The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. Firefox,
    As I think it was explained to you yesterday, focusing on Adani is a boutique concern of The Greens primarily. A party of government, such as Labor is and The Greens will never be, has to take a host of considerations into account and bald statements in black and white, such as The Greens make and want Labor to make, serve no useful purpose.

    Labor will be prudent and considerate of the issues that animate The Greens if they get to form the next government of Australia and The Greens should return the favour.

  2. Our resident pious priest, Nicholas says:

    The key message from this story is that the Sydney Theatre Company didn’t have adequate processes for dealing with claims of sexual harassment.

    Wrong, Father Nick.

    The key message is that the judge found nothing fucking happened.

  3. Firefox @6:33PM.
    “The thing is that we Greens know that the Coalition are a lost cause. Trying to get them to change their minds on something like Adani is just pointless. They won’t. But if we keep the pressure up Labor may have no alternative other than to listen to us.”

    Your logic seems to be that the Greens and Labor are fighting over a fixed pool of non-right wing voters, but nothing could be further from the truth. You’ve got to appreciate that Labor needs the votes of people who care more about their electricity bill than Adani, who care more about their mortgage than the Darling river. And for those living from one pay packet to the next with kids to feed I’m certainly not going to blame them. Meanwhile, the Greens can afford to go after a non-materialist (or post-materialist) demographic.

    But the “Liberals” and their Country cousins are the enemies of both. The pool of Right and non-right votes is not fixed. Look at any number of examples, Mundine and Latham to start with, who travelled in the opposite direction. Look at the swings in 1983 and 2007, “Liberals” crossing over to the side of light.

    The Greens should be going after the “Liberals”. Those who vote for them aren’t all right wing nutjobs, some care about the climate, some care about the environment and other issues dear to the Greens, but the policies and actions of the party that they have been voting for is utterly inimical to them.

    Go after Liberals. Hell, go after the Nationals. Surely there are farmers and other regional dwellers who can see that their interests are not those of the miners, the frackers, big agribusiness or Colesworths.

  4. EGW @ #598 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #566 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    EGW @ #563 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    Quoll @ #514 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:34 pm

    Re Stop Adani Convoy

    The obvious and puerile attack of will they be using fossil fuels was no doubt in the organisers mind before anyone else

    Heard that some EV groups had already jumped at an opportunity to be involved and promote EVs and support the cause months ago. Expected to lead the convoy at times.

    Given the ridiculous but perhaps now fortuitous but ridiculous humbug from the LNP over EVs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more interest from EV groups, convoy organisers and members of EV groups, in making a point or two. Obviously there are few EVs currently in Australia, a point that could be reinforced.

    Hey Quoll, did you ever get around to answering the question I asked a couple of days ago?

    “How many coal mines have the Greens managed to close?”

    Will Labor ban the export of thermal coal ?

    If not, why not ?

    Don’t respond to a question with two more questions.

    It’s all he’s got. He doesn’t do deep thoughtful debate.

  5. ‘Outside left says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 6:48 pm

    A protest on Anzac Day, no matter how well intentioned, is a baaaaad look. And the tories will play it to the hilt. You fools!’

    Real environmentalists will understand your point. For the doctrinaire red wreckers this will bring forward the Revolution.
    For the latter the really lovely bit is that they get to inflict some damage on Labor as well.
    Win Win.
    The Greens’ march to political oblivion gathers speed.

  6. As Israel Folau is now getting sacked by the Rugby Union, does anyone else reckon he should give the A-league a crack after leaving Rugby League, AFL and Rugby Union?

  7. Chika routinely absolutely dominates chat time on the Drum. She sets the agenda. She invariably gets the last word in. And she is absolutely 100% party partisan.
    The Drum used to be wonderful.
    It is becoming fucking hopeless.

  8. Bushfire Bill @ #602 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:48 pm

    Our resident pious priest, Nicholas says:

    The key message from this story is that the Sydney Theatre Company didn’t have adequate processes for dealing with claims of sexual harassment.

    Wrong, Father Nick.

    The key message is that the judge found nothing fucking happened.

    I think, from the short report I heard on the ABC, that the judge characterised the woman who made the complaint as a bit of a fabulist.

  9. I don’t want the Adani mine BUT I read recently that the Adani people want Labor to reject it so it can sue the pants of the govt. The only way Labor can reject without being legally liable is if Adani does not pass it environmentals – this is what Labor will likely focus on when it gets into govt.

    BUT THEY CANNOT MAKE ANY ANNOUNCEMENTS OR MOVES BEFORE THE ELECTION.

    And if Labor lose because ‘others’ push voters back too the Coalition then all hope is lost.

