Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. As others say, First Dog might be onto something there
    @firstdogonmoon
    If I was Getup I would send a great many Captain Getups to Warringah to tell people good things about Getup it would confuse the fuck out of everyone and Getup would get a lot of publicity and Tony would look like a massive idiot because he is one. You’re welcome Getup.

  2. Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    I hope they continue on with this theme – we could get a whole Justice League of Advance Australia – Captain GetUp, Privatisation Man, Captain Franking Credits, Wonder Womb. It’s a rich vein

  3. ‘ Would we prefer to have a society that still had slavery, infanticide, and denied basic rights to women?’

    What, Christian societies a hundred years ago?

  4. Jaeger @ #555 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    I hope they continue on with this theme – we could get a whole Justice League of Advance Australia – Captain GetUp, Privatisation Man, Captain Franking Credits, Wonder Womb. It’s a rich vein

    Don’t forget Western Civilisation Man.

  5. Daniel B @ #542 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:09 pm

    Grimace & others re religious belief causing harm…

    “Greater love has no one than this: to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.” From the gospel of John, Chapter 15 verse 13.

    Who wrote that, please, Dan? Where did you get the idea that it has anything to do with the god that advocated :
    But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded. – Deuteronomy 20:16–17

    Is the ‘Lord your God’, father of Jesus, a schizophrenic, or some sort of weird bipolar psychopath, with occasional lapses into humanist decency?

    Or perhaps, just the mythical invention of a tribe of middle eastern goat herders, who occasionally talked to burning bushes?

  6. Coalition hits bottom of barrel with fake news campaign against electric cars

    Bottom of the barrel? They dug through that ages ago. They’re down lower than Gwalia now and still digging

  7. ratsak @ #561 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:36 pm

    Coalition hits bottom of barrel with fake news campaign against electric cars

    Bottom of the barrel? They dug through that ages ago. They’re down lower than Gwalia now and still digging

    Shark Shite man dwells at the bottom of the ocean and you can’t get much lower than that

  8. Did you notice that as soon as LNP is in trouble and we started discussing about it, out pops Rex discussing how bad is ALP on Newstart and Adani although it was LNP government who implemented them.

  9. “Did you notice that as soon as LNP is in trouble and we started discussing about it, out pops Rex discussing how bad is ALP on Newstart and Adani although it was LNP government who implemented them”
    Rex and Nath have become so desperate of late, they seem to have blown their covers.

  10. Matt Burke
    @mattburke

    CG: I am Captain GetUp, the truth crusader!

    PUNTER: so you’re from GetUp?

    CG: er, no.

    PUNTER: So why are you called Captain GetUp?

    CG: give me 3 more minutes and I will explain!

  11. Today was NBN switchover day and of course, what happens? No internet connection. They are now having to send us a new modem in the hopes that that works.

    Hopeless.

  12. Rex is very set in his views.

    Nath is a shit stirrer.

    The tinfoil hat brigade let their views continue for longer than they should.

    Unfortunately the hat brigade also help detract from what a lovely blog this should be.

  13. And of course our old ADSL modem no longer works, so have to connect to internet via mobile hotspot on the phone.

  14. Sohar says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 7:20 pm
    As others say, First Dog might be onto something there
    @firstdogonmoon
    If I was Getup I would send a great many Captain Getups to Warringah to tell people good things about Getup it would confuse the fuck out of everyone and Getup would get a lot of publicity and Tony would look like a massive idiot because he is one. You’re welcome Getup.

    Forgive my ignorance, but why would that RW group send “Captain GetUp!” to Warringah to tell people to vote for Abbott? Surely people would easily see through that deception?

  15. Adani should have been sent packing years ago:

    “Bear in mind that the LNP are doing this for a project that in the scaled-down form will deliver just 1500 jobs — at least according to Adani. “

    “The Carmichael project itself also represents the characteristics of modern economic policy that so alienate voters. Adani is mired in multiple corruption scandals around the world and is a prominent tax dodger. It has had privileged access to Australia’s Prime Minister. It has repeatedly breached licence conditions for its existing Abbot Point facility. The Commonwealth’s superannuation corporation has dumped its stake in the company out of governance concerns.”

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/04/09/years-of-coalition-failure-behind-adani-panic/ ($)

  16. Slow evening on PB…so I’ve taken the liberty of grabbing a bit of WB’s bludger track graph.

    If the “trend is your friend” and you extrapolate the blue line to the right, at what point does it cross 50%? When I do that using crude drawing tools the answer I get is mid December this year. Is this what motivates Morrison? The longer he has the closer he gets. Every week he gets closer.

    Which brings me to the real question. When are the next polls due?

  17. “…If they were in government.

    …Which they never will be.”

    (Except for being in the current ACT Greens/Labor government where ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury is a minister. Or all those other times the Greens have been part of governments, such as the 2010 Bandt/Gillard/Ind gov.)

    It’s amazing how quickly Labor will come running to the Greens when they need them and how equally quickly they forget about doing it afterwards… It’s a shame too. All Greens and Labor supporters should be proud of the work they were able to do together in those governments. The current ACT Greens/Labor gov is a shining example of what a good government looks like and is easily the most progressive administration in the entire country.

