It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.
Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.
Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.
In politics, as it is in sport, it is not the despair that gets you, it’s the hope.
SK
When a Labor politician is being interviewed it’s fair enough for a journalist to go hard on an issue. No matter how much some in Labor don’t like it.
Adani is an issue that has become short hand for being out of touch with how coal is connected to carbon issues.
It would be just as fair to pursue the Greens on their UBI proposal.
It’s up to the party to clarify their position not that of journalists.
I like Karvelas precisely because she treats all comers the same. It would be nice if other journalists did the same.
“All Fed Labor need to say is we are not putting any money into the mine. End of story.”…
They have already said that….
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/11/hyundai-warns-of-fear-mongering-over-electric-cars-in-australia-election
poroti@3:05pn
“we will be chipping in the dirty digger’s bill”
We already chipped in our share. Remember the $25 million given to Murdoch press (err Fox) by LNP government when MT was PM.
Is it fair to say Adani is just one mine if by building it the rest of the mines in the basin get built?
Please Labor if as I expect you do win. Put in Canada style truth in media laws. Make this the last almost purely propaganda Murdoch election.
WOW@5:11pm
NSW ALP (aka Michael Daley) gave that hope to LNP. Once LNP won NSW state election, LNP appears to have pulled wool over the eyes of OZ people.
“Will he be travelling by fossil fuel-powered vehicle?”
Honestly, I have no idea. Maybe, maybe not. Even if he is, if this convoy helps to stop Adani then it will be well worth it.
This is the Twitter thread Late Riser was talking about. It’s content is explosive!
Ronni Salt
Replying to
@MsVeruca
So we’re back on the farm this month & here’s another great yarn we found.
It’s about the unbelievable luck of one of the Liberal Party’s rising stars, his mysterious business connections in the Cayman Islands & the water we all paid for but never got.
Let’s call him Mr X.
But first let’s go back to 2007 & Howard’s announcement he’d spend $10 billion to buy back water/environmental flows for the #MurrayDarling basin
Now $10 billion is a lot of money, so when some large corporate farm types heard about this, naturally they rubbed their hands.
None more so than the Liberal’s rising star Mr X, who back then was just another mild-mannered white guy from a wealthy farm family.
Back in 2007 he had his fingers in a hell of a lot of pies.
He still does.
Before that though, Mr X worked with consulting firm McKinsey & Co doing multi-million $ projects with another man called Tony Reid.
In fact, our rising star Mr X & Tony Reid were such great mates they started their own company together in 1998.
(Remember this detail)
In 2007/8, our rising star Mr X knew a good business opportunity when he saw it.
He knew farming water & its buybacks were going to be very lucrative.
So when he saw 2 huge farms for sale in southern QLD with millions of $$ of water rights on them, Mr X looked into them.
They even sought input from a senator friend who was based in the region and who knew all about water rights and irrigation because his campaign had largely been financed by them – Barnaby Joyce.
So in late 2007, Mr X & his mates set up a company – we’ll call it Company E.
Company E bought those 2 huge irrigation farms – “Clyde” for $27 million, “Kia Ora” for $61 million.
That’s quite a splurge. You’d want your money back, right?
The problem for poor old Mr X & his Company E was, the farms weren’t as profitable as they thought.
But by now the govt had changed to Labor who decided to do small, strategic buybacks of water for the environment.
Our rising star Mr X offered his spare millions of litres of water to the Labor govt, but the govt said no.
So – they put the 2 farms back on the market.
But there were no takers and by 2010/11, both our massive cotton farms Kia Ora & Clyde were losing about $5-10 million a year.
Despite that, our rising star Mr X was still interested in water & money because he set up another company to buy the big one – Cubbie Station.
We might have forgotten to mention Mr X is very big on setting up companies.
Especially in the Cayman Islands.
Although his position today is a respectable politician who likes to rail against tax avoiders- Mr X is strangely fond of the Caymans for himself & his friends.