  10. Firefox @ #536 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:59 pm

    “Trust the Greens to edit a statement so dishonestly. Below is the full unedited statement. You Greens are so dishonest. You don’t want Australians to have jobs do you.”

    Ahh the good old preemptive strike! I’ve had Shorten’s website open in a tab waiting for someone to ask where the quote came from. Thanks for doing it for me. Shorten said he supports Adani and he hopes it stacks up. Why am I being dishonest? He said he supports Adani. The Greens on the other hand totally oppose it. Adani threatens tens of thousands of jobs along the Qld coast. If you really care about jobs then you will oppose Adani too.

    So by your argument you are implying that Adani does stack up environmentally. This is due to the fact that Shorten’s statement was clearly conditional upon environmental safeguards being met and you implying that Adani will go ahead under Shorten. Why do you think that Adani stacks up environmentally? Serious question.

  11. BSF
    I am not sure Folau giving another Code a crack is a useful formulation.
    The real question is whether there is a Code in the land stupid enough and ethically challenged enough to give him a crack.

  12. C@tmomma @ #602 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:47 pm

    Firefox,
    As I think it was explained to you yesterday, focusing on Adani is a boutique concern of The Greens primarily. A party of government, such as Labor is and The Greens will never be, has to take a host of considerations into account and bald statements in black and white, such as The Greens make and want Labor to make, serve no useful purpose.

    Labor will be prudent and considerate of the issues that animate The Greens if they get to form the next government of Australia and The Greens should return the favour.

    There it is – the great failing of the donor corrupted major parties.

    Coal mining/burning/pollution IS NOT a ’boutique concern’.

    The corrupted major parties just won’t conform… not even for their grandkids future.

  13. Firefox @ #565 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    “I remember the Batman by-election where the Greens were totally obsessed with Adani and they came a cropper. Seems like they haven’t learnt a thing are buttering up for another smashing as they strive desperately to show their total irrelevance to the needs of mainstream Australians.”

    Batman was derailed by the well documented issues in the Derebin branch. They totally stuffed that campaign up. No question about that. It had nothing to do with Adani and everything to do with a shocker of a campaign. That’s my brutally honest assessment of that.

    If you want to see what effect Adani really has then I would point you to the Qld seat of Maiwar, which the Greens won at the last Qld election on a massive anti-Adani campaign, among other issues.

    Bullshit!

    Batman was derailed because the greens said Adani to every question.

    What do you think about COL issues.? Greens answer Adani
    What about education? Greens answer Adani.
    My child needs to see a specialist Doctor? Greens answer Adani………………….

    Greens fucked themselves over so bad. And the joy is they are doubling down and going to do it to themselves even better this time!

  14. j
    There are two sets of Greens voters. The first set is the set that have been parked, used and abused by the second set. The second set is the doctrinaire Reds of various persuasions.
    The first set are gradually waking up, walking out or being pushed out. The second set see Labor as THE enemy.
    The second set know that their best bet is always to have reactionary governments, the worse the better.
    Which is why the Greens spend far more time trying to gut Labor than trying to gut the Liberals.

  15. OL

    I am not in the convoy.

    Bob Brown protested against President Bush in Parliament. It’s his political tactics that are guiding the convoy not mine.

    My only comment was to point out what the argument for Labor should be.
    Also to point out that the convoy could not magically disappear for the day.

  16. B. S. Fairman @ #608 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:52 pm

    As Israel Folau is now getting sacked by the Rugby Union, does anyone else reckon he should give the A-league a crack after leaving Rugby League, AFL and Rugby Union?

    I reckon that Folau has a huge damages claim which will make him very rich and shake the pseudo law that makes professional sporting bodies the arbitrators of sport peoples’ public behaviour.

  17. The key message is that the judge found nothing fucking happened.

    Can the key message be that if you want to allege sexual assault the police should be your first port of call?

  18. Labor gets the fundamentals about the economy.
    60% of the economy is the consumer economy.
    The Coalition just spent five years gutting consumers’s income.
    So the economy is sagging.
    Labor’s policies will provide both an immediate boost and a structural lift to the economy.

  19. Annabel Crabb

    Verified account

    @annabelcrabb
    7h7 hours ago
    More
    Bill Shorten kicking off his campaign in the seat of Deakin is the campaign equivalent of walking into Scott Morrison’s house and grabbing a beer from the fridge.

  20. I’m not a fan of Adani going ahead, or any coal mining, new or old.

    However.

    The crucial thing is to manage the transition away from burning coal. That will only happen as the world gets its act together and each country signs up to genuine mechanisms to phase out fossil fuel use.

