Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Simon² Katich® @ #455 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 4:54 pm

    I am no ad-man but I reckon the ALP should focus on the myth of Libs being strong economic managers. The Kouk has given them a lead with his research suggesting 3/4s of Howards surplus was from selling government assets – assets that, ofcourse, can not be sold again. The reason I think this will work is that most peeps recognise that selling the off these assets has had bad consequences – think Telstra. Think energy transmission.

    The $96 billion “Labor debt” inherited by the Howard Government in 1996 comprised $39.9 billion of Fraser Government debt that carried through the Hawke/Keating period meaning that the true level of Labor debt in 1996 was $56 billion. To pay that $56 billion off, the Howard Government sold almost $72 billion of Government assets meaning the move to negative net debt was not really due to any miraculous and bold fiscal settings, but owed everything to a series of asset sales.

    http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2095-more-facts-behind-the-howard-governments-debt-elimination

    The vandals just sold the Customs House at Circular Quay (having recently flogged the GPO to the Singaporeans). However, in a big middle finger to the lot of them, it was bought by ……drum roll …. Clover Moore’s City of Sydney.

    https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/sydney-council-finally-own-customs-house

    What’s that line about ‘ the cost of everything and the value of nothing’.

  2. Sceptic @ #496 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    Rex
    Fark give Adani a rest
    A few coal mines more or less makes bugger all difference.
    What matters is how much gets burnt, not which hole it comes out of.

    If the Adani hole meets legal & environmental conditions let the idiots that lose their money financing it worry about the rest.

    oh the logic of that last sentence 😆

  3. Pegasus @ #497 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/more-myths-about-migrants-and-work

    Former NSW opposition leader Michael Daley was much maligned for his remarks that ‘Sydney’s young children [are] being replaced by young people from typically Asia with PhDs’. The statement is symptomatic of a larger issue, reflecting the extent to which the community is misinformed and misled about these issues. The Australian job market is not favourable to Australian people of colour, much less ‘young people from Asia’.
    :::
    Migration to Australia is a complex, expensive and lengthy process. Factors such as education, experience, financial standing and age are redundant in the face of tough restrictions in a points based system. Ultimately, statements such as those made by Daley further ostracise a body of people that already faces numerous structural and institutional limitations.

    Now you even lose the commentary of what it’s relevant to. So sad!

  4. Burgey @12:34
    I remember my first day of my first job after graduating. I was taken out to Cribb Island at the mouth of the Brisbane River. Now all under the aforementioned airport. The local bus driver had divined the oil that should be underground, and my job was to report on t he material that was brought up from 30 metres depth. Mangrove swamp sediments – and no oil – so I learned about well-logging. The lift driver (remember those?) commented – the *rsehole of Brisbane! Fair enough, the sewage outfall was nearby.

  5. sustainable future @ #491 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    Thanks Boer

    the upside is that part of the greens electoral stasis/decline is that labor and the mainstream are moving to the left (after decades of moving to the right), so the greens seem less necessary. I suspect the greens vote will be down at the next election, but if they don’t implode or do something stupid (such as making SHY leader) their vote will grow during the 2-3 terms of of labor government ahead (unless the RWNJs of rhe illiberal party get wiped at the election and the moderates can bring the party back to the centre).

    Labor ‘moving to the left’ …???

  6. There is some Advance Australia anti-GetUp mails out supposedly floating around in Warringah. Will try to find an example

  7. Shellbell

    Adjourn it off for further mention to a date when you know you can book your annual leave.

    Or, sound off a few mild warnings, without follow up, and at the appropriate opportunity when they drop a clanger and abuse each other, cite them both for contempt and impose an indeterminate sentence of incarceration until they purge the contempt.

    With those two, that may take a considerable while …..

  8. Been a bigger than normal news day.
    Am told that Minister Price approved the Adani environmental plan today without reference to the PM that she was going to do so today.
    Morrison is absolutely ropeable, his situation in both Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney has just worsened considerably, and he has Price to thank for it.
    Not happy Jan!!!!

