The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
Charles, many on the conservative side deride the Labor team members’ styles as a matter of course without actually thinking about it. And since the Murdoch press is so pro conservative they carry that derision s integral to their reporting.
I admit to doing the same with the Libs – I don’t think any of them are good ‘performers’. Partly bias, but also partly because they have no talent and no policy to work with
David Pope
Charles
I’ve just watched Chris Bowen’s NPC budget in reply speech, and as usual was excellent. IMO he is an impressive performer. I honestly don’t understand the criticism.
——————————————
That’s because you lack Rex’s humungous intellect and ethical superiority.
My understanding is that there is no upgrade path from fibre to the node.
The bundle or bundles of fibre from the exchange don’t have the capacity.
If a node supports 100 premises there might only be 20 or so lines of Fibre. Presumably it was done that way so it is cheaper.
Late Riser says:
May-11 … April-08 (too late)
May-18 … April-15 (5 days to go)
May-25 … April-22 (12 days to go)
———–
Being a christian surely Morrison won’t be calling the election during these 4 days good Friday 19th , easter saturday 20th , easter sunday 21th , easter Monday 22th
Assuming you mean node to fibre….
Not quite. But it will cost about $10K (if the node is close) as it requires substantial upgrades at the node and exchange as you said. So unfortunately not just a simple trench and cable to the node as they saved not just on the trenching but on the nuts and bolts.
However, once this upgrade is done it is then cheaper for your neighbours to go from FTTN to FTTP. But still about $2-3K.
bc and others, about NBN upgrades.
FttN is NOT upgradable. To go from FttN to FttP means scrapping everything downstream of the exchange. Including scrapping the Nodes.
FttC, if properly implemented, can be upgraded to FttP.
The reason for this is to implement FttC or FttP means running many (often hundreds) of fibres from the exchange to optical splitters further downstream.
The way FttN has been implemented means there are only 12 fibres to each Node. There is no way to implement GPON (the optical standard) or its successors without there being more fibres at street level.
Let me go into a bit more detail here. A GPON network starts as a single fibre back at the exchange. Much closer to the home, there is a FDH (fibre distribution hub). A small cabinet with passive optical splitters (requires no power). Each fibre from the exchange is split into up to 32 paths (32 fibres) which then run off to homes.
In the original NBN, there were 3 fibres to each address. There’s a reason for this. One for the house. One for a potential duplex development. One for non-cadastre based services (like 5g).
A FttC network will see the optical split closer to the home. But each FttC splitter may only feed 3 to 4 houses. This means you need a lot more than 12 fibres once you get a couple of blocks further up the network (closer to the exchange). FttN CANNOT be upgraded to FttC because the Nodes only have 12 fibres and feed hundreds of houses each.
Also, all the money (billions) that were spent on Nodes themselves, plus the cost of the electricity to run them (a fully fibre network requires no intermediate power source) is money thrown away. To go from FttN to FttC or FttP means you throw away billions of dollars worth of hardware and civil works. You have to go back to the exchange and re-pull all the cables. You have to scrap the Nodes. In some cases you can reuse the concrete pad, but not always since the network will be different. You have to introduce the FDH boxes or FttC splitters.
So, just repeating. Turnbull has pissed billions of dollars up against the wall. There’s no upgrade path other than scrapping and starting again.
Simon this so-called technology choice is a scam. There isn’t enough fibre at the Node for everyone to request this. Just a lucky (and well heeled) few. Once you upgrade whole suburbs, virtually everything has to be scrapped and replaced.
As I said, this only works for a few people. Once the Node runs out of fibres, you’re screwed.
The term for what happened to the NBN is ‘a cluster Turnbull’.
It has been said that the cricket ball tampering incident is a mini Turnbull.
PVO saying election being called tomorrow morning
Charles @ #448 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 5:58 pm
Yep. Some more from Bowen –
John the cables that feed the nodes have 12 fibres. Its a standard size.
5G and other non-fibre/cable technologies will make NBN connections obsolete for most in the near future. ALP were idiots to try getting into the technology picking games just like KK’s husband was wrong. Should have left the market to it’s own devices except in areas of significant uncommerciality such as remote and rural – where they should have gone to market for tenders and not dictated technologies.