  18. lovely blog

    Those two words dont look right together.
    But we are all a lovely bunch of coconuts… once you get to know us.

    So come on in and follow me follow, down to the hollow, and there we will wallow in glorious… mud.

  19. Simon² Katich® @ #583 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    lovely blog

    Those two words dont look right together.
    But we are all a lovely bunch of coconuts… once you get to know us.

    So come on in and follow me follow, down to the hollow, and there we will wallow in glorious… mud.

    That’s Bohemian Rhapsody, isn’t it?

  20. “lovely blog”

    There may be some truly rusted on Labor types here who obviously dislike the Greens, but at least everyone stays pretty civil on here. The lack of far right conservative nutters on here is definitely a big plus.

  21. Troy BramstonVerified account@TroyBramston

    Advance Australia unveiling a novelty ‘superhero’ to tell the ‘truth’ about GetUp! is one of the dumbest ideas I’ve seen in politics – I’m no GetUp! fan but conservatives have no idea how to campaign against ALP, Greens, unions, GetUp! @australian #auspol

  22. C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 8:16 pm
    jenauthor @ #566 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:44 pm
    Ven – and Wayne
    And nath earlier on today when Dutton was dropped in it by Turnbull.
    _______________________
    I explained that I want Dutton to be guilty. But you and some others post constantly about stuff that’s going no where. How many times has Trump been charged on here. Briefly suggested that he was going to be executed by firing squad for treason by now.

  23. The Liberals have 50+ ads up and running on Facebook at the moment, all targeting different aspects of Labor’s so-called ‘tax agenda’. Labor has about 5 ads up. With the ability to hyper-target ads to different demographic niches, interests, and key marginals it’s a pretty clever move on part of the Libs. Labor needs to be quick off the mark here to match them.

  24. Again the 7.30 coverage of superannuation was meaningless tripe – and again, why the hell Costello?

    The issue of multiple accounts (not on the same platform so multiple Fund Managers by choice) leading to multiple Life Insurance policies all resulting in premiums is one issue

    Simply superannuation and Life Insurance should be decoupled – noting the Australian Fund Managers significantly were Insurance Companies

    So if you want Life Insurance Cover you go to a Life Insurance Company

    Not a Fund Manager (so the likes of MLC, AMP, CFS, NML and the rest who were Life Insurance Companies have to decide if they are Life Insurance Companies or Fund Managers

    In offloading One Path, ANZ have sold the Insurance business to Zurich (which also acts as a Fund Manager) and is still trying to sell the Fund Management business to the damaged IOOF

    So Zurich have a problem in my view – because cross selling pressures spawn their own problems not in the consumers interests (as Hayne confirmed)

    But fees

    You can only speak for yourself but I am charged 1.2% PA based on the aggregate amount under management – and I would understand that the Management Fee is similarly charged across the industry (so the more you have the more you pay – why?)

    This is the Management Fee not the Advisor Fee

    So, if anyone has multiple accounts not on the one platform you are paying the same management fee, surely as you would be if the Fund Mangers were on a platform

    So calculated on an individual basis – and the same cost as if aggregated

    The Balance dictates the Management Fee

    In regards fees eating up the balance I do not understand such a blanket comment because given a Management Fee of (even) 3% the market performance (absent market events such as the GFC and Stock Market crashes so 1974, 1987 and 2008) exceeds 3% PA, including dividends and interest

    So there is another factor at play – Life Insurance premiums which would need to be excessive, surely?

    So a lot of words on 7.30 but windy look at me rhetoric filling time not analysing

    The likes of CBus invest in construction (say residential complexes then sale so not reflective per se of Equity Markets and Bond Yields et al)

    So again, explanations were poor – which is confirmed by Costello being on the program saying what exactly?

  25. Red13 @ #511 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Been a bigger than normal news day.
    Am told that Minister Price approved the Adani environmental plan today without reference to the PM that she was going to do so today.
    Morrison is absolutely ropeable, his situation in both Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney has just worsened considerably, and he has Price to thank for it.
    Not happy Jan!!!!

    It’s about time she did something useful- now Scomo is wondering how much furniture that announcement cost him outside of regional Queensland. Too funny.

  26. It’s also funny seeing the gatekeepers of impropriety go after Dutton for a 20k donation when Shorten was brining in millions from companies to the AWU in a clear case of conflict of interest.

  27. That’s Bohemian Rhapsody, isn’t it? – – –
    I am sure I heard it in Sunday School.

    Or maybe I learnt it in primary school religion class… only I chose non-religious because I couldnt decide between Orthodox and Uniting (or whatever it was called back then) and we just sang songs and played games of bunny ears and pass the ice.

    Or was that Intervarsity?

  28. How Australia’s coal madness led to Adani
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/april/1554037200/james-bradley/how-australia-s-coal-madness-led-adani

    A very extensive and sometimes searing review of the Galilee Basin and Adani saga and how contemporary Australia has got to where we are, and where we may be in the future, in a warming world

    Uncomfortable reading for some no doubt due to the role played by leaders of both the major parties, from state and federal levels, in getting us to here over the last 15 yrs or so

    Anything other than keeping all the coal in the ground at Galilee basin seems impossible to sustain
    Stopping Adani coal is something many Australians support and is only growing as a proportion

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