  9. Red13
    I am sceptical about the notion that Price would have moved without Morrison knowing.
    At the very least her Office would have been in contact with the PMO.

  10. “Labor ‘moving to the left’ …???”

    Yep.

    We will see what happens when they are in government, but they’re a long way to the left of keating on a range of issues.

  11. Greensborough Growler @ #494 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Astrobleme @ #493 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    Peg

    “I was thinking of replying in much the same way but resisted lol”
    Boerwar and GG are old men, and only understand forceful contact. They’re old school bullies, there’s no point in being subtle calling out their crap.

    Astro reverts to bullying behaviour to deny legitimate conversation.

    Let’s have a legitimate conversation about $100M subs… or CFMMEU insisting Labor fall in behind the Adani coal mine …or Labors support of the asylum seeker torture interments …or Labors super duper tax cuts and super duper surpluses while Newstart battlers are ignored.

  12. Not sure that Labor is as smart as many here think.

    Steve Georganas is appealing for people to join his campaign in his new seat of Adelaide.

    Labor chose its candidate in Sturt months ago but the newly selected Lib is the first to have a pamphlet in letter-boxes.

    Not that it matters. The potential loss of imputation credits will no doubt doom Labor’s hopes in Boothby and Sturt.

  13. sustainable future @ #512 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    “Labor ‘moving to the left’ …???”

    Yep.

    We will see what happens when they are in government, but they’re a long way to the left of keating on a range of issues.

    There’s plenty of evidence they’re entrenched in the centre-right neo-lib sphere.

  14. Red13 @ #511 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Been a bigger than normal news day.
    Am told that Minister Price approved the Adani environmental plan today without reference to the PM that she was going to do so today.
    Morrison is absolutely ropeable, his situation in both Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney has just worsened considerably, and he has Price to thank for it.
    Not happy Jan!!!!

    Must be ‘Gods’ will 🙂

  15. Red13 @ #510 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Been a bigger than normal news day.
    Am told that Minister Price approved the Adani environmental plan today without reference to the PM that she was going to do so today.
    Morrison is absolutely ropeable, his situation in both Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney has just worsened considerably, and he has Price to thank for it.
    Not happy Jan!!!!

    Adani thermal coal is virtually a bipartisan thumbsup.

    Boerwar @ #519 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    Why is it that the Greens Neggers who want to destroy the ADF don’t wan to talk about that?

    Justify $100B spend on submarines, Boerwar. Go !

  16. How’s the Smear bucket going now, China?

    By Nick McKenzie
    April 9, 2019 — 5.46pm
    Former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane asked Peter Dutton to consider a request from Chinese Communist Party-aligned billionaire Huang Xiangmo for special citizenship treatment just prior to Mr Dutton approving the request.

    The revelation that the former Liberal director was involved in the controversial citizenship process for Mr Huang’s family in early 2015 comes as the scandal involving the Chinese property developer has widened to include defence minister Christopher Pyne.

    The Age and Sydney Morning Herald has confirmed that Mr Huang, a major political donor, paid tens of thousands of dollars to a former Liberal minister turned lobbyist, Santo Santoro, and secured a meeting with Mr Pyne.

    Mr Pyne’s spokesman confirmed on Tuesday that the meeting took place, but would not say when, and insisted it was “in the normal course of his work”.

    “It was an introductory meeting. Mr Huang made no requests of the Minister and he has not seen or spoken to Mr Huang since,” the spokesman said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-donor-had-help-from-liberal-party-director-met-christopher-pyne-20190409-p51cca.html

  17. AFR –

    Turnbull comes after Morrison

    Another big tick for the Labor campaign on Coalition division and disunity, another big cross for the Coalition’s hopes of holding crucial seats.

    Here we go again. Scott Morrison might have banked on having a week of clearer air – or at least not such toxic air – in order to promote the Coalition budget. Instead, he got a destructive replay of Coalition culture wars to poison his pre-election campaign sell.

    There’s no escaping Malcolm Turnbull’s permanent fury at Peter Dutton’s betrayal, both personally and politically, of his prime ministership last August.

