Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.
Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).
The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.
UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.
The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.
On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.
Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
C@t, you’d go for Bill over Albo on a stormy night stuck in the rain?
Stalin looked hot when he was young too. Just saying.
Mmm, so newspoll may not have smoothed its result this time around. I wonder why.
With the talk about bookies earlier I had a look at Ladbrokes which had a market on all lower house seats. A few numbers…
Favourites in each seat by Party
ALP 92
L/NP 54/55 (Indi has Libs and Ind at $2 each)
Ind 1-2 (Oakeshott + dead heat in Indi)
Grn 1
KAP 1
CA 1
If it was the election result, a Labor majority of 33 and the largest share of Labor lower house seats since 1943.
Labor are favourites in the following Coalition held seats;
NSW: Reid, Page, Banks, Robertson, Gilmore
Vic: Flinders, Deakin, Casey, Chisholm, La Trobe, Corangamite
Qld: Brisbane, Bonner, Dawson, Dickson, Petrie, Flynn, Capricornia, Forde
WA: Pearce, Swan, Hasluck
SA: Boothby
AB
Because its been 4 weeks?
labor’s not gonna win Flinders.
Isle – I’d happily settle with half those seats so long as it was a labor majority.
Thanks Isle Of Rocks
A large portion of my expected winnings from Bet365 & Sportsbet is going towards lower house count for the Coalition, not Labor, as I expect to Libs to lose seats to Independents rather than Labor, so easier to guess Coalition result than Labor.
Interesting non-major party seat odds. All second favourites unless otherwise stated
Greens
Brisbane $5 (3rd fav)
Macnamara (Melbourne Ports) $7.5 (3rd fav)
Higgins $8 (3rd fav)
Grayndler $10
Ryan $11 (3rd fav)
Sydney $12
Kooyong $15 (3rd fav)
Griffith $17 (3rd fav)
Cooper (Batman) $21 (3rd fav)
Independents
Indi $2
Warringah $2.1
Farrer $2.25
Wentworth $2.3
Mallee $3
Chisholm $6 (3rd fav)
Flinders $8 (3rd fav)
Gilmore $12 (3rd fav)
Shooters Fishers and Farmers
Calare $3.25
Centre Alliance
Spence (Wakefield) $13
One Nation
Capricornia $21 (3rd fav)
Maranoa $23
Another Minority ALP Government is on the cards.
It has often been said that a side needs a PV of 40 or better to govern in their own right. LNP aren’t going to get that and the ALP might miss it too.
The media stories in the past few days look hilarious when you think about it.
The ‘certain’ prognostications look a little silly within a few hours
That’s the kind of stupid thing you would do Rex, because you have no idea of how politics actually works.
Melissa Parke to run as Labor’s candidate in Curtin, says The West.
https://twitter.com/AnthDeCeglie/status/1114859191775051778
Bucephalus … I wonder whether that old ‘must have over 40%’ maxim is no longer applicable.
That might have been true when there was rarely more than one or two indies … now we’re looking a 7, which means that each electorate has ‘spread the vote’ wider and perhaps we need to revise that down to around 45/46%???
I’d be interested to hear William or Kevin’s thoughts on that.
WB
better than the last Melissa.
The electorate just doesn’t like Shorten, it’s clear now. A month out from the 2007 election, Rudd was 57-43 ahead on Newspoll, Shorten on the other hand is only 52-48 ahead on Newspoll a month out from this year’s election, he won’t win. PM Morrison will win, the Coalition I predict will gain Lindsay, Herbert and Braddon from Labor and also get back Indi with McGowan now retiring.
They can’t both lose.
Bree
Dreamin!!
I think the 40% still holds for the Coalition but because of the Green primary and preference Labor only needs mid to high 30’s in my estimations.
Qualify the above while the Coalition primary remains below 40.
