The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. Great cartoon Sprocket, loved the skewered heads, but I wasn’t sure of the identity of a couple of characters on the wall, do you have any names for me? TIA.

  2. BB

    They are going to be there physically anyway. Its called travelling. If you think the Anning types would ignore their presence you have not been paying attention.

    So unless they are going to the Marches they are not politicians wrapping themselves in the flag to look good

  3. Guytaur: Better no Abbott in parliament than inside it.

    I’m not so sure of that – Tony should be kept there to remind the public of the years 2013-19.

  4. Firefox has yet to understand that by attacking Labor, the Gs drive Labor away. They appear to think the reverse will happen. They are totally mistaken.

    From Labor’s point of view, the Firefoxes of the political world are Libkin. They are the enemy, just as much as are the LibLibs.

    Furthermore, from Labor’s standpoint, G issues are a political no-mans land. Labor will stay out of it as far as possible. In that territory, only woe awaits Labor. The Gs know it, which is why they are always trying to lure Labor onto it.

  5. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:19 pm

    I thought octopii only lived for 12 months?

    Is Bluey, perhaps, a ring in?

    (Pun intended)’

    Bluey has four baseball bats ready for that cheap Trump imitation, Morrison, but intends to be absolutely fair and balanced in the way he approaches the daily score during the campaign.

    Some ageist (and ageing) biped supremacists are now asking questions about Bluey’s longevity. Here is the thing. Bluey does not drink alcohol, eat sugar, smoke ciggies or dope, drop acid or any of that nonsense. Plus Bluey vaccinates for every last thing. Bluey aims to be around for the swearing in of the next Labor prime minister and will probably cash in his chips shortly thereafter.

    Some other bipeds have set up a beige blancmange rival Bluey quadruped. Don’t these fuckers realize that Global Warming is going to cook the cattle industry, that Blue Heelers have very thick skulls and are not nice puppies. They generally get ABI from being kicked in the head all the time and tend to become psychotic as they age.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77ROZjW7qQ8

  6. Adani won’t be stopped by the greens. Adani and all other mines digging low quality coal will be sopped by the lack of demand and the removal of Government subsidies.

  7. I have just for some reason put my self through the pointless and painful process of watching Morrison’s press conference after his trip to bow down to the monarch and beg for an election.
    He made much of the fact that what he describes as his government has projected a surplus. ( I thought the people owned the government.)
    Considering that the Liberals like to pretend that the national budget is just a big version of a household budget it occurred to me that it would be of interest to ask the voters how many of them were expecting a surplus in their household budget in the next 12 months. Maybe one of the polling organisations may like to include that question in their next survey. Then reality bite me on the arse and I remembered that that question may not assist the ruling class and so would never gain the consent from ruling class lackeys who call themselves editors.

  8. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:28 pm

    Three years in his grotto has seen Bluey lose none of his political astuteness.
    It’s great to see him back.’

    Ahem. Bluey is not perfect. He tried to follow your astute financial approach to a sausage sizzle for a Rescue the Reef Collective Event but couldn’t get the BBQ started under water.

  9. jenauthor@6:54pm
    The people who are agitating about ADANI want LNP to win and ADANI coal mine to be reality so that they can keep asking for votes in its name. Let us assume this scenario. ALP wins next election and ADANI coal mine becomes a reality. The coal will be exported to India. If ADANI coal mine is not a reality India will still buy that quantity of coal from somewhere else. If Australia tells India that we will not sell the coal and they should not buy it from anywhere else, what do you think India will do? They will laugh at Australia. So this self righteous Adani campaign is just that and will not make any difference.

  10. Sohar

    I have wanted Abbott out of parliament for a long time. This solidified when he went to that convoy protesting against climate with the witch signs.

    Now I have a chance to be part of making it happen. I am not missing it 🙂

  11. ‘Burgey says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:33 pm

    How good is Dennis Atkins (and Malcolm Farr for that matter) in the role of the slightly grumpy old cynic? Does it well.’

    Yeah? He is so engaged that they had to wake him during the Drum to answer some inane question or other. The reality is that the dark arts of direct comms with the punters at individual level have enabled the pollies to bypass the commentariat and that the latter are a dying breed.
    Successful proponents to date include Trump and Rudd.
    Morrison seems to be rattling Labor’s can in this space.

  12. Burgey says:

    How good is Dennis Atkins (and Malcolm Farr for that matter) in the role of the slightly grumpy old cynic? Does it well.

    The Insiders should install them above the panel like the two old guys in the Muppets.

  13. V&J
    India appears to be waking from its Global Warming torpor. The proximate cause is a series of cocked-up monsoons. India has a quarter of a billion citizens who do not have access to electricity. At all. Whatever corruption drives investment in new coal, there is no doubt at all that new solar plus batteries at village level is the fastest, bestest and cheaper way of deliver village-level new electricity.
    India is spending over $20 billion on renewables.

  14. Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange arrested after seven years in Ecuador’s embassy in London, UK police say
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47891737

    Julian Assange, 47, (03.07.71) has today, Thursday 11 April, been arrested by officers from the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) at the Embassy of Ecuador, Hans Crescent, SW1 on a warrant issued by Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 29 June 2012, for failing to surrender to the court.

    He has been taken into custody at a central London police station where he will remain, before being presented before Westminster Magistrates’ Court as soon as is possible.