    That will naturally lead to phasing out large sections of the fossil fuel extraction industries. Playing around on the supply side will not have any substantive effect.

    As totemic as Adani is, it really isn’t the main game. The main game has to be setting up mechanisms in the Australian economy to do our part to reduce our emissions.

    And worse, the more you focus on a single thing – Adani – the more you build pressure and attention on that one thing, the more you diffuse the political will to tackle the things that actually matter – driving change in our economy. If/when Adani is stopped/falls through, there will be a large section of the less-committed public that says “phew, problem solved, now what are the Greens/greens moaning about? Didn’t they get their way?”

  21. Andy Murray @ #264 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 12:28 pm

    I guess you don’t realize that Australia is the worlds biggest exporter of coal by a large margin – nearly 40% of all coal burned worldwide comes from Australia **. And this will very likely increase further should Adani go ahead.

    Not right, not even close. Australia might produce 40% of all seaborn coal, but most coal is mined and burnt locally.

    That 40% figure is for coal exports. Most of which goes to India and China. They don’t burn their own because they can burn ours more cheaply 🙁

  22. When a Labor politician is being interviewed it’s fair enough for a journalist to go hard on an issue. No matter how much some in Labor don’t like it.

    I am not in Labor.
    It is false to equate one side who are environmental and climate vandals and the other side who arent guaranteeing they will come in at the 11th hour to stop a mine getting final approval. But that is what Karvelas is doing. And that is also what some on here are doing.

    You look at the history of policies and the current policies on the environment and climate change and it is a no brainer. If you want real action on protecting the environment and dealing with climate change you should vote for and support the ALP at this election.

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #626 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:02 pm

    C@tmomma @ #622 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    God are we going to be subjected to this Green garbage every day!?!

    Yep!

    There’s just no justification or logic in digging up and exporting thermal coal to other countries for them to pollute the environment and destroy the next generations.

    The conversation will only grow, until the corrupted major parties get with the program.

  24. So, the bottom of the garden has emptied and out floods commentary devoid of any practical element.

    Just highlights why the Greens politically are on the fringes.

  25. C@tmomma wrote:

    I think, from the short report I heard on the ABC, that the judge characterised the woman who made the complaint as a bit of a fabulist.

    Not implying that C@tmomma would agree with the following phrasing…

    but when Eryn alleged a grand conspiracy of evil, encompassing actors, directors, audience and admin staff, against Helpless Young Gels forced to become virtual sex slaves to dirty old men actors – almost no part of their delicate, alabaster bodies immune to greasy groping (albeit, air groping) – it started to become obvious that the shark had been well-and-truly jumped.

    Amazingly, part of this grand conspiracy was Eryn herself, as well, as she gave the same newspaper a glowing report of the behaviour she later condemned, diametrically. Her explanation was that, for a brief moment, she had succumbed to the zeitgeist herself, before coming to her senses a year later in defence of the (then, but no longer) world’s largest and most powerful producer of Hollywood-style movies.

  26. Bluey Score Day 1

    Bluey reckons that there are five big issues:

    A competent, united team led by an excellent manager versus a shambles led by a monster raving looney.
    The growing wealth gap/cost of living pressures/real wages fall.
    Growing Global Warming Impacts.
    Treating women with respect.
    Public health, education, transport v private wealth.

    Bluey has observed the following general approaches:

    The Coalition will lie its FUDDING arse off. Think Grand Theft Ute.
    The Greens will continue a thirty year tradition: announce, urge, demand, grandstand, threaten blackmail, posture, snipe and neg.
    Labor will propound real policies that will make real differences to ordinary Australians.

    Bluey reckons that good positive policy is good politics.

    As expected all three acted true to form today. Bluey recalls that during previous debates that featured the worm, the worm ALWAYS went down when vile attack politics was being used and tended to go up when the speaker was being positive and optimistic.

    On this basis Bluey scored the first day Labor 1 Coalition 0 Greens 0.

  27. I have just joined the team to call voters for GetUp to convince voters in Warringah not to vote for Tony Abbott.

    That’s going to be my contribution to the campaign

  28. Boerwar:

    Very pleased to see Bluey back!

    FWIW sentiment from people at work today was stark relief that the election has finally been called and people are looking forward to seeing the back of this govt, and preferably Scott Morrison.

  29. OL

    I would agree with you if they were protesting at the actual marches. If the day was that sacred we would not play sport either.

    The point is don’t use ANZAC Day to promote a political cause with false patriotism. I don’t think the convoy people are doing that.

  30. Labor should win this election easily, the Coalition have been a divided, rabid mess and should be punished for this with a large number of seats lost.

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