The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. poroti

    Bluey reckons that jellybacks don’t even have one arm. Let alone 8. Bluey notes the following two sentences from the article you linked and wonders how long the scientists were around for observing that something was immortal.

    ‘And finally the rubra is a turritopsis that can be found next to New Zealand waters. Its photos can be found all over the web describing the nutricula, but the rubra wasn’t even observed to be immortal.’

  2. Boerwar:

    [‘Fuck him off, I say.’]

    Entirely agree. I think Folau wants his contract terminated, probably switching back to RL, or maybe an overseas contract. In any event, he should keep his cherry-picking quotes from the Old Testament to himself.

  3. The leading world rugby referee is gay. How is he to feel refereeing a player who is homophobic?

    Rugby has some very deep religious associations. International players from other sides, especially Pacific Islands and South Africa, pray together after the game.

    Not known someone other than Folau to preach damnation on others, though.

  4. doyley @ #681 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

    He is a member of one of the same demented cults as Morrison is.
    He was contracted to STFU on certain topics.

  5. Confessions
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:02 pm
    BK:
    I suspect he was refusing to shower or attend to personal hygiene.
    ________________________________
    Usually the result of mental illness. Nothing to be happy about in another person, unless you’re an evil SOB.

  6. GG
    I am not an expert in the application of phrenology or body language or the like but it did rather seem to me that Mr Assange was not entirely happy about leaving the Embassy.

  7. guytaur,

    I understand all that.

    But who determines what particular position a sportsperson must take on a particular social issue before he or she is granted a contract ?

    Is is getting to the stage where a sportsperson must agree to support a particular viewpoint on a range of social issues before he or she is signed to a contract ?

    Should everyone be forced to sign a form supporting a particular range of views on “social” issues before a employer will consider them for a position ?

    I just find this particular case uncomfortable.

    That is about the best I can do to explain my disquiet on this.

    Cheers.

  8. So if, in an earlier age, a sportsman offended sponsors and fans by promoting the belief that men should be allowed to marry other men, it would then have been right to sack him?


  9. Pedant says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:03 pm

    I suspect rather a lot of people would prefer to go to hell than to have to share heaven with the likes of Mr Folau.

    That is the funny thing about heaven; first off to get there you have to accept an all mighty dictator; who’s behavior is pretty dam questionable at times (genocide is not considered nice). And when you get there you are promised a pretty dull and boring existence with some pretty dull and boring people.

  10. EGW,

    I understand all that.

    I have no wish to start a argument. I do not agree with his views but he is simply a sportsperson contracted to play a sport not to be a rocket scientist or a social progressive.

    Just my point of view and just trying, as best I can, to explain why I am uncomfortable with the decision.

    Best I can do.

    Cheers.

  11. ‘frednk
    And when you get there you are promised a pretty dull and boring existence with some pretty dull and boring people.’
    Homo sapiens projection.
    Some of you need to do an internship in Heaven.
    In Heaven, you are as one with God which would be a permanent state of exaltation. Was, is, will be are a unity.
    Theologically it is impossible for you to even be aware of the possibility of the state of boredom.

  12. AM

    No that’s why I refer to hate speech. One it was ok to have slaves and for sports people to use slurs based on race.

    Its a bit later with LGBTI rights but its the same journey.

    The whole you are going to hell is hate speech. There are even some evangelical church’s in the US that get this.

    Its speech that damages self esteem based on sexuality that is known to lead to suicide in some. We have decided the greater harm principle. Unlike Saudi Arabia as an example.

  13. ‘Ante Meridian says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:09 pm

    So if, in an earlier age, a sportsman offended sponsors and fans by promoting the belief that men should be allowed to marry other men, it would then have been right to sack him?’

    Sophists abound. We are not in an earlier age. We are in now.

  14. ‘Shellbell says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:17 pm

    If the US has an extradition application, it will probably need to play it now.

    UK justice is relatively swift.’

    Brexit delayed is Brexit denied.

  15. Julian Assange thought he could get away with Blue Murder and that his Russian connections would protect him. This has included a number of things that we have been made aware of along the way of the journey he has taken over the last dozen years or so. However, almost ridiculously, the straw that broke the camel’s back for Ecuador was his outrageous assertion that they were illicitly spying on him and Wikileaks.

    Mavis Smith @ #716 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    One thing that Assange will be happy about is that he can finally get to see a dentist.

    He looked terrible as they were bundling him out of the Ecuadorian Embassy. A lot older than his years.

  16. C@tmomma @ #726 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:18 pm

    Julian Assange thought he could get away with Blue Murder and that his Russian connections would protect him. This has included a number of things that we have been made aware of along the way of the journey he has taken over the last dozen years or so. However, almost ridiculously, the straw that broke the camel’s back for Ecuador was his outrageous assertion that they were illicitly spying on him and Wikileaks.

    Mavis Smith @ #716 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    One thing that Assange will be happy about is that he can finally get to see a dentist.

    He looked terrible as they were bundling him out of the Ecuadorian Embassy. A lot older than his years.

    They decided to show him the Ecua Door!

  17. Mavis,

    There is no way Folau could make a first grade Rugby League side these days.

    French union is last chance saloon for him now.