    The MPS had a duty to execute the warrant, on behalf of Westminster Magistrates’ Court, and was invited into the embassy by the Ambassador, following the Ecuadorian government’s withdrawal of asylum.

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/arrest-update-sw1-365526

  15. Leigh Sales says that Labor and the coalition have a patchy record of achievement in govt. That is true for the coalition, but she can’t possibly say that about Labor!

  16. frednk says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:33 pm
    Adani won’t be stopped by the greens. Adani and all other mines digging low quality coal will be sopped by the lack of demand and the removal of Government subsidies.
    ———————————–
    You have expressed a truth that those in the know in the Qld government have known for a long time. The thermal coal that Adani claims it wants to mine is far inferior to the the thermal coal available in the Hunter Valley. It is also far more expensive to extract and transport to the shipping port. The Adani mine was proposed when thermal coal prices were at their peak. At current prices it is very marginal. That is one reason why no banks were willing to finance it. It is also the reason why the Qld government keeps saying that Adani must prove itself to be financially viable before it will get final approval.

  17. The average life span of an octopus is about 1-2 years. Bluey would not have survived since the 2016 election, unless he’s a giant Pacific octopus.

  18. frednk says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:33 pm
    Adani won’t be stopped by the greens. Adani and all other mines digging low quality coal will be sopped by the lack of demand and the removal of Government subsidies.
    ———————————–
    You have expressed a truth that those in the know in the Qld government have known for a long time. The thermal coal that Adani claims it wants to mine is far inferior to the the thermal coal available in the Hunter Valley. It is also far more expensive to extract and transport to the shipping port. The Adani mine was proposed when thermal coal prices were at their peak. At current prices it is very marginal. That is one reason why no banks were willing to finance it. It is also the reason why the Qld government keeps saying that Adani must prove itself to be financially viable before it will get final approval.

  19. THE question

    IF the economy is so strong why does the Cash Rate maintain at 1.5% – and predicted to fall further from already the lowest setting ever?

    And 11 years on from the GFC

    And why is the Government 10 Year Bond Rate Yield at under 2%, again the lowest setting ever?

    Just for starters

  20. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:35 pm

    ‘BK says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:28 pm

    Three years in his grotto has seen Bluey lose none of his political astuteness.
    It’s great to see him back.’

    Ahem. Bluey is not perfect. He tried to follow your astute financial approach to a sausage sizzle for a Rescue the Reef Collective Event but couldn’t get the BBQ started under water.

    Get him to try Greek fire.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_fire

  21. Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.

  22. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    The average life span of an octopus is about 1-2 years. Bluey would not have survived since the 2016 election, unless he’s a giant Pacific octopus.’

    Classic misdirection. Bluey invites you to his rock pool in the northern Great Barrier Reef. It is white except where algae has colonized the substrate left vacant by dying corals. But Bluey digresses.
    He reckons come over for a cup of tea and a flash of the old blue rings. Bluey is happy to demonstrate that he is still alive in the more direct and effective way known to the Hapalochlaena.

  23. d
    Yeah? Suppose you are on his team and you are gay and you know that the creep wants you to burn for eternity?
    Fuck him off, I say. Bringing the game into disrepute, disrespecting your team mates, being a trog. Whatever.

  24. Ven
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:35 pm
    jenauthor@6:54pm
    The people who are agitating about ADANI want LNP to win and ADANI coal mine to be reality so that they can keep asking for votes in its name. Let us assume this scenario. ALP wins next election and ADANI coal mine becomes a reality. The coal will be exported to India. If ADANI coal mine is not a reality India will still buy that quantity of coal from somewhere else.
    ____________________________________________
    Well we might as well just let Adani through, then open up the whole Galilee basin, destroy all the groundwater for hundreds of miles and pollute the Great Barrier Reef even more. go for it.

  25. doyley

    It comes down to what amounts to hate speech. Same as using racist comments.

    The only problem is that some think religious freedom enables hate speech.

    This because the latter has had centuries of tradition and argument behind it. We know this speech causes harm and leads to people committing suicide.

    That’s the principle that should shift the balance and why it feels uncomfortable because politicians are still making exemptions for religion to allow discrimination

  26. And why is it that to receive a payment from government (not a refund of what you have remitted to government) you go to Wilson Asset Management and not Centrelink?

  27. Lenín MorenoVerified account@Lenin
    In a sovereign decision Ecuador withdrew the asylum status to Julian Assange after his repeated violations to international conventions and daily-life protocols. #EcuadorSoberano

    What are daily life protocols?

  28. ‘I find Morrison worse than Abbott’

    Agree. said to someone the other day if they were the only two choices and I had to choose….I’d choose Monkey.

  29. doyley says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.
    —————-
    Like all professional sports people Folua is employed as an entertainer. That gives him a public prominence that he would not otherwise have. He is free to believe anything he wants. What he cannot do is use the public profile his employment gives him to promote a belief that offends the fans and sponsors his employer depends on. If he wants to promote those beliefs he is free to resign and do it as a private person.

  30. doyley says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    Re Israel Folau.

    I do not agree with his position but I am very uncomfortable with a national sporting organisation terminating the contract of a player on the basis of his or her personal views.

    Very uncomfortable.
    —————-
    Like all professional sports people Folua is employed as an entertainer. That gives him a public prominence that he would not otherwise have. He is free to believe anything he wants. What he cannot do is use the public profile his employment gives him to promote a belief that offends the fans and sponsors his employer depends on. If he wants to promote those beliefs he is free to resign and do it as a private person.

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