    But eight months on, Turnbull is also taking clear aim at his successor by declaring Scott Morrison had to deal with the Home Affairs Minister as a matter of urgency.

    “There is a lot of government advertising on at the moment and most of it is not particularly compelling,” Turnbull said in another unkind verbal sally against his former colleagues.

    Perhaps that is also because the ads can’t compete with the daily drama of political reality TV.

    https://www.afr.com/news/turnbull-comes-after-morrison-20190409-p51chi

  18. So accumulating private debt leads to asset price falls, bankruptcies and job losses

    When the domestic private sector AS A WHOLE runs deficits year after year after year, that can only occur if the private sector AS A WHOLE is becoming increasingly indebted. It cannot continue indefinitely without causing asset price falls, bankruptcies, and job losses. Eventually, a significant number of borrowers won’t have enough income to service their debts.

    The Howard Government fiscal surpluses were reckless because they were combined with current account deficits. A fiscal surplus is a net demand drain out of the domestic private sector. A current account deficit is a net demand drain out of the domestic private sector. The only reason why Australia avoided asset price falls, widespread bankruptcies, and job losses in 2009 was because the federal government ran large deficits that were larger than the current account deficits and that enabled the domestic private sector to deleverage.

    It is stupid to associate fiscal surpluses with good economic policy. Whether a fiscal surplus is consistent with good economic policy depends on what is happening with the current account. If the nation is running a current account surplus, and the government fiscal surplus is smaller than the current account surplus, then the domestic private sector is able to net accumulate financial wealth. In that context, a fiscal surplus can be fine.

    But for a nation that typically runs current account deficits with regard to the rest of the world, the currency issuer ought to be running fiscal deficits. The relevant question is what size should the fiscal deficits be. You know the deficit is the right size if the unemployment rate is 1 or 2 percent and there is zero under-employment and zero hidden unemployment. You know the deficit is too small if the unemployment numbers are higher than those. You know the deficit is too large if there is accelerating inflation.

  19. sprocket_ @ #524 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    How’s the Smear bucket going now, China?

    By Nick McKenzie
    April 9, 2019 — 5.46pm
    Former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane asked Peter Dutton to consider a request from Chinese Communist Party-aligned billionaire Huang Xiangmo for special citizenship treatment just prior to Mr Dutton approving the request.

    The revelation that the former Liberal director was involved in the controversial citizenship process for Mr Huang’s family in early 2015 comes as the scandal involving the Chinese property developer has widened to include defence minister Christopher Pyne.

    The Age and Sydney Morning Herald has confirmed that Mr Huang, a major political donor, paid tens of thousands of dollars to a former Liberal minister turned lobbyist, Santo Santoro, and secured a meeting with Mr Pyne.

    Mr Pyne’s spokesman confirmed on Tuesday that the meeting took place, but would not say when, and insisted it was “in the normal course of his work”.

    “It was an introductory meeting. Mr Huang made no requests of the Minister and he has not seen or spoken to Mr Huang since,” the spokesman said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-donor-had-help-from-liberal-party-director-met-christopher-pyne-20190409-p51cca.html

    Loughnane is , of course, Mr Peta Credlin!

  20. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 6:21 pm
    Who is this Carter Liberal apologist person on the Drum?

    ________________________________-

    You mean Kylar Loussikian, a Fairfax journalist?

  21. sprocket_ @ #523 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    How’s the Smear bucket going now, China?

    By Nick McKenzie
    April 9, 2019 — 5.46pm
    Former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane asked Peter Dutton to consider a request from Chinese Communist Party-aligned billionaire Huang Xiangmo for special citizenship treatment just prior to Mr Dutton approving the request.

    The revelation that the former Liberal director was involved in the controversial citizenship process for Mr Huang’s family in early 2015 comes as the scandal involving the Chinese property developer has widened to include defence minister Christopher Pyne.