But by 2012 Mr X’s mind was on other things and he’d decided that politics was his game.
He began to donate a lot of money to the Liberal Party.
By a strange coincidence, there was also another donation to his campaign for the NSW Libs that year.
It came from a business in the QLD National Party seat of Maranoa.
Strange you say?
Yes because the $55,000 (1 x $20K + 1 x $35K) donation came from Company E, which in 2011 had welcomed a new Director – our old mate Tony Reid.
Lucky Mr X hey?
So Mr X gets himself elected to the House of Reps & as luck would have it, so does Mr X’s friend Barnaby Joyce.
Barnaby’s a rising star too.
In the meantime, Company E’s still struggling with Clyde & Kia Ora & they’ve again offered their massive water holdings for buybacks.
But the Environment Minister Greg Hunt says no.
You could forgive Hunt for being a bit confused because the Liberals are about to be riven by leadership disputes.
Come 2015 & Abbott is rolled for Turnbull. As part of the spoils, Barnaby is Minister for . . .
Water.
Now Barnaby Joyce has always roared his opposition to water buy-backs.
He claims they ruin rural communities and make small families destitute.
Here’s Barnaby on the record in 2008 railing against a federal govt $24 million buyback.
No. Water. Buybacks.
And again in Senate Estimates in 2011 verballing Penny Wong about her evil ways of buying back water for the environment.
So we’ve established well & truly Barnaby hates & detests water buybacks for the environment
Barnaby does not believe in them
It’s a well known fact
Meanwhile, Company E’s 2 farms Clyde & Kia Ora are bleeding money
Their debts to their Caymans parent company are almost $80 million. Gobsmacking right?
And in an astonishing about-face, Barnaby the Water Minister suddenly discovers he likes water buybacks after all
Suddenly, it’s Barnaby of the Overflow.
Barnaby’s people – without any tender – inexplicably start to deal with people working on behalf of Company E.
You remember Tony Reid?
Tony is now working as an advisor to Company E for the sale of the multi-million dollar water.
Yes, while Mr X’s mate Tony is negotiating with the federal government, Mr X’s mate Tony is also still happily running a company with Mr X – who is now a Minister in the federal government.
How very fortunate.
That’s not the only stench
Shonky consultants give shonky advice (they all worked in the same office) & the govt’s own department ABARE states the water is virtually worthless – as it doesnt really exist
The “water” Company E is selling, is flood water
Ghost water
It’s water that only gets trapped on farms in a flood every 10 years or so.
But Barnaby thinks it’s the greatest deal ever.
Despite the water being non-existent & despite it only being valued at $1200-1500 a megalitre (I million litres), Barnaby pays $2750 a meg.
So just to recap:
Back to poor old Company E
They’d fallen to an after-tax loss of $13.19m in 2017, a fall from its loss of $7.14m in 2016
The company was saddled with net current liabilities that included convertible notes of $69.484m & a promissory note of $11m due to its parent company.
So – Company E’s debt was over $80 million.
But by 2017, the Water Minister’s purchase of water-that-didn’t-exist luckily came through.
And the final amount Barnaby Joyce paid for that fake water purchase from Company E?
$80 million.
How lucky was Company E?
Its Cayman’s directors must have been delighted because not only did they get money for water that didn’t exist, they also didn’t fully demolish the farm dams that trapped the flood water.
So they can still trap water again
All $80 million of it
And the best part is, Company E – could now pay out its parent company (No tax on the earnings. Such luck)
That parent company by the way is called Eastern Australia Irrigation Ltd.
It has a complex set up & share holders & naturally, it’s registered in the Cayman Islands.
Who started Eastern Australia Irrigation Ltd though?
How did this company get to be so fortunate with million $ water sales?
Its founder is touted as a future Prime Minister, dislikes wind farms, loves coal mines & it would appear – money from strange places.
The co-founder & original director of Eastern Australia Irrigation Ltd is the very same man who also coincidentally started Company E.
