just didn’t like octopuses.

    Years later, of course, I found out that this was a standard way of tenderising the meat prior to cooking’.

    When occies take over the world you guys are going to pay for this sort of thing.

    Yeah, how many armies do the Octopi have?

  16. I wonder if Assange has got to the point that leaving the room causes high anxiety, and agoraphobic condition?

    In the video I posted of his arrest there is that air about him.

  17. Folau just highlights how some(?) religions advocate things that are outside the Society’s norms.

    Believe them if you want, but try and push them within the Society and there can be consequences.

    As a professional sportsman his comments put at risk the sport’s ability to raise the revenue to allow it to operate, which potential would impact many others.

    He could be considered to have been acting very selfishly.

    I have little sympathy for him.

  18. The wallabies are sponsored by QANTAS. Join the dots…

    Corporate sponsors can dictate the clauses in player contracts or threaten to or actually withdraw funding. You are representing the values of the controlling board as well…

  19. Late Riser @ #767 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:40 pm

    doyley @ #683 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    From the little I’ve read it was his public views that got him in trouble. No one was telling him to change his beliefs. If you represent an organisation you should have a regard for the organisation you represent. We might not like it, but the organisation has the right to promote itself.

    But where it gets troubling is by example, such as ‘taking the knee’ (American football) in protest, or the black power salute (Olympics 1968), in protest. How is that different? I think guytaur called it hate speech. I agree. And that makes it different. Hate speech is not a protest. And that is how we might judge the organisation, and the speech.

    The issue is can you deny people’s rights to express themselves because of a commercial contract.

  20. ‘Alpha Zero says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:45 pm

    The wallabies are sponsored by QANTAS. Join the dots…

    Corporate sponsors can dictate the clauses in player contracts or threaten to or actually withdraw funding. You are representing the values of the controlling board as well…’

    I understand that Mr Joyce is gay and he may well not have been amused. But, IMO, it goes well beyond the feelings of gays in the team, among the fans, or among the sponsors. Seriously, what hetero player would want divisive players like Folau in their team?

  21. St Julian has friends in high places.

    The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
    18m18 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Russia says the UK is ‘strangling freedom’ after arrest of Julian Assange

  22. Boerwar @ #782 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    ‘Alpha Zero says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:45 pm

    The wallabies are sponsored by QANTAS. Join the dots…

    Corporate sponsors can dictate the clauses in player contracts or threaten to or actually withdraw funding. You are representing the values of the controlling board as well…’

    I understand that Mr Joyce is gay and he may well not have been amused. But, IMO, it goes well beyond the feelings of gays in the team, among the fans, or among the sponsors. Seriously, what hetero player would want divisive players like Folau in their team?

    So who owns the game?

  23. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:49 pm

    Boerwar @ #782 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    ‘Alpha Zero says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:45 pm

    The wallabies are sponsored by QANTAS. Join the dots…

    Corporate sponsors can dictate the clauses in player contracts or threaten to or actually withdraw funding. You are representing the values of the controlling board as well…’

    I understand that Mr Joyce is gay and he may well not have been amused. But, IMO, it goes well beyond the feelings of gays in the team, among the fans, or among the sponsors. Seriously, what hetero player would want divisive players like Folau in their team?

    So who owns the game?’

    Not Mr Folau.

  24. Bluey reckons that if you want to put your anthropocentric theories to the test you can come visit him in his rock pool.

    Bluey’s read Sun Tsz?

  25. She is being referred to on social media as Assange’s attorney. Interesting developments if true.

    Jen Robinson@suigenerisjen
    6m6 minutes ago
    Just confirmed: #Assange has been arrested not just for breach of bail conditions but also in relation to a US extradition request. @wikileaks @khrafnsson

  26. The issue is can you deny people’s rights to express themselves because of a commercial contract.

    I don’t think he has been denied that right. He has been denied the right to speak for an organisation.

  27. ‘Andy Murray says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:50 pm

    Bluey reckons that if you want to put your anthropocentric theories to the test you can come visit him in his rock pool.

    Bluey’s read Sun Tsz?’

    Bluey reckons he wouldn’t touch Sun Tsz with a barge pole. But he has read Sun Tzu and is disappointed to report that Mr Tzu was totally ignorant about the strategic possibilities inherent in occie platforms.

  28. Plenty of athletes have been ordered to stay in the closet if they want contracts in the past, it probably still happens under the radar

  29. Boerwar @ 8:15 pm

    “…Some of you need to do an internship in Heaven….”

    I had an aunt who was a fundamentalist Christian and also an adherent to British Israel. That was close enough to doing such an internship.

  30. That is fascist behavior. Anyone on the left should abhor what he did. Not celebrate it.

    Not quite. Assange and Wikileaks need to be considered separately.

    The left (and everyone) should abhor what Assange became, his actions since holing up in the Ecuadorian embassy, and his continued influence and control over Wikileaks.

    The left (and everyone) should celebrate Wikileaks (or at least, the idea of Wikileaks), because governments and corporations shouldn’t be able to keep secrets and whistleblowers need a way to make their concerns public and loud.

    The failure of Assange doesn’t mean that transparency isn’t important or worthwhile.

  31. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:41 pm

    ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:39 pm

    I feel a bit guilty eating calamari but they cook it so good in Adelaide.’

    Do occies talk about eating and cooking humans? No.

    Bluey can’t even start a fire, so how could he cook us?

  32. Confessions

    My views on why the UK acted wrongly regarding Assange would apply if Assange was a GRU Colonel.

    The law is the law. Justice is justice. Its the unusual application by the executive of its power I object to.

    That’s actually part of not letting fascism win.

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