Found it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-11/people-inadvertently-paying-for-neighbours-faster-nbn/10104778
The next election will be held on 2rd November 2019 and the Abbott and Turnbull and Morrison government will be returned with a big majority and our great country will be still in save hands..
God help us if the ALP win that election as our borders will be opened up again and the budget will be back in the red in no time.
I just noticed William’s quoting of “Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell”. Dobell is my home seat. It is almost completely made up of the State electorates of The Entrance and Wyong. In the State election the Libs sustained swings against them of 5.7% and 3.7% in these two electorates, which if they had been replicated elsewhere would obviously have produced an easy win for Labor in that election. I have no idea where Mr Clennell is getting his numbers from, but I am sure we can tell him he is dreaming. Emma McBride achieved a margin of 9.6% last election. A swing against her of over 4.8%, after the state results, seems about as likely as Scotty walking on water before breakfast.
Cud
Your explanation explains why a colleague on FTTN who is within eyesight of the node box, paid the $660 no refundable for a quote for Technology Choice from NBN – and was quoted over $16k for the job. A rip-off indeed.
Buce, you are simply wrong about this. They also said this about 4g and 2g. You should talk to some actual telecoms experts rather than reading the shit fed to you in the Australian.
That article came out around the time I was speaking to NBN and our neighbours about upgrading. As we are close to the exchange and most of our cable from the node new or in good condition it wasnt worth it.
@Bucephalus
5G will do nothing, same limitations..
Take it from the experts, not bullshit artists.
The Coalition Policy of Couples Counciling being discussed on The Drum atm. Expert currently saying that domestic violence is usually not to be dealt with by counciling ,”putting the family pet in with the Pit Bull” or wtte.
I thought this was a policy they included for Kevin Andrew’s post political career!
dave, I enjoyed that quote by Bowen. Thanks for posting.
OMG. WTF? Having been a silent witness to ‘Relationship Counselling’, it is up there with homeopathy for remedying serious issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_PGUOKom2A
Do you hear tomatoes scream!
Cud, I don’t recall that ever being said about 4G or 2G. But 5G technology definitely appears to be very viable for an average user who doesn’t want a home phone/landline. And with the way costs in that area are falling, penetration of the wireless providers and roll out of new satellite services, the NBN services aren’t going to be cost competitive for most households. Big users who need the top end speed and reliability will stick with their fibre connections. Telstra will be smashing out 5G in order to make up for the impact of NBN.
Maybe I’m wrong. But this is my experience – I built a house 14 years ago – fully smart wired with Cat 5 Cable into all rooms. Never used the internal cabling as Wireless Modems came in.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #448 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
Dis-owning the carbon price – typical Labor right cowardice.
TPOF “That’s because you lack Rex’s humungous intellect and ethical superiority.”
Neither I nor anyone here could possibly aspire to such lofty heights.
Union thuggery!
https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-enacts-new-solar-rules-as-stunned-industry-warns-of-investment-standstill-35346/
This article bemoans the slow EU take up due to slow bureaucracy but appears to disgree with the naysayers on 5G:
https://www.politico.eu/article/mobile-world-congress-mwc-5g-europe-china-us-telecommunications-network/
A nice story.
Public transport operators in Melbourne are often used as kicking boards by Melbournian in fact it is a sport to criticise, yell, abuse, complain about trains, tram and bus services.
My son has Aspergers and is on the severe spectrum scale. He loves trains as I do.
My son has Tigger a Winnie the Pooh character stuffed toy as his companion.
My wonderful partner took him on an adventure today to Hurstbridge and back on the train.
Unfortunately Tigger decided he wanted more adventure and headed back down the line.
Disaster and much tears at Flinders Street.
Thankfully speaking with lost property who patched through to the station master at Hurstbridge and an alert to train drivers resulted in a happy reunion by Tigger and my son at Flinders Street just now.
The world can be a nice place at times.
Thank you also to Metro Trains!!!!!
SK
OMG. WTF? Having been a silent witness to ‘Relationship Counselling’, it is up there with homeopathy for remedying serious issues.