Twitter – meet Mr X.
This thread was a team effort. It was compiled from research conducted predominantly by
@jommy_tee
and myself (to a lesser extent) and an anonymous insider whistleblower.
It has been pointed out to us that some of the technical data on this thread was compiled by Maryanne Slattery of The Australia Institute. I was not aware of this report when we started, but as you will see on reading, there is some amazing work in it. >
(link: http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/P502%20That%27s%20not%20how%20you%20haggle.pdf) tai.org.au/sites/defualt/…
Phew!
This should be on the front page of every newspaper in the country tomorrow!
Cud Chewer @ #91 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:34 am
You don’t win an election by needlessly starting fights.
Late Riser: “Science (as we know it) is only 400 years old. We’re making progress.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Bacon#Science”
I would go back further.
For example Robert Grosseteste, Roger Bacon and others in the 12th and thirteenth centuries were using the scientific method, but were crippled by the lack of the differential calculus.
See:
https://www.nature.com/news/history-a-medieval-multiverse-1.14837
“De Luce is remarkably precise in its formulation of physics — had Grosseteste had access to the mathematics of calculus and the computing power we have today, it would have been natural to apply them.”
It would be interesting to know what might have happened had they had access to the differential calculus apparently invented by Archimedes…
And Grosseteste and others in Europe seem to have had the Scientific Method from reading the Optics of Alhazen (10th century Cairo)
Some history of optics:
http://www.angelfire.com/ga/astronomyclubaugusta/History/hist.htm
Newton of course pulled it all together, and was smart enough not only to see the lack of calculus, but to fill that void.
Re Stop Adani Convoy
The obvious and puerile attack of will they be using fossil fuels was no doubt in the organisers mind before anyone else
Heard that some EV groups had already jumped at an opportunity to be involved and promote EVs and support the cause months ago. Expected to lead the convoy at times.
Given the ridiculous but perhaps now fortuitous but ridiculous humbug from the LNP over EVs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more interest from EV groups, convoy organisers and members of EV groups, in making a point or two. Obviously there are few EVs currently in Australia, a point that could be reinforced.
It looks like the Sudanese might get the chance for a real democracy.
Maybe even have the country safe enough for people to return if they wish.
Crossing my fingers for them. 🙂
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/sudan-army-important-announcement-190411052132167.html
“They have already said that….”
Federal Labor has also said this…
pegasus @ #490 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 4:44 pm
It will be good to see a Government quizzed over Climate Change, because the Greens haven’t done it for the last six years.
NEWS FROM THE SEAT OF CAPRICORNIA…. LNP Michelle Landrys seat … Re Bob Browns convoy anti Adani Mine protest. I am rusted on Labor and anti Adani. It (the mine and the owners) are all too shonky for me. ( see bobbrown.org )
Back to the convoy and how to destroy any good will and shoot yourself in the foot. The Convoy is holding a meeting at my small Capricorn Coast hometown of Emu Park at 11am on the 25th of April … yes that is right Anzac Day. It is bloody stupid to say the least. Why not just have one day off on the convoy.
Our little town population of approx 3,500 gets 5,000 plus to our Dawn Service.
LPN Michelle Landry is already making a huge noise about the Anzac Day Protest. Ive seen calls already from irate servicemen from’down south’ and there is a storm of complaint heading the greens way.
This will be BIG up here
My beautiful little town and area is unbelieveably populated with racist redneck Fraser Anning Pauline Hanson types. They will make merry hell about this and it could have a big bearing towards the Labor Candidate Robertsons campaign.
I just can’t understand why the Greens would even consider it. A protest meeting on Anzac Day.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/11/day-happy-event/comment-page-9/#comment-3124494/ JSF
Stealth is a force multiplier, not an invisibility cloak.