I thought we were talking primaries, William
I repeat
The start point is that the last Federal election was near as to 50/50, resulting in a 1 seat majority
That majority has been since lost – and that is before we get to the impact of distributions and nominal Labor seats as a result
If any significance is to be attached to this polling, it is that it reflects a 2% National 2PP movement to Labor hence the expectation that the Coalition will find it difficult to take any seats off Labor nationally
We also know the Coalition have the majority of MP’s from both Queensland and WA
So what is the polling showing in these States and are any Coalition seats at risk – because if they lose just a handful of seats Nationally we have a change of government (allowing for all the Independents bar Wilkie and the Green supporting the Coalition and government being formed by a Party with a minority of seats versus the alternate Party of government)
Then we get to Victoria and the particulars problems of the Coalition in Victoria where all indications are that the last State poll numbers will be replicated)
Hence the need to drill down looking for seats likely to move
In drilling down you could assume that the numbers polled are consistent with the number of seats in any State – so there are more polled in NSW and Victoria being the States returning the greater numbers of MP’s which May give an errant result because the election may be won in Queensland and WA (with Victoria being the cream in the cake if the State numbers are in any way replicated)
The summary therefore is that absent polling showing a movement to the government over and above the result of the last election this dysfunctional government is (correctly) toast
The status quo will not do it for the government
The interesting thing is, given the ALP hold more seats than the Coalition and the likes of Abbott and others have been replaced by Independents, who do the Independents support (given Wilkie and the Green support Labor)
Because the start point says that’s the best outcome the Coalition could hope for absent a swing to them – and this polling continues to tell us that swing is not on
I’m a bit confused by your initial comment, Jen. Sometimes journalists/political insiders/bullshit artists say things like “we/they can’t win with a primary vote below 40%”, and I thought that’s what you were referring to. But then you said “perhaps we should revise that down to around 45/46%”, which is up rather than down.
“labor’s not gonna win Flinders”
probably not, but the government is going to have to work hard to defend it. Hunt is a marked man because of his direct inaction on climate, his role in taking out turnbull and backing dutton, and just being a slimy weasel and prat in general.
the fact that the betting odds are where they are on a seat like flinders speaks volumes, and suggests many of the other seats are seriously in play. Labor needs only a few to form government.
the only question seems to be whether we have to put up with the ‘government’ for five or six more weeks. has a government ever never won an opinion poll for an entire term before? if so, who and when, and did they will the election after that term?
If the Greens are still up around 9 and the Coalition vote is under 40 also then Labor will win big with 37 or so. The old rules don’t apply with such a big non major vote as the polls are showing. But like our Lord says, they can’t both lose. The minor votes will find their way to a major except in seats where a minor/indie makes the last two.
This election is very likely to see the Labor vote really tank in safe Coalition seats I suspect as a lot of tactical voting sees those votes going to Indies. Especially in the bush, but also in seats like Warringah and Wentworth where a high profile candidate is running. These votes will show up as lost votes for the ALP, but they aren’t gains to the Coalition. The same dynamic probably isn’t going to happen in safe Labor seats. So you’ll see a percent or two of Labor positive vote disappear from their column in the polls but it isn’t making Labor’s job one iota harder.
So from last election’s 50-50 Labor will likely do significantly worse in a good number of safe Coalition seats (which will actually help make them vulnerable), but have gained well in the marginals and their own safe seats. The Government on the other hand has gone backwards everywhere. That will cost them the marginals, and also lose them some otherwise very safe seats.
“Another Minority ALP Government is on the cards.
It has often been said that a side needs a PV of 40 or better to govern in their own right. LNP aren’t going to get that and the ALP might miss it too.”
The 40% rule was applied 20 years ago. As mentioned because Greens polling has raised significantly that Labor can win elections in the high 30’s. The 40’s for Labor these days seem to happen in landslides.
Spikes in polls usually sag back down after a couple weeks and revert back to the regular trend.
The leaders’ jobs include generating confidence that the team can win.
Shorten has been quietly achieving that for years now; Morrison lurches from from one stuff up to the next.
Ipsos poll is another confidence -sapping result, when they were hoping for a post-budget bounce.
But, amazingly, Murdoch’s NewsPoll comes in with a set of results that could be seen (through squinting eyes) as a new dawn.
Have they been fudged, carefully selected then buffed and polished?
We don’t know, but had it been like Ipsos then the LNP party room confidence may have collapsed completely.
A timely result, NewsPoll. Very timely.
Sorry William – I meant 35/36 and only on primaries – though looking closer, if the Greens, ON & Indies take out 20% or more, I guess it still means the winning party will still need around 40% (of the remaining 80%) to win govt in its own right.