  18. OK Octopus story time….

    Once, in a different time, myself and my younger bother took an ice-cream container full of damp sand to primary school. The teacher asked us what was it it, so we upended it and dumped it on a bench, and there in the sand was a little blue-ringed octopus we had caught the day before…. The teacher freaked and ran off screaming taking children with her. My brother and almost pissed ourselves with laughter…although we never caught blue-rings again……

  19. doyley:

    A contract is a contract, and if Folau signed a contract which included a clause not to denigrate a certain section of society, he’s breached a contractual obligation. And do bear in mind, there’s a vast difference between free-speech and hurt-speech – Folau most assuredly falling foul of the latter.

  20. ‘frednk says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:18 pm

    Boerwar
    The ultimate subjugation to the dictator; loss of identity. I’ll take death.’

    Deny God and you will suffer eternal death noting that, in contradistinction to the predestinators, and in line with Mr Morrison’s theme du jour, it is your choice.

  21. Doyley,

    I dare say Folau had a stern talking to after his last outburst. He crossed the line this time.

    Union turned professionally ‘officially’ more than twenty years ago. The sponsors pay the bills, and the game is at deaths door in this country right now. They need all the money they can get.

    Professional sport is a cutthroat business, as Folau should know only too well.

  22. doyley @ #719 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    EGW,

    I understand all that.

    I have no wish to start a argument. I do not agree with his views but he is simply a sportsperson contracted to play a sport not to be a rocket scientist or a social progressive.

    Just my point of view and just trying, as best I can, to explain why I am uncomfortable with the decision.

    Best I can do.

    Cheers.

    Hi contract apparently included requirements not to indulge in the type of public comment he did.
    He broke his contract. End of story.

  23. Boerwar,

    So in future , when a sportsman is punished for expressing an opinion which you agree with, but which offends his sponsors, I will expect you to be the first to support the decision. Because we will be in the new ‘now’.

    Unless your rules only apply on 11/4/2019.

  24. Pica

    Bluey reckons fucking bloody magpies.

    It used to be quite the thing to denigrate, humiliate and subjugate Bluey’s extended family by catching them, detaining them without just cause, and then prodding them to see the rings light up.

    Fortunately, Mr Darwin stepped in and catching and torturing occies for sport went off the boil.

  25. Desert Qld,

    He could always go to Catalins rugby league club in the English super league.

    I remember a comment once, wtte, every time the Catalins club flys to a game it is like the movie Con Air.

    Cheers.

  26. Shorten has correctly said the law will be followed and environmental approvals will need to be signed off on

    That is the only position government can take

    Adani is undertaking a commercial enterprise

    It requires funding – noting the ALP has said they will provide no funding and that it is doubtful that Adani has the ability to self fund

    So financiers are required

    And, typically with such projects a consortium of financiers to spread risk

    So put yourself in the position of the financier, financing a set up so in the first instance until break even trading is established including assessing the business case risk

    The bankers look for their debt to be serviced – and repaid

    Given the product invested into by this project including the status and the environmental and public opinion considerations, any approval will be of interest, if achieved

    No doubt, with the pace of transition to renewable resources factored into the sheer population of India, therefore the market in a Nation where it could be put that Adani is too big to fail there is a cash flow selling point possibly supported by long term supply Contracts in India

    To me this project will succeed or fail on financing

    The current status of the enterprise would be of interest including the source/s of finance to reach the current status

    In other words if it is currently self funded what is the capacity to further self fund?

    This matter will progress as a Commercial enterprise with a Balance Sheet invested into a viable business model and the future projections

    Look at the history of Ok Tedi – including that one of the consortium lenders following the original proprietor “licking” the easily accessed gold reserves then exiting was the PNG Government

    At that stage the forward projections were based on other minerals including difficult to access – and the history of that project including subsequent litigation was what it was

    The Greens are showing how commercially inept they are in their simplistic opposition to this business case

  27. Shellbell @ #721 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    If the US has an extradition application, it will probably need to play it now.

    UK justice is relatively swift.

    Irony of ironies if he’s extradited by the Trump administration. He could’ve walked away from all this during the Obama years when the US wasn’t particularly interested in him.

  28. ‘Ante Meridian says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:25 pm

    Boerwar,

    So in future , when a sportsman is punished for expressing an opinion which you agree with, but which offends his sponsors, I will expect you to be the first to support the decision. Because we will be in the new ‘now’.

    Unless your rules only apply on 11/4/2019.’

    What’s with the ‘sportsman’ schtick? I don’t know why I bother wasting a single sentence on sophists such as yourself. The bastard was potentially damaging his his gay AND his hetero team mates and damaging the Code. In real time.

    If religiously bastardizing gays becomes all the socially-acceptable go some time in the future, and it well could because homophobia is nothing if not persistent, then no doubt he would be able to rejoin the game and get back to his personal sicko priorities.

  29. Mavis,

    As a NQ fan, we have had enough of troublemaking fullbacks for one season.

    The game has long passed Folau. Damn shame, the bloke could have been one of the greats. But was a glory hound instead and pissed it all away.

  30. ‘frednk says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:28 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Deny God and you will suffer eternal death

    I assume it is the same deal; a loss of identity; who cares.’

    Don’t think that you are going to escape your immortal fate by pretending that you don’t care. HE KNOWS and HE CARES.

    Matthew 10:29

    “Are not two sparrows sold for a farthing? and one of them shall not fall on the ground without your Father.”

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