    The Age and Sydney Morning Herald has confirmed that Mr Huang, a major political donor, paid tens of thousands of dollars to a former Liberal minister turned lobbyist, Santo Santoro, and secured a meeting with Mr Pyne.

    Mr Pyne’s spokesman confirmed on Tuesday that the meeting took place, but would not say when, and insisted it was “in the normal course of his work”.

    “It was an introductory meeting. Mr Huang made no requests of the Minister and he has not seen or spoken to Mr Huang since,” the spokesman said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-donor-had-help-from-liberal-party-director-met-christopher-pyne-20190409-p51cca.html

    Shanghai Sam has some company in the sin bin…

  22. Mr Pyne’s spokesman confirmed on Tuesday that the meeting took place, but would not say when, and insisted it was “in the normal course of his work”.
    ___________________________-

    Of course, behaviour that looks corrupt would be in the normal course of the work of your typical Liberal Minister.

  23. Will Bowen will get a Q&A to himself next week?

    It would be good to get him to explain why he wants fiscal surpluses when our nation runs current account deficits and the household sector’s gross debt is already at 120 percent of GDP, which is the highest it has ever been. Bowen advocates fiscal policy that will worsen household debt. Bowen and the LNP are on a unity ticket of inflicting financial fragility on the domestic private sector.

  24. The Toorak Toff @ #513 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    Not sure that Labor is as smart as many here think.

    Steve Georganas is appealing for people to join his campaign in his new seat of Adelaide.

    Labor chose its candidate in Sturt months ago but the newly selected Lib is the first to have a pamphlet in letter-boxes.

    Not that it matters. The potential loss of imputation credits will no doubt doom Labor’s hopes in Boothby and Sturt.

    I imagine it was a short pamphlet. Simply stated: Your greed is good for you.

  25. In breaking news, Scott Morrison has proclaimed that we will decide the car you use and the big swinging donk that drives them!

  26. Peg might know where what is left of the Greens are going to get $400 billion a year.
    Surely there must be something to cut and paste?

  27. Grimace & others re religious belief causing harm…

    I can’t speak for other faiths which are in fundamental opposition to mine, but I’d much rather live in a society built on Christian values than one that attempts to suppress religious belief. Eg. Stalinist Russia, PRC, North Korea. I will concede much evil has been done by people in the name of religious belief, but also much good. Would we prefer to have a society that still had slavery, infanticide, and denied basic rights to women? I respect your right to your own belief system; I hope you’ll respect my right to follow a God who tells me to love my neighbour as myself, even unto death. “Greater love has no one than this: to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.” From the gospel of John, Chapter 15 verse 13.

  28. David Marler

    @Qldaah
    Following Following @Qldaah
    More
    Captain GetUp. “It’s still unclear what his backstory is. But we can safely say he wasn’t created from a science experiment gone wrong, because conservatives don’t believe in science.” #ausvotes

  29. Among the asset sales by Howard including airports plus everything not nailed down was the sale of the repatriation of our War dead – and the Company that was sold to promptly lost bodies

    Remember?

  30. My boy Sam Crosby just profiled on ABC news, though I’m annoyed they said he was a former labor staffer rather than head of the McKell Institute (his most recent position).

  31. Aren’t ” slavery, infanticide, and denied basic rights to women” a common theme throughout the Christain bible?
    Slavery was definitely core to that Christian bastion of Southern USA till 1864…

  32. David Crowe at the SMH on the absurdity of the scare campaign on electric cars:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-fear-campaign-about-electric-cars-has-hit-a-new-level-of-utter-shamelessness-20190409-p51ch8.html

    Good to see this egregious nonsense being called out, even if Crowe’s guilty of a bit of same-same.

    Utegate 2?

    P.S. While Labor had no intention of taking anyone’s ute, I believe that the Coalition will, given the chance, gradually wind Medicare back and replace it with private insurance, given the chance. That’s what the freeze is about, that’s what the co-payment was about.

  33. My fiancé was just poked by Ucoms, we’re in Boothby. Just voting intensions, how did you vote last time and a list of issues from which she had to pick the one that concerned her most.

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