So as you were 😆
sustainable future
says:
Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 10:36 pm
“labor’s not gonna win Flinders”
probably not, but the government is going to have to work hard to defend it. Hunt is a marked man because of his direct inaction on climate, his role in taking out turnbull and backing dutton, and just being a slimy weasel and prat in general.
____________________________
I’m hoping Banks or the ALP can win it, but I doubt it. I’m not much of a fan of Hunt, particularly since the reports of his raging temper contrast so nauseatingly with his well-mannered smiling tv persona.
The electorate seems to like neither Shorten nor Morrison.
It seems extraordinary to me that the parties could be so close.
Will the Murdoch onslaught to come be enough to maintain the crooks in office?
I have thought that since the mid 90s the labour movement has lacked clear and different strategic goals from the neo-liberals. It’s why the same-same meme has power.
Well, I think this means Labor can win but only just – which is freakin unbelievable given how fecked this tory mob are – Bill is a drag on the vote but so was Abbott – I knew tory voters who couldn’t stand Abbott – I just hope Bill doesn’t stuff up between now and election day because the margin is slim.
The worst outcome imaginable is that Morrison squeaks over….sweet baby Jesus say it won’t happen……
It won’t happen Mundo
jenauthor @ #307 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:09 pm
I wouldn’t. I want more. I want to see Abbott, Hunt and Frydenberg gone. I want to see Labor regain Melbourne.
The “authenticity factor”, so famously difficult to fake, is politics’ most sought-after quality, particularly in an era where voter distrust is at historic highs. Efforts to appear relatable can so easily look like pandering, but Albanese does, by consensus, have the authenticity thing, whereas Shorten, by consensus, doesn’t.
As former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce told GQ magazine last year: “Albo would be a threat. He would talk to my people.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-shorten-and-the-leadership-question-that-won-t-go-away-20180608-p4zka2.html
Thank you sweet baby Ratsak
With primary votes for the ALP and LNP in the mid 30’s whoever wins the Reps will have trouble in the Senate. Nothing new there perhaps, but perhaps an even larger crossbench to haggle with.
Bucephalus @ #311 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:12 pm
Who says that?
To govern in their own right, a party needs 50% + 1 of the HoR seats.
mundo @ #332 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:49 pm
—
Nothing to see here Mundo. Even at this rate (52-48) Labor gets a handy majority and as William would possibly say follow the trends not the single incidents. I maintain a confidence the 53-47 results three polls in a row with Newspoll is the best indicator of what is to come- I still have Labor on 85 seats.
“Melissa Parke to run as Labor’s candidate in Curtin, says The West.”
In context, a good candidate for that seat.
The ALP are still going to win and win well.
What Ratsack said above is absolutely on the money.
The nervous Nellies here are just too over the top.
Just amazing, this reaction.
No wonder the trolls here have so much fun with you people.
EGW
says:
I want to see Labor regain Melbourne.
______________________
Take that idea for a walk around Carlton, Fitzroy and Collingwood! Good Luck.
“Well, I think this means Labor can win but only just –”
I wouldn’t be going all pessimistic over this poll. Its 52/48 FFS.
The ALP hasn’t yet made any of the announcement they will have saved up for the campaign.
And the Coalition still have plenty of time to fwark themselves up as they are wont to do from time to time.
🙂
Red13 @ #341 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:03 pm
Some do seem to be trolls. Looking at you mundo.
nath @ #342 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:04 pm
People are waking up to the ineffective Greens.
The libs/nats combined primary vote , to retain office needs to be over 43%,it is stuck at 38% the highest peak
It will be a landslide to Labor ,
EGW
says:
Some do seem to be trolls. Looking at you mundo.
____________________________
Mundo. They’re gonna call you a ‘concern troll’ if you don’t clap harder. 🙂
Any one who claims that the libs/nats can make the election close with a combined primary vote sitting at 38%, is trolling
2016 federal election , libs/Nat combined primary vote was
42.6%=76 seats. 38%=55 seats
EGW
Get over yourself.
If you’re not worried that makes me a bit suspicious.
Being concerned doesn’t make me a troll.
It means I’m concerned.
I’m 62 years old and concerned that I’ll spend my twilight years being screwed by a tory government.
Nath
Get forked.
I am going to be mischevious this time around when I’m standing in line at a Cottesloe polling booth and say out loud – I’m voting for Malcolm Turnbull…