Radar cross section/ detectability is one thing (over the former Yugoslavia one earlier stealth jet/ Nighthawk was downed using diverse radars then showing blackhole, for the noise detected), be it space/ air or ground/ sea.
IR or optical might have also played a part.
Jets also have IFF/ transponders with a range of settings from on to off. As such no radar painting required.
I suspect the NBN board is just one of a long list of boards that the ALP will want to ‘modify’ should they be elected in May.
ABC, CSIRO, MDB, – – – –
Here’s a pretty good backstory piece on Laura Tingle. Covers a lot of ground but does omit her marriage to Alan Ramsay.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/about/backstory/news-coverage/2019-04-11/laura-tingle-on-political-reporting-and-women-in-press-gallery/10987336
E. G. Theodore, I’ll look them up. Thanks. Testing hypotheses against measurement is how I think of the scientific method. Stuttering rediscovery of the scientific method seems reasonable. Perhaps it merely became widespread 400 years ago?
And calculus is a powerful tool to be sure. It may have been one of those ideas that turn up coincidentally in several minds and gets noticed when the world is ready. (Newton & Leibnitz, Wallace and Darwin)
Jeff
I don’t get it. The Diggers fought for the right to protest in WW2 as one of our fundamental freedoms.
I would think protesting was right up there with respecting the Diggers. Dissent is Patriotic.
That’s of course ignoring the Greens could not just teleport to the Adani Site.
Truth in media laws as in Canada- wouldn’t that be great.
More wishful thinking.
bool
Why? After the election Labor could do it. They have promised to restore trust in politics. Why should the media be exempt and only politicians be responsible
Firefox @ #514 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:33 pm
Trust the Greens to edit a statement so dishonestly. Below is the full unedited statement. You Greens are so dishonest. You don’t want Australians to have jobs do you.
“I support the Adani coal mine so long as it stacks up. I hope it stacks up, by the way. Let me be clear, I want to see more jobs in Australia, I want to see more jobs in regional Queensland. But it has got to stack up commercially, it’s got to stack up environmentally. “
https://www.billshorten.com.au/transcript_doorstop_yatala_wednesday_12_april_2017
@Jeffemu
That’s because Greens don’t give a damn who wins the election. For them, a Labor or Liberal government makes no difference. They are perfectly happy to be in crossbench yelling and commentating. Sooner you realise that sooner everything about how Greens act will start to make sense.
C@tmomma (Block)
Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:31 pm
Comment #510
Actually it was lizzie. I can’t take any credit. I only noted a possible link to water and Adani.
jeffemu,
Would this greens stupidity not offer labor a big opportunity ?
I would suggest the savvy approach by the labor candidate would be to rip into the greens over this very very hard.
Shorten has already committed to a day of no campaigning on Anzac Day so labor should go high profile anger.
Might help split the greens labor joined at the hip bullshit.
Just a thought.
Cheers.
Simon² Katich® @ #483 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 4:36 pm
Reducing our own emissions and exporting thermal coal are two different things.
We shouldn’t be exporting thermal coal to other countries for them to pollute the environment with our coal.
Let’s not confuse the two.
I remember the Batman by-election where the Greens were totally obsessed with Adani and they came a cropper. Seems like they haven’t learnt a thing are buttering up for another smashing as they strive desperately to show their total irrelevance to the needs of mainstream Australians.
Guytaur, I am only the messenger here. I have lived here for 32 years and I still have a lot of trouble working out how the LNPs and rednecks think. This is Matt Canavans home area. This is Barnaby – Hanson territory.
There are some things you just don’t interrupt or disturb. And I agree with Anzac Day too. You don’t open the pubs and clubs on Christmas Day and Good Friday.
It’s not too hard to say its Anzac Day we will have a break day.
The Murdoch rags up here will make merry hell with this.
Voting for the Greens won’t stop Adani.
Repeating the same-same mantra, however, might result in some undecideds sticking with the Liberals — because why change?
Make your aim getting rid of the Coalition.