__________________________________
Depends on the commitment of the people going into the counselling. All parties have to be genuinely committed to making it work AND the counsellor has to be very good. There are very few circumstances where serious domestic violence can be addressed through relationship counselling, although individual parties if committed can progress (either by changing behaviour or coming to terms with leaving the relationship) through personal counselling.
Sgh1969 @ #480 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
Lovely story.
GG,
To be fair, vegans are almost universally pains in the arse.
Sgh1969 @ #479 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
Brilliant. 🙂
Burgey @ #483 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:59 pm
It’s the poetry that peeves me!
Well, Anthony Mundine hasn’t done himself any favours with those anti-vaxx comments.
Bucephalus, wireless internet is terrible. Absolutely terrible. It’s useful for smartphones while you’re out and about and that’s it. Any business or serious home user who has a choice between a wired connection vs a wireless connection would be absolutely nuts to pick wireless. Wired connections are cheaper, infinitely more reliable and have much lower latency. I’d take an old ADSL connection any day over 4G or even 5G, especially if the wireless is being supplied by the ripoff merchants known as Telstra. Paying through the nose for an inferior product is just silly.
Sgh1969
Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
Comment #478
Best wishes to you and your son. 😇
A great story.
TPOF and SK, the general opinion is that there is far too much opportunity for a dominant/aggressive partner to use the counciling for their own purposes to continue the abuse, albeit at a psychological level and hopefully not a physical one( dog forbid). However I believe there is a lazy $10m in the budget to keep Kevin busy.
The reserve Bank have finally twigged there is a problem with income for average Australians.
God bless em.
https://t.co/AHrAkdaC41
“Dis-owning the carbon price – typical Labor right cowardice.”
This.
The Labot Right may as well just join the Liberals, they’re pretty much the same. Or actually a better idea would be for the Labor Left to finally wake up and realise they’re wasting their time in Labor as the Right faction has a stranglehold on the parliamentary party. Just look at how they disregarded the will of the rank and file who voted for the Left faction’s candidate (Albo) and instead installed the right winger Shorten. The Labor Right don’t take the environment seriously.
Unbelievable, they scrap every planning rule to help Packer chuck up his Crown Casino in Barangaroo and now it’s for sale.
Firefox,
I have a friend in Adelaide who uses Wireless and gets +100MB and doesn’t shut up about how good it is.
I’m not convinced there is merit for counselling in domestic violence cases unless there is some form of intervention for the aggressor to get them to a state where they are ready to participate meaningfully in the counselling.
Saw surveyors out on Harris Street this morning opposite the Power House Museum. Glady’s not wasting any time maybe?
Thanks everyone for your comments.
There were tears with my son and the train driver who delivered Tigger to him at Flinders Street.
My son was so thrilled and grateful.
He is hugging Tigger so much on our way home.
I’ve sent emails of thanks to the CEO of Metro Trains with pictures, the Minister for Transport and our local member.
Apparently it’s making the rounds already amongst the staff.
Thank you
“Firefox,
I have a friend in Adelaide who uses Wireless and gets +100MB and doesn’t shut up about how good it is.”
I’m using wireless right now to post this (the NBN doesn’t exist here yet and ADSL has never been available) and let me assure you it’s a royal pain in the bum. Drops out at least twice a day, the bandwidth and latency goes up and down like a yoyo whenever a light breeze blows through the trees (no joke), and it costs me an arm and a leg. It’s better than nothing but I’d love to be able to have a wired landline connection. Used to have ADSL2 back when I lived in Canberra and it was so much better.
I’m a clinical family therapist and I’m telling you right now it would be absolutely contraindicated to do counselling with the couple if there is a history of family violence, unless there were a lot of other interventions beforehand, and maybe not even then.
I really hate how the COALition are lining up sinecures for their buddies and I wonder how on earth Labor can unwind some if not all of this.
‘New Republic says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 7:17 pm
I’m not convinced there is merit for counselling in domestic violence cases unless there is some form of intervention for the aggressor to get them to a state where they are ready to participate meaningfully in the counselling.’
Yep.
Socrates
Just sayin I agree with your points on the trucking industry, its subsidies & the damage it causes.
Locally, from what I can see, Viterra’s forsaken rail for road on the Eyre Peninsula. It’s cheaper, they say. For them. Not for taxpayers funding the roads, I should think.