“Trust the Greens to edit a statement so dishonestly. Below is the full unedited statement. You Greens are so dishonest. You don’t want Australians to have jobs do you.”
Ahh the good old preemptive strike! I’ve had Shorten’s website open in a tab waiting for someone to ask where the quote came from. Thanks for doing it for me. Shorten said he supports Adani and he hopes it stacks up. Why am I being dishonest? He said he supports Adani. The Greens on the other hand totally oppose it. Adani threatens tens of thousands of jobs along the Qld coast. If you really care about jobs then you will oppose Adani too.
I met one of my cancer survivor friends today. Although she was in the public system she was still out of pocket.
She was very pleased with Labor’s Cancer Busting Policy.
Jeff
Are the Greens protesting at the ANZAC Day Marches?
If not I just don’t see a conflict.
zoomster @ #532 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:58 pm
Our responsibility should be to stop digging up coal.
We owe it to future generations.
Boerwar @ #535 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:59 pm
That and the tax cuts for low income workers (a lot of women) are the sleeper issues of this campaign.
What an uninspiring rallying call by Scott Morrison.
“The choice is between a government that I lead and the alternative of a government led by Bill Shorten.”
No shit, Sherlock!
C@tmomma @ #538 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
Give him a break – he had just found out and was a bit shell-shocked.
“Voting for the Greens won’t stop Adani.”
Yeah it will. Votes are all Labor really care about. Taking votes away from them is the way to make them listen. And if the Greens are in the balance of power in either house then I’m sure we’ll come to some arrangement.
“Repeating the same-same mantra, however, might result in some undecideds sticking with the Liberals — because why change?
Make your aim getting rid of the Coalition.”
Nobody who opposes Adani is going to switch from Labor to the Liberals over it lol. How ridiculous. You’re just worried people will go the other way and vote Greens.
Voting for the Greens is the strongest possible way to vote against the Coalition and their agenda.
Rowe hits another target.
Labor selected a candidate for Sturt two or three months ago, the Libs two or three weeks.
Labor kept its candidate under wraps for yonks. Meanwhile the Libs have sprung into action, lobbing three pieces of junk mail in my letterbox in a week, including a postal vote application today.
Nothing from Labor.
Very disappointing. And stupid.
MARKET BREAKDOWN #AusVotes2019
Lol
SWORN IN GOVERNMENT:
Labor $1.17
Coalition (Liberal/National) $5
SEAT FAVOURITES (NATIONWIDE):
Labor – 93 seats
Coalition – 53 seats
Others- 5 seats
FULL MARKET: ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politic…
guytaur says:
Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 5:20 pm
Please Labor if as I expect you do win. Put in Canada style truth in media laws. Make this the last almost purely propaganda Murdoch election.
————————
This is a must , hope the greens, and independents do not do a repeat like before the 2013 federal election when Labor did try to bring in media reforms, independents like Tony Windsor , Oakshot , and the greens supported Murdoch , Abbott and the libs/nats to block it
booleanbach @ #539 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
I don’t think Scott Morrison realises that the comparison is as odious as it is. 😆
Gork and Doyley.
This won’t help the Labor Party. The Green vote as little as it is here will collapse. One Nation polls high here and in Yeppoon and Rockhampton. Too me it is a real worry that the One Nation vote might even be higher than the LNPs Landry and her vote will gift the seat to One Nation.
You have to understand the mentality of a lot of the locals. This ‘Anzac Day’ Protest will drive many people to One Nation or to the LNP.
Landry will be loving this gift horse lobbing in Capricornia.
C@tmomma @ #538 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
I think someone wants him to lose.
Greensborough Growler @ #530 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
Seems like Lib-Lab partisans haven’t learnt a thing from the science that says future generations will get a smashing from climate change effects.
For AFL afficionados Swans play Melbourne tonight. But, Buddy Franklin has never lost to the Dees after a federal election has been called.
Get On!
Greenies do boring Batman again.